Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

Climate Man

Members
  • Content Count

    89
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

29 Good

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Midlands
  • Interests
    Weather, Climate, History,
  • Weather Preferences
    Very Cold, Very Snowy

Recent Profile Visitors

2,463 profile views
  1. That is the exact forecast that I put out to my friends for that period last week. It does seem that there is a model trend in that direction and hopefully it will firm up over the next 48 hours - perfect!
  2. I agree, I am running 1.6 degrees above average fir my location and it has felt wet and miserable. Actually, looking at the charts as we run up to the month end we will end warm and wet, true of this summer generally
  3. Thank you for all of this Roger, will be very happy to look at this with a very open mind.
  4. Driving in Germany in winter once on autobahn. Heavy snow and drivers side wiper arm flew off onto the night. Was cold though and most snow blew away.
  5. FV3 FI, is though, a thing of beauty and one day it will be correct - won't it!?
  6. More or a less a year to the day when the Beast first showed.
  7. It was about 5th February when first sign of Beast showed on GFS. Was looking poor at the time.
  8. Back in the 1980s I wrote a detailed paper on the accuracy of the BBC forecast that followed the 9pm news. I came up with my own method and corresponded with them, particularly Jim Bacon. I can't remember the way round but my figures and theirs were 85% and 87%. Thus my method seemed to work. My gut feel is that accuracy is currently suffering - climate change - man made or otherwise? Something is different. Not extremes such as in the States or Australia but something. I don't still have my methodology but it would have been fun to run the exact same test.
  9. MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?
  10. MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?
  11. I have a January mean in Warwickshire a degree colder than 2018. Winter was very late and still not even a twinkle bin the eye on 28th January.
  12. It was only 5th/6th Feb when first signs of Beast showed up on GFS!
  13. It seems to me that we are still in the very early stages of learning about the effect of SSWs. Until we have a much more refined view that can successfully be programmed in to the model algorithms, we will be left chasing our tails during and post these events.
  14. BBC Weather last night indicated a small arm of the jet heading due north over UK and taking that with it.
  15. BBC forecast I saw ten mins ago said "there may even be a bit of snow about" no mention of short lived......
×
×
  • Create New...