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Climate Man

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Everything posted by Climate Man

  1. For those that like storms, Monday night beginning to look really rough across all models. May warrant its own thread shortly as there is consistency there now.
  2. Yes the 850s are quite high for a very small slither of the south coast but it also looks cloudy so I would think low double figures more likely IF correct.
  3. Do you know when we last had a high pressure of this strength that hung around for a week or more? Feels like years......
  4. Still improving trends into week two on GFS. Still need a 500 mile shift NNE though!
  5. Agree entirely. Certainly we can write off 10 days but beyond that all is up for grabs and that ECM carrot is not that far away from something at least more seasonal and beyond that.....Things could look entirely different in the output by the beginning of next week.
  6. Hope you're right but it appears that the new solar cycle is beginning to stir and it would be unusual to have three consecutive years with so many spotless days. I hope we get to a hundred spotless.....
  7. In all my years of model watching the 12z ECM has to be the worst in terms of both cold and boredom. Where do we go from here? Not a clue.
  8. No, humans will slowly die. Human CO2 emissions will stop. The vegetation will grow with lots of CO2 fuel and no one to interfere and the world will return.
  9. Problem is that I love to get snow whilst sun is at a premium. Window is only really December and January.
  10. My favourite place in the world. Skied there 20 times and was there in October. There is not as much snow as parts if Italy or Austria but still this is abnormal for Mid November. The worst I saw was as far back as xmas 1989 when there was no snow at all but for a 100 m piste on the Schilthorn
  11. Slightly above average for both months in Warwickshire according to my figures but expect October to finish below, now.
  12. I took the following pictures in the Alps at the end of September. I am not a great expert on clouds and wonder if someone can help with information about the type?
  13. Does anyone have stats for Glosea seasonal forecast as I for one take no notice whatsoever at this stage....
  14. Snow may well be ahead of schedule but I am really concerned that we seem to be getting a repeat pattern from last winter. ie the euro high is causing Atlantic depressions to stall and fill to the west of the UK and thus sw/w winds prevail.
  15. That is the exact forecast that I put out to my friends for that period last week. It does seem that there is a model trend in that direction and hopefully it will firm up over the next 48 hours - perfect!
  16. I agree, I am running 1.6 degrees above average fir my location and it has felt wet and miserable. Actually, looking at the charts as we run up to the month end we will end warm and wet, true of this summer generally
  17. Thank you for all of this Roger, will be very happy to look at this with a very open mind.
  18. Driving in Germany in winter once on autobahn. Heavy snow and drivers side wiper arm flew off onto the night. Was cold though and most snow blew away.
  19. FV3 FI, is though, a thing of beauty and one day it will be correct - won't it!?
  20. More or a less a year to the day when the Beast first showed.
  21. It was about 5th February when first sign of Beast showed on GFS. Was looking poor at the time.
  22. Back in the 1980s I wrote a detailed paper on the accuracy of the BBC forecast that followed the 9pm news. I came up with my own method and corresponded with them, particularly Jim Bacon. I can't remember the way round but my figures and theirs were 85% and 87%. Thus my method seemed to work. My gut feel is that accuracy is currently suffering - climate change - man made or otherwise? Something is different. Not extremes such as in the States or Australia but something. I don't still have my methodology but it would have been fun to run the exact same test.
  23. MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?
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