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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. I've been of the view that we haven't had a properly 'bad' summer (in my area of East Devon) since 2012, I'd rate last year perhaps a 4/10, and 2015 maybe 3-4/10. Looking at the Met Office sunshine maps, I've not had a below average summer for sunshine in the last few years, while many parts of England have, so that may suggest why. On the Met Office timeseries, summers don't seem to have an anomalous trend compared to the last centaury (apart from temperature due to climate change). Looks like the 1970s to 2000s were drier more than recent summer have bene wetter. Sunshine doesn't seem to show any overall longer term trend. UK: England:
  2. Been low-mid teens up here for ages so this cooler spell isn't too much cooler. Had a couple of lovely days back in Devon by the looks of it, about 19C and sunny. To be fair yesterday was a nice day here in Lancaster, if 16C so a bit coolish. The weather forecast back in Devon doesn't look too 'bad', if cool warming to average yes. It's interesting that most moaning always seems to be from the south, despite often being sunnier, drier, and several degrees warmer than the north.. Maybe poor weather is expected up here so people don't moan so much? I invite people from the south to come and live up here so they appreciate the climate of the south more Having said that, this was the beach at St Annes, near Blackpool Wednesday last week, it's not all bad
  3. Back in Lancaster since the 5th and it has been generally been cooler and cloudier/windier than back home in Devon, sometimes by several degrees (e.g. a few days of 19-21C there have been low teens up here here). The exception is yesterday which was lovely and today which was fairly warm, probably touched 20C. It is usually better in the south. With that context it's interesting the strongest moaning usually comes from the south.
  4. I hope it gets itself out of the way in Spring this time (last two Aprils were sunny, if different temp wise, so that's different at least)
  5. Not turning out very good down here, 3rd cloudy day and now this is the forecast when a couple days ago it looked pleasant for several days Looks like something out of winter 2021/22 now, and although I don't like to moan too much I have just had a little moan in the moans thread.
  6. I don't like to moan too much but I was looking forward to some pleasant weather, it looked pleasant for several days and now the forecast looks like something out of winter 2021/22: Temps maybe a couple degrees warmer... Already on the 3rd cloudy day now. Not even anything else happening, no wind, so I can't go kitesurfing! Usually that's at least a benefit for me in Spring/summer, if the weather's naff and unsettled it usually comes with a good old breeze off the Atlantic so I get to do my favourite activity... not this time (which reminds me of many of the poorer spells in the south in Summer 2021, also not much wind with them). I should have added; I'm in East Devon at the moment.
  7. Interesting fact: At my parents home in East Devon, there has been more sun in the last 5 days than in the month long period from 11th Dec-11th Jan, and the two days of Storm Eunice and Franklin alone gave more sun than the 11th Dec-5th Jan. This shows again that proper Atlantic 'mobility' being dull compared to high pressure is not always true. Much of the above very dull period in Devon was anticyclonic. I've been in East Devon since Thursday and have probably enjoyed it more than any other weather this winter. It doesn't help that basically nothing else interesting has happened this winter, also not helped by my predominant location in Lancaster. Basically it's been anticyclonic gloom (and a few nice days) or westerly, which in Lancaster is very prone to being dull/damp due to uplift, any hint of non-PM air on a westerly there = cloud. That's a difference I've noticed between Lancaster and East Devon, easier to get sunshine between the fronts in Devon. Lancaster didn't see much sun in recent days until yesterday.
  8. Proper squall about 30 minutes ago from that stuff now tracking across Dorset! It did what it says on the tin for once, really increased the wind speed. Often they bring heavy rain briefly but don't really increase the wind speed. Not sure how my station only recorded 41mph, it seems the biggest gusts missed my anemometer. Just up the road saw 56mph which seems more like it (they saw 63mph from Eunice so not tooo far off). 66mph on Exmouth seafront (that anemometer is far lower than the 10m standard).
  9. Squall recently went through here and did what it says on the tin for once, really increased the wind speed. Not sure how my station only recorded 41mph, seems the biggest gusts missed my anemometer. Just up the road saw 56mph which seems more like it (they saw 63mph from Eunice so not tooo far off). 66mph on Exmouth seafront (that anemometer is far lower than the 10m standard).
