Evening thunder

I can confirm there is Ac Cas in Newton Poppleford A fair bit in various directions. Quite dark to the SW with Ac Cas and other mid/high level cloud. In fact it's quite a thundery sky considering what looks like a light band of rain is approaching on radar.. Maybe it's a sign something will break out as it drifts north of here lol. The Jersey stuff, if it survives, will go east of here. All pretty predictable.

Funny how the cooling affect of the channel always seems much greater once you get to Devon.. East of Devon, you very quickly find yourself in the high 20's just inland.. but once you reach the Devon boarder, it suddenly it takes longer. By 7pm just a couple miles inland in Dorset it's over 25C.. but sub-25C air makes it all the way to the north coast in Devon? The forecast maps actually show a stronger onshore breeze as you go east.. so this temperature behaviour doesn't really make much sense to me. Tomorrow as well: Plymouth often ends up being warmer than here even though I'm a few miles inland, as the wind backs easterly there instead of them getting a sea breeze. It's often the same with warm/hot spells.. a frustrating thing about living here from a meteorological perspective (though a small part of me is glad as I'm working outside). If you like comfortable weather in the low 20's but not hot weather, SE Devon has to be one of the best parts of the country. At least it shouldn't stop us getting any elevated thunderstorms Thursday night..

I don't have statistics or such a good memory of 2007, but on balance I'd probably go for 2012. 2012 was certainly wetter here, no doubt the wettest on record. June: 186mm, July: 149.4mm. August: 136.2mm. Total: 471.6mm! Also severe flooding in this area on the 7th July (unlike 2007 that was just wet with us missing the flooding rains). 2012 did however have an overhead thunderstorm with frequent lightning at 4am on the 28th June. Also another late evening thunderstorm in August. It also had a very warm few days in late July (one was a touch warmer than any days 2008-2011), and some warmth in August. Just outside summer technically but 2012 also had a very warm spell in late May with 27.5C here, beating anything from the 2007-2012 summers lol. June 2012 maxima were basically in the teens apart from a brief 23.7C on the 28th. June 2007 didn't start too badly, and some of August was ok, with some low 20's. However the whole summer and especially July looks to have had a big lack of warmth. Had to wait till August 25th to even get 24C at Exeter Airport that year!! (Sometimes I have suspicions over those figures but it seems plausible looking at Dunkeswell). I don't remember much interesting stuff happening locally either, or much thunder. So 2012 was possibly a bit more 'interesting' meteorologically here and if I had to pick one I might even choose it. but perhaps a little worse from a summer point of view and general public perception.

Had some rumbles of thunder on Wednesday from a storm that formed a few miles away as it drifted off while we remained in sunshine. Yesterday looked like we finally had a chance of something overhead here, but the rain band was further south so it was rather wet instead.. some heavier embedded showers and convection still, but the most intense ones managed to go either side and all around here.. so normal service in that respect. Just a mile away had a torrential downpour with lots of surface water but that only clipped here. Still pretty wet, but not as high as some totals locally and what people are reporting on here. Yesterday 27.6mm, today so far 7.6mm. Exeter Airport and many personal stations around here have recorded over 50mm

Another one for 2019 being alright.. though I think that's partly down to regional differences. We seemed to have more 'consistent' weather, especially in July, than some areas. June did have some poor weather but seemingly not as bad as some parts and we ended up near average due to the end of the month. July was consistently warm, mean max 1.5C above average. 22 consecutive dry days to the 18th and drier than July 2018 ironically. Sunshine above average. August had some poor weather again but temps averaged a near-slightly above average value, with that warm/hot bank holiday weekend. All but one day from June 24th - August 8th reached 20C (every day did at Exeter Airport). However, I only saw 25.9C from the plume that broke the record. Not too surprising due to the channel, but the main heat of the plume was also east of here. If I lived where there was the record breaking heat and then downpours, I probably wouldn't complain from an interest point of view either.

Ah that's a good one. I thought there was a better chart than the ones I posted but I managed to miss that. Hopefully my post wasn't a bit OTT but negativity had annoyed me a bit. Anyway, I guess this spell has gone on a bit longer than those examples and it will depend on how things pan out after next week's more 'average' weather (with showers and thunderstorm risk), as to how the month overall will rate. I'm hoping for some more sun too. We've had a few poor days here (also had my first thunder yesterday though not as close as you), though I think we haven't done as badly as some areas, which also seemed to be the case last June.

