Evening thunder

Seems to be getting it's act together in the channel now! hopefully it can extend a bit east or if not I may drive a bit west.Odd if there was a strike at Dartmouth, nothing on the radar.. but increasing Altocumulus Castellanus to the south with turrets getting higher.. maybe something just fired. Never a bad sign to see those clouds anyway. The ATD strikes almost over the Met Office (lol) must have been false detections, unless there was lightning without any rain or significant cloud somehow

Hope this aint the start of the eastward shifts from GFS.. was starting to get into a nicely chase-able range for me if not over my area (yes I know..)On the other hand tonight might be looking quite good, loads of lightning further west on the ATD but the ones to the south seem less active (don't let Blitzortung fool you, it detects much less % of lightning from the storms further west). The main cells in the channel are moving more towards Cornwall/west Devon, and the storms over to my south over NW France have mainly died at the moment. Hopefully this chances with more activity into the SW as more CAPE is forecast for here than the storms south of Ireland. Though plenty of time yet.. think I'd be unlucky to see nothing from tonight and the weekend. I have the car if needed..

Low cloud has shifted and 22.1c here, a bit cooler than some today with a slightly onshore wind. Tonight looks warm maybe not below 20C before the wind shifts more southerly in the early hours.Then tomorrow at best low 20's with an onshore breeze here while it hits 32-33C in central eastern/SE areas lolHoping for some thunderstorms tonight though and maybe even the weekend!

Bubbly cloud developing/growing in the northern Bay of Biscay, and looking at Blitzortung the first thunderstorm appears to have formed:http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en Oops, beaten to it.

Fair enough (re-reading my post I hope it didn't seem a bit blunt)I just find these interesting whenever as weather is my personal interest really, though can understand it being less good for those going to weekend events.Hopefully others can understand this interest from many on here too. A week day may be better (though not when at work as can't enjoy it so much then), but with very limited events like this I'd hope this didn't downgrade to nothing, as beggars can't be choosers.

I'm currently thinking Thursday night into Friday may be decent for some.. GFS charts on Netweather only show SBCAPE but Wetterzentrale seems to incorporate ML CAPE: Storms then move north with a risk of surface based developments too: So it's possible IMO that Thursday night into Friday may be the chance (mainly) of more western areas, and Saturday perhaps the turn of more eastern areas. For what it's worth the latest ECM showed precip in travelling up the west side of Britain Thursday night, and some storms or a MCS moving into the south (particularly Dorset) on Saturday morning and moving north: Sat 9am: Sat 12:00 Then some probably convective outbreaks later and in other palces e.g further east, I've just shown the main areas. GFS looks further east for Saturday but ECM other models seem to have led the way with the GFS coming into line so far. Of course the detail will shift around this is just what the GFS/ECM show at the moment.. (This post may seem better (less long) if I could put some of the thumbnails side by side but when copy/pasted in they appear full sized when editing so can't do that.)

I had literally just been looking at that chart in the archives then came here to see it posted! has to be near the top as far as plumes go.. that temp contrast! One of the 50 most intense hailstorms recorded in Britain since 1650 tracked from Start Point (south Devon), to Newton Abbot (Devon) on the 2nd. On the 1st (perhaps in the evening before midnight) another of the 50 most intense hailstorms tracked from Exbridge (Devon) to Tredegar (Gwent) http://www.torro.org.uk/site/50hail.php Presumably that first one must have been from a very intense elevated storm that crossed/formed over the channel. Also on the next chart the 0C isotherm is over SW England and Brittany, so for some a 20C drop in 850hpa temps in 24 hours (22C drop in part of Brittany). Not sure we've quite had that range yet this year.. lol. Funnily enough 9 days later on the 11th this area had severe floods, the largest recorded to date on some rivers by a big margin.

GFS (12z) ensembles show the 850hpa temp staying above averagae throughout for London: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png and the mean had higher pressure building into the UK by T+240 which is maintained through most of the run. Some ensembles showed high pressure centred near the UK like the ECM, and others more changeable or unsettled although often still ridging into the UK at times. Now the GFS 18z has done something not too dissimilar to the ECM op. There does seem a trend this evening that something warm and more settled may return after relatively brief breakdown. Whether it verifies remains to be seen but at the moment the outlook is decent for those who like warm summer weather, or thundery weather.

Being into my weather, I'd rather have the higher temps with more rain/storms combo thanks. Just dry sunny with moderate warmth doesn't leave much for anyone interested in weather, though it's pleasant and I'd happily take it in-between spells with convective weather and storms. We've had a decent supply of moderate warmth and sun this summer thankfully. About time we had something interesting and a traditional '3 fine days and a thunderstorm'.

Reached 24.8c here which is the warmest day so far this month. Sunny intervals generally amongst some decent sized cumulus, towards the end of the afternoon a couple quite large areas of dark based cloud.

Had a brief torrential shower early this afternoon from a very small shower on radar, then afterwards some very large raindrops from a forming updraught. Sine then any intense showers have formed just after passing over or have been west of here. Lightning detected to the SE just too far away to hear. Currently very light rain from a decaying shower, some nice towering cumulus to the east, and can see anvils from the storm near Cardiff to the north.. not bad.Nothing much upwind of here.

I wouldn't read too much into 06z operational FI - yesterday it was showing a heatwave.