  10. Agree this is amber worthy, if the GFS is not overestimating then this is stronger than Dudley was modelled (which then downgraded but the Amber stayed in place). In fact it's a similar strength on the GFS to Eunice.. A couple of charts for I saved for Eunice on the left, and 3am Monday on the right The ECM was not as strong last night, but the website I know for ECM gusts has not updated this morning. I see the Met have issued a small Amber for Northern Ireland, surely they will too for NW England/N Wales unless their models are showing significantly lower speeds than the GFS.
  11. Post-mortem in East Devon where I have been the last few days: A notable event, not seen spray whipped up off the sea in Sidmouth before when I've been there (not just from waves). However, this area is bit more sheltered due to geography in West/SW winds compared to southerly winds. Exeter Airport had a highest gust of 69mph. I noticed Exmouth NCI had 78 mph after it had turned westerly, quite impressive for a non-standard height Vantage Vue on a westerly wind in that location. I've seen a few trees and branches down, though not loads. I don't think this beats February 2014 here, as that saw patches of plantation conifers mostly felled, which doesn't seem to have happened this time despite some similar wind speed measurements (Eunice was higher at Exeter Airport apparently). However, a nearby weather station measured 70mph in 2014 and 63mph yesterday. In terms of Met Office warning, I think amber was about right for this location. Apart from maybe the times of issuing, I feel they got the warning areas about right. Any other warning system would have at least some of the criticisms directed at the current system since it is accused by some of being too complicated/messy, and by others of being not informative enough..
  12. Met Office location forecasts are still in the low 60s for Exeter and home in East Devon (BBC shows 81mph in Exeter but 61mph at home oddly). The Met Office symbol map still doesn't show gusts getting to 80mph anywhere on the coast and mostly 60s to low 70s in some places inland. Surely that's under-doing it a bit? However, models like the GFS don't really get above the 70s inland either. If this is correct, I feel the Met Office warnings are about right. Does a few hours of gusts into the 70's in February warrant a highest-level red warning? Doesn't feel like a 'red highest-level' event for my inland east Devon home. An amber should still be a pretty noteworthy warning. On the other hand, some models like ECM appear to show gusts a bit higher from charts I've seen posted here (despite lower mean windspeeds, is there a difference in how they calculate gusts?) so, it maybe depends on which model you look at. Anyway, the storm surge up the Severn with spring tides looks potentially concerning. 10 severe flood warnings issued by the Environment Agency /assets/images/govuk-opengraph-image.png Check for flooding in England - GOV.UK CHECK-FOR-FLOODING.SERVICE.GOV.UK View current flood warnings and alerts for England and the national flood forecast for the next 5 days. Also check river, sea, groundwater and rainfall levels.
  13. I agree, despite what I have said if a red is what is needed then of course it's better to issue it and perhaps it shouldn't necessarily be reserved for the very strongest events possible . and there we have the answer! red issued.
  14. Depends what you mean by 'downgrade' Not a great choice of word for what's still a severe event, but there has been a slight reduction in strength compared to some outputs in the last couple of days. People were commenting on how the GFS had the black crayon out (I'm focussing on the SW/Wales, maybe it's not done so for the east)
  15. Personally, I'm not quite sure if this is a full on red now. Yesterday with with 90-100 mph gusts shown coming into the SW/S Wales on some models yes, but today it's more like gusts into the 80s near the coasts on the GFS/ECM, and 70s inland. Current charts are slightly weaker than some seen yesterday on the approach into the SW (including some UKV charts I saw posted with 100mph gusts just offshore)... as pointed out wind force increases exponentially with speed, so 10mph does make a difference. GFS has 84 mph touching Cornwall and low 80s along the south coast.. ECM also looks potentially weaker, based on mean wind speeds (WZ doesn't have gust for ECM) UKV this morning had 80mph+ around the coasts but doesn't get above the 70s for inland Devon even, The Met Office location forecast only has 60mph gusts for Exeter (we've had that of a yellow warning), and I can't find anything above 76mph on the coasts. It seemed yesterday like this was underestimating, maybe it still is but doesn't seem quite so far out now? So possibly it looks like a solid Amber to me rather than a full on Red (unless any hints of a sting jet on the odd high res model actually happens). There's probably arguments for a red, but less clear cut IMO. However this is arriving with a spring high tide around the SW coasts (not sure if that's in the Met Office remit at all, or EA flood warnings), but I wouldn't like to be in the Met Office's shoes. It's still a severe event, but I've seen stronger modelled numerous times further out showing what's possible. 87/90 were in excess of 100mph in exposure. The ECM a couple months ago had an extreme storm/sting Jet west of Ireland with at one point an average wind of 110mph gusting 143mph modelled! Not sure how realistic it is for one of them to one-day hit the UK, but if it did, the Met Office might need purple if they've used red for 80mph gusts.
