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Severe Blizzard

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About Severe Blizzard

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    The Fall Guy

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  • Location
    Guildford, Surrey.
  • Interests
    Music of most genres, electronic organs and synthesisers.
    Cyling the countryside.
    Old hi fi equipment.
    Classic cars.
    General nostalgia.
    Severe weather and weather history.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms & Snow

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  1. The best part of this 'extended autumn' and incessant drizzle rain in nuisance / meteorologically uninteresting amounts is when it all ends... ? Fed up with missed bike rides or having to ride getting blown around and soaked (plus undue wear on bike parts - more bottom bracket failures this season than other vile winters like 2014/15 and 2017/18), working in the pseudo-cold wet nasty conditions, aching from the damp and now on my 4th cold in 4 months. Good riddance to this vile winter if it can't yield any 'interesting' events here in Guildford. Nice if we could actually get some of the winter thunderstorms / hail everyone else seems to be having nearby instead of just wind and drizzle rain all the time. Hope March will be warm and drier, don't want a 'cold' March which will probably be even more of the current dross at lower temperatures and the misery going into its sixth month - and still no snow.
  2. There were heavy showers with lightning and thunder to the west of Guildford, moving N.E. to the north of the town on Thursday 19th. Lightning to west at 1721 and north at 1800. No thunder was heard but the storm was reported to be over Alton, Fleet and Bracknell. Single clap of thunder heard on Saturday 21st at 0951 as large Cb moved to the N.W. of Guildford. Surface winds were S.E. but cloud movement, even at lower altitudes (1000 m) was from the S.W. Good wind shear which assisted the formation of the tornado at Chertsey. Lightning discharge was not seen on lightning detector app. The thundery activity this month also included a single strike near Bracknell on Saturday 14th in evening during the torrential rain and hail that affected Romsey. There were more widespread thunderstorms in the Basingstoke and Farnborough areas moving over towards Heathrow Airport late on Sunday 15th. There was some hail at Guildford at 1714 from an isolated shower and 2254~2258 from the main activity which was much heavier further west and north.
  3. Why I am not feeling enthusiastic about the coming winter. Where do I start? (1) Winter's which are preceded by endless wet, dismal and depressing weather through the autumn (2019). Bad enough having to suffer cold, wet, disappointing snow-less dross through the winter months without extending it back into the autumn, although it hasn't been too cold yet. (2) I am a keen cyclist and dislike endless days of rain, especially if in small and frequent amounts such as every day like at present. Sick to death already of having to juggle ride times to avoid rain, cold and wind or grin-and-bear-it and have an unenjoyable ride in the vile weather followed by wasting endless hours sorting out wet clothes and repairing the bike parts which wear quicker in the dampness and wet, possibly being without bike for a while if more extensive repairs are needed at the shop. I love cycling and being outdoors and not stuck indoors with day-in day-out vile weather. Timing of the rare 'decent' day coinciding with days in the week when I can't ride (work) followed by days off being wet, too cold or windy for a decent ride or having to cancel. (3) Winters dominated by marginal snow setups which deliver everywhere else while Guildford misses out again and gets cold rain. (4) I work in retail and Christmas is sometimes a nightmare and adds to the misery of a miserable season. (5) Colds, coughs and flu which last longer in winter and having to slog away at work with a hacking cough, especially near Christmas in the cold, damp and unpleasant conditions. (6) Transport chaos, especially at Christmas when I have no choice but to have to visit relatives (father suffering with dementia) and have to cycle in bad weather. Yet another Christmas period of chaos and disruption due to the usual engineering works and another strike (name and shame: RMT and southwestern railway). Dreading Christmas already for this reason and if the weather is anything but mild and dry with