Radiating Dendrite

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Radiating Dendrite last won the day on July 12 2012

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About Radiating Dendrite

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    Winter Slave
  • Birthday 08/06/86

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    Male
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    Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences
    January 1987 / July 2006

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  1. Personally think the ECM is just over amplifying things again. Look at the ECM and imagine everything 500 miles further south and you probably won't be far off. Surely the issue with any possible easterly is yet again the lack of low heights over southern Europe. We seem stuck in a pattern of the mid latitude high wandering around near us and I think this will continue for the rest of winter.
  2. Yes... but not every easterly ends up like 1991 either. Even if we do end up with an easterly at some point it could quite easily be nothing more than mediocre uppers and drizzle.
  3. Think the references to 1991 that keep cropping up are just straw clutching. If I bake 10 cakes with the exact same ingredients and method they would still come out slightly different everytime and I believe it's the same with the atmosphere. Personally think a spell of Westerlies is likely going forward.
  4. In all fairness though....looking at how much the verification stats chop and change is it not just a case of luck for a particular run latching on to the right pattern. It is like they are all stumbling around in the dark looking for a light switch.....one day the 18z will find it, the next the 12z etc.
  5. To be honest I am already starting to crave a little warmth now and I am looking forward to making a big effort with the garden this year. We moved house mid-July last year, so this if my first chance to start afresh out back! Cannot wait for a few bbq's - snow is fun but warmth is a little more chaser friendly. If a warm spell downgrades from 29c to 25c......so what still plenty warm enough. If a cold spell downgrades from 0c upto 4c then it is a disaster!
  6. Heavy snow in Purley for the last hour. everything covered and roads appalling!
  7. Absolutely chucking it down in Central London and really quite cold in the rain. I think we are in with a good shot later, even now you get a sense that evaporative cooling is already initiating.
  8. Yes, the euro 4 00z is a little disappointing but looking at 850s and thicknesses they actually look a little better and from an earlier time. Personally think now is the time to stop looking at the models and start looking up at the sky!
  9. Not a lot has changed on the Euro 4 12z - very similar to its early run.
  10. It was - still the very latest I can view lol. Hopefully the 12z will be an upgrade.
  11. Yes, ideally we need it to slow up and the heavier pulses come through after sunset. Think it will be a real now casting situation as the margins are so fine but some of the heaviest snowfalls have occurred under marginal conditions - 0.5c could make such a difference!
  12. Just checked the latest Euro 4 charts and it is going to be a fascinating event and actually quite unusual for this past of the country. The precipitation returns are quite impressive, getting on for 30mm in some parts so it will certainly be wet! In terms of snow it is looking like a very quick transition as the distance between the higher theta, 850 and dew point values and lower ones is very little so once it starts to turn it will be a quick transition to snow. Current timings for rain to snow is around 4pm for the NW of London, 5pm for Greater London and 6pm to the SE of the capital and into Kent. Anybody with a little height (150 - 200m) could really hit the jackpot. I wouldn't be surprised to heart of places getting 15cm plus but it is so marginal! The one big positive is it will be heavy precipitation so evaporative cooling should certainly help.
  13. Personally think we will all see falling snow - the big question is whether it sticks and how much. We also have a good chance on Friday morning and given projected temps for next week, anything that falls should stick around for a while.
  14. Think ive just wet myself!
  15. I think there will be some big surprises with this and I am fairly hopeful of seeing a couple of inches. I have seen many of these rain to snow events and believe me once it starts to snow and DP's drop it will readily stick. Poeple moaning about ground temps being too high - we have had a number of frosty days since the start of winter with ground temps staying below freezing all day despite air temps of 3/4c - I think the ground is plenty cold enough now. Finally, if the precipitation is heavy expect falling snow even before upper air temps are conducive for it due to evaporative cooling.