Must admit, it looked slightly better than I thought it would too... Not quite so good here with 17-19C every day, although 19C is my average and the forecast sometimes seems to under-estimate temps a bit here. I guess it depends what kind of weather you want and how important staying dry all day is, some places will get a lot more rain than others! I suppose as it's subject to change fronts could get stuck in the circulation more than currently shown.. I hope not though. UKMO possibly little more 'northwesterly' than GFS at t+144, but I think still 'sunshine and showers' (not quite sure without seeing the rainfall charts).

Still looks mostly like a slack trough, with heavy showers and perhaps thunderstorms bubbling up each day to me (though GFS seems to merge these into something more organised through Wednesday night). Not something we've seen much of recently, and many on this forum (if maybe not this thread) might not complain about that. So locally variable rainfall totals that add up in the accumulation charts, but it's not as if it's going to be days of frontal rain, or there will be no sun. Temperatures on the whole don't look below average either. Met Office (model derived automatic) forecast doesn't look bad either for your location. (Average June high 19.9C or 20.4C depending on station) The SW may be one of the cooler areas next week but don't think it will be too bad for me.

Yes it gave the gardens and fields a good soaking which is just what many farmers and growers wanted after how dry it's been. Not a single flood alert is in place, and it came mostly overnight.. bonus! That NE/Yorkshire warning is just the 2nd yellow warning for rain the country has seen in a very long time too. Anyway I'd prefer rain that falls in fewer, heavier falls than is spread out in a load of dull drizzly days. It could do.. but I don't feel like being all depressive about that risk every summer when an unsettled spell or charts inevitably appear at some point.. Based the moaning seen as soon as unsettled charts appeared this year, I think some may have written off 1995 and 1976, when these charts appeared, had computer models and Netweather existed back then ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A bit of perspective and positivity wouldn't go amiss on this forum at times!! Maybe it's what else is happening in the world.. I thought it might have given a bit of perspective but if anything it seems to have done the opposite.

Hopefully the weather under the slack low on the ECM is more sunshine and showers rather than frontal. Looks that way on the precip charts with not much frontal activity after Friday/Saturday. Spákort gert á VÍ BRUNNUR.VEDUR.IS Maybe not great from a general pubic/only interested in dry and warmth point of view, but I wouldn't mind that too much.. Been ages since I've seen a proper cumulonimbus or heavy/thundery shower type day. Last June and this June so far are not nearly as bad as 2012, at least here.

I don't want too many days like Saturday (max 12.9C), or today as it's been totally cloudy so far, but other days recently have been nearer average. 6.5mm this month so far here, 13mm in May, 56mm since the middle of March, so it's quite dry here. Not an issue for water supplies, or deep-routed plants but dry for gardens, grass, some crops. So it depends whether that affects you. Cornwall looks like getting a good soaking tonight.. up to 3 inches possible. Some models keep most rain west of me but the radar looks like I will shortly get wet.

Although the ECM is wet, thankfully I don't think we would get flooding problems comparable to 2007 etc, especially with the dry Spring. Maybe some local issues due to blocked drains etc, or dry soil if we get intense downpours, but not widespread river flooding. Back then we had totals well in excess of 100mm in 24 hours on saturated ground. I think you might be accidentally viewing the wrong dataset, tomorrow looks more like 18-19C in southern counties. There's other days that don't look too bad more widely Bearing in mind last week the GFS was going for 20/21C in some places that actually saw the mid-20s Thursday the 18th, 14C?

This afternoon was quite nice here, fairly sunny and breezy. Then a heavy shower this evening to water plants a bit. So it might rain next week.. Suspect many farmers will be jumping for joy if the ECM's significant rainfall totals come off. They probably don't want another poor grass or crop growth year after 2018.. and what else is going on. Never fails to amaze me just how much people can moan on this forum or in particular the MOD thread, after the sunniest April, May, and Spring on record (only 3 summers sunnier!). Even just a single day's weather can get called ugly, vile, horrific, a disaster, etc.. Yeah ok.. maybe you need some real problems to worry about.

