J07
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The pressure fell to 981hPa earlier when it passed over Raoul Island. Latest warning, now only gale:
GALE WARNING 059
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [986hPa] centre was located near 29.8 South 174.5 West at 030600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 29.8S 174.5W at 030600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 35 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 031800 UTC.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.
Forecast position near 33.4S 170.9W at 031800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 052.
Issued at 7:15pm Tuesday 3 Apr 2012
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Named recently by Nadi RSMC. It was previously TD19F. Looks like it will miss populated islands, which is consistent with model predictions over the last few days.
It will enter Wellington's AOR fairly soon, Nadi currently have it as a TC down to 35S which is quite a long way. However, CYRIL did maintain TC status to roughly that latitude.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 02/0254 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 172.7E
AT 020100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED
WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP
GIVING DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 021300 UTC 22.4S 176.7E MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 030100 UTC 26.5S 179.6W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 031300 UTC 30.6S 175.8W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 040100 UTC 33.9S 173.0W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON DAPHNE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 020830 UTC.
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48 hours ago the eye passed near southern Vanuatu as shown above. Mean speeds of over 80 knots and pressures down to 951hPa were reported.
Wellington are in charge of this now and have intensity at 70kt:
WHNZ41 NZKL 100636
HURRICANE WARNING 198
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8 SOUTH
172.8 EAST AT 100600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 25.8S 172.8E AT 100600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 8 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.2S 174.1E AT 101800 UTC
AND NEAR 26.2S 175.4E AT 110600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 194.
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Still being called a TC at 06Z:
WTNZ41 NZKL 080617
GALE WARNING 158
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7 SOUTH
157.5 WEST AT 080600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 29.7S 157.5W AT 080600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM SOUTH THROUGH WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO
EAST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 30.7S 154.1W AT 081800 UTC
AND NEAR 31.9S 147.9W AT 090600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 154.
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Surely it will be reclassified after this.....
WTNZ41 NZKL 080034
GALE WARNING 154
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5 SOUTH
161.1 WEST AT 080000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 27.5S 161.1W AT 080000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.9S 156.9W AT 081200 UTC
AND NEAR 31.3S 152.0W AT 090000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 150.
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Dan Corbett back in action: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc3LX2R1XM8&feature=youtu.be
There will be about 500mm in the ranges by then time this is over. Nelson Airport had 200mm today, its wettest day ever. In the ranges, about double that has fallen.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6138101/State-of-emergency-declared-in-Nelson
Meanwhile, although less than 100 miles away, there has been fewer than 2mm of rain in Wellington and Blenheim.
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Reached 22C in Whangarei today, with a dewpoint at the time of 15C, so would not have felt at all like winter up there.
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Was that the end of the really cold weather for Winter of 2010/2011, or did you have a return in January?
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Thanks for the info all
Gives me more to look into! By the sounds of it, even though not the only way, it may be worth looking into studying at University!I think these days, with big fees, you really have to be certain that University is where you want to go before making the plunge!
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There definitely used to be a lot of "technical officers" in the meteorological world that did not necessarily have degrees. They worked as assistants, observers and the like (John Holmes no doubt can elaborate). Unfortunately I think their numbers are now dwindling due to increasing computerisation (i.e. automatic weather stations replacing observers, and charts now be plotted by computer rather than by hand).
However, it sounds like your skills could eventually be put to use in the practical aspects that still remain. For example, observing networks still require maintenance, and expansion of observing networks requires project management. If you did want to go the more theoretical route and go to university, your slightly unusual background could make you stand out from the competition.
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After snow and constant cold temperatures last week, today Christchurch was sunny with a high of 21C. Should be fairly similar conditions there the next two days.
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The MetService Blog has been well updated through this event: http://blog.metservice.com/2011/08/the-big-chill/
Quiet, mild weather expected to prevail from Sunday.
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Funny you say that... When I was in Wellington in July (2003), the weather felt very like one of those feeble 90s/early 00s attempts at a winter polar maritime/NW'ly airflow; with the temperature hovering around 8C despite a howling SW (ie our NW) wind which made it feel more like 0C, and horizontal rain much of the time. With the best hope of wintriness being a dusting above 500m or so. It was so localised too, 10-15 miles away the sunny days/frosty nights pattern typical of the central N island and eastern S Island seemed to predominate.
Yeah, Wellington far too often misses out on the sunny days/frosty nights that so many other places in the vicinity get. It can happen here though, we just need a stable SW flow and it can be calm and sunny. But push the SW flow a little too much in either direction and you end up either with wet southerlies or horrible cold windy northerlies.
Here's an aerial video of the Wellington hills: http://www.stuff.co.nz/lightbox/national/5453107/?KeepThis=true&TB_iframe=true&height=560&width=640
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Last major snow in Wellington region was 1995, but nothing in the city. In 1976 it snowed in the city and some significant falls around the suburbs.
It is normal in Wellington for the coldest snap of any typical winter to bring a dusting to 400m. So what we have now is very unusual. It has now snowed for 3 days running in Wellington, which is amazing. Yesterday we had thundersnow too!
Meanwhile, in Auckland they had their coldest ever day yesterday. A maximum at the airport of 8C. A light snow fall fell in the city centre but it was pretty feeble. Enough to dust the arm of your jacket then melt immediately!
