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Radiating Dendrite

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Everything posted by Radiating Dendrite

  1. Radiating Dendrite
    4.1c and raining here. Not expecting anything at the moment.
  2. Radiating Dendrite
    Watch the ECM now throw put some stunning synoptics.
  3. Radiating Dendrite
    Not sure why the ECM 12z is being touted as crucial. There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before these cold synoptics get into the reliable time frame.
  4. Radiating Dendrite
    What subjects are your grades in? I got 4 A's (10 years ago now) and would love to have done meteorolgy but did not do the correct subjects. Take your time over the decision because it will be one of the most important you ever make. I ended up studying history and politics which I loved but sometimes wonder if I should have done geology (did this and geography at A level). Good luck - just make sure you pick a good uni and try to get A*s if you can.
  5. Radiating Dendrite
    I think what some people question is if you are going to say you are uncertain in every forecast then why bother doing them at all. Would the resources not be better directed to improving forecasts in the mid range 5 - 8 day period? We have more chance of putting a man on Mars than we do forecasting the weather to any great degree of accuracy beyond 15 - 20 days.
  6. Radiating Dendrite
    It is only a joke, good to have a little lightheartedness in the thread.
  7. Radiating Dendrite
    ECM 0z is all championing the easterly.....three runs in a row now. I don't expect any snow this month, but it is great to see some intent for possible colder conditions from the models after last year. btw the knocker vs. SM battle is a little boring now.
  8. Radiating Dendrite
    Hi - it would help if you entered your location into your profile so that we knew just where "here" is.
  9. Radiating Dendrite
    Nice to wake up to a continuation of good charts this morning. GFS really starting to lock on to this pattern of a strong negative AO now. The consistency even being shown in deep FI is very encouraging, very similar to 2010. Once it locked on to the pattern back then there was very little deviation.
  10. Radiating Dendrite
    -1.9c when stepping out the door at 7am after an overnight low of -2.3c. Coldest temperature recorded since March 2013!!!
  11. Radiating Dendrite
    Wouldn't worry too much about the met office forecast - they hardly have a 100% track record. They have clearly gone with what their model is currently predicting. They have had some shockers in the past; hopefully another one this winter.
  12. Radiating Dendrite
    I agree that there will still be variation but I think a sub -1.5 is a near cert now. Let's be optimistic
  13. Radiating Dendrite
    I doubt they consider the OPI as it's not peer reviewed etc. Going off their past forecasts they tend to lean heavily on the seasonal models.
  14. Radiating Dendrite
    Wow...............wish I lived where you do.
  15. Radiating Dendrite
    Sorry to be pedantic but 3km is 9842 feet.
  16. Radiating Dendrite
    Another encouraging update. I think people need to all relax a little - we aint going to end up at +1.6 like last year and there are many other drivers too. Last winter was as bad as it could get for cold here (not a single snowflake) so anything will be an improvement on that.
  17. Radiating Dendrite
    The OPI is used to predict possible pressure anomalies. A negative value means a stronger chance of high latitude blocking (negative AO).
  18. Radiating Dendrite
    What a beautiful place!
  19. Radiating Dendrite
    Even so, 1990 was also positive.
  20. Radiating Dendrite
    2013 was certainly a shocker! 1991 was also positive but still had a very cold spell which goes to show that a positive value is not complete doom and gloom.
  21. Radiating Dendrite
    Very cold start here this morning. Had a low of 0.7c overnight and was only 2.7c at 9am. Autumn has well and truly arrived!
  22. Radiating Dendrite
    Dry night with a low of 3.0c at 6am this morning. Temperature was 3.6c when I stepped out the door at 7am. Coldest morning of the Autumn so far
  23. Radiating Dendrite
    in a word.....No.
  24. Radiating Dendrite
    I am trying to work out what a turkey has got to do with the arctic ice? Looking odds on now that we will be very near the 2009 / 13 final figures. This winter will be interesting to see if we can get a little bit more ice than previous years. Next year could see us edging back to early naughties figures given the growing multiyear ice of the last couple of years since 2012.
  25. Radiating Dendrite
    Completely agree. I think the coldest we got down to was around -1c which is pretty pathetic. I am in a bit of a frost hollow, we have already been down to 4c since the start of August.
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