I don't really mind that the weather is changing, as long as it doesn't last too long. I've enjoyed this weather, but find interest in a variety of conditions. Had my fair share of sun, 8 consecutive days of 100% sunshine! Anyway with summer weather preferences, I think most want nice weather.. but I'm not sure as many truly like the heat as some might think. Most of my family don't, and friends or work colleagues don't like it when it actually is hot. I think some of the general public think/say they like it hot, but their 'hot' might be sunbathing when the air temp is actually 22C. I also think some might confuse the feeling of a genuinely very warm/hot air temperature with humidity. For example I went to a BBQ in Reading on the 1st July 2018.. everyone was finding it a bit uncomfortable saying 'it's the humidity'.. and that that's a problem with British heat in general. The temp was about 30C with a dew point of 12C, so not humid. A few people have said to me they found 2018 a bit much, including my friend who presents as liking heat and 'hot' holidays. Though it's nicer on holiday when no work needs doing, there's the sea/pools, and the sea breeze means the air temp is lower than the 38C the resort thermometer that's placed in the sun suggests lol. Also of course UK houses are not designed for hot weather. I'm like the rest of my family.. very fair skinned, burn easily.. although the 'novelty' of heat here and my interest in weather means I generally want hot charts to verify even if I may find it a bit uncomfortable. I'm usually fine with mid-high 20's when lounging around (I would want to do any exercise early or late) and didn't find 2018 too bad, however it rarely gets above 30C here. We're prone to sea breezes and I live in a valley that's also prone to cool minima. If I lived in an inland town I wonder if I'd more easily tire of hot weather in this country.

Devon seemed to have the warmest official stations yesterday (apart from Heathrow of course). North Wyke saw 26.2C and Heathrow 26.3C) Not a bad forecast... Looks similar for many and a touch warmer inland If it cools down and turns more unsettled afterwards, I won't mind too much.. It might not last long anyway. Though I have a feeling that even if we had a 1976 summer, one or two would find things in the model output to worry or moan about lol.

I'm up to 236 hours of sun for May now (slight underestimate, using a Davis sensor and cumulus software, but I miss about an hour in the morning). 597 hours this spring, the sunniest season since getting the sensor in 2015. More than summer 2018 (554 hours due to a duller than average August), though May-July 2018 saw 658 hours. Today had a bit of cloud in the forecast but was full sunshine like yesterday. The Met Office forecast is now 100% sunny symbols until month's end. If that really happens, as my sensor maxes at about 13.7 hours a day, I'll record 305 hours for May (which will be a slight under-estimate). April wasn't the sunniest on record locally, but May could be close?

A day of full sun yesterday, and sunny today until cirrostratus thickened later in the afternoon. That brings my 'estimated' sunshine total using a Davis sensor and Cumulus software to 185.8 hours (this will be slightly under the true total, mainly because I miss about an hour of sun in the morning). We've had some cloud recently, but no day with less than 6.7 hours of sun since the 5th of May. It will be interesting to see where we end up, the forecast is fairly sunny overall. The unsettled blip looks 'bright and breezy' here.. a bit of variety is nice anyway and it will keep the wind and kite surfers happy for a bit

Here it was 21.1C at 10:58 and the max was 21.6C at 12:21, then it was 14.4C at 4pm, 12.2C at 6pm, and 9.2C at 8pm. A strong gusty wind picked up through the afternoon, and now some lower level cumulus is moving fast under some more mid-level slightly unstable looking cloud that is slow moving. Yesterday was kind of interesting too, we had a max of 23.2C at 2:31pm and we seemed just as warm as inland at the time, despite a sea breeze from about 11:30am. Even stations a few hundred meters from the coast were in the low 20's or at least around 20C. Normally a sea breeze has a bigger effect on temperature in warm spells, and can even make the temp right on the coast drop to near the sea surface temperature.. but occasionally it seems to have less of an impact. I have some theories but it would be interesting to know the dynamics of why.

Lovey sunny days with clear air the last few days. I was wondering about less pollution/haze than normal, although the warm spell brought the usual continental haze. Yesterdays min/max was -0.9C/16.1C here. Tuesday was -0.3C/10.9C, cooler airmass and wind off the channel. I notice it's a morning with large temperature variations like at the weekend: Look like a strong low level inversion overnight again, but more of a breeze mixing the warmer air to the surface over/west of Dartmoor.

