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Evening thunder

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Evening thunder last won the day on June 3 2011

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About Evening thunder

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    The best time for a thunderstorm

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    Male
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    Near Sidmouth, East Devon (a few miles inland)
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    Weather...
    Geography.. i.e rivers, volcanoes etc..
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    photography
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer: Warm/thundery. Winter: mainly frosty/snowy. Autumn/Spring: Mixed

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  1. Bit of a late reply but we also had the the orange/red-pink sun and weird light on Monday morning. Was impressive to see and the dust/smoke suddenly cleared just before noon. I found these satellite images interesting, you can clearly see the dust/smoke in the frontal band. and yesterday a smokey/dusty plume stretched all the way from SE England across to Russia! As for the weather since then a damp afternoon/evening yesterday with 3.4mm of rain and a lot colder than the day before (Monday was 18C at 7am, Tuesday 5C with a max of 12.8C)
  2. Hurricane Ophelia

    Well tbh, I don't think it will be quite as bad as a few posts in here this evening. I'm struggling to see Northern Ireland upgrading to a red warning tbh, unless I've missed something (which is possible!) and some models are showing far higher winds than many. The GFS only has gusts up to the 60's for most of NI and maybe the 70's on the Irish sea coasts. For southern (maybe central) Ireland I think a red warning (on the UK Met Office scheme) would be justified, where 80-90mph gusts seem realistic (though a few models show the chance of 100mph gusts reaching the south coast with slightly slower weakening of the exceptional winds progged to the south of Ireland? For other areas, not severe enough for a red warning IMO with most models generally showing 70-80 mph gusts max (excluding the usual topographically enhanced gusts/super exposed sites) For some of these areas, more severe storms have happened recently, (e.g. 12th Feb 2014). No models that I can see suggest 90-100 mph gusts widespread up Irish sea coasts like a recent post said... So I don't think it will be comparable to 1987 for most (Shoreham had a 115mph gust then (over 130mph recorded in N France)), except Southern Ireland has a chance of getting close if some high res models are correct, even if not, don't get me wrong, it will be a severe storm that needs taking seriously there (Edit: then I see Nick L's post..lol) Though I was a bit surprised that the western fringes of Wales weren't given an amber warning though, given models showing 70-80mph gusts and very large waves, but the Met Office are bigger experts than me. Personally I wish I could get myself to Pembrokeshire or similar for tomorrow as 75 mph gusts and very large seas could be quite spectacular.
  3. Hurricane Ophelia

    I've noticed that although still intense for Ireland, some models such as the ECM develop extremely tight isobars south of Ireland This weakens considerably by landfall even though the system is still prorogued to bring 80mph perhaps locally 90mph gusts to southern Ireland Those really tight isobars are probably associated with charts showing gusts over 100mph south of Ireland. Some models like the ARPEGE posted earlier probably go a bit OTT, as the peak it gusts it shows of 222km/h is 138mph! I presume a sting jet might be in play too. Quite remarkable really and I'd imagine about the strongest storms get that close to the UK, so it's a good thing that's to the south of Ireland.
  4. Hurricane Ophelia

    Well I doubt it would be severe enough to destroy homes and hopefully livelihoods, and I think most 'fanatics' wouldn't want it to be that severe and no-one wants lives lost.. but that's an understandable view as long as you don't like cold and snow given it's adverse effects, Ice Man. I like both snow/cold and some severe weather and you can't blame weather enthusiasts on a weather forum for finding these things interesting. For my location it looks nothing more than a 'normal' windy day anyway, but then that's how 95%+ of storms that hit this country seem to go these days even if you'd often think otherwise watching the media and even weather forecasts at the time.
  5. Hurricane Irma

    I did think that but it does look very intense so maybe, if it was recorded in that video clip (I presume he meant gust though)
  6. Hurricane Irma