light winds then the entire period is going to be a real nightmare with having to cycle 17 miles each way with a heavy rucksack. (7) Long periods of darkness and little sun. (8) As I get older, I am beginning to dislike low temperatures all the more but still appreciate 'inversion cold' or proper severe cold with snow which can be very exciting. I just loathe the false / pseudo-cold with high wind chill in damp and dull conditions. (9) Getting to October / November and knowing >20 deg.C won't be reached again for 5-6 months. Sad seeing the summer / early autumn fade away. (10) People ramping and getting excited about a synoptic situation that will not bring snow or an interesting event to the area where I live, especially if this fever-pitch excitement is in November before the winter has even started. If December is really going to be like 1981 or 2010 with proper snow and impressive severe cold, then there really is something to be excited about and interested in, although the ensuing travel chaos is not welcome. (11) Media hyping that it will be the coldest winter since 1963, like it was last year, the year before and the year before that etc. (12) Features of specific winter weather which I dislike: (a) Ice and icy roads after marginal snow event failures and then the wet surfaces freeze when skies clear after the fronts move away (2017/2018). (b) Missing out on the all to rare interesting events such as snow and winter thunderstorms / hail (winters 2014/2015 and 2017/2018 before late February). (c) Rain in small or mediocre amounts on a daily basis (2014/2015 winter - a truly vile one). (d) Easterly situations that just produce disappointing cold, damp and drizzly weather although the synoptics suggest something more interesting (2005/2006). (e) The Azores High causing cold zonality and the set-ups unfavourable for snow in the south but still have to suffer unsettled weather without anything of interest. If it's going to be cold - we want snow and proper low temperatures or it can stay mild. (f) Drizzle - hate the stuff. (g) Long periods of strong winds in a westerly or W.N.W.ly warm sector rather than a milder S.W.ly warm sector (another feature of the much-disliked cold zonality set-up). (h) Cold weather extending into March after mediocre conditions in February and the cold is not of the snow-bearing type (1996, 2001, 2006, 2013 - a disappointing month in the Guildford area but good elsewhere). I used to dislike the Bartlett high situation and dry winters like 1991/1992, mainly due to the absence of snow and 'boring' weather. These winter scenarios are appreciated much more these days as I have enjoyed a few snowy winters (2008/2009 through to 2012/2013) and the yearning for snow has lessened a bit. However, I don't enjoy missing out on the snow if there is a chance of a favourable situation. I'd take dry (mild or sunny cold) any day over cold and wet as I can get out on the bike much more in the favourable conditions. The late February warm and sunny spell of 2019 was truly beautiful. It was a pity that this was superseded by a windy, drizzly and unpleasant period through March and not by a memorable snow event as in 1891 when a similar February 'heatwave' gave way to a major snow event in the south between 9th~13th March!
  4. I remember the passage of this depression over southern England on Tuesday 21st September 1982. Having reached 26 deg.C 3 days earlier in a period of lovely anticyclonic warm autumn weather, this was quite a shock to the system. Like this autumn, the ex-Debby depression was the beginning of a long wet autumn, starting around 20th/21st September, with plenty of interesting weather including several large rainfall totals (eg. 2nd October, 27 mm; 22nd October, 30 mm or so), violent / dramatic cold fronts and a memorable gale on Friday 12th November associated with a very active cold front. 1982 was a more boisterous and wetter autumn than 2019 but the pattern is similar. Stormy weather continued in December with a gale on the 9th uprooting a tree resulting in a train getting de-railed near Fleet, Hants. I remember that following the passage of the ex-Debby depression on the 21st, where there had been strong and gusty winds in the morning, 9 mm rain including another active cold front around 11 am, the afternoon was quieter with a light northerly wind and sunny periods. The low was quite shallow, 1000 mb, when passing over the south steered by a larger low over or near to Scotland. A cold night followed with a minimum temperature of 2 deg.C. on Wednesday 22nd.
