Evening thunder

Reached 25.4c here (near Sidmouth, Devon) yesterday which was the warmest of the year so far. Today is cooler with the wind off the sea but is another gorgeous day and in way feels more pleasant than yesterday, with unbroken sunshine and clear visibility, whereas yesterday was very warm and a bit humid with some cloud in the afternoon/evening.

Thought I'd post a collection of video captures from Friday night along with the photos I posted on page 39, taken between Farnborough and Basingstoke. Sometimes 2 or 3 of the images below are from the same strike/flash as they produced various bolts across the sky or I couldn't decide which was best to upload.. Video to come soon hopefully when I find time, if this laptop which is playing up at times allows.

Went on a little chase last night, drove down the M3 towards Basingstoke though didn't get that far (ended up between Farnborough and Basingstoke)I may have been a bit late to see the best show over Reading way but definitely saw a great show, quite frequent flashes on the way, then some good CC and CG lightning including some quite close. Eventually found a place with a reasonable view, I passed a couple that may have been good but seemed to be on the top of a hill and didn't really feel like sitting there with CG's dropping either side of me! You'll see there were still power lines next to me which I was slightly nervous about at first, but I hoped the lightning would have hit them and not me.. I ended up in an area of more moderate rain which kind of made it easier taking photos than torrential rain at least, though they were still taken from the through the car windscreen as I couldn't really get my camera wet and felt safer in the car, so many photos have raindrops in them.. Ideally would have been somewhere dry with a view of the storm but it was all a mess of rain surrounding the heavier cells by then (except perhaps on the eastern side) Lightning often seemed to be to the left or right of camera view.. I remember a couple good bolts in particular, one CC originated in front of me, before travelling behind me and then (I think) becoming a CG some way away flickering many times for a couple seconds). Another also flickered for a second or two with a CG surrounded by CC lightning crawling out in different directions, though not caught on camera unfortunately. Anyway this is anything decent that I managed to catch: (darker as was experimenting with aperture settings) Also have video to analyse at some point, may have a few good stills in it.

Right may be time for me to drive west a bit, or SW down the M3 to get in the path of this.

Just saw a flash out the corner of my eye for it to ping up on lightning maps a second later west of High Wycombe/SE of Oxford

For some reason the ATD has decided not to detect most of the lightning from the Hampshire cell, while Blitzortung shows quite a cluster (and that's probably not all of them too). The Swindon cell also shows more on Blitzortung so maybe it's a general thing with the ATD at the moment. I have noticed it often drops around midnight not picking up many strikes for some reason. I forgot to post but did a chase the other night and caught one of the only cells in the SE near Rye shortly before midnight, mainly sheet lightning by the time I had a chance to stop but every 20-30 seconds for a while and definitely more than both detectors showed, especially the ATD. Wonder if I could see any distant flashes from these cells soon, other cloud around says probably not but lightning can be seen from surprising distances at night given the right conditions, been seen from storms near the Isle of Wight from east Devon before!

That's the plan hopefully. I expect people in this area will have better luck once I've gone home for summer in about a week though, it may be more of a portable shield that follows me.Would be nice to get some night time lightning flashes viewable from here but not getting my hopes too high as may be more of an outside chance. A sheet of darkish and mildly unstable looking mid level cloud has replaced the sunny spells we did have until recently. ATD also shows 2 sefrics SW of Gloucester, and Blitzortung realtime map just picked up another.

Would be interesting if things did pass/develop to the west of London. Maybe the Egham storm shield is weaker when confronted from the north, or won't be expecting it especially at night. On the other hand I've probably just jinxed that possibility.

24.7c back home earlier so the warmest day of the year so far (beating yesterday).Since then it cooled down to about 20c due to a combination of a sea breeze and more cloud cover, though recovered back to 23.1c again.Up here at uni a very warm ~25c again.

Despite pulling the high west a bit most operationals I've seen in recent days do not bring any below average uppers into the south of the UK, and the GFS 06z is the same, keeping maxima in the low 20's for the southern half of the UK even when the northerly drift is present in FI, before things break down from the west instead (coincidentally with lower uppers for the south). Not before a couple very warm days on the 06z at any rate: I thought the ensemble means were more reliable than operationals at these time frames though? Seems we are told to use them and disregard operational runs at times, but for a few it's now the other way round and the ensemble means are largely ignored? The ensemble means are quite clear about lower heights to the NW around Greenland too, for now I will be consistent and continue to pay attention to them and not get too hung up on the detail of operational runs beyond a week or so.

Ensemble means still not particularly keen to retrogress the high to the NW. ECM day 10: GEFS day 10: GEFS Day 15: Edit: I see Summer Sun just covered this

In 2009 I saw decent displays from Devon on the 16th and 17th June, and again on the 13th July. In 2010 I saw them on the 9th July. Haven't really seen so much since then (either missed them or they haven't occurred, or obscured by cloud), though saw a couple faint ones.

