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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. Odd.. maybe the website breaks if they put in a value higher than 39.9 Wasn't there several readings just above 40C including from 4 sites in and around London? Any official readings will be from a Stevenson screen which should have been well ventilated yesterday given the brisk breeze.
  2. Must have just had a massive discharge! (I've noticed blitzortung shows larger strikes multiple sefrics) That TS is coming my way... will the usual happen, or will it actually make it? Feeling very muggy and warm with a thundery sky.
  3. Yeah, in some ways I've been slightly surprised that some northern locations didn't have higher records than they do(did), due to a long land track available in the right set up, but now they will... records going to be smashed by a huge margin.
  4. I've noticed how this heatwave is most remarkable for more central-northern areas of England compared to averages and historical records. Here we had just one day above 30C yesterday, which compares to 9 out of 11 (and 11 in a row above 29C) in 1976. Parts of the SW, towards north/West Devon and into Cornwall broke their record yesterday, but also down to Plymouth. The Exeter area must be one of the few parts of the country left where the record is still from nearly 50 years ago (33.5C in 1976). And also that before 2015, this used to be the July record (and nearly was until 2019). Now we're going about 4C higher, after going 2.2C higher in 2019..
  5. Reached 28.4C here, just did a very short walk to the river and it's feeling hot. Odd to think we're much cooler than much of the country and the hottest part of the plume has already left here. I kind of want to see what a 40C day feels like lol. About to cool off here as unstable mid level cloud, Ac-cas and towering stuff is coming in. Think I've heard a couple distant rumbles from cells over Dartmoor.
  6. On Weather Underground, many stations in West/North West Wales already 31-32C at 8:45am Many also remained/rose to the high 20s overnight as the warm air from the inversion was mixed down in the lee of the high ground, a few even rose to 30-31C around 3/4am and stayed there!
  7. 25.3C as the sun came up. A brief dip to 24.2C around 4am. Imagine if the plume wasn't clearing the SW today Here's a station that was 30.9C at midnight and didn't drop below 27.2C last night: Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide. Can't vouch for its accuracy of course but the data through June and the rest of July looks good. Interestingly, places where the breeze didn't mix things were relatively cool overnight, Exeter Airport (5 miles from here) down to 13.5C, and a weather station in the Exe Valley to the north of Exeter down to 13.3C. 10-11C cooler than me.
  8. Reached 30.7C here just about being my highest (2008-2022), beating 30.4C in August 2020. Temp dropped to 21.1C around 10-11pm, but has now risen again to 27.6C! I made the mistake of opening the bedroom window when cooler outside, and has now filled with air warmer than the previous tempreature. The reason being the 950hPa temps (about 600m) are a very remarkable 31C! That is being partly mixed to the surface, in a quite localised way looking at Weather Underground stations.
  9. Evening heat is one difference between the interior of the country and nearer to the coast like in the SW. Temps fall away faster here even with some distance from the coast. It dropped below 25C here at 8:40pm while the interior of the country was well into the 30s. That's after a far hotter day inland there too (e.g. 36-38C rather compared to only just exceeding 30C here, after cooler day and night the day before as well). I'm not sure many people around here realise how much worse conditions are for sleeping in regions like the Midlands compared to here. It clears here tomorrow so just the one properly hot day for us too. Our house was actually reasonably pleasant at 24-25C. The temp dipped to 21.1C around 10-11pm. Now however the wind has picked up and it's risen to 27.5C as some of that 31-32C 950hpa air moves in and makes it's effects known!
  10. Reached 30.7C here which did just about break my stations record (2008-2022). Temp reached at least 35.5C in Bude (hourly obs), which was impressive, breaking the Cornish record by nearly 2C. 34.8C was the max at Chivenor so maybe Devon's record of 35.4C from 1990 still stands (although I don't think that station exists now). Exeter Airport only recorded 30.1C, so it didn't beat June this year, or July last year there. Exeter must also be about the only area of the country (maybe some other near south coast locations), where the record from 1976 hasn't been beaten since.
