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Evening thunder

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  1. Must admit, it looked slightly better than I thought it would too... Not quite so good here with 17-19C every day, although 19C is my average and the forecast sometimes seems to under-estimate temps a bit here. I guess it depends what kind of weather you want and how important staying dry all day is, some places will get a lot more rain than others! I suppose as it's subject to change fronts could get stuck in the circulation more than currently shown.. I hope not though. UKMO possibly little more 'northwesterly' than GFS at t+144, but I think still 'sunshine and showers' (not quite sure
  2. Still looks mostly like a slack trough, with heavy showers and perhaps thunderstorms bubbling up each day to me (though GFS seems to merge these into something more organised through Wednesday night). Not something we've seen much of recently, and many on this forum (if maybe not this thread) might not complain about that. So locally variable rainfall totals that add up in the accumulation charts, but it's not as if it's going to be days of frontal rain, or there will be no sun. Temperatures on the whole don't look below average either. Met Office (model derived automatic) forecast
  3. Yes it gave the gardens and fields a good soaking which is just what many farmers and growers wanted after how dry it's been. Not a single flood alert is in place, and it came mostly overnight.. bonus! That NE/Yorkshire warning is just the 2nd yellow warning for rain the country has seen in a very long time too. Anyway I'd prefer rain that falls in fewer, heavier falls than is spread out in a load of dull drizzly days. It could do.. but I don't feel like being all depressive about that risk every summer when an unsettled spell or charts inevitably appear at some point.. Based
  4. Hopefully the weather under the slack low on the ECM is more sunshine and showers rather than frontal. Looks that way on the precip charts with not much frontal activity after Friday/Saturday. Spákort gert á VÍ BRUNNUR.VEDUR.IS Maybe not great from a general pubic/only interested in dry and warmth point of view, but I wouldn't mind that too much.. Been ages since I've seen a proper cumulonimbus or heavy/thundery shower type day. Last June and this June so far are not nearly as bad as 2012, at least here.
  5. I don't want too many days like Saturday (max 12.9C), or today as it's been totally cloudy so far, but other days recently have been nearer average. 6.5mm this month so far here, 13mm in May, 56mm since the middle of March, so it's quite dry here. Not an issue for water supplies, or deep-routed plants but dry for gardens, grass, some crops. So it depends whether that affects you. Cornwall looks like getting a good soaking tonight.. up to 3 inches possible. Some models keep most rain west of me but the radar looks like I will shortly get wet.
  6. Although the ECM is wet, thankfully I don't think we would get flooding problems comparable to 2007 etc, especially with the dry Spring. Maybe some local issues due to blocked drains etc, or dry soil if we get intense downpours, but not widespread river flooding. Back then we had totals well in excess of 100mm in 24 hours on saturated ground. I think you might be accidentally viewing the wrong dataset, tomorrow looks more like 18-19C in southern counties. There's other days that don't look too bad more widely Bearing in mind last week the GFS was going for 20/21C in some pl
  7. This afternoon was quite nice here, fairly sunny and breezy. Then a heavy shower this evening to water plants a bit. So it might rain next week.. Suspect many farmers will be jumping for joy if the ECM's significant rainfall totals come off. They probably don't want another poor grass or crop growth year after 2018.. and what else is going on. Never fails to amaze me just how much people can moan on this forum or in particular the MOD thread, after the sunniest April, May, and Spring on record (only 3 summers sunnier!). Even just a single day's weather can get called ugly, vile, horrific
  8. I don't really mind that the weather is changing, as long as it doesn't last too long. I've enjoyed this weather, but find interest in a variety of conditions. Had my fair share of sun, 8 consecutive days of 100% sunshine! Anyway with summer weather preferences, I think most want nice weather.. but I'm not sure as many truly like the heat as some might think. Most of my family don't, and friends or work colleagues don't like it when it actually is hot. I think some of the general public think/say they like it hot, but their 'hot' might be sunbathing when the air temp is actually 22C. I
  9. Devon seemed to have the warmest official stations yesterday (apart from Heathrow of course). North Wyke saw 26.2C and Heathrow 26.3C) Not a bad forecast... Looks similar for many and a touch warmer inland If it cools down and turns more unsettled afterwards, I won't mind too much.. It might not last long anyway. Though I have a feeling that even if we had a 1976 summer, one or two would find things in the model output to worry or moan about lol.
