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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. Can't complain about the weather over the last 6 weeks here. Not as great as last year but consistently warm, fairly sunny, and it hasn't rained on many days since the 20th June. 22 consecutive dry days up to the 18th July (last July was wetter with a couple more rain days funnily enough). Only 1 day since the 23rd June didn't reach 20C, and only 3 didn't reach 21C. The average here is only just above 21C. It does look like deteriorating now but at least we had a solid 6 week period here, although perhaps not much in it for the weather enthusiast apart from one elevated storm as the main heat of the plume was east of here.
  2. Yes it can be interesting how it varies across the country. We only had 2 maxima of 25.9C here.. (partly due to the onshore wind and the main heat of the plume going to our east anyway). Since then we've had warm and mostly sunny days here this weekend with maxima of 24.1C yesterday and 23.7C so far today (NW offshore breeze). July has been notably dry so far with 11.4mm of rain and just 2 days with any significant rain.. there was 22 days with none at all to the 17th. Fairly sunny too here. So basically a pleasant summer's month with lots of nice weather but quite homogeneous temps, not the contrast/interest of record breaking heat and then a 15-20C temp drop. Though we did get an elevated thunderstorm from the plume. Some spots right on the south coast of Devon and Cornwall (and possibly Dorset) probably haven't seen any max temp drop at all.
  3. Many of these are personal stations rather than official stations (unless you change the filters). My own AWS uploads to there, it's a bit like the Met Office version of Weather Underground. The consistency with this station over the years doesn't look great.. (linking to where I saw a post on another forum rather than just copying the image) http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121929-temperature-watch-thursday-25th-july-2019-uk-all-time-record-falls-cambridge-botanical-gardens-387c/page__view__findpost__p__1089124  As they say.. doesn't look good around 2008! But what others say is true.. if we eliminate all stations for some possible reason how many will we have left? I guess nothing but grass for say 100m around a station often isn't representative of the landscape either.. If Stevenson screens over-read slightly in light winds, then in actual light wind weather they will over-read anyway rather than give the true air temperature? Just shows how hard getting true air temperature readings is especially without aspiration. I guess all we can do is have a certain standard and say that's that. Whether or not I think Cambridge Botanic Gardens should fit that standard on Thursday with the bare soil and shelter from trees to the SE.. I'm not sure. On Wednesday the bare soil looks like it was downwind, but with shelter the air was possibly eddying/wafting around that area sometimes passing over the bare soil and then the Stevenson screen.. but I'm not an expert in how much affect this might have.
  4. Ah well, one day one of these runs that actually bring very hot temps to this part of the country may verify.... rather than just the eastern half of the country as modelled this week, and last summer too in the only plume of 15-20C uppers, and in 2015 when it was 24C here but 36C in London. Also all of the near continent sees record/near record heat again.. while Scandinavia, Shannon in Ireland, Aviemore in Scotland broke records last summer but my hottest days scraped 30C under 13-14C 850s. Not complaining about the great summer but it didn't really match the temps seen in the SW in 76, 83, 90, 03, 06 etc. Harder to achieve here I know but last summer and now this summer there have seen quite a few model runs bringing temps of 33-35C here (e.g. the ECM had two runs of 20C+ 850's and a slack E/NE flow at the surface here with raw maxima 33C, 36C in Somerset), it just hasn't happened. 23-25C my likely temps this week. Should be pleasant at least, though something will probably happen such as the North coast of Norway getting a hotter temperature than I've recorded for decades again.
  5. Can't really complain from a pleasant weather point of view here. Today will be the 20th consecutive maxima above 20C. Ok it's cloudy this morning and we've had the odd mostly cloudy day but I've averaged 8 hours of sun a day this July so far (probably closer to 9 in reality as my sensor misses early sun).
  6. I guess the problem is that the near-surface air on Thursday isn't coming from the continent. (3pm average wind speed - gusts considerably higher as is the wind speed further above the ground). Only on Friday does it show hints of coming from the continent from southern areas, but that has only been the case for a few hours so it is possibly still air that has entered the English Channel via the North Sea.
  7. Maybe we need to look at this from a different angle. Perhaps the atmospheric temps below 850mb are similar to the examples Quicksilver1989 posted above, but the difference here is the exceptional temperatures advected above this? In the Skew T chart posted by knocker, anywhere below about the 850mb level is included in the 'modified' layer. I guess 1.5km atmosphere may be a lot to warm through one or two days of sun (especially when the brisk E wind means the air will have crossed the UK from west to east in less time than this), when you consider 850mb is a level chosen because it is not effected significantly by diurnal heating of the earth's surface. In my mind perhaps the strong 'cap' from the exceptionally high 850hpa temps actually makes the modified layer/inversion more 'robust' and harder to mix out via normal vertical mixing of the atmosphere? So although usually you can add about 15C to the 850hpa level temps in sunny weather away from windward coasts, this is not always true, and perhaps becomes more likely to not be true when the temperature of the ocean surrounding us that heavily modifies the air above it, is actually below the 850hpa temps. I guess we may be unlucky with the dynamics of how this event evolves this time. Friday still looks pretty breezy/gusty I would like temps to be higher than predicted and believe they will at least be the usual few degrees above model predictions, I expect somewhere e.g. Somerset/Bristol will see 30C+ on Friday, and more widely on Saturday as the wind slackens off. I wonder if a Fhoen effect managed to pull down some of those high 850's whether we could see local hotspots somewhere like West Wales?
