Severe Blizzard

Yes. Yet again the infuriating eastward push as that atlantic dross scuppers our chances of anything decent for another few weeks, pushes any potential away from central / S.E. England yet again. Absolutely pathetic way to end weeks of sunshine, heat and humidity. Even arid and drought-affected 1976 had more storms than 2018. I loathe this current synoptic situation as much as the winter equivalent of a cold snap ending with the atlantic pushing fronts east and all we get in southern England is a forecast of snow which always results in a marginal let-down and drizzle while the north have the snow. One bad thing (impotent and useless 'breakdown') leads to another (an atlantic dominated scene with completely uninteresting conditions - anything but the much craved storms and decent sunshine and temperatures). If there is ever a 'good' breakdown with a decent storm in Guildford then the post break-down conditions will probably stay pleasant and won't be atlantic-dominated - signs of a true good summer.

21.3 deg.C on 20th July 2016 at Guildford, Surrey.

The only GOOD thing about winter 2017 / 2018 is when it is OVER. Truly horrid season, worse than 1972/1973, 1983/1984, 1992/1993 and 2005/2006. Another week of cold zonal dross next week, and no snow on Friday. Even Cornwall gets more snow than Guildford.

Sorry to be OT but could not resist this little joke. Just noticed the "Site Annoyances and Bugs" section. I am afraid I have a complaint - the weather maps keep showing this anomalous thing called an area of high pressure which always seems to sit over the Azores and has been particularly prevalent in the last three years, coinciding with the three worst years of rubbish weather I have ever experienced in my life and while living in Guildford. There must be a connection. If this 'bug' could be removed, then perhaps we could go back to the pre-2015 proper weather where thunderstorms are not deflected eastwards all the time in the summer, missing the Guildford area, and perhaps there could be something other than zonal dross and missing out on the snow in winter. BTW, winter 2017 / 2018 is the most frustrating, disappointing and unpleasant winter it has been my misfortune to experience. Even 1983 /1984 had more to offer than this crap-fest winter of weeks of coldish zonal misery, chilly damp dross and just enough rain to be a nuisance and stop outdoor activities (cycling) but not provide interest. Missing out on other hobbies like cycling would not be so bad if there was a decent quantity of snow and not just cold rain which subsequently freezes to sheet ice when the sky clears after the latest let-down, when southern areas miss the snow yet again, as in December. 'Disruption' (railways) would be better tolerated if it was due to an INTERESTING event like snow WHERE I LIVE and not yet more wind and trees down on the line (caused by other area's snow as in December). Definitely not looking forward to this coming week. More wind, more rain in small amounts, more missing out on snow, more cancelled bike rides just when I have time off work to actually get out for a change. More frustration, more disappointment, more discomfort and more missing out on other hobbies that should be there to temper the meteorological inadequacies. Can't wait for this pathetic attempt a winter to end and good riddance come the spring. Last measurable snow depth in Guildford was 1 cm on 12th January 2017. Last depth >5 cm lasting more than one day was in January 2013 (coming up for 5 years). Last time hail was observed in Guildford was on 26th April 2017. 9 months could be the longest gap between a hail event ever recorded. Last time thunder was heard in Guildford was on 22nd August 2017. Only 10 days of thunder heard in 2017, none of these were prolonged or noteworthy storms. Last decent thunderstorm was on 15th/16th September 2016 which I missed while away on holiday in Cornwall where there was just wind and drizzle. Last time there was decent sunny & dry weather on holiday in Cornwall was in September 2015. Sorry to rant, but the centre of our problems down south is the 'Azores High' and its general morphology and behaviour. I think this Is this down to water salinity affecting the oceanic temperature distribution and positioning of high pressure bands governing the position of the jet stream and movement of depressions. In turn the movement of these depressions result in synoptic situations that never favour the S.E. for 'interesting' events. Heard one disturbing report that this pattern could be present for many years which would result in 'perpetual westerlies'. Furthermore, this westerly problem seems to accentuate the cloudiness and uncomfortable high humidity, without thunderstorms that are suffered every summer these days. Think I want to emigrate if this 'perpetual westerly' misery is a possibility as I certainly cannot put up with another vile winter like this one.

