carpo21

One of the best new threads to emerge on NetWeather. Absolutely fascinating to read in conjuction to predicted and actual weather, and more importantly, how it can be used to further our understanding and realisation of more accurate long term forecasting - is there anything else like this on the web? Great stuff, keep it up everyone!

John, I don't post on here much but follow all of the winter threads avidly, and have to say, top banana! It is very refreshing to have an ex-professional forecaster (is this accurate?) actively seeking/researching new methods of predicting weather. I think too many on here dismiss the value in researching what is still, despite super-computer processing and data input, a hit and miss type of science. I read what the likes of Stratos Ferric write, and can't help but think their time would be better spent analysing a science where the variables involved are absolute and irrefutable. Unfortunately, with meteorlogy, you can only really analyse once the weather's been and gone - positive-hindsight? This isn't really conducive to improving the longer term forecasting ability (beyond 3-5 days - 1-2 days for GFS ;o)). You, and other key members of this forum, are really trying to expand the envelope of forecasting - d'you know, I think, collectively, you may all be onto something. Keep pushing the boundaries (and sceptics)!

Fred/Roger, I think your forecasts so far this autumn/winter have been pretty much on the money I think. I'm eager to see if your projections for the remainder of December and early January materialise. I must say that I don't profess to start to understand quite how you come to your forecasts but, (and we'll see come March 2009), whether other sceptics on this forum will give credence to alternative methods of weather forecasting. I sincerely hope you come out with glowing (but perhaps not solar flaringly - they're so 70s!) results, as it will build a stronger case for your (can I say experimental?) but potentially very important work.

Great topic! At the risk of jinxing this current cold spell AND the rest of winter, posting for the first time in a while, (bit superstitious and all that) I am totally enthralled by this winter's weather prospects, and those forecasting on this forum during this most special of seasons. I am relieved to find fellow weather addicts who, for some otherwise unfathomable reason, find particular delight in freezing cold temperatures and more importantly, snow.... !! If I let on the whole truth to my better half that I secretly browse this forum for the hope of a fabled big freeze/snow event, and have, on numerous occasions been caught at work doing same and having to find excuses, then my social/work/private life might come to a sudden and sad end. I've come to think that it isn't us weather-phobes that are the weird ones, but rather those other supposedly normal folk that need talking about.... :lol: ) Anyway, great to see West Is Best banging the "things how they used to be.." drum, and to see Stratos Ferric back, with lying snow, no less (and very little by way of "berification" this time around.... modern winters will never be the same....until next year/month perhaps ;o)

"Today's Manley update has the CET at 5.5C (Dec 1 - 17)" Pretty spectacular drop in 10 or so days from what was exceptional warmth at the beginning of the month. Talk of false or artificial cold dragging CET down is, IMO, humbug (it is Christmas time after all!). Surely we have had these type of synoptics in years gone by, but only the facts remain - that is, the temperature recordings are the temperature recordings, whatever they may be. Very different year this year in terms of both expectation and forecast, long may it continue.