  5. The let-down in Guildford on Tuesday 27th August (2019) was remarkably similar to that of Saturday 27th August 2016 with the storms kicking off just to the north of London and affecting Lincolnshire and other parts of the N.E. (as usual). So close yet so far - again. Just to say, we had the best thunder event in Guildford on Thursday 15th / Friday 16th September 2016 just under 3 weeks from the previous let-down; typically when I was in Cornwall on holiday, so I missed the entire event - still annoyed about it to today as we still have had nothing of the magnitude of the storm I missed (*) to compensate yet. If date history repeats itself on the 15th / 16th September (Sunday / Monday) this year then I will be home from Cornwall with a day to spare - so I do not expect to miss the next big event! Typical post-storm let-down fatigue and general lack of enthusiasm today after days of sweltering heat, working hard in it dealing with loutish lazy and ungrateful members of public at work with the highest temperatures perfectly timed for the busiest shifts over the bank holiday weekend. This is followed by all-out-exhaustion, disappointment and feeling Hack-Sawed off with today's rise in humidity making physical activity even more unbearable after the weekend. Not happy to see a crummy N.W. / S.E. based set up with cold dross in the next week - no chance of storms then and probabably an annoying return to rain and wind dross in time for the holiday after the first week of September. Lovely. NOT. (*) I was told about the storm on arriving home which was similar to another very annoying missed event on Saturday 14th June 2014. Also conversed with work colleague on FaceBook as storm was kicking off at home while I was in caravan in Cornwall with gusty cold northerly wind buffeting the caravan.
  6. Now into June and not a single rumble or clap of thunder nor any distant lightning in 2019 yet. Previous latest first thunder event of the year was 24th May (1992). Only 8 days on which thunder occurred last year (Guildford average is 16 days) and two of those were in November. Seriously wonder if we'll have to wait until July and the 2nd half of the year for the first 2019 event? Week ahead: more unsettled atlantic dross with any potential shunted away east before it has a chance to develop. Absolutely dire. Real kick in the teeth when remembering the fantastic night 20 years ago (1st/2nd June 1999) and what has to be put up with these days.
  7. Yes. Yet again the infuriating eastward push as that atlantic dross scuppers our chances of anything decent for another few weeks, pushes any potential away from central / S.E. England yet again. Absolutely pathetic way to end weeks of sunshine, heat and humidity. Even arid and drought-affected 1976 had more storms than 2018. I loathe this current synoptic situation as much as the winter equivalent of a cold snap ending with the atlantic pushing fronts east and all we get in southern England is a forecast of snow which always results in a marginal let-down and drizzle while the north have the snow. One bad thing (impotent and useless 'breakdown') leads to another (an atlantic dominated scene with completely uninteresting conditions - anything but the much craved storms and decent sunshine and temperatures). If there is ever a 'good' breakdown with a decent storm in Guildford then the post break-down conditions will probably stay pleasant and won't be atlantic-dominated - signs of a true good summer.
  8. 21.3 deg.C on 20th July 2016 at Guildford, Surrey.
  9. The only GOOD thing about winter 2017 / 2018 is when it is OVER. Truly horrid season, worse than 1972/1973, 1983/1984, 1992/1993 and 2005/2006. Another week of cold zonal dross next week, and no snow on Friday. Even Cornwall gets more snow than Guildford.
  10. Sorry to be OT but could not resist this little joke. Just noticed the "Site Annoyances and Bugs" section. I am afraid I have a complaint - the weather maps keep showing this anomalous thing called an area of high pressure which always seems to sit over the Azores and has been particularly prevalent in the last three years, coinciding with the three worst years of rubbish weather I have ever experienced in my life and while living in Guildford. There must be a connection. If this 'bug' could be removed, then perhaps we could go back to the pre-2015 proper weather where thunderstorms are not deflected eastwards all the time in the summer, missing the Guildford area, and perhaps there could be something other than zonal dross and missing out on the snow in winter. BTW, winter 2017 / 2018 is the most frustrating, disappointing and unpleasant winter it has been my misfortune to experience. Even 1983 /1984 had more to offer than this crap-fest winter of weeks of coldish zonal misery, chilly damp dross and just enough rain to be a nuisance and stop outdoor activities (cycling) but not provide interest. Missing out on other hobbies like cycling would not be so bad if there was a decent quantity of snow and not just cold rain which subsequently freezes to sheet ice when the sky clears after the latest let-down, when southern areas miss the snow yet again, as in December. 