First distant rumbles at Guildford at 8:34 pm and 8:40 pm. Unstable looking base to AltoStratus layer.

I really hope this latest model does NOT verify. Having missed out on all the Eastward shifting storms and Kent clippers this year, there was initially a good prognosis for storms in Guildford on Tuesday 18th / Wednesday 19th at long last. 15 distant rumbles of thunder on the whole of 2017 so far is pathetic. I do not want to see yet another downgrade for this area. Even some activity is better getting than absolutely nothing which usually happens.

More like another kent clipper or another eastward shunted storm so Guildford misses out yet again. Dreadful season to date and looks like 2017 is worse than 2015, and that is really saying something.

I really hope that this next plume can deliver in central SE England (Guildford). Thoroughly fed up missing out by a few miles each time and getting nothing. Judging by the remarks, I am not alone in thinking it has been a dreadful start to the storm season. So near and yet so far when it comes to no events in the Guildford area. I too am sick of windy cool dross which is always a result of the S.w.lys that cause this infuriating Eastward shunting of storms ensuring Guildford area misses out each time. Let's hope Wednesday 14th / Thursday 15th provides the long awaited goods at last.

Will Guildford actually ever get a T.storm this year? Rotten start to the summer. Let-down after let-down. (1) Saturday 27th May. Got within 5 miles before completely dying down then reinvigorating over East London and Kent. Completely missed out. (2) Sunday 28th / Monday 29th May. Some rumbles but missed the supercell and spectacular storms further S.E. Kent get another thunderstorm event. (3) Friday 2nd June. Completely missed out. Storms fired up 10 miles to the east. (4) Thursday 8th / Friday 9th June. Another cold front destabilises with storms firing up just in time to affect Kent yet again with that infernal and infuriating eastward shift / shunt (storms never seem to develop to the S.W. and shift east to cover storm-starved central S.E. England). Another kick in the teeth after all that annoying wind and vile atlantic muck suffered earlier this week and even more annoying that tonight's let-down storms were NOT even forecast previously unlike the other events that were SUPPOSED to affect local areas but resulted in let-downs. Of course the next 10 days are modelled to be dry with absolutely no thunderstorm potential here and typical that this will no doubt be set in stone. Typical how there are no surprise storms in Guildford these days, can't even remember an occasion when there was such an event. Looks like June is going to be yet another extremely boring month here while 'weather jealousy' dominates and the usual areas have all the excitement that I crave so badly and have been starved of so much. Looks like another 2015 style year of infuriating near-misses. Not impressed.

We had similar pathetic jokes for winters in 1991/1992 and especially 2005/2006. 1991/1992 was dominated by anticyclones near to or over the U.K. with reasonable levels of sunshine and heavy frosts in mid-December. 2005/2006 was IMO the most vile winter of the decade in the south with similar issues of this winter and especially in February. There was a considerable potential with very cold weather in Europe which never got sufficiently west to benefit the U.K. Epic failures featured regularly. Indeed, more snow fell in the following 'very mild' winter which was mostly Atlantic dominated except for a brief period in late January & early February. 2006 went on to yield a long tedious unpleasant cold cloudy and snowless spell in March - a real kick in the teeth after the horrid February. Hope that is not going to happen this time as a nice dry and sunny March would be preferred over this current stuff.

