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Severe Blizzard

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About Severe Blizzard

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    The Fall Guy

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  • Location
    Guildford, Surrey.
  • Interests
    Music of most genres, electronic organs and synthesisers.
    Cyling the countryside.
    Old hi fi equipment.
    Classic cars.
    General nostalgia.
    Severe weather and weather history.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms & Snow

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  1. Now into June and not a single rumble or clap of thunder nor any distant lightning in 2019 yet. Previous latest first thunder event of the year was 24th May (1992). Only 8 days on which thunder occurred last year (Guildford average is 16 days) and two of those were in November. Seriously wonder if we'll have to wait until July and the 2nd half of the year for the first 2019 event? Week ahead: more unsettled atlantic dross with any potential shunted away east before it has a chance to develop. Absolutely dire. Real kick in the teeth when remembering the fantastic night 20 years ago (1st/2nd June 1999) and what has to be put up with these days.
  2. Yes. Yet again the infuriating eastward push as that atlantic dross scuppers our chances of anything decent for another few weeks, pushes any potential away from central / S.E. England yet again. Absolutely pathetic way to end weeks of sunshine, heat and humidity. Even arid and drought-affected 1976 had more storms than 2018. I loathe this current synoptic situation as much as the winter equivalent of a cold snap ending with the atlantic pushing fronts east and all we get in southern England is a forecast of snow which always results in a marginal let-down and drizzle while the north have the snow. One bad thing (impotent and useless 'breakdown') leads to another (an atlantic dominated scene with completely uninteresting conditions - anything but the much craved storms and decent sunshine and temperatures). If there is ever a 'good' breakdown with a decent storm in Guildford then the post break-down conditions will probably stay pleasant and won't be atlantic-dominated - signs of a true good summer.
  3. 21.3 deg.C on 20th July 2016 at Guildford, Surrey.
  4. The only GOOD thing about winter 2017 / 2018 is when it is OVER. Truly horrid season, worse than 1972/1973, 1983/1984, 1992/1993 and 2005/2006. Another week of cold zonal dross next week, and no snow on Friday. Even Cornwall gets more snow than Guildford.
  5. Sorry to be OT but could not resist this little joke. Just noticed the "Site Annoyances and Bugs" section. I am afraid I have a complaint - the weather maps keep showing this anomalous thing called an area of high pressure which always seems to sit over the Azores and has been particularly prevalent in the last three years, coinciding with the three worst years of rubbish weather I have ever experienced in my life and while living in Guildford. There must be a connection. If this 'bug' could be removed, then perhaps we could go back to the pre-2015 proper weather where thunderstorms are not deflected eastwards all the time in the summer, missing the Guildford area, and perhaps there could be something other than zonal dross and missing out on the snow in winter. BTW, winter 2017 / 2018 is the most frustrating, disappointing and unpleasant winter it has been my misfortune to experience. Even 1983 /1984 had more to offer than this crap-fest winter of weeks of coldish zonal misery, chilly damp dross and just enough rain to be a nuisance and stop outdoor activities (cycling) but not provide interest. Missing out on other hobbies like cycling would not be so bad if there was a decent quantity of snow and not just cold rain which subsequently freezes to sheet ice when the sky clears after the latest let-down, when southern areas miss the snow yet again, as in December. 'Disruption' (railways) would be better tolerated if it was due to an INTERESTING event like snow WHERE I LIVE and not yet more wind and trees down on the line (caused by other area's snow as in December). Definitely not looking forward to this coming week. More wind, more rain in small amounts, more missing out on snow, more cancelled bike rides just when I have time off work to actually get out for a change. More frustration, more disappointment, more discomfort and more missing out on other hobbies that should be there to temper the meteorological inadequacies. Can't wait for this pathetic attempt a winter to end and good riddance come the spring. Last measurable snow depth in Guildford was 1 cm on 12th January 2017. Last depth >5 cm lasting more than one day was in January 2013 (coming up for 5 years). Last time hail was observed in Guildford was on 26th April 2017. 9 months could be the longest gap between a hail event ever recorded. Last time thunder was heard in Guildford was on 22nd August 2017. Only 10 days of thunder heard in 2017, none of these were prolonged or noteworthy storms. Last decent thunderstorm was on 15th/16th September 2016 which I missed while away on holiday in Cornwall where there was just wind and drizzle. Last time there was decent sunny & dry weather on holiday in Cornwall was in September 2015. Sorry to rant, but the centre of our problems down south is the 'Azores High' and its general morphology and behaviour. I think this Is this down to water salinity affecting the oceanic temperature distribution and positioning of high pressure bands governing the position of the jet stream and movement of depressions. In turn the movement of these depressions result in synoptic situations that never favour the S.E. for 'interesting' events. Heard one disturbing report that this pattern could be present for many years which would result in 'perpetual westerlies'. Furthermore, this westerly problem seems to accentuate the cloudiness and uncomfortable high humidity, without thunderstorms that are suffered every summer these days. Think I want to emigrate if this 'perpetual westerly' misery is a possibility as I certainly cannot put up with another vile winter like this one.
