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Evening thunder

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  1. I think Australia's wildfire situation is more serious than a maximum of 9.4C. Although they still wrote a significant article on it. I wonder if increased smog is sometimes causing lower maxima there. Edit: it's Wikipedia but apparently that is suspected to be the case https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delhi#Air_pollution (bottom of first paragraph on air pollution)
  2. Not as bad as feared this week, some brightness yesterday, and today the low cloud has broken up more to give proper sunny spells. Areas more in the lee of high ground had clear blue skies yesterday and it seems much of England has this afternoon. A temp of around 10C and a light breeze so it's quite a pleasant day really.
  3. Well, time for a moan on my part. Looks like my least favourite weather from an interest POV.. cloudy and boring. Maybe slightly better than persistent rain that we've had a lot of. However a unique factor, but as I kitesurf I could usually make the most of mild winter conditions.. You would expect at least a breeze with such mild temps in winter. One reason I wasn't feeling as 'disappointed' with the outlook as I may have in the past. Nope... Not even going to be enough wind down here. Looked like there could have been, but it's going to manage the fine balance between there bein
  4. Forgot to post but had some thunder and lightning on Sunday evening with several flashes and one close CG. Heavy rain and a bit of hail but nearby Sidmouth had the roads go white with hail. 2 evenings of thunder in a row with one loud flash bang and a more distant flash/rumble on Saturday evening. Heavy rain this afternoon, the river is the highest it's been this Autumn/winter.. but still not really flooding, no single large falls in the catchment just very frequent moderate falls of rain. Forecast maps suggested rain coming back in tonight but looking at the radar that's quite far ou
  5. Getting a bit fed up of the weather this Autumn. Lot of dull/damp and coldish days. Nothing much 'interesting', just loads of days with slight/moderate rainfall amounts, and persistent light-moderate rain. On a personal note, I've got into kitesurfing this year and every weekend recently seems to have no/unfavourable wind, despite good conditions most of the week. This weekend, the wind dies about 6am Saturday and comes back 6pm Sunday! We're not even going to get any nice weather to compensate.. just yet another dull/damp day with light-moderate rain. Autumn can be the best time for
  6. Why do BBC forecasts on some days use global model resolution charts even on the regional forecasts? It's like the provider fails to provide more detailed charts sometimes.. I guess you get what you pay for.

  7. -3.2C the overnight low and a nice frost lasted long enough to see it before it got rained on (starting at -1.3C). Cold air layer is still hanging on in the valley here. Just crept above freezing to 0.2C and moderate rain is falling. we've had 1.2mm of rain so everything is wet but with 'wet frost' lingering on some surfaces such as cars and the grass in the fields.
  8. I have kind of liked this Autumn so far from the high pressure and sunny days we had in mid September, and then the contrast to very unsettled conditions with showers and some heavy rain. It felt more like a classic Autumn progression than the 'lingering nothingness' we can seem to get. Days like this weekend with its lingering front and dull weather with light/moderate rain are a bit tedious though. Sunshine amounts are a bit low at times and I think some areas further north have done worse with lingering fronts and persistent rain.
  9. Can't complain about the weather over the last 6 weeks here. Not as great as last year but consistently warm, fairly sunny, and it hasn't rained on many days since the 20th June. 22 consecutive dry days up to the 18th July (last July was wetter with a couple more rain days funnily enough). Only 1 day since the 23rd June didn't reach 20C, and only 3 didn't reach 21C. The average here is only just above 21C. It does look like deteriorating now but at least we had a solid 6 week period here, although perhaps not much in it for the weather enthusiast apart from one elevated storm as the
  10. Yes it can be interesting how it varies across the country. We only had 2 maxima of 25.9C here.. (partly due to the onshore wind and the main heat of the plume going to our east anyway). Since then we've had warm and mostly sunny days here this weekend with maxima of 24.1C yesterday and 23.7C so far today (NW offshore breeze). July has been notably dry so far with 11.4mm of rain and just 2 days with any significant rain.. there was 22 days with none at all to the 17th. Fairly sunny too here. So basically a pleasant summer's month with lots of nice weather but quite homogeneous temps, not
  11. Many of these are personal stations rather than official stations (unless you change the filters). My own AWS uploads to there, it's a bit like the Met Office version of Weather Underground. The consistency with this station over the years doesn't look great.. (linking to where I saw a post on another forum rather than just copying the image) http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121929-temperature-watch-thursday-25th-july-2019-uk-all-time-record-falls-cambridge-botanical-gardens-387c/page__view__findpost__p__1089124  As they say.. doesn't look good around 2008!
  12. Ah well, one day one of these runs that actually bring very hot temps to this part of the country may verify.... rather than just the eastern half of the country as modelled this week, and last summer too in the only plume of 15-20C uppers, and in 2015 when it was 24C here but 36C in London. Also all of the near continent sees record/near record heat again.. while Scandinavia, Shannon in Ireland, Aviemore in Scotland broke records last summer but my hottest days scraped 30C under 13-14C 850s. Not complaining about the great summer but it didn't really match the temps seen in the SW in 76,
  13. Can't really complain from a pleasant weather point of view here. Today will be the 20th consecutive maxima above 20C. Ok it's cloudy this morning and we've had the odd mostly cloudy day but I've averaged 8 hours of sun a day this July so far (probably closer to 9 in reality as my sensor misses early sun).
