Tony Gilbert

Hi Paul. Thanks for that. Though whilst I can get to that page through your link it seems strange that this forum is not shown in the main forum listing?

Hi do we have a forum or which forum can I use to sell a weather gadget? Thanks in advance! Tony

Hi Chris, Yes working with SLT provided me with some great experiences and a wealth of knowledge. Though you never really stop learning where storm chasing is concerned! I now prefer to chase with friends or other likeminded individuals. A chase vacation in the USA is also a social event where you can share the adventure with others. Hence the reasoning behind this thread. We are hoping to meet up for pub lunch at some point before xmas. Though I notice this could be a problem for yourself, re distance!

Intro; My name is Tony Gilbert . I live on the south coast in Gosport, Hampshire. Many of you may know me through my regular convective outlooks on the UKWW forum. I'm a member of the TORRO team and have worked two seasons as a professional driver/guide for the 'Silver Lining Tours' in the USA. I also have eleven consecutive years of experience chasing in the USA 'DIY'. About me! Hi All, just wondering who here is considering chasing USA DIY in 2013? A thread is started over on the UKWW forum to see who's taking the plunge. The reasoning here is that you may wish to either meet up at some point with our chase vacation or even arrange it directly with us! Probably worth mentioning that unless you are either confident with travelling abroad or have basic knowledge around big storms then the Netweather Tour might suit you better. This post is more orientated around members who want to make up a small team or number of teams for chasing state side devoid of any guidance. This would be a voluntary social arrangement and not a paid professional tour. The cheapest flight will often be available between Dec and Jan, hence the reasoning behind this early heads up! You might expect to pay around £500.00 return for your flight and maybe another £2,000. for car rental shared, hotel rooms shared, fuel shared and food. But this can vary quite a bit each year! Storm chasing on the great plains is by no means a cheap holiday and can include a lot of driving with some fatigue. Though if the two weeks are fruitful you might expect to witness, photo and video some of the best storms on the planet! Anyway please feel free to post your questions or interest here! Tony

Slight Risk of Tornado Development 09Z-18Z NW Eire through to SW Scotland Deep depression west of Ireland shown to develop cold front/ occluded front through Saturday effecting heavy rain and post frontal convective showers in the lee of the front, primarily Ireland & Scotland. GFS and MMN look to be in complete contrast? Specific attention in this instance is given once again to the post frontal sector directly behind the occlusion NW Eire through to SW Scotland. GFS suggests subsidence and CIN lags way behind the initial frontal boundary allowing the potential for a secondary wave of isolated strong convection as a very dry mid level intrusion moving north overruns a moist axis advecting from the south across Ireland under a moderately deep upper trough. A broad region of lift is likely to occur across the front left exit region of the strong upper jet stream. This outward fanning is now looking quite acute and has particularly caught my attention within the last model run. ...So ATM we have the potential upper support required for strong sustained convective storm cells. Very little veer at surface though speed shear within the lowest level is phenomenal. Such condition can often be attributed to strong narrow short tracked tornadoes! Low level spin can often become very efficient indeed and not necessary attributed directly to mesocyclone genesis! Further risk of near severe wind gust pos 50kts ATM calculated based on a mean average flow between 800 mb and 600mb. It is nevertheless noted that the forecast risk level ATM is delivered as 'SLIGHT' UPDATE Whilst strong winds and heavy rain are likely right across the board. The forecast here is applied specifically to the main convective zone likely today, based on what I can see in the models. Further region of shallow line convection or squall line could occur to the southern most regions of the UK as a sharp drop in humidity values is noted 700mb overrunning a very moist axis. GFS currently attributes very little to no CAPE to this region. So this could be a learning curve for me. If true convection is realised within this sector, severe gust level could easily occur. Model update continues to show some basic potential. Forced accent looks restricted at ground level and forecast looks devoid of convergence. Hense my overall opinion now is that tornado development can only be regarded as Marginal/ Slight. Relevant height falls look to only partially overlap the flank side to the occluded front. So realistically the best risk for tornadoes and 'true' strong convective gusts will be better attributed to cells developing behind the main occlusion IMO. Certainly some strong winds likely, especially within the blue box as noted. Severe gust will be the primary risk today

UPDATE 8.40am As per earlier forecast with risk of Severe Thunderstorms/ Tornadoes Canceled. Upper jet moves away to the east much faster than earlier prediction leaving fairly weak upper support in place. Low level jet remains in place for a time and could create enough low level shear when interacting with surface convergence to create the odd funnel today. The south coast has already seen the first trough run through with some strong embedded convection within a sheared environment though this looks to lessen somewhat across the far SE of the UK through this morning. Potential instability looks to become less potent compared with earlier predictions and is probably only utilised by mid afternoon where there is a chance of some isolated convection behind the secondary trough feature. All in all still a good day to chase with IMO prime risk running from Somerset through to E. Anglia through the afternoon. I will try to update after lunch.