Tend to struggle to decide with things like this, will add a picture of convection to the east producing a localised intense shower on the 28th June: Though could add this photo of lightning I took overnight 13th-14th west of Farnborough, but because of the rain drops etc I think I'll nominate the the convection image instead (maybe should have chosen the lightning picture below I don't know)

Heavy/torrential showers keep missing here by about a mile this afternoon with just light or moderate rain at times here, and another one is doing so now Calm winds so in a way a nice a nice atmosphere watching the showers drift by or with rain drops falling gently down earlier.

Was also thinking the showers, and then rain look much more extensive than any of the models predicted (not just the Met Office) the line of heavy showers up the SW peninsula, prolonged in places was forecast, but I don't think the rain behind them and that they are merging into was on the charts much. Although the Met office update at 4am did say 'A dry and bright start to the day for most. However, scattered showers and increasing amounts of cloud will spread steadily eastwards through the day, the showers perhaps heavy and merging into longer spells of rain at times. Maximum Temperature 19 °C.' Had a heavy shower this morning, just had another brief shower and after it I could see heavy rain falling just across the fields, and could make out individual drops in it. This came as close as 50m away with just the odd very large drop landing in the garden.. Gone generally cloudy here now though but that was kind of shown on the charts.

Just had a nice heavy shower give 4.0mm of rain here.

Didn't see any after sunset but some low down here and traces to quite high in the sky now, maybe it will get brighter as dawn approaches.

Interesting how the ECM also seems to have had a wobble then, at least by D10. The GEM link I posted was by D5 though presumably that would mean it wasn't particularly special by day 10 either, though doesn't seem any worse than others on those charts you post. Thinking about it the charts showing the ECM with better verification stats was day 5 and 6, but it seems to loose that advantage by day 10 then based on the above. Interesting if like some suggest the ECM is better with Scandi highs, but not with Scandi lows as suggested by recent outputs at least. Tonight the ECM looks nice but unfortunately towards the end of the run

A fair few showery clouds about though GFS has majorly downgraded it's Cape from two runs previously (was showing up to 1000j/kj slightly to my east yesterday evening, now only 300-400j/kj) I get the feeling this may be a day with the most active showers going to my south as they seem to be now, then tomorrow they will go to my north, but we will see.

I'm not sure how much we should be reading into the GEM really as brought to my attention by Knocker in the model banter thread: I suppose it could have improved again. I'd certainly take the ECM over it any day though, especially as in comparison it still tops the verification stats on average, despite whatever bias it has (I have seen a graph somewhere that showed the GFS has nearly as much 'height bias', whereas the GEM/UKMO were at the other end of the scale with interestingly no models near the centre with neutral bias) The ECM ensembles have been quite consistent with this trend towards day 10 and the op gets there too, though the op seems a bit different compared to other models for this week. GFS ensembles (00z) have trended towards this compared to their previous runs and the mean certainly isn't poor: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png (These will probably update to the 06z ensembles soon) Would this supposed bias always lead to higher pressure predicted over the UK than occurs? what's to say it wouldn't lead to the ECM overdoing high latitude blocking which forces lows further south towards the UK? As you say there seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty around, and perhaps slack pressure patterns.

9.0mm in the manual gauge since the rain started yesterday, the VP2 thought 8.4mm. Then mostly cloudy for much of today though some sun especially early and later, reasonable temperatures peaking at 21.2c. Felt a bit humid still but fresher later when the dew point dropped. Currently 13.1c and mostly clear (some cirrus/cirrostratus), looks to be a cool one tonight.

Doh, missed this unless it was cloudy here early on the 4rd (but seen some great pics from Paignton south of here). Probably more last night looking at reports but clouded out here. Maybe I can see something in the coming nights. Only seen a small patch to the north one early morning, but it wasn't enough to go and take pictures or resist getting back into bed.

Last night was the mildest of the year so far at 15.9c, then a cloudy breezy day here today, the odd bit of brightness and blue sky. Max temp 19.8c, currently 17.2c with bits of drizzly rain. Yesterday was a lovely day, max 23.3c after a cool min of 7.4c here though Exeter Airport recorded 24.9c. Spent the afternoon on a local beach, and sea wasn't too cold either. The SE has had a couple very warm days though there's nothing too unusual about this set up.

Looking at the models, I hope we don't get a summer dominated by an Azores high stuck out to the SW feeding in NW winds, or even ridging into the south at times bringing no other weather of interest except a bit of warmth/sun. Also it may be a waste of above average SST's around here and the positive anomalies may decline away. Most models and ensembles seem to want to show that all the way through.. I suppose if high pressure ridges in enough to allow warmer uppers, it can be pretty nice here and warm, as the south coast is more sheltered. I'd either want that or the trough being close enough/over is to allow slacker winds and thundery showers, please no constant cool NW winds with not much weather.. While conditions could be pleasant if the Azores ridges enough, I'm also a weather enthusiast so want some other interest in weather/temperatures, i.e a continental flow with thunderstorm potential, heatwaves/brief plumes.. this Azores high possibly ridging in a bit seems the most boring way to potentially get pleasant conditions (or the most boring way to not get pleasant conditions) Scandinavia is doing just fine all the way through of course..

Coolest min since the 5th June last night with a min of 7.2c.A good day today with lots of sun, the sun slightly hazier from high level cloud at times but only this evening has the sun mainly gone. A breeze from the coast and 20.2c max felt warm enough. I'm hoping for some convective potential and showers at the weekend like the GFS. Slacker winds and closer to the centre of the low perhaps. Don't want the UKMO that looks to keep more interesting showery potential further NE but we get stronger NW winds instead, and then it is slower to move the low and keeps us with cooler NW winds.