    The winds/gusts seem low but, then again one of the streams showed the radar was indicating 160-170 winds a few hours ago at 2000ft above the ground in the NE eyewall, though in quite a localised area, and with the intense convection in that part of the eye wall presumably that could be brought down to near the surface. Then there was this video video with the hand held anemometer recording 117mph which he claimed under-reads (the only video I've really seen with conditions I'd expect in a cat 3+ eye wall Have NHC recon done any dropsondes measuring surface winds recently?
  7. Summer 2017 Discussion

    I feel it's a slightly surprising record too as it's reached 35C in September before and reached 34.4C on the 13th September last year, and to that effect the notability's been a bit over-done by some. Local radio station on Sunday bigged it up as possible 'record temperatures' (not making it clear it was just the bank holiday record). Anyway, a very welcome nice 3/4 days here which has raised August's overall rating slightly, although it seems we're going to miss out by a hair's width here today, and then tomorrow is forecast a max of 14C.
  8. A very nice welcome few days of weather, yesterday the first virtually full sunshine day and the warmest day since July, with a max temp of 24.5C Slightly disappointing levels of both atmospheric haze and high cloud this morning though meaning rather weak sun.. Hopefully this clears, it might stop us actually managing to reach 25C this month.
  9. I've noticed a few posts etc moaning about warmth for one or two days (the usual). We've had a poor August bad for holiday makers and farmers etc, and it means the coming seasonal change will feel even less present as usual.. Some places haven't had an above average day since July so I think a couple moan free warm days wouldn't go amiss! lol
  10. August 1998 and August 2007

    I sometimes think of August 2006 and possibly 2013 as a bit underrated (or perhaps just better here than most of the country with 2006, the anomaly maps suggest that to an extent) August 2006 didn't seem that bad to me even after July, it averaged similar to August 2016 at Exeter airport, though 2006 actually had a warmer mean than any August since. It got briefly hot again with 28C on the 6th, not reached in August since..., and only once failed to reach 20C with 19C on the 25th, again not matched since.. though these stats speak far more about recent Augusts than 2006! August 2013 is possibly on my list because I've heard it spoken about in not too favourable terms (though I'm not sure of the average opinion). Here it had a lot of pleasant low-mid 20's weather with the mean maxima finishing about 1C above average. 2013 and 2016 are the only decent Augusts since 2006 though.
  11. Yeah, I was thinking about what the likes of GP, Tamera, and to an extent the Met Office and also their seasonal probability maps were going for . Even more worrying if the CFS was close to the mark this summer then lol (well not really for me I guess as it might be wrong and worrying won't change anything)
  12. This is what worries me and makes the current weather/outlook and change from previous thoughts even worse.. RIP seasonal variability. Of course, we could hope that goes the same way as the summer thoughts but it feels more likely to be correct somehow.. one wouldn't bet against it that's for sure.
  13. Autumn thoughts

    Haha yep that's what I was thinking, thought of August to December 2015 when the monthly anomalies started off negative and became progressively more positive.
  14. Yeah, I tend to not let much slip apart from to close family/friends that understand or I make it clear it needs a large dose of salt. I remember some good forecasting successes such as winter 2010/11 from the likes of Glacier Point etc, probably got my hopes up a bit too much. Still, why do I get the feeling that some recent charts for Autumn into Winter will be far more successful...lol Anyway, I can't complain about the first half of summer down here (has been worse up north), just a shame after all that promise it had to go so wrong (for my preferences) and not leave a good feeling summer overall.
  15. Autumn thoughts

    5.6C overnight here, but every summer month bar one in the last 10 years has managed a min below 7C. I'll probably be in summer mode until September as August is very much a summer month and looks/feels like it here (even if the forecast is more like September lol). Also daylight is of course still longer than anywhere south of us, and similar to what hot summer places like Rome etc get at the solstice. I do like some aspects of Autumn, but it's much better after a good summer/August so it feels like proper seasonal change.. based on the outlook, and some longer range seasonal charts, we might just get similar conditions for several months!!
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