11pm Thurs Moderate Risk of Scattered Thunderstorms Eire, southern Scotland & UK 06Z-21Z Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms/ Tornado Development 12Z-21Z Central South and SE Region UK inc E.Anglia. UKMO Fax chart predicts vigorous surface troughing from fairly early on in the day. Whilst the risk of storms looks fairly wide spread, specific focus here is made to the region that is vertically sheared (red box). Long wave upper trough continues to deepen and move east through Friday increasing lapse rates rather rapidly over mild seas to the west and later in the morning over solar heating at surface. PVA max is stacked and inline with some of the strongest CAPE. Whilst the jet stream 500mb shows just 30 kts toward central south and SE regions. The forecast conditions resemble a classic low shear/ high instability scenario with very strong CAPE values anticipated. Main restriction ATM might be meager increase in shear with height above 700mb. Dry air incursion mid levels looks to follow in behind the troughing to the SE. A NWerly low level jet 32 kts over westerly 10 kt surface vector will increase the risk of tornado development quite soon after mid day. Particularly so for Sussex and Kent. In addition to this , given the combination of fairly low freezing level and dry air, any sustained cell formation will be more than capable of producing large hail. Please note; Any attributation to a 'Severe Thunderstorm' classification will be in association with a strong thunderstorm derived from low shear/ high instability. Capable of producing severe level hail (over 3/4inch) or a tornado. It is noted that in this instance the two combined are borderline to what we would normally like to see.

10.40pm Weds An early discussion is started regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms across the UK on Friday 24th July. Based on the extended model output we could well have a number of significant conditions develop simultaneously to produce the most prolific risk of severe weather that we have seen for many months. Certainly one to keep a close eye on. On a personal note, if the models remain conducive then I will probably take the day off to attempt a chase out of necessity.

8.10am Mon UPDATE As per earlier forecast with enhanced tornado risk zone (blue box) 15Z-18Z Additional risk box added Scotland for enhanced risk of Convergence Zone Tornadoes. Based on the most recent model update there would appear to be an enhanced risk for tornadoes this afternoon from north Dorset arcing through to E.Anglia where surface vector is reduced increasing LL shear. Upper dry air incursion times in nicely and pushes in from the west creating an arcing line of isolated strong convective cells. It is within this line that severe weather potential today will peak. It is however noted that due to lack of any considerable veer at surface the risk for meso derived tornadoes today remains SLIGHT. A reminder that the broad coverage box does not mean that everyone in that box will see a storm today, but just that there is a defined risk. In fact I do not expect the thundery activity to be widespread in nature!

10pm Sun Moderate Risk of General Thundery Showers 06-21Z UK & Eire Slight Risk Severe Thunderstorm Southern Ireland, Wales and Southern UK 06-18Z Slight Risk of Strong Tornadoes Southern UK, Wales, E.Anglia and South Midlands 06-18Z Probably the most serious forecast that I have posted to the UKWW so far this year; Deep break away upper trough moves east through Monday increasing lift with steep lapse rates at all levels. Moderate divergent upper jet stream further increases lift with primary focus to the front left exit region. Increasing low level jet at 850mb establishes strong low level shear. Models currently develop high CAPE values as heavy surface moisture advects east mixing with mild air from the south. Potential instability is utilised as dry incursion pushes through inline with the predicted surface trough. Strong vertically stacked PVA max builds over Wales and moves east adding to stronger convective potential. Quite a day in store with potential for non severe convective gusts of around 30kts based on mean average values from 800mb to 600mb. Threat of large hail and defined risk of one or more strong tornado events are possible. Particular attention is given to southern UK late in the day where the low level jet is shown to increase and overrun lighter winds at surface. Whilst winds would seem to be straight lined the speed shear should compensate to increase low level field vorticity. Upper winds are strong but show only slight increase with height hense a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms is expected ATM. This situation will require close monitoring through Monday for a possible upgrade.