Forecast for Guildford for the next 10 days. Absolute cr*p - Everyone talking about widespread snow by the end of the week. Going to be sick of seeing news reports of the north being obliterated by snow while south misses out yet again, not to mention the uninformed public prattling on about how cold it is when it 7 deg.C. with a chilly wind then that equally annoying remark that it is too cold to snow. Maps for the next week just look like the usual dose of zonal dross which we suffer every winter. What a let down. I have seen better in November. More annoying still is that some friends of mine have gone to N. Scotland this week - typical. I go on holiday to Cornwall and miss big thunderstorms at home every two years without fail yet never get anything at my holiday destination. My friends holiday get excitement on holiday and don't have the misery of missing much awaited events going on at home while away then have to return to sitting through months of boring dross. Still thoroughly hacked off about September 15th/16th last year and, typically, no interesting weather in Guildford since. Storm starved, snow starved - Guildford has the most boring climate in the whole U.K. (never used to - just over the last 10 years). If it can't snow - hoping winter 2016/17 was going to be exceptionally dry so at least I can continue to pursue my outdoor activity interests (cycling in the countryside) and try to forget about the frustration of the last few months. Can't even enjoy the outdoor activities now as the zonal dross has returned - more vile drizzle filth today. Now wet roads which will freeze with the awesome mind blowing cold (not) 0 / -1 deg.C. 'killer cold' that the media are waffling on about so riding is now ruined by the risk of slipping on the ice (had accident on 20th Dec. 2013 after rain previous day froze on local road when temperature was 1.2 deg.C. and considerable swelling pain and £200 damage to bike and clothes with a very painful Christmas to follow - so I try to avoid riding in icy conditions). I am not bothered about being grounded due to a decent snowfall but drizzle, wind, wet roads, ice is a thorough nuisance. I was actually doing quite well this winter until this 2014/15 style garbage returns. Wish we could have the Euroslug back if it doesn't snow here in the south or we get snowmageddon - but not this vile glorified zonal dross. Rant over.

I am pleased to have something to report for once. Went up onto the Hogs Back, just south of Guildford and watched the IOW cell moving N.E. Although the main activity was to the S.E. (work colleague reported very heavy rain at Loxwood, West Sussex), get a couple of reasonable photos including the dual discharges at 10:21 pm. The first lightning was at 9:59 pm and first thunder was at 10:07 pm when approaching the Hogs Back. Much lightning to south and S.E. in next 20 minutes. Closer discharge at 10:30 pm with quite loud thunder (about a mile away). Spots of rain at 10:25 pm then moderate to heavy shower at 10:30 pm to 10:45 pm. Lightning receding to N.E. with last distant thunder heard at 10;55 pm. There was clear sky to the north with red-hued contrails, altocumulus and 'chaotic sky' during this whole event. On arriving home from the bike ride, about 2 mm rain had fallen. Further thunder at 11:58 pm then 12:05 am, 12:11 am and 12:32 am. Periods of moderate rain after 11:45 pm with some very heavy rain just arrived around 12:37 am. Total stands at about 10 mm (12:45 am)

Let's hope West Surrey & East Hampshire get a chance this time - this set up has brought nothing but disappointment last year and this year - The 'bust' repetition is getting very tiresome. Not much fun when the home-grown storms fail as well as over the last 12 days or so. Suffering Storm Deprivation Syndrome real bad now and will not be happy if Thursday is another let-down to add to the 32 others this year to date in Guildford.