  10. I'm up to 236 hours of sun for May now (slight underestimate, using a Davis sensor and cumulus software, but I miss about an hour in the morning). 597 hours this spring, the sunniest season since getting the sensor in 2015. More than summer 2018 (554 hours due to a duller than average August), though May-July 2018 saw 658 hours. Today had a bit of cloud in the forecast but was full sunshine like yesterday. The Met Office forecast is now 100% sunny symbols until month's end. If that really happens, as my sensor maxes at about 13.7 hours a day, I'll record 305 hours for May (which will be
  11. A day of full sun yesterday, and sunny today until cirrostratus thickened later in the afternoon. That brings my 'estimated' sunshine total using a Davis sensor and Cumulus software to 185.8 hours (this will be slightly under the true total, mainly because I miss about an hour of sun in the morning). We've had some cloud recently, but no day with less than 6.7 hours of sun since the 5th of May. It will be interesting to see where we end up, the forecast is fairly sunny overall. The unsettled blip looks 'bright and breezy' here.. a bit of variety is nice anyway and it will keep the win
  12. Here it was 21.1C at 10:58 and the max was 21.6C at 12:21, then it was 14.4C at 4pm, 12.2C at 6pm, and 9.2C at 8pm. A strong gusty wind picked up through the afternoon, and now some lower level cumulus is moving fast under some more mid-level slightly unstable looking cloud that is slow moving. Yesterday was kind of interesting too, we had a max of 23.2C at 2:31pm and we seemed just as warm as inland at the time, despite a sea breeze from about 11:30am. Even stations a few hundred meters from the coast were in the low 20's or at least around 20C. Normally a sea breeze has a bigger e
  13. Lovey sunny days with clear air the last few days. I was wondering about less pollution/haze than normal, although the warm spell brought the usual continental haze. Yesterdays min/max was -0.9C/16.1C here. Tuesday was -0.3C/10.9C, cooler airmass and wind off the channel. I notice it's a morning with large temperature variations like at the weekend: Look like a strong low level inversion overnight again, but more of a breeze mixing the warmer air to the surface over/west of Dartmoor.
  14. I don't think that's an unreasonable change especially if there was some cumulus cloud build up. I see such changes on my station data (VP2 with FARS) even when station siting or a sea breeze can't explain it (e.g. a moderate breeze off the grassy fields that immediately border my station to the NW). I've also seen high resolution graphs from official stations that show such temperature fluctuations (often the graphs we see from official sites are plotted with data points every hour, for example, so they appear smoother).
  15. Yeah true that could happen... That's always been the case though. I feel that a feature of our climate in spring/summer may be that shorter spells of much above average temps can be balanced by longer spells of near/slightly below average temps.. as we usually get some form of Atlantic airflow but when the wind comes from the continent, temperatures spike. In other words, maybe the median maximum is often a little lower than the mean maximum? (I haven't done any analysis to see if this is true). That's no different to the past though, and of course discussion of the detail of what mad
  16. I notice Bude reached 25.0C yesterday, the warmest place in the UK. Not bad for Cornwall (looked about the perfect set up there with them downstream from Dartmoor in the ESE breeze). Here near the south coast it hasn't been quite as warm due to some kind of onshore breeze.. it's often hard not to have an onshore/sea breeze during warm spells here.. then I kind of wish I was near the north coast instead for greater temp variability/meteorological interest. Still, I can't complain really at 4 days of 19-21C temps.
  17. A fairly chilly min of 3.8C here. I noticed big local variations in temperatures depending on elevation.. some stations on the hills were in double figures. I did my exercise early today, cycled up a nearby hill and over to the coast. It was only about 6C in the valley when I set off, but felt very pleasant by the time I'd got to the the top of the hill at 210m. Possibly about 15C up there! Also noticed an interesting feature yesterday.. the wind picked up meaning it was 15C here at 2am at the same time as Exeter Airport about 5 miles to the NW was 6.9C. Anyway I noticed high ground w
  18. Yes I wondered if there would be an on/off approach, or whether cases would then increase too quickly. I guess there is no other option apart from what you say (and what the UK government appeared to be going for at first, before possibly recalculating). Probably a quicker return to normality, but via a massively overwhelmed NHS and more deaths. I wrote something like that in my post but then it seems it got lost in editing.
  19. https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths So would this be like current UK measures, or could it be a stronger lockdown approach like Italy, Spain, France etc, where you can only leave your house for essential reasons? How many of those under 50 or so, where the death rate is apparently comparable to the flu (and the symptoms often not as bad), would be willing to live under lockdown for that long? I guess you'd have to hope they all understand the wider issue and have the patience. Even if they do, how many of the elderly would actually want to say
  20. This was posted in this thread earlier, and I saw the median age of confirmed cases in Italy was 65.. suggests many milder cases in the younger have been missed (and maybe the elderly too), so a much lower overall fatality rate, though of course some will be yet to die. I don't remember reactions anything like this over swine flu.. I guess it had a lower death rate especially for the elderly, but it still infected 0.7-1.4 billion people and killed 150,000-575,000. Not saying they are comparable or we shouldn't be reacting like we are, just an observation. Though I have a feeling some of
  21. So I'm not an expert but in my head the UK idea makes some sort of sense. Surely it would be better to allow more cases in summer when the NHS has more capacity to deal with it, than try to lock it down and have it explode next winter if we then come out of that lockdown. What are Spain, Italy, (and even China etc) going to do when they try to return to anything resembling normal? Surely Spain's lockdown won't really last only 15 days? Maybe they are just trying to flatten their curve more aggressively to then manage it better over summer, rather than try to actually eradicate the disea
  22. If that median age of 65 is for all the confirmed cases, it suggests to me (as well as other things) that there are many more undetected (mostly mild) cases, but that also means the death rate is much lower and more inline with that reported from other countries?
  23. Reading 1050.1hPa here.. tried to calibrate it the best I can to Exeter Airport's Met Office site etc.. which was also reading 1050.1hPa at midnight. Kind of ironic that it has also turned cloudy! Wasn't on the forecast and we are/were heading for the coldest night of winter at least so far
  24. A lovely couple of days at last. Kind of funny though, record breaking pressure here at 1050.1hPa, heading for the coldest night of the winter so far, but it has still managed to turn cloudy!
  25. At work there's plenty of daffodils flowering, but they're are an early variety so I guess you could say they are not really a sign of spring if they usually flower in winter.
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