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Evening thunder

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Evening thunder last won the day on June 3 2011

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About Evening thunder

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    The best time for a thunderstorm

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  • Location
    Near Sidmouth, East Devon (a few miles inland)
  • Interests
    Geography.. i.e rivers, volcanoes etc..
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer: Warm/thundery. Winter: mainly frosty/snowy. Autumn/Spring: Mixed

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  1. Brr, dropped to -4.5C last night, beating the -3.4C on the 29th November. No snow here though. It did seem a bit strange I guess, bur I presume they thought differently to whatever computer output drives the symbol forecasts.
  2. Not posted for a while but the Met Office wind warning looks reasonable now based on this Guess they have better tools than the earlier GFS or are siding with other tools than the model that drives their symbol forecasts Anyway.. a weather report from earlier: Uppers of -8C: check. Land track of about 50 miles: Check. Showers of sleet/rain: Check... Funnily enough they were less wintry than a few light sleet/graupel/snow flurries early this afternoon (not enough to dampen the ground) even though it was 5-6C, with a max temp of 6.4C today. Apart from that, there's been a void with no shower development upstream which has now returned again, funny that. The temperature has fallen quite quick recently though and is now -1.2C
  3. So it seems that unsurprisingly the charts/trends that were showing well into FI might have been wrong (unless tonights GFS/GEM are more on the mark). but then that's normally the case. Although not too many charts showed uppers low enough for proper cold or widespread/lowland snow anyway really. If last winter and this summer has taught us anything it is that we shouldn't get our hopes up over charts, model trends, and even what the teleconnections/experienced members suggest.. as the good looking stuff has been wrong, and even I got sucked in. Still, if this shifts these omnipresent high pressure just to our S/SE/SW that have given so much boring weather recently and over the last couple of years, that'd be a bonus for me. However I expect they'll be back soon.. and on the ECM tonight we don't even get rid of them really, until they are back with a vengeance (so it will probably be near the mark). Why is it that no matter what's shown and looks like happening, the reality just defaults to that?!
  4. Dartmoor looked gorgeous on Sunday with the clear air and sunshine between a few clouds/showers. First air frost yesterday morning, with a min of -0.8°C Mostly cloudy at the moment, much milder at 11.8°C and 2.4mm so far from showers overnight.
  5. I'm not sure there. What I've seen (including at university) is that in general, the LIA was more stormy as well as cooler. Though 'storminess' has been variable over time. Many of those examples in recent years weren't that severe too (Brian nothing unusual, I only remember 'Katie' in Spring 2016 which was nothing unusual, I don't remember 2014/15 (maybe further north had more). But then it's seemed very hard to actually get a 'proper' storm down here in the last decade as they always seem to go north and just give us 'windy' weather (which of course means further north has got hit). Anyway, I wish we could say 'Where have the Eurohighs gone?'
  6. Storm Brian - Weather discussion

    Indeed, although I'm not sure how much of that is just an impression created by the number of very exposed stations in Wales, or whether the GFS is quite wrong in it's wind distribution at virtually T-0 (which wouldn't be very good performance at all...) as it shows the SW getting winds as strong and the N coast of the peninsula perhaps getting the strongest gusts. Definitely yellow warning worthy in these areas though, just not as strong/severe a storm as some might have gotten the impression of from the media etc
  7. Storm Brian - Weather discussion

    Things look to be coming along about as shown by the models in the last few days (though the GFS was a bit slow, clinging on to a slightly higher intensity). Windy, yellow warning worthy in places so the Met Office warning about right, but not sure if it's worthy of a top story 'UK braces for storm Brian disruption' headline on the BBC? or them saying conditions aren't as bad as expected. Very windy at the usual exposed sites on the west coast though, Mumbles average 58mph gusting 75mph. Seems that because it was named by Met Éireann due to an orange warning there, and that several days ago there was a possibility if a more potent system, the news/media have ramped this up as quite a big event for the UK.. For my location, just a blustery/windy day so far as expected, forecast only reaches 40mph gusts for a few hours, though I was wondering if that is slightly low because the GFS nears 50mph (though downgraded a tad from yesterday), and the Met Office has mid-high 50s' and even 60mph near the north/south coast of Devon. Probably correct though as we can seem a bit sheltered from the SW by Dartmoor etc, and widespread 50mph+ gusts look reserved for exposed or coastal areas. Half an eye on showers bringing some more potent gusts inland though. Sea was decent enough this morning but I have seen worse before in June.
  8. Storm Brian - Weather discussion

