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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. Evening thunder

    Storm Helene - ex tropical system for UK

    I notice the GFS is persisting in looking much stormier than other models, I don't think any UKMO/ECM run has shown anything like it although the UKMO has a weaker storm a bit further north this morning. Virtually nothing on ECM again... though I guess this shows that if the lows/jet interact in the right way there is potential for something. I'm ready for some sort of weather though, this September is doing what September often does, i.e. reminding me of the Green Day song 'wake me up when September ends'.. (basically it's been flat high pressure ridging down here but not especially sunny and never in a position to give anything notable)
  2. Evening thunder

    What did you think of Summer 2018?

    It was for me though not as good as this year. A decent June and July's mean maxima was 2C above average. August was cool though. 26th is quite good in an index including 118 summers.. It was actually sunnier than than 2018 in parts of the SW (as was 2013).
  3. Evening thunder

    What did you think of Summer 2018?

    I'd put summer in the 'good' category, perhaps 'very good' but not quite 'Excellent' here. This is a main reason: If anything it felt like I could have been in the deeper grey, and August is when many people holiday and visit the SW. In June and July (and May) the SW was also less anomalously sunny compared to many parts of the country, so the result was a somewhat sunny summer here but not exceptional, and that's the impression I tended to get: Also for the weather enthusiast there wasn't any thunder, or any exceptional temps like 76, 83, and 90 managed (even though they were modelled at times). 1976, 1983 and 1989 had more days above 25C here, and 1976 (exceptional I know) had a mean maxima nearly 1C higher (so this year wasn't the joint hottest here). Obviously it's a bit much to ask for all of those in one summer but an excellent one needs a decent August, and tbh August 2018 wasn't decent enough here. If including May the rating would be a touch higher though.
  4. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    I was wondering where the mean temp for this summer would end up, with the caveat that in a warming world it's easier to get mean temps rivalling the 'hottest' without quite such exceptional 'on the ground' feel, as it no longer requires quite such exceptional synoptics and the resulting sunshine/mean maxima anomalies.. Not sure how much that applies to this summer though though. If a 1976 occurred today I guess it could be around 0.5C warmer? I expect if/when we do get another summer to rival that synoptic wise, we will beat mean temp records by quite a significant margin.. like much of Scandinavia has this summer (and in May). Anyway August was too cloudy here (February had similar sunshine levels), for this summer to rival the 'best ever'. I think by most measures that is the case here.. sunshine, mean maxima, days over e.g. 25C, and extreme maxima have been higher in the best previous summers. It was still very good though.
  5. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Definitely a different feel indoors the last couple days, jumpers required after a notably cool 4.1C min yesterday and 6.3C today, followed by today's wind and rain. I don't actually mind days like today in Autumn or the odd one in summer but there's been a bit too much of it at weekends and too much cloud this month for this summer to truly rival the famous ones. August may well finish below 2013 and 2016 now (it definitely will for sunshine). However if we're going to get a day like today I'd rather have had the heavy rain that turned out to be mainly north of me, so at least there's some weather interest, rather than a boring light-moderate rain/drizzle fest write off which stops you doing things just as much.
  6. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    August started well here, and will probably finish at least slightly above average temperature wise. However it has been rather cloudy, 76 hours on my station (probably a slight underestimate but still not good). The Met Office had sunny symbols yesterday afternoon but instead the cloud thickened here while breaking up for Dorset/Somerset eastwards. 0.1 hours of sun this weekend which makes it 3 out of 4 cloudy or wet weekends. Anyway, I thought I'd plot my maxima so far this summer against a crude average line: (just made a smoothed line graph using the monthly average maxima for Exeter Airport and subtracted the average difference between there and me) Quite impressive how many days are above average. The May-July period was probably one of the best. However I think one could argue that August doesn't look quite good enough for summer to be one of the all time classics, as it's one of the two warmest months on average and when most people holiday.
  7. Models seem to have been near the mark here (and much of Devon/Cornwall), 25.4mm since midnight, and 5.6mm yesterday. Yesterday had a surprisingly cool min of 4.6C and then only reached 17.5C in the cloud and dampness (mean temp was the coolest of the summer). Last night a much milder min of 16.0C. No sun yet today either and the highest so far is 18.9C.
  8. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Down to 4.6C overnight here, didn't expect it to be quite that low! Tbh most places in Europe can get the odd day being cool and wet due to the placement of a low. Continental areas also more often get bigger swings in temperature. I don't mind the odd day of poor weather really, it's if it becomes weeks. Though tbh recent days have been a bit cool/showery here and this weekend isn't looking great. It will be back to the mid-20's for you soon though of course in an average summer 6C above average days could be balanced by 6C below average days (or a longer duration of slightly below average).
  9. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    But you stated matter of fact that the end of September 1969 saw a mini heatwave, and then quoted the stat that it was in the 70's. You only mentioned subjective experience and 'stats being irrelevant' afterwards when people suggested otherwise. If that's how we do things I may as well say it was 36C yesterday because I was doing physical work outside and felt pretty hot.
  10. Frustrating from an enthusiast POV, a shame that even on this summer the modelling that delivered something major for my area couldn't come off.
  11. After another cloudy start we did get decent sunshine in the afternoon afternoon/evening yesterday and a max of 27.6C With no sea breeze it was still 24.7C at 8pm. Then the temp dropped really quick, down to 14.4C by midnight (the minimum on the previous night was 16.7C). Min was 11.7C this morning, now 21.3C and sunny, the onshore breeze will keep it less warm today.
  12. Yes and the labelling of model runs as going off on one, wrong, hilarious etc which then turn out correct
  13. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Overcast start and it's still cloudy yet again, the weather seems to be trying it's best to drag this summer's rating down considering these are supposed to be the hottest days before it cools down (there's also the downgrade of 1pm temps from 26C to 21C over 5 ECM runs for tomorrow). Lets see how the forecast of sunny at 12 goes.
  14. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Cloud broke up by 11am, to give cumulus and sunny intervals. In a sunny spell it reached 28.1C but both lower and then mid level cloud meant no sun at all from 3pm until about 7pm with the temp hovering near 25C. Some late sun now and cooling down a bit, bringing the sunshine total up to 4.0 hours. It does beg the question would it have got hotter, and follows the theme this summer on the potential hottest days of warm spells The dew point has been notable hovering around 20C all day. I felt pretty warm after a walk in cloudy conditions and a temp/dew of 25/20C.
  15. Evening thunder

    Drought - Summer - 2018?

