Evening thunder

I'm not one to be pessimistic but I wish I could take a positive view as in it is only the ECM, but I actually thought at t+144 the ECM looked slightly better than the UKMO with slightly more of a ridge into the south of the UK whereas the UKMO has slightly more of one west of us, perhaps to build and for the lows to topple over the top of and bring in cool NW'erles a bit like the ECM.. we can't really say what the UKMO says after T+144.. after that, what major/'reliable' models are left? the GFS but that's the GFS.. The GEM at T+144 isn't that different to the ECM but then neither is the GFS.. The JMA which I have heard the UKMO rate quite highly I think? is quite unsettled at t+120/144, does briefly build a warm ridge into the south, but on the last frame at t+192 it looks like building high pressure to the west and ready to drop a low to our east to me and bring in a cooler NW flow like the ECM, if a bit slower in evolution. The GFS ensembles are still above average, though the mean has dropped 3C around about the 6th July. Not that this may mean much if this is a trend in the models, as it may be wrong like the last high pressure trend would be if this is a now a new trend.. I notice the models often seem to be quite wrong even in agreement with each other and their ensembles these days at least in my experience. I should probably just learn to only pay attention to the next 5 days or so. Edit: I see the GEM goes out to t+240 on meteociel.fr, and it does build high pressure and a heatwave, not sure how close it's verification stats are to the GFS etc these days. tonight could easily just be a wobble or the variance in the output you would expect, probably not worth worrying about if you're sensible unlike me, but then it would probably be sensible not to get too hopeful of outputs past 1 week even if they agree with each other. I do think this evenings outputs show there is uncertainty to what happens though. Anyway thankfully that's my ramblings for the evening done..

Does everything always have to just downgrade to cool north-westerlies this year?? Oh and Finland ends up hot instead as normal

Before this morning it was the ECM that actually went for high pressure more than the GFS did, then this morning it was the only model showing it's evolution but now the 12Z GFS is actually pretty similar to this mornings ECM in that after some warm uppers in the south, it brings in cooler uppers before high pressure builds more strongly again, though with the ECM it is a bit further west at T+240 so not sure how good it would be after that. We have to wait a bit longer for more widespread and longer lasting very warm weather on both of them (well into FI, though it is a consistent trend atm) although some get warmth before that. You can't really compare them after T+240 where most of the GFS 12Z's widespread heat is though as the ECM doesn't even go out that far. ECM 12Z coming out now though of course. Looks like the ECM is going to go the same way as this morning.. does everything have to always do everything possible to make us get cool uppers from the NW this year?

Blimey, even I didn't expect the ECM mean to be an impovement on the 00Z to the degree that it is. 192 hours: 240 hours: Interesting as well as I believe other factors are not too favorable for this type of evolution from what I have read or seen, i.e the MJO including it's forecasts from the ECM, often seems a decent rough guide when I've noticed but maybe this will be one time it isn't? after all I don't think the weather is that simple as always following what the background factors suggest. Perhaps more than just high pressure ridging into the south if the outcome is something that reflects these charts. I think we have been lead up the garden path by the ECM ensembles before though so I will try and not get too hopeful/expectant of warm high pressure being dominant more than some ridges towards more southern parts yet, but encouraging to see none the less.

Yes, quite a decent chart there (at least away from the north) with this corresponding chart from the mean showing a decent ridge and near 10C uppers: Looks like decent opportunity for summery days to me, gunna have to ask the following post to the one I've quoted how is it not a fairly decent chart for summery conditions? Anyway the ECM 12z ensembles are out in under an hour so we'll see if they still show similar or what changes there are.

Some cloud building up here too, but the forecasts I saw predicted that. A pleasant quite sunny morning up to now though. Having just looked there's still some blue sky inland actually especially looking west of north.