  8. It seems a stronger/deeper undercut of cool air is modelled than sometimes occurs even with an easterly drift. Maybe also the higher 850's above this make the modified layer/inversion more 'robust' to the normal vertical mixing of the atmosphere that results in a more typical temperature profile? I do remember a few examples of lower maxes than the 850's suggest due to modified air bring brought in from the North Sea (e.g. 11th-12th July 2013, I had a max of just 19.3C and 20.9C under uppers of 12C and 15C (although some of that came via onshore wind from the channel)). A bit disappointing for the enthusiast.. it looked rather interesting with temps into the 30's and severe storm potential (Met Office thought so too), but it's evolved to be a few days of hazy mid level cloud as any storms will miss me, followed by unexceptional temps and no storm potential. Another example not to trust the models into the mid range. I still expect temperatures are being under-done by a few degrees though, and Saturday could get widely into the 30's east of my location.. It will still be very warm and breezy down here for a couple days which is one of my favourite weather types for pleasantness.
  9. Actually the ECM is similar to the GFS in that it only gives low-mid 20's for most until Saturday when the surface flow slackens off. Before that fresh wind off the N Sea causes a layer of modified air to undercut the 850's which are being drawn up from the SE. Knocker and Man With Beard etc have posted charts about this showing why. Even the ICON shows it: As does the UKMO forecasts. I imagine the AGREPE would if it went beyond 6am. It seems to me that all models that have this surface flow actually agree on this? I expect temps are being under-done by the usual few degrees, so we'd see the high 20's at least cross the south and west, before more widely reaching the 30s at the weekend. I wonder what a fhoen effect in Wales or the SW could do though? However I can't just dismiss all these models as wrong just because of their very own 850hpa predictions. The models take account of all the variables far better than my head.
  10. Not posted in a while, but we had a bit of thunder and lightning rumbling past us on Monday associated with this: It then flared up to the west as well in a line that looked impressive on radar. Close enough to hear some distant thunder, but it didn't look that visually impressive from this location. So far we've had 47.5mm this month. 22mm from Monday overnight into Tuesday. We're one of the driest locations around here though as all the convective downpours have avoided here. A weather station in the hills between Exeter and Dartmoor recorded over 50mm from downpours on Monday, with 131mm for the month so far.
  11. Who knows what summer will be like overall.. we've had both good and poor summers after poor starts to June. Yes the next week or so looks poor but beyond that the models etc are unreliable (and some show an improvement anyway). The weather's not been too bad in my particular location, Friday morning was wet, otherwise mostly just some showers around but also a fair amount of usable weather good for outdoor exercise, and ok amounts of sun. Not much sun this afternoon but had thunder rumbling past instead. I can understand the frustration, I am guilty of it myself sometimes especially when looking at heat/storms on the near continent, but there's some over the top moaning and writing off going on. About as silly as writing off a winter because the first half of December was mild. We get temps 10C+ above average at times (e.g Easter, various times last year), so of course you should expect this to be balanced by below average temperatures in the long term (either 10C+ below average, or longer stretches of slightly below average weather), but it seems some don't.
  12. This is about the worst weather pattern down here. Yesterday looks like it was about the only sun in 12 days if the Met Office forecast is right which is back to its usual recent appearance of not having a single 'sunny interval' symbol in the next 7 days. And either our weather or the BBC forecast quality is crap, because it shows no hint of brightness for the next 14 days I'm going to the Alps on tomorrow anyway, but this same pattern probably means poor snow conditions, no fresh snow for about 2 weeks, and it's been mild with freeze/thaw cycles.. No real sign of the weather pattern changing much for when I return either. Not sure it's possible for weather to be any more boring.. Changeable climate my ass! Oh well.. lol. The effects of the SSW are gunna have to be good, to make this worth it.
  13. Are people in the other thread actually surprised that charts near/after t+240 have changed? Happens more often than not. At this time of year I'm happy for last weekend's weather.. pretty stormy on the seafront on Friday evening, and then sunshine and showers with thunder heard from multiple cells, and hail, until Monday. Yet it was also pleasant in the sun with a few beautiful sunny mornings. I prefer either that or sunny clear weather with frosts (like we had at the end of October), over any chilly cloudy 'not worth it' weather that cold synoptics can often bring this time of year (although not always, such as late November 2010).
  14. Lol so some know more than the Met Office/model programmers It's an ensemble mean anomaly map which will always show watered down values compared to any single ensemble (or the actual outcome), and when you apply, say ~0.5C warming since the reference averaging period, most of the world may come out warmer than average. So better for interpretation/looking for patterns than taking the numbers at face value.