  14. I guess the problem is that the near-surface air on Thursday isn't coming from the continent. (3pm average wind speed - gusts considerably higher as is the wind speed further above the ground). Only on Friday does it show hints of coming from the continent from southern areas, but that has only been the case for a few hours so it is possibly still air that has entered the English Channel via the North Sea.
  15. Maybe we need to look at this from a different angle. Perhaps the atmospheric temps below 850mb are similar to the examples Quicksilver1989 posted above, but the difference here is the exceptional temperatures advected above this? In the Skew T chart posted by knocker, anywhere below about the 850mb level is included in the 'modified' layer. I guess 1.5km atmosphere may be a lot to warm through one or two days of sun (especially when the brisk E wind means the air will have crossed the UK from west to east in less time than this), when you consider 850mb is a level chosen because it is n
  16. It seems a stronger/deeper undercut of cool air is modelled than sometimes occurs even with an easterly drift. Maybe also the higher 850's above this make the modified layer/inversion more 'robust' to the normal vertical mixing of the atmosphere that results in a more typical temperature profile? I do remember a few examples of lower maxes than the 850's suggest due to modified air bring brought in from the North Sea (e.g. 11th-12th July 2013, I had a max of just 19.3C and 20.9C under uppers of 12C and 15C (although some of that came via onshore wind from the channel)). A bit disappointi
  17. Actually the ECM is similar to the GFS in that it only gives low-mid 20's for most until Saturday when the surface flow slackens off. Before that fresh wind off the N Sea causes a layer of modified air to undercut the 850's which are being drawn up from the SE. Knocker and Man With Beard etc have posted charts about this showing why. Even the ICON shows it: As does the UKMO forecasts. I imagine the AGREPE would if it went beyond 6am. It seems to me that all models that have this surface flow actually agree on this? I expect temps are being under-done by the usual few degrees, so w
  18. Not posted in a while, but we had a bit of thunder and lightning rumbling past us on Monday associated with this: It then flared up to the west as well in a line that looked impressive on radar. Close enough to hear some distant thunder, but it didn't look that visually impressive from this location. So far we've had 47.5mm this month. 22mm from Monday overnight into Tuesday. We're one of the driest locations around here though as all the convective downpours have avoided here. A weather station in the hills between Exeter and Dartmoor recorded over 50mm from downpours on Monday, with
  19. Who knows what summer will be like overall.. we've had both good and poor summers after poor starts to June. Yes the next week or so looks poor but beyond that the models etc are unreliable (and some show an improvement anyway). The weather's not been too bad in my particular location, Friday morning was wet, otherwise mostly just some showers around but also a fair amount of usable weather good for outdoor exercise, and ok amounts of sun. Not much sun this afternoon but had thunder rumbling past instead. I can understand the frustration, I am guilty of it myself sometimes especially
  20. This is about the worst weather pattern down here. Yesterday looks like it was about the only sun in 12 days if the Met Office forecast is right which is back to its usual recent appearance of not having a single 'sunny interval' symbol in the next 7 days. And either our weather or the BBC forecast quality is crap, because it shows no hint of brightness for the next 14 days ? I'm going to the Alps on tomorrow anyway, but this same pattern probably means poor snow conditions, no fresh snow for about 2 weeks, and it's been mild with freeze/thaw cycles.. No real sign of the weather patte
  21. Are people in the other thread actually surprised that charts near/after t+240 have changed? Happens more often than not. At this time of year I'm happy for last weekend's weather.. pretty stormy on the seafront on Friday evening, and then sunshine and showers with thunder heard from multiple cells, and hail, until Monday. Yet it was also pleasant in the sun with a few beautiful sunny mornings. I prefer either that or sunny clear weather with frosts (like we had at the end of October), over any chilly cloudy 'not worth it' weather that cold synoptics can often bring this time of year (a
  22. Lol so some know more than the Met Office/model programmers ? It's an ensemble mean anomaly map which will always show watered down values compared to any single ensemble (or the actual outcome), and when you apply, say ~0.5C warming since the reference averaging period, most of the world may come out warmer than average. So better for interpretation/looking for patterns than taking the numbers at face value.
  23. Nice to have a bit of weather, good stormy conditions at Sidmouth on Friday evening, surprising amount of cars driving through all the spray and some stopping to watch, one in particular had more than it bargained for as a wave crashed over its bonnet! 28.0mm of rain here from the main front. Although the most intense showers missed here, I heard thunder from three separate cells yesterday and still had some heavy showers. 11.8mm in total since 8am yesterday (about half that last night). It's usually too early for proper cold here so I like either this sort of weather or sunny condition
  24. Despite the stats for this Autumn not looking bad, the weather seems to have had a knack of writing off whole days (usually at weekends like last Sunday once again), but anything intense enough to be interesting has missed here. Last night all the heavy stuff went west of here, and has been going just east of here for a few hours, and now just west of here again...
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