Evening thunder

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Evening thunder last won the day on June 3 2011

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About Evening thunder

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    The best time for a thunderstorm

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  • Location
    Near Sidmouth, East Devon (a few miles inland)
  • Interests
    Geography.. i.e rivers, volcanoes etc..
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer: Warm/thundery. Winter: mainly frosty/snowy. Autumn/Spring: Mixed

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  1. It does detect IC/CC, I've been under storms with tonnes of sefrics but most of it was in the clouds with constant rumbling but relatively few CG's (e.g in Wiltshire last August). Friday night also showed me that again. There isn't actually 500 CG's per minute raining down, that would be some sight! lol Though it's still some sight as it is.
  2. It's kind of interesting that the Met Office seem to think the main risk of downpours is east of Devon/Cornwall, yet the Euro4 12z improves again for us Of course, the potential for the most intense activity is the central or SE area with higher CAPE etc, but I think that further west stuff would still contain some thunderstorms (not just general rain/thundery rain) as MUCAPE values are still decent (though disappointingly GFS keeps downgrading this slightly...) In addition the satellite image looks encouraging just west of Brittany, though the lightning detector doesn't yet. However many models aren't so encouraging this far west. Maybe I'll stay put, as it might be more gutting to miss a good storm here than miss a good storm 1-2 hours to my east.. but I don't know. It sure makes it hard to decide, big gamble either way.
  3. Ok so after seeing some charts/suggestions that things will be further east than me including a tweet from Ian F about the latest Met Office assessment.. the Convective Weather update shifts west and places me firmly in the moderate zone! Not sure what to think. They have done well in the past so hopefully that continues
  4. So the 00z Euro4 showed things kicking off further east of here, more for central-southern and southeastern areas while the Met Office precipitation forecast map was excellent for me... Now the 06Z Euro4 shows the heaviest activity west of here and then up through Wales, while the MetO precip map update is rubbish here with thunderstorms in the SE! (BBC graphics different to both of course) A lot of uncertainty which makes it hard to know what to think, as I would be prepared to drive 1-2 hours east this evening and find a good vantage point if it looked likely that storms would be impressive within viewing distance, and not much would happen at home. Anyway Friday night had some very frequent distant lightning, but we were in the gap around Lyme Bay (the less dense strikes there are falsely placed) I did drive towards the storms west of me which was pretty nice, though that's not as good as a strong overhead storm at home with torrential rain Tbh I can see us missing them again so we end up pretty much the only place along the south coast to not have a decent storm over this two day period lol.
  5. Ahh so the storm coming my way dies only for one to spring up going to Cornwall. Typical.. they did better in 2016 than Devon. That storm is going mad now... oh to have something like that here. I can confirm no strikes near me, I think it's throwing out so many that you are seeing a few which are positioned incorrectly.
  6. It's been picking up most of the flashes I've seen, can't tell if they are all CG as I can't see the base of the storm but a lot seemed 'up in the cloud' too, though a few faint ones it didn't seem to pick up (I thought they detected some CC/IC too, often seem to have in my experience). Very quick detection too, the clicks coming from my computer were often less than a second after the flashes. However it seems to have died a bit of a death atm...
  7. Yes, I'm a few miles inland near Sidmouth and have been seeing distant and often frequent flashes to the south for a while now! Gradually getting closer. can make out bits of the cell/CB being lit up though there's some mid level cloud preventing a clear view of the whole cell.
  8. Had a min of 17.4C last night which is most likely my warmest May min. The breeze with a onshore element has kept it a bit cooler here, up to 23.9C today with a gusty wind (22.1C yesterday), though it's still warm if breezy now (11:10pm) at 20.8C! Also you can already see distant frequent lightning from that storm in the channel from here!
  9. Are they? Unless you mean the further outlook mentioning it being more unsettled for a week or so before becoming more settled with warm possibly very warm temps which sounds alright to me.
  10. Well, when the forecasts came out from them it very much looked possible to be fair so it isn't deceiving people. I think it's good that they recognise that even their own raw/computer output can be a few degrees too low. The SE and East Anglia could still touch 30C on Saturday on the ECM I'd guess. Also I'm pretty sure this won't be a failed to materialise warm spell and many places will still get the mid-high 20's.. I don't recall charts like this with clear sky less than a month from the summer solstice only giving the low 20's before. In fact I remember 26-27C even around here from 850's barely scraping 10C in early May 2008, and these 850's are a few degrees higher so who knows. It's perhaps a little disappointing that there may be a quicker start to a breakdown on Saturday, and the ECM's most exciting output looks like it may not happen, I feel that too (it seems the most reliable model doesn't verify when its output is interesting lol). Though I think we need to be realistic that such charts were never really the form horse.. and if the summer's decent, it will make very little difference in the end.
  11. A bit late but only just seen this. Not examined the ground in detail but the surface is getting a bit dry in places like you'd expect after 9 days, though I think it's still damp enough undearneath. Before the rain it was pretty dry and dusty and I think there was a bit of yellowing of grass in places though our lawn didn't turn yellow/brown like it has in some summers, probably in part because we had 10.8mm from showers on the 1st April. The rain seemed to soak in well and turn things nicely damp rather than creating much mud, though there were a few surface water issues on roads. As for weather, yesterday was nice with a 17.4C max before a late sea breeze, today was cloudy until about lunch time, with a sunny afternoon and a max of 14.3C. Currently quite a chilly 2.5C.
  12. The rain stopped about 9am, with a total of 41.4mm from this event. From the radar and a few weather stations, it appears a few miles west/more SW of me had a bit more especially around Exmouth, possibly over 50mm. I came across several large puddles/flooding spots that were only passable with care this morning, and a manhole cover lifted. So a good dollop around here at least. Actually turned into a better day than expected though, a nice afternoon reaching 16.3C. Though any showers/thunder have missed here.
  13. Still raining moderately to heavyish, some heavy rain last night (though just SW and S of me keeps getting more). According to the Davis, 21.2mm yesterday and 15.0mm sine midnight, so quite a dollop after very little for nearly a month. What time it's going to stop, as often seems to happen, depends on whether you watch the local forecast (about 9am with the band pushing south quicker) or national forecast (about 3pm)... Though the radar suggests the local may be closer to the mark.
  14. A bit late, but Thursday had a min of -2.7C (despite a couple cloud patches later in the night). Friday was generally overcast. Yesterday morning mostly cloudy, then mostly sunny. It was already not going to be my driest April on the 1st, as we had 10.8mm from showers, however between the 3rd (0.8mm) and today there was less than 2mm. Today we've had 9.4mm of mainly moderate rain but one very brief torrential burst, before it turned light and then stopped later. Light rain has started again now.
  15. I see the 'warm or very warm' went from the Met Office 6-15 day outlook yesterday, it did say for this coming Wednesday and Thursday when there's been no sign of that for days. I hope they're looking at better models/data than me though because the outlook returns to 'rather warm temperatures' from next weekend (and above average rest of May), there does seem quite a chance of that not being the case given what we can see.