  11. 24C here, cloudy, looks like it's going to take hours to slowly pivot over here, parts of Devon near Exeter struggling on 22-23C, way down on forecast. Today is the only notably hot day here too as tomorrow it clears too early for the SW but nowhere else really. Basically the worst spot away from North Scotland for cloud atm. Classic weather trolling that seems to happen here.
  12. Well it did reach 26C but now dropped to 23.9C and falling as mid-level cloud has slowly drifted in... Parts of mid Devon e.g. north of Exeter are around 22C still, so a very slow start compared to forecast. Why do I get the feeling this little band will take hours to go through and back build going off its motion on satellite? Today is the only properly hot day here (record breaking potential in the north of Devon), so this is classic weather-trolling that seems to happen here... Although, in my location and closer to the south coast, the record from 1976 will probably stand (must be one of the only parts of the country where the temperature record is actually from 1976 still).
  13. The Met Office temperature map (which I like using) shows the 40C contour tomorrow afternoon, Mostly in Lincolnshire area and up to York, with patches down to N London They need a new colour scale as it stops at 36C lol Something I find remarkable, at 2am the temperature at approximately 600m above the ground (950hPa) will be 31-32C here! Driven up from France with strong winds developing just above the surface. Perhaps higher than it reaches at the surface during the day here due to coastal modification. This compares to 950hpa temps of about 28C this afternoon when North Devon is forecast 35-37C, and the highest 950hpa temps in the country today is about 29C. Tomorrow afternoon they do reach 32C over the east. Imagine if that was mixed down to the surface tonight, that's why many areas are over 25C, and locally to the lee of high ground up to around 30C on the Met Office map even at 1am and 4am (e.g. to the lee of Snowdonia)
  14. 14.2C here, positively fresh. Reached 26.4C with a breeze which wasn't too hot feeling. Good skies early morning with mid level instability, and again this evening with a brief heavy shower with and rumble of thunder! Very large drops. Being near to the south coast and in a river valley prone to cool nights must make this one of the better locations if you don't like heat or warm nights, but like pleasant days. Tomorrow though looks fairly hot this close to the coast even with an onshore breeze, though maybe only high 20s, and tomorrow night remaining in the 20s all night if the breeze keeps up.
  15. Can't completely say I agree when comparing actual maximums with the maximums predicted by the GFS (in my post). A large area on the 06Z and previous runs was over 40C in the SW, with 42s and 43s, when in reality only isolated 40s were recorded. Near Nantes showed 39-40C, but the region has seen 35-36C maxima. 38C right up through Brittany also not seen. The 12Z run did tone it down a degree or two when the actual days temps were fed in. Not trying to argue, just trying to post objectively what I see, as others suggested, it appears to overestimate for some areas due probably to dry ground conditions, whether that's the case in the UK or not it's going to be very interesting watching the temp observations come in. On a different note, a heavy shower and rumble of thunder here in East Devon. So those showers are reaching the ground with very large drops (maybe not at the intensity shown). Wasn't expecting that.
  16. It does appear the GFS was a few degrees too high for most of France, as suspected like Kold Weather was saying (since I think some of the reaction to his posts was a bit unfair..) For what it's worth, my thoughts are the GFS will be a bit too high for us on Tuesday, Can't quite see 42C at least if the ECM's 850s are correct (UKV shows it too but was also too high for the plume in June), but we might still exceed 40C. I did notice a day or two ago the GFS was showing 32/33C more widely and 34C in North Devon today, but toned it down a little. Not to take away from how remarkable this spell still is.
  17. I'm watching that closely, I think 39C may be over-doing it but think the Devon record of 35.4C could be broken, incidentally recorded just to the left of that 39C at Saunton Sands. It's the lower elevation area around Barnstaple/Bideford which that 39C probably better represents that looks like getting the highest temperatures, with the longest land track and being in the lee of the high ground of Dartmoor.