  6. First distant rumbles at Guildford at 8:34 pm and 8:40 pm. Unstable looking base to AltoStratus layer.
  7. I really hope this latest model does NOT verify. Having missed out on all the Eastward shifting storms and Kent clippers this year, there was initially a good prognosis for storms in Guildford on Tuesday 18th / Wednesday 19th at long last. 15 distant rumbles of thunder on the whole of 2017 so far is pathetic. I do not want to see yet another downgrade for this area. Even some activity is better getting than absolutely nothing which usually happens.
  8. More like another kent clipper or another eastward shunted storm so Guildford misses out yet again. Dreadful season to date and looks like 2017 is worse than 2015, and that is really saying something.
  9. I really hope that this next plume can deliver in central SE England (Guildford). Thoroughly fed up missing out by a few miles each time and getting nothing. Judging by the remarks, I am not alone in thinking it has been a dreadful start to the storm season. So near and yet so far when it comes to no events in the Guildford area. I too am sick of windy cool dross which is always a result of the S.w.lys that cause this infuriating Eastward shunting of storms ensuring Guildford area misses out each time. Let's hope Wednesday 14th / Thursday 15th provides the long awaited goods at last.
  10. Will Guildford actually ever get a T.storm this year? Rotten start to the summer. Let-down after let-down. (1) Saturday 27th May. Got within 5 miles before completely dying down then reinvigorating over East London and Kent. Completely missed out. (2) Sunday 28th / Monday 29th May. Some rumbles but missed the supercell and spectacular storms further S.E. Kent get another thunderstorm event. (3) Friday 2nd June. Completely missed out. Storms fired up 10 miles to the east. (4) Thursday 8th / Friday 9th June. Another cold front destabilises with storms firing up just in time to affect Kent yet again with that infernal and infuriating eastward shift / shunt (storms never seem to develop to the S.W. and shift east to cover storm-starved central S.E. England). Another kick in the teeth after all that annoying wind and vile atlantic muck suffered earlier this week and even more annoying that tonight's let-down storms were NOT even forecast previously unlike the other events that were SUPPOSED to affect local areas but resulted in let-downs. Of course the next 10 days are modelled to be dry with absolutely no thunderstorm potential here and typical that this will no doubt be set in stone. Typical how there are no surprise storms in Guildford these days, can't even remember an occasion when there was such an event. Looks like June is going to be yet another extremely boring month here while 'weather jealousy' dominates and the usual areas have all the excitement that I crave so badly and have been starved of so much. Looks like another 2015 style year of infuriating near-misses. Not impressed.
  11. We had similar pathetic jokes for winters in 1991/1992 and especially 2005/2006. 1991/1992 was dominated by anticyclones near to or over the U.K. with reasonable levels of sunshine and heavy frosts in mid-December. 2005/2006 was IMO the most vile winter of the decade in the south with similar issues of this winter and especially in February. There was a considerable potential with very cold weather in Europe which never got sufficiently west to benefit the U.K. Epic failures featured regularly. Indeed, more snow fell in the following 'very mild' winter which was mostly Atlantic dominated except for a brief period in late January & early February. 2006 went on to yield a long tedious unpleasant cold cloudy and snowless spell in March - a real kick in the teeth after the horrid February. Hope that is not going to happen this time as a nice dry and sunny March would be preferred over this current stuff.
  12. Forecast for Guildford for the next 10 days. Absolute cr*p - Everyone talking about widespread snow by the end of the week. Going to be sick of seeing news reports of the north being obliterated by snow while south misses out yet again, not to mention the uninformed public prattling on about how cold it is when it 7 deg.C. with a chilly wind then that equally annoying remark that it is too cold to snow. Maps for the next week just look like the usual dose of zonal dross which we suffer every winter. What a let down. I have seen better in November. More annoying still is that some friends of mine have gone to N. Scotland this week - typical. I go on holiday to Cornwall and miss big thunderstorms at home every two years without fail yet never get anything at my holiday destination. My friends holiday get excitement on holiday and don't have the misery of missing much awaited events going on at home while away then have to return to sitting through months of boring dross. Still thoroughly hacked off about September 15th/16th last year and, typically, no interesting weather in Guildford since. Storm starved, snow starved - Guildford has the most boring climate in the whole U.K. (never used to - just over the last 10 years). If it can't snow - hoping winter 2016/17 was going to be exceptionally dry so at least I can continue to pursue my outdoor activity interests (cycling in the countryside) and try to forget about the frustration of the last few months. Can't even enjoy the outdoor activities now as the zonal dross has returned - more vile drizzle filth today. Now wet roads which will freeze with the awesome mind blowing cold (not) 0 / -1 deg.C. 'killer cold' that the media are waffling on about so riding is now ruined by the risk of slipping on the ice (had accident on 20th Dec. 2013 after rain previous day froze on local road when temperature was 1.2 deg.C. and considerable swelling pain and £200 damage to bike and clothes with a very painful Christmas to follow - so I try to avoid riding in icy conditions). I am not bothered about being grounded due to a decent snowfall but drizzle, wind, wet roads, ice is a thorough nuisance. I was actually doing quite well this winter until this 2014/15 style garbage returns. Wish we could have the Euroslug back if it doesn't snow here in the south or we get snowmageddon - but not this vile glorified zonal dross. Rant over.