    Interesting how quickly the grass has greened up around here. It didn't go as uniformly brown as in many part of England due to rain on the 1st and 4th of July and a bit more overnight into the 21st, presumably it would have been easier for it to recover where not completely dead. 19mm in the last 4 days of July brought the monthly total to 44.5mm and the soil surface is still damp in places.
  16. I notice this weekend has incrementally downgraded here, 1pm temps on the ECM went from 26C to 22C over 4 runs. Also the correct solution seems to have been arrived at with that plume i.e. it curves nicely around Britain but effects the entirety of nearby Europe and heads into parts of Scandinavia.. Normal service resumed then.
  17. Evening thunder

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    The cloud thankfully cleared yeterday afternoon (often been quite cloudy these last 7 days). I see a few 30's in the east and even 28C in Manchester so about 7C above normal. Nothing like that here.. max was 23.4C so about 2C above average. Should be warmer today, but it's currently overcast again.
  18. I've noticed the temps have been downgraded a touch here for the weekend. For example, 3 runs ago the ECM had 26C's as 1pm temps for me.. now it shows 23's and 24's. That seems to have been a common theme this summer here, although many unsettled trends beyond about a week often didn't verify, temps have not quite been as high they had been shown 3-5 days before (and significantly higher temps were shown at 6-10 days sometimes). To me it feels like since the unsettled weekend appeared, the modelling is often trending in the other direction to much of summer, i.e. towards the less hot and more unsettled solutions. One day the various runs/ensembles that brought a 'proper' heatwave to central and southwestern areas will verify (even the E/NE surface winds and 18C 850's with 33-35C maxima for me that the GFS and many ensembles showed a few times). It feels like a big chance missed though with the hot air to the south and east, and how high the SST's had been before the very unsettled weekend cropped up. It's funny really, if I hadn't seen the virtual model world it probably wouldn't feel like that lol. I will enjoy this weekend though and surely I will beat my very low maximum of 25.6C from the last 10 Augusts.
  19. Evening thunder

    Was summer 2009 a bad summer?

    I noticed it looking pretty good up there on the anomaly maps. It seems SW was worst and north best that summer (compared to their respective averages) We didn't get much thunder here, I recall showers often electrifying as they moved further east.
  20. Evening thunder

    Cause Of The UK Heatwave?

    I'm being pedantic perhaps but 1976 saw the June record with 35.6C at Southampton (tied with Camden Square in 1957 although the Met Office indicates there's reservations about that record) and saw 35.9C at Cheltenham on the 3rd July. In my location it's above the rest with 33.5C being the record at Exeter Airport, and an 11 day stretch with 29-33C (9 of those 30C+). 1983 and 1990 also saw over 32C. A major heatwave is one element that's been missing for central-west/SW England IMO. Ok we have scraped 30C but the big heatwaves in 76, 83, 90, 95, 03, 06 etc got higher (sometimes 35C+ in places). This had been suggested by the modelling a few times but it didn't verify. As such even this year almost everywhere at our latitude including parts of Ireland/Scotland, and of course parts of the Arctic circle e.g. north Lapland, have got hotter). That doesn't stop it being a great summer overall of course, but for someone like me it's just a box left unchecked on the 'all time greatest' criteria sheet.
  21. Evening thunder

    Was summer 2009 a bad summer?

    Here it was quite poor overall. Perhaps a little better than 2007/2008 but 2010 was better being the only 'average' summer in the 2007-2012 period here. June was alright with a mean max of 20.0C (slightly above average), Rainfall 57.2mm, 5 days >1mm July had a mean max of 19.7C (near 1.5C below average), Rainfall 175.0mm! 19 days >1mm August had a mean max of 20.3C (slightly below average). Rainfall 56.6mm, 12 days >1mm This shows the maximum temperature and rainfall for each day. I don't have sunshine stats for then but the Met Office maps shows the SW was one of the dullest areas anomaly wise.
  22. 25c = 20 27c = 11 30c = 2 32c = 0
  23. Forgot to post, yesterday reached 27.7C despite almost full cloud magically tracking over here until lunch time (had got to 26C), then rose a bit despite the sea breeze. This became more effective about 4pm when it dropped quickly to about 23C. Low 10.6 last night. Cloudy all day today, reached 22.3C with a touch of brightness, thanks in part to the high SST's. I hope Sunday's weather doesn't reduce these too much by giving the seas a good mixing.
  24. Evening thunder

    Possible new UK all time record

    Much of the Netherlands/Belgium look to have had minima in the mid 20's and are already 35C!
  25. Thanks for your reply and thoughts. Of course if they are more successful than any combination of model products then there has to be another form of input into them. I did quote the ops I guess though the ECM has been consistent and gaining weight including from the GEFS mean now (although with variation in the ensembles as usual). Of course they could change again to what the anomaly charts suggest. Only one way to find out.
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