    The Met Office forecast now only goes for low 40's gusts her (downgraded from low 50's). Slightly higher gusts were forecast and are occurring now. Heard something sizeable break in trees by the river and just had 44mph on my valley floor, sub-standard height anemometer. I bet Brian doesn't beat that and with the rain it probably fees stormier now too. I thought Saturday wouldn't be too bad here though, models like the ECM had it filling more than the GFS showed, and also it has drifted a bit further north now. So a very windy and probably yellow warning worthy for some but not a 'proper' strong storm, and maybe just a 'windy day' here. Also it seems very difficult to get a proper storm here. Apart from a couple of amber-warning level events in February 2014 (that I wasn't here for) they always hit further north, fill somewhat before arriving, or occasionally go south into France or intensify after passing over
  9. Bit of a late reply but we also had the the orange/red-pink sun and weird light on Monday morning. Was impressive to see and the dust/smoke suddenly cleared just before noon. I found these satellite images interesting, you can clearly see the dust/smoke in the frontal band. and yesterday a smokey/dusty plume stretched all the way from SE England across to Russia! As for the weather since then a damp afternoon/evening yesterday with 3.4mm of rain and a lot colder than the day before (Monday was 18C at 7am, Tuesday 5C with a max of 12.8C)
  10. Hurricane Ophelia

    Well tbh, I don't think it will be quite as bad as a few posts in here this evening. I'm struggling to see Northern Ireland upgrading to a red warning tbh, unless I've missed something (which is possible!) and some models are showing far higher winds than many. The GFS only has gusts up to the 60's for most of NI and maybe the 70's on the Irish sea coasts. For southern (maybe central) Ireland I think a red warning (on the UK Met Office scheme) would be justified, where 80-90mph gusts seem realistic (though a few models show the chance of 100mph gusts reaching the south coast with slightly slower weakening of the exceptional winds progged to the south of Ireland? For other areas, not severe enough for a red warning IMO with most models generally showing 70-80 mph gusts max (excluding the usual topographically enhanced gusts/super exposed sites) For some of these areas, more severe storms have happened recently, (e.g. 12th Feb 2014). No models that I can see suggest 90-100 mph gusts widespread up Irish sea coasts like a recent post said... So I don't think it will be comparable to 1987 for most (Shoreham had a 115mph gust then (over 130mph recorded in N France)), except Southern Ireland has a chance of getting close if some high res models are correct, even if not, don't get me wrong, it will be a severe storm that needs taking seriously there (Edit: then I see Nick L's post..lol) Though I was a bit surprised that the western fringes of Wales weren't given an amber warning though, given models showing 70-80mph gusts and very large waves, but the Met Office are bigger experts than me. Personally I wish I could get myself to Pembrokeshire or similar for tomorrow as 75 mph gusts and very large seas could be quite spectacular.
  11. Hurricane Ophelia

    I've noticed that although still intense for Ireland, some models such as the ECM develop extremely tight isobars south of Ireland This weakens considerably by landfall even though the system is still prorogued to bring 80mph perhaps locally 90mph gusts to southern Ireland Those really tight isobars are probably associated with charts showing gusts over 100mph south of Ireland. Some models like the ARPEGE posted earlier probably go a bit OTT, as the peak it gusts it shows of 222km/h is 138mph! I presume a sting jet might be in play too. Quite remarkable really and I'd imagine about the strongest storms get that close to the UK, so it's a good thing that's to the south of Ireland.
  12. Hurricane Ophelia

    Well I doubt it would be severe enough to destroy homes and hopefully livelihoods, and I think most 'fanatics' wouldn't want it to be that severe and no-one wants lives lost.. but that's an understandable view as long as you don't like cold and snow given it's adverse effects, Ice Man. I like both snow/cold and some severe weather and you can't blame weather enthusiasts on a weather forum for finding these things interesting. For my location it looks nothing more than a 'normal' windy day anyway, but then that's how 95%+ of storms that hit this country seem to go these days even if you'd often think otherwise watching the media and even weather forecasts at the time.
  13. Hurricane Irma

    I did think that but it does look very intense so maybe, if it was recorded in that video clip (I presume he meant gust though)
  14. Hurricane Irma

    The winds/gusts seem low but, then again one of the streams showed the radar was indicating 160-170 winds a few hours ago at 2000ft above the ground in the NE eyewall, though in quite a localised area, and with the intense convection in that part of the eye wall presumably that could be brought down to near the surface. Then there was this video video with the hand held anemometer recording 117mph which he claimed under-reads (the only video I've really seen with conditions I'd expect in a cat 3+ eye wall Have NHC recon done any dropsondes measuring surface winds recently?
  15. Summer 2017 Discussion

    I feel it's a slightly surprising record too as it's reached 35C in September before and reached 34.4C on the 13th September last year, and to that effect the notability's been a bit over-done by some. Local radio station on Sunday bigged it up as possible 'record temperatures' (not making it clear it was just the bank holiday record). Anyway, a very welcome nice 3/4 days here which has raised August's overall rating slightly, although it seems we're going to miss out by a hair's width here today, and then tomorrow is forecast a max of 14C.