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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. Been lots of nice days at home in Devon recently, 7 of the last 8 have been mostly sunny... up here in Lancaster we've just had 1 sunny day (yesterday), and a lot of grey. Tomorrow looks like a write off with drizzle the whole day while it looks nice at home again. I guess they do say it's grim up north lol.
  2. Something odd I've noticed recently, the GFS seems to have incorrect sea temperature data around the UK. It seems to use the same data as on these charts, up to 6C below average in the channel: Whereas in reality, SST's are above average around the UK: This seems to manifest in the GFS showing air temperatures too low over the sea and windward coasts. 3pm today GFS vs ECM: tomorrow night: If this is incorporated back into the model, surely this would affect the forward accuracy of the GFS?
  3. After 27.5C yesterday it's not been below 20C all night here, 23.6C at midnight. A warm gusty breeze blowing. Lowest temp 20.2C. Probably will go below 20C during the morning though. Clouding over now, storms about but will probably miss here/die into a wet mess.
  4. Wondering what trickery this lot is going to perform to avoid giving me any action. The big storm/MCS surely will die into a damp mess so I get wet at work without anything interesting. I guess the line of cells ahead of it will just go to my west by about 30 miles (another common thing). Quite possible is that it will then also flare up for Dorset eastwards with nothing for here (just like the plume like attempt in July).
  5. This August is my most disappointing month this summer here, and the stats back that up too. Mean max 20.0C, highest 21.8C, only 63.6 hours of sun so far (probably slightly under the true value but still). In the last week we had a bit of sunshine/brightness at times, but it's been mostly cloudy, and no sun today or on Wednesday. No rain in 7 days until a heavy shower late yesterday afternoon either, so 'useable' but not quite what many would want in August. It feels more like September (often a bit boring), with September-like temperatures at times too.
  6. 10 days over 25C here this year. However when I think that all 6 summers from 2007-2012 only had a few days at best, it doesn't seem too bad. 2007: I have no data but apparently 0 at Exeter Airport if that rounded data is correct! 2008: 3 (+ 2 in May) 2009: 4 2010: 2 2011: 2 2012: 3 (+ 2 in May) 2013: 15 2014: 9 2015: 0 ! (yes, while Heathrow broke the then July record we only reached 24.5C with cloud (but we had been nearly 24C at 3am lol). 2016: 2 2017: 9 2018: 22 (+ 1 in May) 2019: 7 2020: 12 (+2 in September) 2021: 10 So we're actually 4th/15 in a 2007-2021 sample. Some years we get a lot of 22-24C days (not this year), like 2010, but only a few over 25C. That's a near the south coast of Devon climate with sea breezes for you I guess. In my whole record, I've had 107 days above 25C, but 948 days above 20C. One of the better climates in the UK if you like pleasant warmth but don't like heat I guess.
  7. I've defended this summer as not being tooo bad here for June and July, but this August is turning out to be poor. Often cloudy, highest temp 21.8C, and a boring generally cloudy forecast too. Often north-westerly winds can at least have a decent amount of sunshine but not this one it seems. At least Saturday afternoon was nice and yesterday started sunny I guess.
  8. Interesting that parts of the tropics e.g. the Amazon get sunshine hours not too dissimilar to southern Britain. Low 20's is far closer to average than low 30's though of course. The last 30 days at Heathrow don't look too out of the ordinary for summer to me, Just one day didn't reach 20C. A hot spell in there and cooler more unsettled periods, I imagine it balances out to not far from 'average'. I agree some poor periods in there for sunshine etc. It's a bit of a low resolution map. The Met Office one does show a slight tendency towards the SE over the SW. Out of interest, has something significant changed with the weather or more your preferences?
  9. Yeah we've had our fair share of poorer/meh days to be fair. I think I'm most disappointed by the lack of thunder this summer here though. No plumes apart from that Friday night that broke down the hot spell where the storms all died off the coast of Devon/Cornwall, while Dorset east got them. I don't know without digging deeper into the stats and doing some analysis. Obviously the rating would be lower, like if you remove any hot or cold spell from any summer or winter month. However I feel there's a tendency for our 'poorer' spells to last longer, balancing out heatwaves/plumes that deviate further from the average. Hence '3 fine days and a thunderstorm' (as if..). Even July 2012, which was 3.3C colder here by mean max, had a very warm spell at the end reducing the month's negative temperature anomaly. Without that, it would have been even cooler. Up until the 23rd July 2012 I had only recorded 4 days above 20C that summer, and loads stuck in the mid teens... That's a terrible summer. This summer, I had 32 days above 20C by the 23rd July (I'm now up to 41 days). I am not actually trying to argue that it hasn't been 'poor' for some in the S/SE, even if monthly means have come out near average (apart from being wet). I just can't quite agree with posts suggesting this summer has been horrific, dire etc like 2012, for significant amounts of the UK.
