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Climate Man

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    85
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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Midlands
  • Interests
    Weather, Climate, History,
  • Weather Preferences
    Very Cold, Very Snowy

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  1. FV3 FI, is though, a thing of beauty and one day it will be correct - won't it!?
  2. More or a less a year to the day when the Beast first showed.
  3. It was about 5th February when first sign of Beast showed on GFS. Was looking poor at the time.
  4. Climate Man

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Back in the 1980s I wrote a detailed paper on the accuracy of the BBC forecast that followed the 9pm news. I came up with my own method and corresponded with them, particularly Jim Bacon. I can't remember the way round but my figures and theirs were 85% and 87%. Thus my method seemed to work. My gut feel is that accuracy is currently suffering - climate change - man made or otherwise? Something is different. Not extremes such as in the States or Australia but something. I don't still have my methodology but it would have been fun to run the exact same test.
  5. Climate Man

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?
  6. Climate Man

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?
  7. Climate Man

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I have a January mean in Warwickshire a degree colder than 2018. Winter was very late and still not even a twinkle bin the eye on 28th January.
  8. It was only 5th/6th Feb when first signs of Beast showed up on GFS!
  9. It seems to me that we are still in the very early stages of learning about the effect of SSWs. Until we have a much more refined view that can successfully be programmed in to the model algorithms, we will be left chasing our tails during and post these events.
  10. BBC Weather last night indicated a small arm of the jet heading due north over UK and taking that with it.
  11. BBC forecast I saw ten mins ago said "there may even be a bit of snow about" no mention of short lived......
  12. Climate Man

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    Nothing wrong with that as may introduce a snow opportunity in it's own right and colder air does arrive. Also better heights Atlantic and Greenland
  13. There is a firm trend towards cooler conditions with the GFS again pushing everything further south. Even a shallow surface high appearing over Greenland now!
  14. Climate Man

    December 1981

    That was my first weekend in my bachalor pad. Woke up to no power and evacuated back home - took 3 hours to do 6 miles.
  15. Climate Man

    December 1981

    Had a light dusting of snow on a Tuesday night - I think about 8th December. My Mum sais it was too early in the winter to last...! The rest is history and there was snow on the ground until after Christmas. I think we had 4 days without snow until the great January blizzard which was better than everything in December - those were the days....I even kept my own weather readings then and ran the school weather station.
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