  15. Nice to have a bit of weather, good stormy conditions at Sidmouth on Friday evening, surprising amount of cars driving through all the spray and some stopping to watch, one in particular had more than it bargained for as a wave crashed over its bonnet! 28.0mm of rain here from the main front. Although the most intense showers missed here, I heard thunder from three separate cells yesterday and still had some heavy showers. 11.8mm in total since 8am yesterday (about half that last night). It's usually too early for proper cold here so I like either this sort of weather or sunny conditions with frosts at this time of year. Possibly 23rd December 2013 I had 42mm and remember a couple of intense line segments missing me. I recall the river Mole in Surrey flooded very badly. There's a small section on this page whch says a swathe from Dorset to Kent recorded 50 to 70mm https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/2013-decwind
  16. Despite the stats for this Autumn not looking bad, the weather seems to have had a knack of writing off whole days (usually at weekends like last Sunday once again), but anything intense enough to be interesting has missed here. Last night all the heavy stuff went west of here, and has been going just east of here for a few hours, and now just west of here again...
  17. Low of -3.8C at 00:30, no frost this morning as it's currently 3.6C and we had a rain shower giving 0.4mm just before 6am. There was quite a nice sunrise, lighting some of the cumulus clouds up in orange. I notice it's still around -1C in places towards Exeter, and at the airport.
  18. Just past 6pm and it's already -0.3C here, this time last night it was +1.3C. Not sure if it would end up colder than last night if it stayed clear all night, however in reality it shouldn't be quite that cold due to more cloud that's forecast to come in.
  19. Wow, a minimum of -4.9C here which smashes my station's previous October record of -2.9C in 2008. Ironically that's also just 0.4C away from the minimum that the beast from the east (and last winter) gave us, reason being the wind never dropped then to allow a valley inversion. Some winters don't get a min this low. Yesterday had -1.0C, and Saturday morning -1.9C. I also drove through sleety rain between Tiverton and Exeter on Saturday evening.
  20. It reached 19.9C here yesterday with cloud and windy weather, It was very mild overnight with a min of 16.6C on Friday evening, but the temp fell to 13.9C by midnight on Saturday night so it won't show on my records. In general though this Autumn has been pretty boring here.. some pretty cool minima at the end of September and one on the 7th Oct (0.1C) but otherwise, nothing particularly notable in any department. No notable falls of rain. Windy on Friday/Saturday but not really 'stormy' (it rarely is here these days). No convection or even sunshine and shower days (when was the last one of those?) Funny how often the bits of weather we have had i.e occasional wet days seem to have been weekends though! And from the models it looks like yet another boring-type high pressure is coming.
  21. Not posted much recently but not had much to post. Some pretty cool minima at the end of September. Friday/Saturday were pretty windy but not really 'stormy' (rarely is here these days). No particularly heavy falls of rain, with the heaviest west of here on Friday and east of here today. Now the rain is easing off but not properly clearing, to leave another drab boring weekend day..
  22. I think of it as around average overall here. Warmer and colder than average weather balancing out, and it did have more variability and interest than some summers. August was a bit poor (as ever), but June was a bit warmer than usual with that mid month hot spell. Some good thunderstorms around the 18th/19th July (and this isn't meteorological summer, but the most frequent lightning I've seen overnight on the 26th-27th May, distant but flashing literally every second). Overall, better than any 2007-2012 summer (though 2010 not too far behind), better than 2015, about level with 2016, behind 2014, 2013 and 2018.
  23. I notice the GFS is persisting in looking much stormier than other models, I don't think any UKMO/ECM run has shown anything like it although the UKMO has a weaker storm a bit further north this morning. Virtually nothing on ECM again... though I guess this shows that if the lows/jet interact in the right way there is potential for something. I'm ready for some sort of weather though, this September is doing what September often does, i.e. reminding me of the Green Day song 'wake me up when September ends'.. (basically it's been flat high pressure ridging down here but not especially sunny and never in a position to give anything notable)
  24. It was for me though not as good as this year. A decent June and July's mean maxima was 2C above average. August was cool though. 26th is quite good in an index including 118 summers.. It was actually sunnier than than 2018 in parts of the SW (as was 2013).
  25. I'd put summer in the 'good' category, perhaps 'very good' but not quite 'Excellent' here. This is a main reason: If anything it felt like I could have been in the deeper grey, and August is when many people holiday and visit the SW. In June and July (and May) the SW was also less anomalously sunny compared to many parts of the country, so the result was a somewhat sunny summer here but not exceptional, and that's the impression I tended to get: Also for the weather enthusiast there wasn't any thunder, or any exceptional temps like 76, 83, and 90 managed (even though they were modelled at times). 1976, 1983 and 1989 had more days above 25C here, and 1976 (exceptional I know) had a mean maxima nearly 1C higher (so this year wasn't the joint hottest here). Obviously it's a bit much to ask for all of those in one summer but an excellent one needs a decent August, and tbh August 2018 wasn't decent enough here. If including May the rating would be a touch higher though.
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