Yes I was thinking about that about the 'collapse' from the NW. the ECM and GFS ensemble means don't really show much of one either especially in the south at T+240 (or any other time frame with the ECM): 850hpa temps are also close to 10C in the south on both means. The GFS ensemble mean looks a bit more unsettled/changeable at times but never really a cool NW flow or anything, although of course some individual ensembles probably show that so it is possible. Most ensembles keep it quite dry and warm in the south though: Interestingly no one else has picked up on these charts.. Using the models then I can paint quite a positive picture if you live in the southern half of the UK. Personally I'm not convinced that it will happen (not gunna pretend my 'gut instinct' is better than the models though!) considering recent downgrading of this weekend compared to yesterday though it could still turn out decent, but indeed what the models and ensemble mean charts I can access show is a fairly normal summer pattern, but a decent one for the southern half of the UK at least.

It seems to have been slightly less windy than recent June's in my location at least. Below are my recorded average monthly wind speeds and the highest gust that month(this includes the night when wind often falls calm here in the valley) June 2011: 5.3mph....... 40mph June 2012: 5.8mph....... 38mph June 2013 so far: 4.6mph....... 31mph June 2011 and 2012 did each contain a notably windy event for June. I think it could be a matter of location different wind directions, and how local topography and exposure effects wind speeds from different directions, both at my location and yours/other locations possibly, but then I could be wrong and it could be I have just stronger winds for me this month have come for more sheltered directions for me.

Wow they've even got the past wrong this time saying this June is likely to be the coldest on record!

Most of the model runs look decent enough though even if anomaly charts show an upper trough in charge? The one model I don't like so much this morning is the UKMO and what would probably happen after the 144 chart: I'd assume the low to the NW would gain the upper hand on our weather and bring in/enhance a NW kind of flow there. that wouldn't be so good after a week the Met Office are forecasting temps not getting much above 20c with cloud at times. However, the ECM operational along with the ECM ensemble mean looks good to me, ensemble mean at T+168: Even at T+240 in the south the mean still looks decent with a ridge and 10C 850hpa uppers in the south: I thought the ECM/GFS anomaly charts reflected the models, I guess if they are reflecting these 00z runs it shows we can still get reasonable/good surface conditions even with a upper trough more in charge, at least for a while? But then again looking at them again, anomalies are around average with low anomalies to the north perhaps suggesting a normal UIK summer pattern with some decent days and Azores ridging at times, no high on top of us perhaps but decent for some. Unless I have the wrong idea with these. I do expect that things might turn more unsettled after a week or 10 days but before that there should be some decent weather more so towards the south of the country is my interpretation of the models, not a bad outlook, although there does appear to be some uncertainty as to the extent of this and the influence of the high or more cloudy westerlies, i.e the UKMO this morning perhaps, and perhaps the GFS at times more especially towards the north, but not a bad run from that model this morning.

A few years on this forum I heard people on this forum saying the NE e.g Newcastle was the most thunder free part of England, now it's basically the convective capital.When do I get to actually see some interesting convective weather/storms this year? This coming Azores ridge looks uninteresting, give me southerly tracking lows and heavy/convective showers down here. The problem then more cloudy dull and cool weather is more likely (well we have that today anyway), and we are unlikely to get traditional warmer summer spells or set ups leading into a plume so better not wish for southerly tracking lows again.

Breezy and cloudy/dull here all day, yesterday was similar but slightly less breezy with more mainly light/moderate drizzly showers, and only a few brief intervals of sun in the afternoon. Pretty much as expected here this weekend though if anything today is worse. In fact it's feeling quite cold as just 13.5C now with not a hint of sun, and not much else interesting (breeze not to strong now), just a few bits of drizzle today. Rubbish! hopefully we can benefit from the Azores ridging in closer next week, with us being in one of the better positions to do so.

When did experts say we will have 10 years of washout summers, or indeed 1976 style droughts in the next few years? I think tourism bosses have certain media outlets to blame not weather experts.

Not yet the sunsets get slightly later by a matter of seconds until the 24th/25th June I believe, it's the mornings that start drawing in first.