oo.30am Sat Moderate Risk of General Tstorms NW Ireland, Southern & Central UK regions 12Z-21Z Slight Risk of Weak Tornado Development Central South UK 12Z-18Z Synopsis is by far superior compared with recent thundery outlooks with sharp upper break away trough forcing lift and increasing lapse rates at all levels, unlike recent outlooks. Surface convergence rather weak but will on this occasion be directly influenced by sea breeze. Upper shear remains weak but strong mid level PVA is likely within the southern most sector of troughing. In addition to this we are likely to see TRUE potential instability realised along the southern most periphery of convection. Which is also in line the best predicted confluent vector at surface. At the very least the outlook for Saturday has more potential for significant thundery activity including localised weak tornado development than any day this week so far. Based on current model output if you live in North Dorset or Somerset then a good day to look to the sky's!!

Moderate Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Ireland, Scotland, Central and northern UK. 09Z-21Z Sun 14th June 09 Once again a rather low risk outlook with a good probability of widespread thundery showers. Filling quasi stationary low just west of Ireland continues to push further surface fronts across the UK & Ireland during Sunday. Upper cold pool remains in place and sustains a moderate lapse rate as surface heating once again gets under way. A weak shear profile all but precludes any suggestion of severe weather. Though some reference is given to the risk of some late troughing N.Wales. Where a mid level dry incursion runs through on 30kt winds at 500 mb. Central Scotland should develop a strong convergence zone establishing a breeding ground for the odd funnel report.

Slight Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Ireland, Scotland, Central and northern UK. 09Z-21Z Sun 14th June 09 Once again a rather low risk outlook with a good probability of widespread thundery showers. Filling quasi stationary low just west of Ireland continues to push further surface fronts across the UK & Ireland during Sunday. Upper cold pool remains in place and sustains a moderate lapse rate as surface heating once again gets under way. A weak shear profile all but precludes any suggestion of severe weather. Though some reference is given to the risk of some late troughing N.Wales. Where a mid level dry incursion runs through on 30kt winds at 500 mb.

7.20pm Fri Moderate Risk of General Thundery Showers Ireland 12Z-21Z Sat 13th 09 Models are picking up on the development of strong CAPE over Ireland for Saturday. A succession of surface troughs look to push through from the SW initiating some rather heavy showers to most parts. Sat morning shows some increase in surface temps as cloud cover shifts NE. Scattered Thunderstorms are expected to break out pretty much across the board within a poorly sheared environment. In addition to this weak upper moisture seems rather sluggish to move off. The net result will likely decrease the speed that cooling of cloud tops can occur. Any funnel development would seem negligible in the absence of any convergence.

Looks like a small funnel cloud roping out to me!...I have seen scud produce all sorts of shapes and tendrils but I have never seen scud produce this snake like appearance. But I have seen funnels do this on many occasions. Well done Wildover for bringing this to our attention

!2.50pm Thurs UPDATE As per earlier forecast with additional box added covering a Slight Risk of Moderate Tornado Development 12Z-18Z The Wash and E.Anglia Models continue to forecast an accumulation of mid level dry air incursion from the west, numerical increasing vertical wind shear, moist low level profile and increasing lapse rates as the upper trough slides south. This combination of conditions continue to suggest the development of isolated severe thunderstorms on a local scale, namely E.Anglia. Whilst uncertainties may exist regarding convergence this afternoon. Westerly moving cells on radar currently exhibits some pronounced veer approx 15 miles inland from the east coast. Storm cells are seen to intensify at this point. With surface temps already above the expected today for SE we can expect this veer to increase, intensifying storm cell development along this boundary. A slight risk is now issued for the risk of moderate tornado development this afternoon as per map.

8.20am Thurs Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers E.York through to Kent, UK 12Z-20Z Thurs 11th June 09 Slight Risk of Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Southern Portion of E.Anglia 15Z-18Z With fairly clear skys expected early on today along east coastal regions we can expect to see a steady increase in temp. Upper cold pooling rapidly slides south destabilising and increasing lapse rates for the said region. Vertical wind shear increases with height and is borderline conducive to the development of an isolated severe thunderstorm. Particular attention to this based on the GFS is given to the southern E.Anglia counties where some convergence or backing of winds could occur late in the day. Any increase in low level shear will most certainly bring the risk of an isolated tornado event into the equation. Prime threat today looks to be strong gusts (non severe) and moderate hail falls. Though, the risk of a severe thunderstorm and tornado cannot be ruled out as per red box. Certainly requires monitoring today!

