Nick L
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Everything posted by Nick L
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Doesn't need Meteorology knowledge at degree level to tell that is a broken chart! :lol:
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After experiencing that several times I now have a golden rule. Never tell anybody about it until all 3 models are in significant agreement of a wintry spell within 72 hours!
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I reckon that this will end up being a damp squib. When the ECM starts to lower the possibility of a decent wintry spell then 99% of the time the other models will follow. Wouldn't be surprised if the UKMO backtracked tomorrow, leaving the GFS all on its own - something we have seen far too many times in the recent past.
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Agreed! I think it is a case of comparing them to the absolute belters we have had of late causing a bit of a disappointment. If we had 3 days of runs showing blowtorch southwesterlies then these charts would cause a meltdown in here.
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Yeah my bad
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Highly doubt it with these uppers: http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091209;time=18;ext=384;file=tmp850;sess=e1be1fdf878165e6521378946eb4385d; Doesn't matter anyway, far too far away to worry about and we have the small matter of next week's fun and games yet!
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Bit of a battle between mild and cold for Xmas day! Only a bit of fun but if that came off some lucky folk could wake up to a very snowy Dec 25th!
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Yup, that big pool of cold air over Norway heading straight for us! http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091209;time=18;ext=159;file=h850t850eu;sess=3ffa13ecce20263c329bb134011b435b;
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Oh I agree that Ian knows his stuff, and does make some excellent posts (some very recently regarding the cold spell). I just don't agree with the constant use of the modern era to explain pretty much everything and the refusal to accept it might not exist. Anyway, pub run coming up...
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Unsuprisingly he acknowledged the possible event, but stated this is "the best event in the modern era" or some rubbish like that. Check the last page of the previous model thread. If we had an ice age he would still stick by his theory until the bitter end.
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That's nothing, my annual 6th form Christmas football match might be snowed off next Friday I am reffing first half though so I will ensure it goes ahead - even if we have to play it in 6 inches of snow
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WAHEY! I like it He's right you know sufc Anyway, eyes down for the ECM rolling out soon, there is always one model that has to be a party pooper, but let's hope it allows mega ramping to commence...
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Well, 25th Dec would do quite nicely!
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Well I am coming up to your place for our match on Dec 28th, so let's hope not
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Good advice that. Or if you don't know how to read the models use the Netweather forecasts.
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Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->
Nick L replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like a "battleground" to me at the end of the run, potentially a lot of snow from this for those north enough, but those too far south it will be a washout! http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/12/312/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/12/312/h850t850eu.png All in all though, a belter of a run. -
Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->
Nick L replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Add this to your favourites: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/25253-daily-chart-timetable/ -
Edit: Just read your explanation
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I imagine that Helen and Rob McElwee have both been tied to a chair in a dark room until the mild weather resumes!
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When the Metcheck forecasts next update based on the 06z GFS run, I think they will change for the better!
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Wouldn't take much notice of Metcheck's forecasts. They are based solely on the GFS runs and take very little else into account.
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Didn't he get something catastrophically wrong last year regarding a cold spell? I could have sworn he did. But for some form of cold and snowy spell not to occur now it would have to be the biggest model backtrack in internet history, or at the very least be up there with the worst disappointments.
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I'm dreaming, of a whiiiite Christmas.... http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/06/384/uksnowrisk.png I know it is at the darkest depths of FI, but is still fun to look at I hope Copenhagen gets absolutely pasted for the climate change conference, looking forward to the news reports... "Here we are in Copenhagen, where it is -5c, blowing a gale and throwing it down with snow...now onto global warming" :blink:
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Ok that put my fears at rest, only a complete amateur so your comments are appreciated!
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We never seem to get the cold air on this run, a tad worrying?