  18. There's been something odd with the Met Office automated forecasts after day 2 recently - it still has Exeter at only 25C on Monday, and it had been showing 23C. It's relatively close to the coast but no way will Exeter only reach 25C. Here closer to the coast is forecast 28C. Also Barnstaple in inland North Devon was showing only 28/29C while Westward Ho! on the coast was forecast 35C. Something definitely changed with the system about 2 months ago though, Exeter is constantly forecast a few degrees colder than here in warm weather, more in hot spells, which never used to be the case. It's as if the location the temperature is extracted from is a bit wrong (in the sea/right on the coast), or it uses low resolution model data that smooths the effect of the sea.
  19. The GFS 12Z showed it only 25C cooler on Wednesday 4pm compared to Tuesday 4pm in places
  20. I guess it's possible given the 925hpa (about 762m elevation) temp will be 32C according to the GFS! and 29C according to the ECM. Depends how deep the nocturnal layer and modified layer due to the channel is, but maybe the higher parts of Dartmoor will be poking above this and be 30C in the early hours which is kind of bonkers. ECM has 24C 850s and 28C 925hpa temps over the SW daytime Monday, and 21C 850hpa temps and 28C 925hpa temps in the east Tuesday, so going by that Monday could theoretically be as hot inland in the SW, but perhaps not due to the shorter land track. I'm interested in how hot North Devon gets though, may well beat the Devon record of 35.4C from 1990. I'm not sure 40C would be reached if the ECM's slightly lower uppers on Tuesday are correct though, I'd guess for 39C then in that case.. but seems slightly odd how it's lower than most other models.
  21. Not sure what's up with the Met Office forecasts for the last couple of months but beyond day 2-3, they've been massively underestimating the temperature for Exeter, and only 23C is forecast for this spell: Exeter isn't too far from the south coast but no way will it only reach 23C. People must be confused seeing an 'extreme heat warning' for 23C too... It's like the automated system thinks Exeter is in the sea, or it's drawn from a low resolution model that smooths the effect of the sea. It didn't use to be like this though, you'd think they'd notice as they are based there. My location that's closer to the south coast is showing 28C. Having said that, it looks increasingly likely that Monday will be the only exceptional day in the SW, although still exceptional in itself. The latest GFS/ECM has cooler surface air arriving by early morning here so we wouldn't actually get an exceptional min down here going by the 0900-0900 hours.
  22. In Lancaster only maybe 5 days this year have reached 20C. All but one were not properly sunny because we were on the edge of the warm airmass, for example that brief plume when Exeter reached 32C (not far from the record) but Lancaster had dropped to 16C by the afternoon. The exception was last Thursday which reached 24-25C up here and was a lovely sunny day, but then by evening it poured with rain so was still no good if anyone wanted a BBQ. There have been a few nice days in the high teens, but other than that, a lot less nice or 'pleasant to sit outside' days than down south. Supposedly the average maxima here is only 2C lower here than back home in Devon, but it often feels more like 5-10C this year. Quite a lot of rain recently (just started raining again), and no sign of any yellow grass around here. I wanted to go to the Scottish highlands but no hint of a break in poor weather up there. Feels like a different world up here. People moaning from the south have increasingly less sympathy from me
  23. ensemble member showing 40C.. but still below 20C in Lancaster (and further north/west)
  24. Was warm this morning, up to 23C, but now 16C and grey in Lancaster... In Exeter most weather stations are reading at least 32C on Weather Underground, and it's also unusual that that east facing coasts around Teignmouth have an offshore westerly wind which has pushed out the sea breeze, and hence and are about 30C. That could be a record for them as hard to get offshore winds there in a heatwave. Definitely a pocket of heat east/NE of Dartmoor as predicted by the models. Back home about 10 miles east of Exeter it's 26C despite being a few miles inland due to some southerly sea breeze influence, the Met Office had that being pushed out by the developing westerly with it being 31C about now, but that hasn't happened yet.
  25. Interesting maps, it's interesting that, on the face of it, that doesn't seem to have caused a noticeable change in sunshine on the Met Office timeseries. That's percentage of possible sun, so actual sunshine hours will not have been higher in January 2003. Not saying that last summer wasn't poor in the SE. Apart from the official Met Office timeseries?
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