'Disruption' (railways) would be better tolerated if it was due to an INTERESTING event like snow WHERE I LIVE and not yet more wind and trees down on the line (caused by other area's snow as in December). Definitely not looking forward to this coming week. More wind, more rain in small amounts, more missing out on snow, more cancelled bike rides just when I have time off work to actually get out for a change. More frustration, more disappointment, more discomfort and more missing out on other hobbies that should be there to temper the meteorological inadequacies. Can't wait for this pathetic attempt a winter to end and good riddance come the spring. Last measurable snow depth in Guildford was 1 cm on 12th January 2017. Last depth >5 cm lasting more than one day was in January 2013 (coming up for 5 years). Last time hail was observed in Guildford was on 26th April 2017. 9 months could be the longest gap between a hail event ever recorded. Last time thunder was heard in Guildford was on 22nd August 2017. Only 10 days of thunder heard in 2017, none of these were prolonged or noteworthy storms. Last decent thunderstorm was on 15th/16th September 2016 which I missed while away on holiday in Cornwall where there was just wind and drizzle. Last time there was decent sunny & dry weather on holiday in Cornwall was in September 2015. Sorry to rant, but the centre of our problems down south is the 'Azores High' and its general morphology and behaviour. I think this Is this down to water salinity affecting the oceanic temperature distribution and positioning of high pressure bands governing the position of the jet stream and movement of depressions. In turn the movement of these depressions result in synoptic situations that never favour the S.E. for 'interesting' events. Heard one disturbing report that this pattern could be present for many years which would result in 'perpetual westerlies'. Furthermore, this westerly problem seems to accentuate the cloudiness and uncomfortable high humidity, without thunderstorms that are suffered every summer these days. Think I want to emigrate if this 'perpetual westerly' misery is a possibility as I certainly cannot put up with another vile winter like this one.
  11. First distant rumbles at Guildford at 8:34 pm and 8:40 pm. Unstable looking base to AltoStratus layer.
  12. I really hope this latest model does NOT verify. Having missed out on all the Eastward shifting storms and Kent clippers this year, there was initially a good prognosis for storms in Guildford on Tuesday 18th / Wednesday 19th at long last. 15 distant rumbles of thunder on the whole of 2017 so far is pathetic. I do not want to see yet another downgrade for this area. Even some activity is better getting than absolutely nothing which usually happens.
  13. More like another kent clipper or another eastward shunted storm so Guildford misses out yet again. Dreadful season to date and looks like 2017 is worse than 2015, and that is really saying something.
  14. I really hope that this next plume can deliver in central SE England (Guildford). Thoroughly fed up missing out by a few miles each time and getting nothing. Judging by the remarks, I am not alone in thinking it has been a dreadful start to the storm season. So near and yet so far when it comes to no events in the Guildford area. I too am sick of windy cool dross which is always a result of the S.w.lys that cause this infuriating Eastward shunting of storms ensuring Guildford area misses out each time. Let's hope Wednesday 14th / Thursday 15th provides the long awaited goods at last.
  15. Will Guildford actually ever get a T.storm this year? Rotten start to the summer. Let-down after let-down. (1) Saturday 27th May. Got within 5 miles before completely dying down then reinvigorating over East London and Kent. Completely missed out. (2) Sunday 28th / Monday 29th May. Some rumbles but missed the supercell and spectacular storms further S.E. Kent get another thunderstorm event. (3) Friday 2nd June. Completely missed out. Storms fired up 10 miles to the east. (4) Thursday 8th / Friday 9th June. Another cold front destabilises with storms firing up just in time to affect Kent yet again with that infernal and infuriating eastward shift / shunt (storms never seem to develop to the S.W. and shift east to cover storm-starved central S.E. England). Another kick in the teeth after all that annoying wind and vile atlantic muck suffered earlier this week and even more annoying that tonight's let-down storms were NOT even forecast previously unlike the other events that were SUPPOSED to affect local areas but resulted in let-downs. Of course the next 10 days are modelled to be dry with absolutely no thunderstorm potential here and typical that this will no doubt be set in stone. Typical how there are no surprise storms in Guildford these days, can't even remember an occasion when there was such an event. Looks like June is going to be yet another extremely boring month here while 'weather jealousy' dominates and the usual areas have all the excitement that I crave so badly and have been starved of so much. Looks like another 2015 style year of infuriating near-misses. Not impressed.
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