  10. It may be true that mins have held mean temps up a bit, However mean maxima (my preferred stat) were above average for most of the UK too, and near average in the SE. I don't like saying people are wrong as such, but it's not been even nearly one of the coolest down here. For instance my mean max in June 2012 was 3.0C cooler, and July 2012 3.3C cooler. Here is the mean maximum temperature anomaly for July 2021 and July 2020. Even down here in the SW mean maxima were slightly above average in July. For almost all of the UK, 2021 was warmer than 2020 which was a poor month for many. Interesting how the the SE has had two near average July's temperature wise, while parts of the North/West have had two very different Julys, 4-5C apart in places. June was also slightly warmer than average for most, sunshine ok for the UK as a whole in both months: With those temps and near average sunshine here, I just can't put this summer in the poorest category. True the hot spell balanced out spells of poor weather in the south, but then average summers feature that to various degrees. Maybe this is a more extreme example of that. I guess more consistently average weather would give more 'pleasant' days and less 'poor' days than this summer, but then people might complain our weather is samey/bland haha, and no heatwaves for those that like them. Maybe the only thing in it would be to change our climate averages.
  11. The last two days haven't been great (but not terrible), a bit cloudy and bland. Though on both Sunday and Monday a torrential downpour bubbled up despite cloudy conditions, to give a little bit of interest. Nice and sunny this morning though. Min of 7.7C yesterday ,the lowest since June 23rd, but not unusual in this valley. July actually had the highest absolute min of any month in my 2008-2021 records - 9.3C, and the second highest average min. Also... Heatwave helps mark fifth warmest July on record | Official blog of the Met Office news team BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The mid-month heatwave has helped the UK to its joint fifth warmest July on record according to provisional Met Office figures, with Scotland and Northern Ireland recording their third warmest July, in a... Better for the north (3rd warmest in Scotland and NI), 11th warmest in England, but even for the SE it doesn't look too terrible on these maps, apart from being wet, and averages are usually made up of good and poor periods.
  12. Wow 6 hours in 2 weeks really is bad. Although the 2nd half of June wasn't good here it wasn't that bad. It's interesting, I still think this summer hasn't been one of the really poor ones here in East Devon, and think that's more due to different weather conditions than difference of opinion. It hasn't been a great one either, but probably 4 or 5 out of 10. Average maxima slightly above average (1C+ anomaly for July). 2012 is absolutely leagues worse than 2021 here: June average max 17.3C vs 20.3C, July average max 19.4C vs 22.6C. June rainfall 186mm vs 74mm, July rainfall 149mm vs 96mm Sunshine has not been far from average for me. I only got my solar sensor in 2015 but June 2016, 2017, and 2019 were duller (2020 similar), and July 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2020 were duller than 2021. There is room for my rating to sink lower through August though... April was also sunnier than 2020 here, and despite all the crisp frosty starts it had near average maxima. Not trying to come across argumentative or anything if it reads like that, I just find it interesting comparing/sharing stats Interesting how even longer time-periods such as a summer can vary over relatively short distances.
  13. Anyway, not sure the poor weather in the south is being ignored, in here we never hear the end of it! In June, it was a pretty small geographical area of the UK that was wet, but it made up the majority postings in here. I guess it is the 'moans thread', but also the only (non-regional) thread to chat about UK weather conditions.
  14. I think that will be the case with both sides. Most people in my family or at work will have said the heatwave was 'too hot' or at least above their comfort levels.. but also wouldn't wish for it to be stuck in the teens and grey/wet in summer either. I guess that's what the north usually feels like haha
  15. I don't think this summer has been too poor so far here... a bit of a mixed bag with periods of good and poor weather like recent summers (other than 2018 of course), i.e. 'typical' British summers (I know last July was very poor further north, but it was just a bit 'averagely-bland' here). This is data from my weather station: Mean maxima for June was slightly above average and July's is going to finish at least a degree above average, even with the next few days to add on. Sunshine doesn't look too far from average, perhaps a touch below in June and the 2nd half wasn't very good. My sunshine values are slightly under the true totals (a clear day gives 13.5-13.8 hours), in part due to early morning shading, so we will have exceeded 200 hours for July in reality. We seem to be a bit west of the wettest/dullest areas this July. Rainfall was a bit above average in both June and July, though I don't think rainfall is a very reliable indicator as you could have a fantastic month and then a month's worth of rain from a thunderstorm one night. Rain days might be a better indicator. Apart from 2015 perhaps, no real poor looking summers on the temperature front here since the 2007-2012 bunch. (my 1981-2010 average maxima will have been about or just above 21C in July/August). A lot of recent Augusts have been below that of course, but the last 3 have been better.