By the sounds of it, for Auckland and the rest of the North Island this is the coldest, snowiest outbreak since 1939 (the last time it snowed in Auckland city). 1939 though was apparently much colder and snowier, with actual accumulations persisting to a few hundred metres in Auckland, and reported drifts of ten metres in the South Island. We may never see anything like that again.
In Wellington yesterday evening, when it stopped snowing the temperature was 2C and for several hours gusts of 50 knots from the south. Today it was sitting around 5C or 6C with a dewpoint of around -3C, then it snowed for 30 mins, then hailed, now it's raining.
It's the first time in Wellington I've ever experienced truly "wintry" conditions. Normally the coldest blasts here feel like a UK northerly November "toppler", and are pretty shortlived.
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If a mod sees this could they please merge this topic with "Autumn and Winter 2011"? Seems a bit bonkers having a thread for autumn and winter and a separate thread for winter.......especially since they were both started by me. Oops.
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One of the coldest outbreaks for years has started today. At 12:30PM it's only 1C in Invercargill. Snow to sea level for the South Island today, and it may be as low as 500m when the blast reaches Auckland and 600m in Northland, which is really something special.
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Here's one of Dan Corbett's "Weekend Weather" videos for the NZ MetService:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVh_6CmY98Y
(Quite a dramatic weekend coming up).
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Last year there was a very cold snap into South Africa during the World Cup IIRC.
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If you know "advanced" mathematics (that means different things to different people, I am assuming at least degree standard) then Holton should be penetrable. It's very rigorous and mathematical but in terms of meteorology pretty much starts at the bottom and works its way up quickly...mostly using maths.
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May was the warmest ever, coming in at 2.4C above average. The previous warmest May was only 2007: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10442383
Perhaps things will change soon. A series of troughs are passing over NZ, and the intense blocking high is moving slowly away to the east. This helped temperatures reach 22C in Whitianga today. Auckland this afternoon was 21/16, very warm and humid for the time of year.
It looks like a disturbed pattern for the near future with no real sign of any more intense highs forming over or east of NZ.
The ski fields are currently in a bit of bother: http://www.3news.co.nz/Record-warm-May-stunts-ski-season/tabid/423/articleID/213677/Default.aspx
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Gusts to 95 knots on Stewart Island today. The maximum temperature for the country was 25C in Hastings. So far this month, the national high has always been above 20C.
Yesterday, Wellington's daytime maximum (20C) happened around 8PM, when it was dark and windy.
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Revised to one casualty. There are lots of tornados in NZ, but they mostly form on fronts and aren't very damaging. This was different, and very rare for NZ.
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/video-extraordinary-footage-auckland-tornado-0-39-4153067
The above footage is the best so far, shows the twister crossing the road!
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Small fry compared to the US, but significant storm for NZ.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/4956336/Tornado-strikes-Auckland-leaves-trail-of-destruction
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Am I right in assuming 2010 was a cold year? I'm pretty sure Summer was very cool, how was Autumn and Winter?
Last summer was cool but there was a drought in the north and it was quite warm there. But March and April were very warm and sunny in 2010, and February was pretty good also. January was the shocker, especially in these parts!
Autumn 2010 didn't kick off until mid May and there was one particular storm that was very serious for the east of the South Island. The rest of the winter was by comparison uneventful, then in September we had some of the strongest SW flows we've had for ages, with a snowstorm that collapsed the stadium roof in Invercargill.
October was then very settled, and likewise November. Really Oct/Nov 2010 were more typical of summer weather than spring, then from December onwards we've been in a persistent La Nina type summer, with high dewpoints and warm nights and plenty of rain.
Today the national high was 26C (again), but this time in Wanganui which is in the central North Island and would have had a foehn warmed northerly.
Wellington had a foggy morning then lots of sunshine, no wind and a high of 20C with dewpoints in the 15-16C mark.
Gives me more to look into! By the sounds of it, even though not the only way, it may be worth looking into studying at University!
On Course For The Quiestest South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season On Record
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
What went wrong? A few thoughts:
1) Notably unsettled summer over New Zealand. Highs have been too far south. Typical NZ summer has migratory anticyclones, with intervening troughs. When a replacement high builds, it often gives a surge of easterlies into the tropics and this helps with initial development of a disturbance. This has rarely happened this year.
2) In conjunction with (1) there has been a lot of subtropical depressions this year. i.e. a mixture of frontal lows forming close to 30S, also some hybrid subtropical cyclones. All this hinders the development in the tropics. This was partly helped by highs being a long way south. There was lots of blocking to the southeast of NZ this summer.
3) MJO active phases in these longitudes have resulted in reasonably tropical cyclogenesis, but I think we also ended up with very ugly, messy monsoonal flooding rains. There were plenty of lows forming on the MT (extending over the Solomons, Vanuatu and notably Fiji) that in India would be called monsoon depressions. They were never really looking like becoming TCs.
4) Jasmine was a very strange TC. Named by Brisbane, long lived in Nadi's area, long lived in Wellington's area, then returns to Nadi's area and comes very close to re-entering Wellington's area as a TC. This sort of oddness typifies the season I think!
On the whole, a quiet season for TCs, but an extremely expensive one for Fiji which has had two long periods of serious flooding rains.