8.20am Weds UPDATE As per earlier forecast with broader coverage Ireland and UK though with restriction! Upper troughing remains rather weak. Some uncertainties regarding lapse rate potential exist. Increased solar heating thus becomes paramount to today's outcome despite the GFS continuing to develop rather higher CAPE than may be practicable for the said regions. UK continues to show a rather strong convergence zone from S.Wales through to Humber. Though some uncertainties now exist regarding the risk of tornadoes given lack of potential instability close to the confluent zones. Enhanced boxes are added where mid level dry air and PVA combine and marginally overlay within the zone of CAPE.

9.45pm Mon Slight Risk Thunderstorms SW UK through to central east regions. Also Southern Ireland. 09Z-21Z Weds 10th June 09 Slight Risk of Weak CZ Tornado Development Same region (UK only) 12Z-20Z Some variations in the models might suggest a shift in the risk boxes by Tues morning. Current forecast synopsis shows the development of a surface trough with weak troughing aloft. Heavy rain looks in place for northern UK regions with a secondary surface feature building to the south within a rather unstable climate. A very moist lower level profile looks in place for central UK regions with dew point ratio putting LCL very low indeed. Whilst vertical shear looks weak at lower & mid levels it is noted that a strong confluent zone is likely to develop along a SW to NE boundary along the moisture axis. 400mb upwards shows a moderate divergent rear exiting jet stream. The combination of the two could well develop upper lift from the jet with stronger isolated cells running over a pronounced boundary at surface. Hense the Slight Risk for tornadoes. ATM negative factors are heavy saturation at mid levels, weak mid level shear with dry air spreading east from 450mb upwards. The net result could see the stronger isolated cell development occurring much later in the time range as potential instability is realised. All in all certainly one to keep an eye on.

10.40am Sun As per earlier forecast; remaining low risk. Box extended slightly further NE. Upper cold pooling looks to remains rather low across the UK increasing lapse rates primarily central south and SE (E.Anglia) UK. Mid level dry air and convergence look to be confined to the bottom left hand sector of risk box. Continued marginal risk of funnel cloud observations possible along a line of convergence Yeovil through to Watford 15Z-18Z. Slow moving cells with a blue sky back drop should make a fairly good day for chasing maybe!

Dear Moderators, it is noted that there are at least 3 threads running for Sunday. Might be a good idea to suggest that members specify a particular day for their forecast or outlook rather than 'Day X Onwards', maybe!!.... Just a constructive thought, anyway

If there is some chance that cloud cover will shift further north!...then I will be taking my son (10 yrs) on a storm chase tomorrow. Though all is ATM pretty much on a 'cliff hanger' me thinks!... Mornings model should give more detail!

Agreed guys! yes this one is pretty much on the fence. Last time I gave a forecast for a similar outlook everything went 'down the pan' as so to speak, and the forecast was a complete bust! Having said that it probably wouldn't take too much to tip the scales along the outflow boundary to the low where there is a small break in the cloud and temp rise under clear skys. So in many respects the best chance of true convection and CAPE's being realised should be around the periphery of the circulation and not the middle. Though given the restrictions in vertical shear we can only really expect pulse cell development IMO. Any suggestion of weak tornado genesis will be directly linked to rapid vertical development of any single convective cell.

6pm Sat There is a slight risk of scattered thunderstorms central south & SE UK 06Z-21Z Sun 7th June 2009 Marginal risk of brief funnel clouds ATM a rather low risk outlook with restrictions. Unseasonally deep upper troughing edges NE with low pressure building at surface. Initial occluded front pushes NE from early Sunday morning bringing heavy rain to many areas. It is expected that a surface trough will develop within an unstable environment in the wake of the initial front bringing further scattered showers some of which could become thundery in nature. Upper shear looks minimal and moisture somewhat limited to the SE. Though the circulation within the low is stacked vertically and is open at mid levels increasing PVA lift. Convergence at surface with a layer of dry air at mid levels may create a marginal environment for CZ tornado development. Similar outlooks have seen CAPEs rapidly diminish as a large cold pool spreads out at surface and upper cloud remains overhead within the confines of the lows circulation. So all in all some risk here but the said restrictions may win the day! Based on the current model output the best scope for storms looks to be around Somerset during the afternoon where the best moisture pools and upper dry air combine. Prob worth an update in the morning!

Have a safe trip home Steve & Martin. Glad your vacation went well! I leave on Monday for mine but the current outlook pretty much closes down any severe weather for probably all of my two weeks. Anyway atleast I'll get a beer & sun tan by the pool this year. Maybe meet up at Pete's house for a BBQ later in the summer