A TRULY DREADFUL WEEK. Guildford missed by all the interesting thundery weather - yet again. One annoying situation after another. Getting thoroughly bored with completing my 'thunder bust' Excel spreadsheet on a daily basis. A horrid June in 2015 - A horrid June in 2016 - when will it change? If Guildford area had a bad history of missing out on storms then I would expect to have the garbage suffered in the last two summers (and years) but records show this area can be visited by some pretty impressive events even in awful years like the last two. It would not be so bad if it was like the olden days with 5 or 6 days thunder heard in a month with probably one or two good storms even if other locations are getting more than us. Having to see others get 7~8 days thunder or more in a month (more than our entire YEARLY total in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015) while I witness virtually nothing is infuriating and becoming more than tiresome and extremely boring. I know what I will be writing on my Climatological Observers Link and Weather Observers Network returns this month! Sick to death of the cloying humid muck that only feeds other peoples storms and watching the lightning map lighting up like a Christmas tree every evening then reading peoples gloating remarks about their successes in the appropriate threads. It wouldn't be so bad if there was a consolation 'prize'. A few years back (Summer 1996 comes to mind) when a certain situation failed and local areas missed out then there would often be a nice surprise with unexpected thundery activity in the 'unsettled' cooler showery weather which arrived after the failure of the plume or heatwave breakdown. Not anymore. Boring drizzle is predicted and that is what we get. A high chance of thunder is forecast and we still get drizzle. Days like today, Sunday 12th, are the worst - cloying humidity to work in, everyone being stressy and irritable and taking it out on staff like me - yes, we all have frustrations, me included, yet I don't bite off a member of staffs head because I am having a month like June 2016 inflicted on me. I want to hear thunder - not be assaulted by thumping 'music' noise issuing from car windows rolled down and the stink of bbq and fag fumes drifting everywhere. It is very annoying that 3 days running certain areas have had surprise storms - this never happens here anymore - what we get forecast when it is a likely 'bust' is what we get. I know all to well what will happen later in this record breaking convective year (yer right) - the rest of June will go cooler (at least getting rid of that humid filth) with no activity anywhere then the rest of the year will be 'quiet' with virtually everywhere except a certain area to the southwest of London saying it was a good year while it lasted and where I have to be the one comes out empty handed yet again. Some individuals have had multiple storms already this year and are STILL NOT SATISFIED and want more. Spare a thought for the poor b*gg*r living in Guildford who has not enjoyed any decent thunderstorm activity for almost two years now plus had to suffer two snow-less winters too. Guildford has become the worst part of the UK to live if one wants any action in the weather more than drizzle, wind, humidity or cloud. Sorry for this IMBY post - it has been a stressful week and I am really ready to let rip. SDS - storm deprivation syndrome is not pleasant. Well and truly in the no storms club - wish I could find some more posters in here. Is the lack of posters due to everyone getting such a good year for storms? Sorry I am not light-hearted about this but my love of severe weather is my life and the crap suffered in the last 20 months or so kicks me where it really hurts. I have done a blog on Net Weather summarising what a disgrace this year has been - started in April in anticipation of another horrid year but hoping otherwise. My wishes for GOOD things never seem to come true and materialise. Wish I could meet someone with who I could storm chase in USA as I am seriously thinking about this possibility next year.

A major disappointment. Now up to Bust No.24. No.21: Sunday 5th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers. One large cell near Wellington, Somerset. No.22: Monday 6th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers for local area. Widespread and intense activity over west again, Ireland and Irish sea. No.23: Tuesday 7th June: MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT AND LET-DOWN. The last two entries were mildly annoying - today's bust has been the most infuriating event for many years. This could have been the chance to get a major thunderstorm in Guildford. Usual story - storms over the South Coast, Brighton as usual, more develop inland, to the East of Guildford again, typically just too far away to hear the thunder before they are shunted away east. Newsworthy weather for London, again, like the annoyances on 9th June 1992 and 3rd August 2002, to name two, when Guildford misses out by a small margin yet again. This eastward shunting of storms developing just to the east of my locality is sickeningly annoying as this is what made up the entire summer last year. 2016 is another dreadful year for storms and the deprivation and frustration of seeing others gloating IMBY posts is infuriating. NO storms club is no good as that is just inane light hearted banter and does not cater for the seriously deprived and frustrated amateur observer who is stuck in his / her home town due to work commitments and being unable to drive to chase. Also very annoying to have the zonal garbage back at the weekend resulting in more rain in useless and annoying small quantities which will no doubt coincide with outdoor activities like cycling - something to work off the anger after days like Tuesday 7th and Wednesday 8th June. After having to wait for 6 hr from the onset of the London storms - there was SLIGHT thunder at 7:32 pm to 7:48 pm (8 quiet rumbles) resulting in a cycle storm chase to a quieter area away from the incessant traffic. This storm just died off as it moved S.E.wards. One more quiet rumble at 11:54 pm from cell to north. NO RAIN FELL LOCALLY during this time but colleague cycling home from work got caught in downpour to east of Guildford at 11;30 pm and he estimated 6~8 mm rain fell. There was also a good storm just west of Fleet, Hants where I originally lived. No.24: Wednesday 8th June: Usual story, usual areas get the storms. London, west midlands and Birmingham. Hopeful build up of Cu and Cb to N.E. after 3 pm. This leads to irritating drizzle shower and no thunder. Only thunder today was 4 quiet rumbles at 12:37 am to 12:50 am probably to the north. Possibly a more useful way to measure thunder would be in estimated discharges through the months / year rather than days on which thunder was heard - last year had 6 days all with quiet thunder and <10 discharges on each. So far, the 2016 count is 3 days but this includes a total of 14 quiet rumbles and no close discharges. The average number of thunder days in Guildford (1992~2011) was 16 days. Not at all happy about zonal dross returning and probably have to wait well into July before another stab at any decent weather. Funny (not) how no surprise thunder events ever develop in situations conducive to such development, or have had a past good history but failing to deliver nowadays, yet other locations seem to do OK. What has Guildford done to deserve all this brain-numbing boring dross all the time? The lack of activity is hardly in compensation for an active period as we suffered the awful years in 2009 (6 days), 2010 (4 days) and 2011 (5 days), which had few but better storms than anything in 2015 and 2016 so far. 2012 (12 days) and 2013 (12 days) also lacked any decent events locally and the thunder in those years was 'single clap wonders' or 'cloud farts'. Only 2014 has been a decent year (20 days) and even then Guildford only really saw 3-4 impressive events, the others being 'slight', GOne are the dasy when thunder was recorded on 5 or 6 days in a month, often 2 or 3 months consecutively such as in the summers of 1982 and 1983. Now those were truly great vintage years, the latter with a good summer too, and also after decetn winters with snow. Feeling VERY DISGRUNTLED at present - how I wish I could just up and leave and go to America and get away form the stuffy UK with its extremely boring weather, ridiculous cost of living and all the infuriating unfair political issues (now don't get me started on the 'I' word - just suffice to say, if we import all that 'stuff' from France, why can't we get French import thunderstorms surviving the channel and making landfall at Southampton - where Guildford has a chance before the ever-present eastward shunt).