  13. I am pleased to have something to report for once. Went up onto the Hogs Back, just south of Guildford and watched the IOW cell moving N.E. Although the main activity was to the S.E. (work colleague reported very heavy rain at Loxwood, West Sussex), get a couple of reasonable photos including the dual discharges at 10:21 pm. The first lightning was at 9:59 pm and first thunder was at 10:07 pm when approaching the Hogs Back. Much lightning to south and S.E. in next 20 minutes. Closer discharge at 10:30 pm with quite loud thunder (about a mile away). Spots of rain at 10:25 pm then moderate to heavy shower at 10:30 pm to 10:45 pm. Lightning receding to N.E. with last distant thunder heard at 10;55 pm. There was clear sky to the north with red-hued contrails, altocumulus and 'chaotic sky' during this whole event. On arriving home from the bike ride, about 2 mm rain had fallen. Further thunder at 11:58 pm then 12:05 am, 12:11 am and 12:32 am. Periods of moderate rain after 11:45 pm with some very heavy rain just arrived around 12:37 am. Total stands at about 10 mm (12:45 am)
  14. Let's hope West Surrey & East Hampshire get a chance this time - this set up has brought nothing but disappointment last year and this year - The 'bust' repetition is getting very tiresome. Not much fun when the home-grown storms fail as well as over the last 12 days or so. Suffering Storm Deprivation Syndrome real bad now and will not be happy if Thursday is another let-down to add to the 32 others this year to date in Guildford.
  15. A TRULY DREADFUL WEEK. Guildford missed by all the interesting thundery weather - yet again. One annoying situation after another. Getting thoroughly bored with completing my 'thunder bust' Excel spreadsheet on a daily basis. A horrid June in 2015 - A horrid June in 2016 - when will it change? If Guildford area had a bad history of missing out on storms then I would expect to have the garbage suffered in the last two summers (and years) but records show this area can be visited by some pretty impressive events even in awful years like the last two. It would not be so bad if it was like the olden days with 5 or 6 days thunder heard in a month with probably one or two good storms even if other locations are getting more than us. Having to see others get 7~8 days thunder or more in a month (more than our entire YEARLY total in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015) while I witness virtually nothing is infuriating and becoming more than tiresome and extremely boring. I know what I will be writing on my Climatological Observers Link and Weather Observers Network returns this month! Sick to death of the cloying humid muck that only feeds other peoples storms and watching the lightning map lighting up like a Christmas tree every evening then reading peoples gloating remarks about their successes in the appropriate threads. It wouldn't be so bad if there was a consolation 'prize'. A few years back (Summer 1996 comes to mind) when a certain situation failed and local areas missed out then there would often be a nice surprise with unexpected thundery activity in the 'unsettled' cooler showery weather which arrived after the failure of the plume or heatwave breakdown. Not anymore. Boring drizzle is predicted and that is what we get. A high chance of thunder is forecast and we still get drizzle. Days like today, Sunday 12th, are the worst - cloying humidity to work in, everyone being stressy and irritable and taking it out on staff like me - yes, we all have frustrations, me included, yet I don't bite off a member of staffs head because I am having a month like June 2016 inflicted on me. I want to hear thunder - not be assaulted by thumping 'music' noise issuing from car windows rolled down and the stink of bbq and fag fumes drifting everywhere. It is very annoying that 3 days running certain areas have had surprise storms - this never happens here anymore - what we get forecast when it is a likely 'bust' is what we get. I know all to well what will happen later in this record breaking convective year (yer right) - the rest of June will go cooler (at least getting rid of that humid filth) with no activity anywhere then the rest of the year will be 'quiet' with virtually everywhere except a certain area to the southwest of London saying it was a good year while it lasted and where I have to be the one comes out empty handed yet again. Some individuals have had multiple storms already this year and are STILL NOT SATISFIED and want more. Spare a thought for the poor b*gg*r living in Guildford who has not enjoyed any decent thunderstorm activity for almost two years now plus had to suffer two snow-less winters too. Guildford has become the worst part of the UK to live if one wants any action in the weather more than drizzle, wind, humidity or cloud. Sorry for this IMBY post - it has been a stressful week and I am really ready to let rip. SDS - storm deprivation syndrome is not pleasant. Well and truly in the no storms club - wish I could find some more posters in here. Is the lack of posters due to everyone getting such a good year for storms? Sorry I am not light-hearted about this but my love of severe weather is my life and the crap suffered in the last 20 months or so kicks me where it really hurts. I have done a blog on Net Weather summarising what a disgrace this year has been - started in April in anticipation of another horrid year but hoping otherwise. My wishes for GOOD things never seem to come true and materialise. Wish I could meet someone with who I could storm chase in USA as I am seriously thinking about this possibility next year.
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