  16. Classic Devon thunderstorm yesterday, i.e. it managed 2 rumbles and a heavy downpour. The day before, I could tell the storms near Torbay weren't going to come/form here so I popped down to Exmouth with developments rumbling just offshore, and a defined rain shaft developed. Apparently thunder was audiable from home, but apart from that distant thunder and a couple of other 1-2 rumble days, this year remains rubbish for thunder (today again, the SW is in more stable air south of the main instability zone).
  17. I think a more correct thing to say would be every time scientists discover something new, (some of) the media associate it with some sort of impending armageddon. The ozone hole was/is a man made thing. Mainly due to manufactured chemicals (CFCs etc), banned in 1989 under the Montreal Protocol (actually considered the most successful international environmental agreement to date), hence we've seen some sort of recovery. That seems quite a sensationalist/clickbait like headline, possibly surprisingly so for that newspaper, however I don't really read the Torygraph anyway. Edit: forgot to clear old quotes, sorry if anyone got a random notification that I had quoted them.
  18. A bit of moderate rain here from the anvil/decaying cells related to torrential downpours with some lightning near Chard (a similar looking set up to when they got flooded in June... hopefully not so bad this time). They are drifting this way but due to the slow motion and how we're just getting rain cooled air here with nothing resembling an updraught within 20 miles, I think moderate rain is all we will get.
  19. A bit of a disappointing lightning distribution for here. Despite the numerous rounds of very active storms in the channel etc, they all died to a couple areas of rain before they hit here. Dorset east, and north Devon/Somerset got some though. The first area of rain in the evening did have a few very occasional discharges of sheet lightning/distant thunder, but still a bit disappointing given the distribution of lightning on the map above. I bet the Channel Islands and paces with a clear view of the intense cells in the channel had a great view. Hardly any thunder so far this year here.
  20. On Wednesday we had slightly more sea breeze influence than the Met Office forecast went for so we didn't get the 30C forecast here but saw 28.9C (inland did see 30/31C) Yesterday in contrast was forecast to reach 23C, but we had 26.4C, it's more normal for us to be 1-2C higher than the forecast anyway. Lovely spell though if a bit uncomfortable at times, yesterday was nice with 26C and a bit of a breeze blowing through the house so I wasn't getting sweaty when sitting indoors. Sea temps have responded well: This presumably helped the minima of near 20C in places like Western Cornwall, and DPs of 20-21C the other day. Cambourne also reached 28.3C yesterday even down there. Often a similar pattern to SST's develops during warm spells, I assume related to tidal mixing. Local SST's off Dawlish have been rising to 22C or just above on recent days and now staying mostly around 21C overnight despite more of a breeze and waves building now. A reading of 22.5C the other day appears to be the highest in the record back to 2010.
  21. Auto-play videos. I wanted to watch one video and then perhaps read the comments, not have some other unrelated video start blurting out, and it's not even clear how to get back to where I was. This applies to multiple websites.
  22. I'd say you can since that graph starts off more above average than it gets below, and the mean doesn't really drop below 8C there. It can simply be explained by averages.. obviously (anywhere in the world), the weather eventually balances out to reach it's climatic average. We are currently seeing temps 8/10C above average for many, so at some point, we have to balance that out. Of course we could just have constant average weather instead but that wouldn't be very interesting.
  23. Yesterday reached 29.4C here with a light sea breeze. Today will be the 7th day in a row above 25C, not bad, a few summers in the 2007-2012 period only had a couple days above 25C! Yesterday and today originally looked cooler here with more of an SE/ESE breeze off the channel, but they upgraded temp wise over the last two days. The Met Office app was forecasting 23C for me, now forecasting 30C for my location today and 31C in Exeter (actually 32C at the airport)!
  24. A notification just popped up on my phone about the warning so just checked it out. I understand the separate heat health watches we normally see, but people from abroad must laugh when they see an "Extreme heat" warning for temps of 27C (my local forecast). It's slightly hotter further inland, but even then its not that "Extreme". Also is Land's End really going to see extreme heat?
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