In reply to snowking's post, there may actually be convective outbreaks somewhere to liven things up for a day or two, amongst the mostly fine dry warm days (maybe, if there isn't a cap and the GFS isn't overdoing convective precipitation like it often does in these situations). Not gunna complain at that personally Re any North Sea cloud risk for eastern areas, SST's are currently notably above average, by over 3C in places: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2 Though with slightly cooler pools near/by the East coast, also seen on the actual SST map: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2 Not sure how that will effect things, but perhaps there will be less cloud, and it will be more what would normally happen later in the summer with the warmer sea temps, though on the other hand maybe in a NE flow more moisture picked up from the higher anomalies (14-15C) further east could produce more cloud over relatively cooler (13C) pools near the coast? Edit: for some odd reason, I can't get the image on the first link to work from this post despite the fact it's exactly the same URL as does work from by bookmarks? Not sure if it's the same for others but if so use the 2nd link and click 'SST anomaly plot for same region'

From TORRO on Facebook about 25 minutes ago, suggesting 'A pronounced hook on this cell near Doncaster suggests low-level rotation - the risk of strong winds and perhaps a tornado as the cell moves quickly NNE.' https://www.facebook.com/249176491778442/photos/a.265625363466888.81958.249176491778442/858204244208994/?type=1&theater Hopefully the link works for at least those who have facebook, not completely sure though.

That's just high cloud showing on Satellite images over Kent, from decayed storms that were over France

Feeling pretty warm and humid here, and there's no high level stuff now with cumulus bubbling up, some of which off to the NW has gained some decent size and height.

A friend is reporting an impressive shelf cloud looking west from just east of Stafford at the moment.

Despite limited lapse rates a quite strong storm has already managed to get going and sustain itself as we've seen (although of course not as strong as those on the continent).

Looks like the cloud that was coming towards the south is breaking up quite nicely actually, at least away from more southeastern counties. May be good sign for those north of London up towards the Wash and probably other places too

Not too keen on the cloud heading into the south.. also reflected by the Met Office's latest precip and temp maps showing all the decent stuff up north again, as well as the temp now not getting above 21C in the SE... In fact the EURO4 shows temps staying in the teens for many in the SE, but of no sign of the activity it forecast for the SE at T+03 hours... doh!! I could have chased north of London today but looks like that may not happen.. though there are hints of the cloud to the south/SW thinning on the latest satellite frames.. fingers crossed. Probably just a Kent clipper at best tonight. I'm resigned to there being no storms in Egham but it would be nice if other parts of the SE near enough to chase had something decent.. as am prepared to today, and today is the last potential in a while (though all other regions have a risk tomorrow..lol, so the story of this whole spell may continue with the SE the least thundery like many times recently). Nice to see some storms around in other places though, 3 storms in 3 days, can only dream of that.

No worries, and thanks a better way than what I was doing i.e print screening it then cropping it in paint.Seems to have moved of pretty quickly on there though and declined in activity a bit though

Saw that same bolt Kind of like supercell structure on there now.. Or it seemed to for a bit possibly

Can make out flashes every second or two on the Eifel Tower webcam.. Also this webcam only updates every 3 seconds but a reasonable amount of the images are capturing lightning: http://www.meteo-paris.com/ile-de-france/webcam-paris.htmlMust be an amazing show over there, wish I could find a live streaming webcam facing the storm.

Wonder what the chances are tomorrow, despite decent CAPE shown on the GFS I suspect there will be a cap in place too..(though the 06z downgraded CAPE of course). Wonder if there's any chance of thundery stuff clipping Kent tomorrow evening, would be free to drive tomorrow evening if it did look like a decent light show might occur but I guess it will be just too far east and anything tonight into tomorrow will just be rain. That's what the BBC think anyway.Looks like the SE is again going to be stuck in the boring zone between the big continental storms and the potential further north/west in the next few days, before high pressure builds in Wednesday onwards. Certainly doesn't feel like the most thunder prone region of the UK at all, that seems more like northern England into Lincolnshire of course.

I think there's a fair chance of elevated storms later tonight and tomorrow moving north, with lots of ML CAPE, and the BBC/MetO rainfall maps seem to show this (yes I know..) Though just checked the MetO rainfall map, and it has a different take with activity moving north at 1am and then something for those in the SE worried they may miss out Then seems to go for another band of what looks like heavy rain with embedded thundery elements to develop and move north/NNE I've seen these maps verify quite well before, but not every time and this is a change from what it showed before and other other models around so not sure how much to pay attention to it, though does show potential for storms even into the SE tonight.