Move to Guildford, Surrey - you can guarantee it will stay thunder-less in any situation or set up in this location. Wish I WAS in London at present.

July 1968 was a good month for thunderstorms in the south, the best events being the 10th~11th and 13th~14th with rainfalls >25 mm on each of these occasions (Fleet, Hants). S.E. did not fare well on the 1st with the very hot day and thunderstorms over the west country moving N.E. and missed out on the large hail associated with these storms. Summer 1968 saw much N.E.ly and E.ly type weather in the south and culminated in the thunderstorms and torrential rain from an almost stationary front on 14th~16th September. Guildford had 105 mm over these 3 days with major flooding.

May has yielded NO thunder (or even any distant lightning) in Guildford. There have been 20 'busts' in 2016 now - a truly horrendous figure. Getting thoroughly bored writing about missing out on thunderstorms while seeing the usual areas enjoying another 'good' convective and thundery year. Can't believe that the sum total of two 'good' convective months, April and May, can only deal out two rumbles locally (26th April) and one of those two months is completely thunder-free, again. After this so-called thundery and convectionally active spring, there will be a compensatory quiet boring summer - so Guildford area has to suffer yet more boredom having missed out on the only chances early in the season. I have never seen such protracted dreadful lacking conditions and after such an awful year last year as well. At the end of the season, I will publish my Excel spreadsheet showing the true extent and detail of this let-down year.