I don't think that's an unreasonable change especially if there was some cumulus cloud build up. I see such changes on my station data (VP2 with FARS) even when station siting or a sea breeze can't explain it (e.g. a moderate breeze off the grassy fields that immediately border my station to the NW). I've also seen high resolution graphs from official stations that show such temperature fluctuations (often the graphs we see from official sites are plotted with data points every hour, for example, so they appear smoother).

Yeah true that could happen... That's always been the case though. I feel that a feature of our climate in spring/summer may be that shorter spells of much above average temps can be balanced by longer spells of near/slightly below average temps.. as we usually get some form of Atlantic airflow but when the wind comes from the continent, temperatures spike. In other words, maybe the median maximum is often a little lower than the mean maximum? (I haven't done any analysis to see if this is true). That's no different to the past though, and of course discussion of the detail of what made up the average is good, but that doesn't mean anyone comparing current averages with past averages is 'loving to ignore' colder spells of weather or having selective memory. Looks like a couple near or below average days depending on location on Monday/Tuesday, then rising to comfortably above average by Thursday. Average April Maxima (1981-2010) in lowland England are typically 12-14C.. even at Heathrow it's only 14.3C.

I notice Bude reached 25.0C yesterday, the warmest place in the UK. Not bad for Cornwall (looked about the perfect set up there with them downstream from Dartmoor in the ESE breeze). Here near the south coast it hasn't been quite as warm due to some kind of onshore breeze.. it's often hard not to have an onshore/sea breeze during warm spells here.. then I kind of wish I was near the north coast instead for greater temp variability/meteorological interest. Still, I can't complain really at 4 days of 19-21C temps.

A fairly chilly min of 3.8C here. I noticed big local variations in temperatures depending on elevation.. some stations on the hills were in double figures. I did my exercise early today, cycled up a nearby hill and over to the coast. It was only about 6C in the valley when I set off, but felt very pleasant by the time I'd got to the the top of the hill at 210m. Possibly about 15C up there! Also noticed an interesting feature yesterday.. the wind picked up meaning it was 15C here at 2am at the same time as Exeter Airport about 5 miles to the NW was 6.9C. Anyway I noticed high ground was still the warmest today at 11am and noon. The 21C's at 11:00 were between 200-408m high, and the 22C's at 12:00 were between 252-408m. It was 21.9C at East Oakment Farm on Dartmoor (408m), so I wonder how warm low elevations could get later? I also noticed it reached 25.0C in Bude yesterday, the warmest in the country. A bit cooler here near the south coast at 19.8C.. Though the sea breeze seems weaker today, up to 21.2C so far here.

Yes I wondered if there would be an on/off approach, or whether cases would then increase too quickly. I guess there is no other option apart from what you say (and what the UK government appeared to be going for at first, before possibly recalculating). Probably a quicker return to normality, but via a massively overwhelmed NHS and more deaths. I wrote something like that in my post but then it seems it got lost in editing.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths So would this be like current UK measures, or could it be a stronger lockdown approach like Italy, Spain, France etc, where you can only leave your house for essential reasons? How many of those under 50 or so, where the death rate is apparently comparable to the flu (and the symptoms often not as bad), would be willing to live under lockdown for that long? I guess you'd have to hope they all understand the wider issue and have the patience. Even if they do, how many of the elderly would actually want to say sod it lets see what happens, instead of living a possibly significant amount of the time they have left in isolation? Could the effect of such a prolonged period of lockdown or aggressive measures actually be nearly as bad or worse than the virus itself? Mind you, The BBC's live reporting link quoted for France: Probably a lot of things can be justified under 'exercising'. Can I go surfing/kitesurfng? Not in Portugal apparently as the beaches are closed, but I doubt surfers living on the coast are going to stay out of the water for 18 months or more! Seems a low risk activity unless the virus can spread through sea water? Is driving 8 miles in my car non-essential travel? A selfish concern? Maybe. A trivial concern compared to many who run business etc? Probably. But then exercise and well-being isn't that trivial over such a long period.