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Everything posted by Climate Man
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Climate Man replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I studied the effect of lakes on local microclimate. Main finding was that moderating from the water was more localised when winds were lighter as you would expect. Therefore "stagnant " may he good. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Climate Man replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Arctic actual cold currently, around long term average. 1958 - 2022 -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Climate Man replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol, not a clue but as low pressure rolling through is often gfs reverting to type, perhaps a new signal is being picked up. -
Yes, most fantastic blizzard in my lifetime. Live in Warwickshire and our village had to come together to dig ourselves out.
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Our water reservoirs, Severn Trent, have finally shown a small increase in their levels.
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
Climate Man replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
September is in my book usually the most predictable and stable month with the least devation from the mean. Certainly at my weather station. September this year has has two dramatically different halves that will result in an average overall month.. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Climate Man replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
December 2.5 deg above my station average over last 30 years. January 0.7 above. February 1.8 above. Not a snow flake. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Climate Man replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I have to agree with markyo, awful winter. Nothing here resembling winter. Perpetual autumn. -
Leave our heating on all year and rely on thermostats. Tepid radiators at 6am. Love this time of year (heat costs aside)
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
Climate Man replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Lots of heavy rain at around 10pm last night in Stratford upon Avon. Fantastic lightning display. Unfortunately rain guage which was working in the afternoon, measured nothing.........really annoying and need to take a look. -
We need some new reservoirs. Syphon of flood water as save for a rainy day.....whoops, dry day. Seriously our infrastructure is rubbish.
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Where did they say that? Saw ITV weather this am say hot and sunny in SE. Raining nicely here.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Climate Man replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just shows how difficult long-term modelling/forecasting is. The year was expected to be above average. Time yet for some action but surely cannot go from nowt to above average. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Climate Man replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That works with the theory of greater warming in the Arctic but the last 4 months there have seen temps at or below average and hot down here so gradient should be greater. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Climate Man replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Freeze never really ended in the Arctic. Temps at or below average for the last 4 months. There is some balance in effect across the NH -
The clue is in the thread title.....begone sun worshiper
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Climate Man replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Karl prefer you in coldie mode. Had enough now! -
Well we now know that they will appear next week due to the law of sod. Thank you from the storm lovers
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I love de icing the car! I'm a bit extreme even for this thread. Would be happy if it never got over 20 deg so long as sun came out occasionally. Would happily live with 10 deg mid summer and not joking! Perfect day for me is end Oct. Ground frost and a max of 10 with some hazy autumn sunshine. 365 days would be fine.
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Early forecasts that I saw were for a busy season. Just shows how difficult even medium term modelling is. Still plenty of toime yet though. At least we didn't have one in February this year.
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Went for a run. Cold shower. Not sure why I used a towel. No help at all!
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Better get more flights up then not less. Perfect example of interlinked feedback.
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I agree with both of you......the greenhouse science is fine. However, there is no scientific way of accurately measuring any natural element and the science regarding changing weather as a result of changing climate is it it's infancy. There are too many linked feedback mechanisms.