  16. I thought spending winter in Lancaster might be slightly more interesting than in Devo, near the Lakes/Dales for snow, or otherwise more likely to be in a storm track. However we've had neither. It's just been mostly dull (westerly dominated winter), and often wet. I don't think anything interesting has happened at all (with the exception of Storm Arwen and snow in the Dales which wasn't in meteorological winter). Now back home in Devon is for once in a main storm track, and I'm up here which will probably find the gap between strong winds to the south and snow risk to the north, so it's just 7C and wet all day, which is all it ever seems to be here.
  17. That first chart doesn't seem completely accurate to me.. suggests Blackpool gets >1200 of sun but it gets nearly 1600 hours. Might just be the resolution. In winter, I've noticed that further east in Europe seems pretty prone to cold anticyclonic gloom. Just looking at a few cities on Wikipedia (so this assumes the Wikipedia climate tables are correct), and Blackpool gets more sun than Berlin on average from November-January. Warsaw only averages 33.6 hours in December, and Kiev averages 31 hours (Blackpool averages 49.3 hours). Also Moscow only averages 18 hours and it's on the same latitude as Edinburgh (49.1 hours). Having said that, my experience up here this winter has been rather cloudy... Thought yesterday was a good day for here, some blue sky/sunny intervals... but the satellite showed we were still the cloudiest region of England (at least in the clearance behind the front that was clearing the south). This morning it's -3C and sunny back home in Devon.. Cloudy and 6C up here in Lancaster. So many times it seems better back home, and they are also doing better for frosts. Had-5.3C the other day, not been that cold in Lancaster.
  18. Well, that would blow the cobwebs away... Probably quite literally after recent conditions.
  19. More pressure wobbles today, I wonder if it could be pressure waves/ripples coming around a second time or just caused by something else? Edit: I believe it is.. two smaller blips towards the end of my graph are a similar distance apart from the first two blips near the start of the graph About 36 hours to travel all the way around the globe since the first passage.. Seems about right if the first wave took 14.5 hours to travel about 16,500km, a bit less than half way around. Using rough figures 16,500km/14.5 hours = 1,137 km/h 40,075km/36 hours = 1,113 km/h gives pretty much the same speed for the pressure wave so it's consistent with the theory.
  20. I agree, I often think that when I see posts which are basically people getting wound up and winging about other people's weather preferences. Having said that December was about the dullest period I remember, From 10th Dec-10th Jan, Exeter Airport had one decent day of sun, and a measly 12.9 hours in total (6.1 hours if you remove the one day of decent sun). Before that, I had been in Lancaster which was duller than Exeter early in December. I have seen a few nice sunny days recently but today, I'm back in Lancaster which is in about the only part of England to be dull and grey again. Doesn't make me frustrated and angry but has added to a depressing feel of things in the darkest months. The cloudiness or sunniness going forward will make a massive difference to how I rate this winter
  21. Bit of a pressure oscillation here recently, and basically the same pattern on stations around the country so it's not local meteorology. Could this be the pressure wave from the eruption?
  22. This shows how dull December was: (even duller for me, I missed the 4 days of decent sun in Exeter early in the month, and a few days of decent sun in Lancaster just after I came down to Exeter.. Exeter Airport had 3.8 hours of sun after 10th!!)
  23. Only one day (5th Jan) with a decent amount of sunshine amount in the last 4 weeks here (East Devon). This has to be about the dullest period of weather I have experienced. To add to that, I was in Lancaster before mid December which only seemed to get about 1 day per week with decent sunshine in October and November (a lot less than Devon got). I have said to people from abroad that the UK weather isn't quite as bad (i.e. always rainy/grey) as sometimes portrayed.. I might have to take that back.. maybe this almost perpetual dullness has contributed to some down moments I've had recently. Maybe I actually have SAD for the first time I've noticed in my life. and this is the forecast:
  24. Today and tomorrow hopefully ends what is one of the dullest periods I remember... Since the 10th December there's been a mere 5.3 hours of sun recorded at Exeter Airport, with the highest daily total being 1.4 hours. The clearance is being slower than the forecast from yesterday suggested however.. Yesterday itself had little lower level cloud, so could have been quite sunny if not for the thick grey altostratus overhang all day, meaning zero sun.
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