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Evening thunder

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Evening thunder last won the day on June 3 2011

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About Evening thunder

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    The best time for a thunderstorm

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    Male
  • Location
    Near Sidmouth, East Devon (a few miles inland)
  • Interests
    Weather...
    Geography.. i.e rivers, volcanoes etc..
    Nature
    photography
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer: Warm/thundery. Winter: mainly frosty/snowy. Autumn/Spring: Mixed

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  1. I've noticed a few posts etc moaning about warmth for one or two days (the usual). We've had a poor August bad for holiday makers and farmers etc, and it means the coming seasonal change will feel even less present as usual.. Some places haven't had an above average day since July so I think a couple moan free warm days wouldn't go amiss! lol
  2. August 1998 and August 2007

    I sometimes think of August 2006 and possibly 2013 as a bit underrated (or perhaps just better here than most of the country with 2006, the anomaly maps suggest that to an extent) August 2006 didn't seem that bad to me even after July, it averaged similar to August 2016 at Exeter airport, though 2006 actually had a warmer mean than any August since. It got briefly hot again with 28C on the 6th, not reached in August since..., and only once failed to reach 20C with 19C on the 25th, again not matched since.. though these stats speak far more about recent Augusts than 2006! August 2013 is possibly on my list because I've heard it spoken about in not too favourable terms (though I'm not sure of the average opinion). Here it had a lot of pleasant low-mid 20's weather with the mean maxima finishing about 1C above average. 2013 and 2016 are the only decent Augusts since 2006 though.
  3. Yeah, I was thinking about what the likes of GP, Tamera, and to an extent the Met Office and also their seasonal probability maps were going for . Even more worrying if the CFS was close to the mark this summer then lol (well not really for me I guess as it might be wrong and worrying won't change anything)
  4. This is what worries me and makes the current weather/outlook and change from previous thoughts even worse.. RIP seasonal variability. Of course, we could hope that goes the same way as the summer thoughts but it feels more likely to be correct somehow.. one wouldn't bet against it that's for sure.
  5. Autumn thoughts

    Haha yep that's what I was thinking, thought of August to December 2015 when the monthly anomalies started off negative and became progressively more positive.
  6. Yeah, I tend to not let much slip apart from to close family/friends that understand or I make it clear it needs a large dose of salt. I remember some good forecasting successes such as winter 2010/11 from the likes of Glacier Point etc, probably got my hopes up a bit too much. Still, why do I get the feeling that some recent charts for Autumn into Winter will be far more successful...lol Anyway, I can't complain about the first half of summer down here (has been worse up north), just a shame after all that promise it had to go so wrong (for my preferences) and not leave a good feeling summer overall.
  7. Autumn thoughts

    5.6C overnight here, but every summer month bar one in the last 10 years has managed a min below 7C. I'll probably be in summer mode until September as August is very much a summer month and looks/feels like it here (even if the forecast is more like September lol). Also daylight is of course still longer than anywhere south of us, and similar to what hot summer places like Rome etc get at the solstice. I do like some aspects of Autumn, but it's much better after a good summer/August so it feels like proper seasonal change.. based on the outlook, and some longer range seasonal charts, we might just get similar conditions for several months!!
  8. Seems we're stuck in a pattern we can't get out of, any hints of improvement put back but I knew I shouldn't believe any false dawns. For me this pattern has been somewhat disappointing. Especially considering what had been presented as 'very likely' etc... To be honest I can't help but feel too much weight can be put on mid/longer term signals etc given that often over the past year (when they've been interesting enough for me to remember) they seem to have been wrong.. Just like last winter's very bad luck, and some nice weather in early July did happen in the south after almost being dismissed. Anyway, even the pacific NW is getting a major heatwave, in places even more intense than we can get.. I probably wouldn't want it that hot but coupled with how I often watched sub zero maxima and -15 850hpa charts last winter for places like Vancouver, even their oceanic climate puts our samey crap to shame. In my records (9 years, 2008-16) August's mean maxima has averaged nearly 1C below the local 1981-10 average... The models are getting worse.. looking at the ECM, we're struggling to even get 850's above 5C now unless it's with a frontal system Goodness knows when I'll next get even an average day! Needed to vent some frustration, but think I have good reason to be annoyed, especially as this is coinciding perfectly with my 3 weeks off.
  9. Anyway, interesting developments in the western channel as long as it doesn't explode then blow itself out before reaching here lol. Some models have suggested such, but some also look good. Not going to concentrate too much on specific cells at the moment though as they often die only for others to form
  10. Haha, Interestingly in the last few days they often did use 'thunderstorms' and sometimes said with the risk of hail, now though it's changed to thundery showers. it feels like it depends on who's writing the forecasts. Edit: Actually just realised it does say 'isolated thunderstorms' for this afternoon and 'Thunderstorms clearing to the north' tomorrow morning lol Then there's the warning for 'thundery showers' where 'these showers' may cause localised flooding of homes, frequent lightning, and hail Though the chief forecaster's assessment does then say thunderstorms.
  11. Same here, from the Met Office tonight my region has 'A band of thundery showers pushing north with frequent lightning possible'
  12. Haha that's the more appropriate phrase. I'm hoping so, especially as my area went between the late May storms and apart from that there's only been a few very distant rumbles this year.. Would be good if it was widespread and shared out with many though. Not for me, the time of interest here has been generally shown to be around late afternoon and evening. if it does actually look like this up to midnight (it shows storms in the western channel around mid-day and afternoon but weakens them), then it's probably over for me. Suppose those little showers in the south could be the start of storms initiating to hit further north though
  13. Lol, Euro4 weakens stuff and curves the most intense storms into the near continent.. a bit like that time in June. It usually finds a way. Hopefully not this time..
  14. Selfishly speaking that'd be nice, especially as my location was in that gap around Lyme Bay on the May 27th storms: Although I am sort of worrying it may be further east a bit more like the ECM 00z, GFS continues to look slightly different/further west to me.. but really it's not worth me getting too hung up on the models yet, just wait and see
  15. The ECM run is a bit ridiculous though. How can it go so wrong compared to what was showing and everything was pointing to. Hey ho, a few people such as one who posts gleefully about 'apples falling off the cart' will be happy. If that does happen I hope it's at least sunshine and convective showers rather than stuck frontal systems in the low or a slight correction bringing dull stable NW'erlies, but it will probably be the latter. What looked like the best period of summer may well turn into the worst week of summer. Funnily, the best spells this summer weren't really picked out by models and longer range tools more than 7-10 days before if I recall correctly. Similar thing happened in winter when we had very bad luck with another perfectly timed disturbance... In fact I'm kind of questioning/getting frustrated with the weighting given to these longer range tools when they've often seemed wrong recently, at least when I remember them or they've suggested an interesting outlook.
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