Frontal system crossing UK was supposed to bring heavy rainfall and was NOT supposed to be thundery. S.E. gets massive downgrade with barely any rain while there was an unpleasant gusty wind instead. Meanwhile, parts of the Midlands including Bolton, Lancashire saw big upgrade with outbreak of thunderstorms along the cold front - this was a surprise and not forecast. Cannot remember when there was last such a surprise here in Guildford, possibly 28th July 2014! Firmly get the impression that nothing really interesting ever happens in this part of southern England these days - the North seem to have all the excitement and decent weather with high pressure areas bringing sunshine and pleasant temperatures while the south gets the gloom, wind and crummy temperatures as during March's anticyclonic period. North seem to get all the thunderstorms irrespective of the time of year, snow in decent quantities, forecasts of interesting events which verify, few downgrades, surprise extra interesting events, more sunshine and more interesting temperature variation. Us, in the south get the complete opposite. The period from October 2014 to present is the worst 18 months for missing out on interesting events and suffering cack and dross I have ever had my misfortune to suffer, centring on that pathetic excuse for a year 2015 and its horrendous joke of a winter followed by even nastier summer and that truly vile November of incessant wind and drizzle. Forecast for the next few days was for a continued chance (usually about 30~35%) of thunder and interesting showery conditions. Now it has been downgraded to barely any rainfall, very little thunder chance and more wind. What is the chance that this downgrade forecast is the one that will verify? Additionally, I go on holiday to Cornwall soon - what's the betting that it will be back to zonal dross and crap drizzle filth just for the week I am there, while in the S.E. there is a heatwave and plume for one day which brings the thunder event of a lifetime and I bl***y miss it, like the 14th June 2014 miraculous 4 hour thunderstorm in an anticyclonic northerly. This had been forecast 5 days previously and looked very unlikely to verify - when it did, it was considerably more severe than the forecast event.

Thunder heard at 4:31 pm from cell to N.E. giving heavy soft hail shower over Ripley at this time. Further rumble at 4:37 pm. First thunder heard for exactly 8 months, previous being 26th August 2015. Good to finally have our first event of the year, although it was not from an overhead source. There had been moderate soft hail showers at 3:43 pm and another at 7:30 pm (Guildford).

More thundery showers in the south midlands, including Cambridgeshire areas and parts of East Anglia. Thundery showers were supposed to also affect areas to the south such as Surrey. Also annoying that thunder risk over all the next few days has been downgraded for Guildford area - no doubt this will verify as nothing thundery or snow-related ever upgrades for this location. Meanwhile, another hard-earned day off (Friday 15th) to be ruined by the usual drizzle and light rain dross with another gutless depression over southern England that will be electrically inactive with no surprises thrown in - well not here or at Fleet where I will be visiting.

Convergence line develops over area just to the south of Guildford with hopeful darkening of sky to S.S.W. at 1700. Light shower of large droplets at 1718~1730. Cu develop overhead and to north after 1730 and evident heavy shower to north and N.E. to at least 1900. Rainfall radar showed sferics only 4 miles from home. No thunder actually heard. Also, quite good thunderstorm evident over Canterbury earlier in afternoon and the usual traditional areas that 'do well' (Peterborough and parts of East Anglia) enjoy another thunder event during evening. I am well aware that favoured spots in the UK will get more thunder than my local area but it's constantly getting nothing while certain areas are favoured over and over again that has made the last 18 months some of the most uninteresting and predictably boring weather I have ever had my misfortune to suffer.

Bust No.5; Thursday 7th April: Morning drizzle finally gave way to decent convection after 1500. There was an impressive heavy shower at 1635~1650 giving ice pellets at 1640 and slightly larger 4~5 mm hail at 1642~1647. An impressive shower and so close to getting that elusive thunder - expecting a flash and bang during the most intense part of the rain and hail mix. Some sferics observed to the north and east including the Twickenham area and, earlier to the N.W. over Reading and Berkshire. Bust No.6; Tuesday 12th April: Thundery shower risk was quite high according to forecast. Unexpected thunder activity in Cholsey and Pangbourne area at 1245~1315 according to reports. Just typical that I was passing through this area by train exactly 24 hours earlier. Sunny periods and dry throughout at Guildford. Guildford still waits for its first thunder of the year where 26th August 2015's pathetic distant muffled rumble was the last occasion thunder was heard here. Makes me wonder if there will be any thunder event this year when decent situations cannot deliver and it will no doubt be back to more zonality soon ushering in another dreadful summer.

Expecting another rubbish year - please refer to my 2016 THUNDER BUST & LET DOWN blog for details of all the inevitable let-downs, busts and frustrating days that lie ahead over the next 5~6 months. Sorry, can't see how to do a link to the appropriate page. I expect this blog to become very long. lol.

Just to see snow falling for a few hours would be nice and certainly better than getting NOTHING as at present. Obviously a covering and more prolonged snowfall would be appreciated even more.