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Radiating Dendrite

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Radiating Dendrite last won the day on July 12 2012

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About Radiating Dendrite

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    Winter Slave

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    Male
  • Location
    Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences
    January 1987 / July 2006

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  1. Surely the ECM just over amplifying the azores high? How many ECM Easterlies in the last 5 years have actually happened when shown at 168+. Don't get sucked in.
  2. Bring on summer! At least if you get a downgrade during a hot spell it means only 26c instead of 30c! Hardly a disaster. The problem with snow is it is always so marginal in this country. Warmth and light are beginning to appeal now.
  3. I'd hardly call a yellow met warning for 2-5cm of snow severe and chaotic. There is nothing overly special about this westerly, it has just been hyped up. Yes, the uppers are slightly colder than would normally be the case but the Atlantic will moderate these which is why most areas will still make it above freezing especially outside of any showers.
  4. Yes it is great for Scotland but even a terrible winter will deliver for Scotland. There is a village in the Sahara that has seen more lying snow in the last five years than my location. At least we get good weather in summer I suppose.
  5. I think they are closing in on a consensus of through the north Midlands. The positioning of this low even if a couple of 100 miles different won't significantly impact the upstream. Back to turd polishing again this morning with the models lol.
  6. Doubt it. Once things start to downgrade there is usually no stopping it. It begs the question of why they bother to model past 144 hours - it's always wrong / not anywhere near.
  7. Not sure why people say a certain set of runs will be crucial when they change every 6 hours! People sometimes forget they are a forecast not a certainty.
  8. This is the problem every year. It's called being an Island at the eastern edge of the Atlantic. The easterly is dead (I mean the convective snow bringing type, not a gentle SE breeze). We may see something from a PM source, but I'm dubious of that in all honesty. Living in the SE I clearly need to embrace winter snowfall with an Ethiopian outlook - it simply never happens here!
  9. Another cold rain / slush fest for us in the south. Personally going for the stuck in no man's solution. Think this could resemble feb 12' where Europe went in the freezer but we were 300 miles too far west!
  10. The high is sinking as fast as the titanic now - there is nothing to prop it up over the med or Balkans. Have we not been here a billion times before? Deep trough in the Atlantic, fat saggy high over Europe and us in no man's land inbetween the two. I think some members need to open their eyes a little and stop the turd polishing.
  11. What usually happens is a general blend occurs with the models converging on a middle ground. The GFS does have a habit of picking out the shortwave spoilers ahead of the other models. The ECM has shown us Easterlies in winters gone by (such as last year) and they have simply not happened. I expect there to be too much energy in the northern arm of the jet this time around. The high will likely sink to form a sceuro ridge with low pressure going over the top and heights not low enough in the med to prop it up.
  12. 850s are not really impacted by diurnal temperature changes over a short period of time. I would like to see more widespread -10c 850s though.
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