Is it me or do the ECM ensembles always show temperatures staying below normal? I did notice they were under-doing maxima in London a few days they were posted in early June but not sure how they re in general. Anyway things should reach at least average after the start of this coming week and the Met Office are going for typical/average summer (perhaps slightly above at times in the south) weather and feeling warm in the sun so that will do for me for now.

Overcast and 14.9c after an overnight low of of 12.7c at 0:05 Wind 2mph WNW Humidity 91% No rain here but some formed east of me, so again maintaining the dry theme this month, could do with some rain really.

Plume event's and MCS's have always missed the UK (just we've been rather unlucky and not had many hit in recent years). I think the hot thundery plume was really just a bit too far south and east, meaning it was always going to be the low countries into continental Europe that got hit. although it is disappointing we didn't get a bit more here. Give me a plume with the low further west/NW rather than over France it's self, and where 15C+ 850hpa temps envelop much more of the country, like some of the GFS runs had shown several days before this event. Mind you I can't see this happening soon while the Abores high sits there to our west..

None over the UK on that map though? the Met Office ATD detection system shows nothing either. Some fairly heavy downpours/showers granted just not technically thunderstorms

The Met Office warnings have only stated it is a low risk of thunderstorms in the warning areas anyway?

Indeed, I don't tend to hope for properly severe things here and the impacts they can bring (a good lightning display in the sky or over the channel will do nicely), but if such an event happens I would be annoyed not to be at home and witness it at the time, especially as it still causes any negative impacts of which I may have to deal with some later. You can see there the 1994 low is much further north (and stronger), and the fronts seem to have the same pattern but this time several hundred miles further S or SE. If you put the current system in the 1994 position that very stormy area over France is instead over the UK. I think this synoptic set up and plume has just been a bit too far east this time, it would probably have been a similar outcome had it happened in the 80's or 90's too. Similarly I think a 1994 set up now could deliver the same big storms as then (small details in the storms and MCS evolution could have a big effect down the line for us though..). June 28th last year showed we can occasionally get strong storms. I think the explanation for recent times is due to synoptic patterns and infrequency of favorable ones, rather than some other force like they suddenly can't cross the channel anymore. I so hope this is a temporary lull in plume type synoptics, not sure when the next one this summer will come from yet. Blimey, almost 4 times more than the UK had on the 28th June last year!

Such a different day to yesterday, reached 25C (24.9Cto be precise) yesterday with sunshine most of the day. Very nice indeed. Today however we now have persistent wetting drizzle with a temperature of 14.4C, the lowest of the day after not falling much below 16C before 9am this morning. Ah well it adds variety I suppose. Could probably do with some rain with only 14mm this month, but this of course won't be enough.

Well if it's not I'm obviously similarly not normal, have been annoyed to miss out on quite disruptive weather events here at home before, and would definitely annoyed to miss an event like that! lol

The latest NAE shows nothing much for the UK at the time the chart on the previous page was posted for: I don't think there will be too much in the way strong thunderstorm activity for the UK, the real hot thundery plume is too far east really. I suppose you could get a few cells or bit of thundery activity in the SE in the stuff crossing the channel at the moment, and maybe something in the showery band in the west. There may also be some surface based heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in parts of England and east Wales, which could give localised high rainfall due to relatively slow movement. No doubt nothing like the near continent will probably see this evening/tonight though.

I reckon parts of the Netherlands are feeling a bit cheesed off too: http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/ (last 7 days lightning strikes) No doubt they will get a big MCS or something tonight to make up for it though

Surely not.. bit of a dampener to end this one very warm summer day here, if this happens I will certainly start to feel a bit short changed.. looks like no way out of that horrid/unlucky pattern while Finland heads towards 30C again, a familiar story in recent years. hopefully as other models show different we can be a bit more lucky, a middle ground wouldn't be so bad (though still may leave us with cool NW winds), but who knows perhaps the ECM will be wrong on this occasion (I hope).