Severe Blizzard

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About Severe Blizzard

  • Rank
    The Fall Guy
  • Birthday 01/11/68

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  • Location
    Guildford, Surrey.
  • Interests
    Music of most genres, electronic organs and synthesisers.
    Cyling the countryside.
    Old hi fi equipment.
    Classic cars.
    General nostalgia.
    Severe weather and weather history.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms & Snow

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  1. I am pleased to have something to report for once. Went up onto the Hogs Back, just south of Guildford and watched the IOW cell moving N.E. Although the main activity was to the S.E. (work colleague reported very heavy rain at Loxwood, West Sussex), get a couple of reasonable photos including the dual discharges at 10:21 pm. The first lightning was at 9:59 pm and first thunder was at 10:07 pm when approaching the Hogs Back. Much lightning to south and S.E. in next 20 minutes. Closer discharge at 10:30 pm with quite loud thunder (about a mile away). Spots of rain at 10:25 pm then moderate to heavy shower at 10:30 pm to 10:45 pm. Lightning receding to N.E. with last distant thunder heard at 10;55 pm. There was clear sky to the north with red-hued contrails, altocumulus and 'chaotic sky' during this whole event. On arriving home from the bike ride, about 2 mm rain had fallen. Further thunder at 11:58 pm then 12:05 am, 12:11 am and 12:32 am. Periods of moderate rain after 11:45 pm with some very heavy rain just arrived around 12:37 am. Total stands at about 10 mm (12:45 am)
  2. Let's hope West Surrey & East Hampshire get a chance this time - this set up has brought nothing but disappointment last year and this year - The 'bust' repetition is getting very tiresome. Not much fun when the home-grown storms fail as well as over the last 12 days or so. Suffering Storm Deprivation Syndrome real bad now and will not be happy if Thursday is another let-down to add to the 32 others this year to date in Guildford.
  3. A TRULY DREADFUL WEEK. Guildford missed by all the interesting thundery weather - yet again. One annoying situation after another. Getting thoroughly bored with completing my 'thunder bust' Excel spreadsheet on a daily basis. A horrid June in 2015 - A horrid June in 2016 - when will it change? If Guildford area had a bad history of missing out on storms then I would expect to have the garbage suffered in the last two summers (and years) but records show this area can be visited by some pretty impressive events even in awful years like the last two. It would not be so bad if it was like the olden days with 5 or 6 days thunder heard in a month with probably one or two good storms even if other locations are getting more than us. Having to see others get 7~8 days thunder or more in a month (more than our entire YEARLY total in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015) while I witness virtually nothing is infuriating and becoming more than tiresome and extremely boring. I know what I will be writing on my Climatological Observers Link and Weather Observers Network returns this month! Sick to death of the cloying humid muck that only feeds other peoples storms and watching the lightning map lighting up like a Christmas tree every evening then reading peoples gloating remarks about their successes in the appropriate threads. It wouldn't be so bad if there was a consolation 'prize'. A few years back (Summer 1996 comes to mind) when a certain situation failed and local areas missed out then there would often be a nice surprise with unexpected thundery activity in the 'unsettled' cooler showery weather which arrived after the failure of the plume or heatwave breakdown. Not anymore. Boring drizzle is predicted and that is what we get. A high chance of thunder is forecast and we still get drizzle. Days like today, Sunday 12th, are the worst - cloying humidity to work in, everyone being stressy and irritable and taking it out on staff like me - yes, we all have frustrations, me included, yet I don't bite off a member of staffs head because I am having a month like June 2016 inflicted on me. I want to hear thunder - not be assaulted by thumping 'music' noise issuing from car windows rolled down and the stink of bbq and fag fumes drifting everywhere. It is very annoying that 3 days running certain areas have had surprise storms - this never happens here anymore - what we get forecast when it is a likely 'bust' is what we get. I know all to well what will happen later in this record breaking convective year (yer right) - the rest of June will go cooler (at least getting rid of that humid filth) with no activity anywhere then the rest of the year will be 'quiet' with virtually everywhere except a certain area to the southwest of London saying it was a good year while it lasted and where I have to be the one comes out empty handed yet again. Some individuals have had multiple storms already this year and are STILL NOT SATISFIED and want more. Spare a thought for the poor b*gg*r living in Guildford who has not enjoyed any decent thunderstorm activity for almost two years now plus had to suffer two snow-less winters too. Guildford has become the worst part of the UK to live if one wants any action in the weather more than drizzle, wind, humidity or cloud. Sorry for this IMBY post - it has been a stressful week and I am really ready to let rip. SDS - storm deprivation syndrome is not pleasant. Well and truly in the no storms club - wish I could find some more posters in here. Is the lack of posters due to everyone getting such a good year for storms? Sorry I am not light-hearted about this but my love of severe weather is my life and the crap suffered in the last 20 months or so kicks me where it really hurts. I have done a blog on Net Weather summarising what a disgrace this year has been - started in April in anticipation of another horrid year but hoping otherwise. My wishes for GOOD things never seem to come true and materialise. Wish I could meet someone with who I could storm chase in USA as I am seriously thinking about this possibility next year.
  4. Move to Guildford, Surrey - you can guarantee it will stay thunder-less in any situation or set up in this location. Wish I WAS in London at present.
  5. July 1968 was a good month for thunderstorms in the south, the best events being the 10th~11th and 13th~14th with rainfalls >25 mm on each of these occasions (Fleet, Hants). S.E. did not fare well on the 1st with the very hot day and thunderstorms over the west country moving N.E. and missed out on the large hail associated with these storms. Summer 1968 saw much and type weather in the south and culminated in the thunderstorms and torrential rain from an almost stationary front on 14th~16th September. Guildford had 105 mm over these 3 days with major flooding.
  6. Expecting another rubbish year - please refer to my 2016 THUNDER BUST & LET DOWN blog for details of all the inevitable let-downs, busts and frustrating days that lie ahead over the next 5~6 months. Sorry, can't see how to do a link to the appropriate page. I expect this blog to become very long. lol.
  7. Just to see snow falling for a few hours would be nice and certainly better than getting NOTHING as at present. Obviously a covering and more prolonged snowfall would be appreciated even more.
  8. Mention was made of winter 1963/64 earlier. Winter of 1963/64 was very dry and anticyclonic, therefore frequently foggy. There was snow in southern England around 12th January but little over the remainder of the winter. If I had been alive then, the mid-January event would haver been my 'fix' of the winter and the rest would not have been so 'tedious'. 1963/64 was the driest winter locally (69.1 mm) until 1975/76 (65.1 mm) and the notorious 1991/92 winter (53.7 mm). All three of these winters were anticyclonic and there were impressive frosts in Decembers of 1975 and 1991 and cold spells in Januaries of 1976 and 1992. There was slight snow in 1976 (late January) but 1992 was 'barren' and snowless.
  9. Good to see some more positive posts on here regarding the 'poor' start to the winter, with regards to the exceptional temperatures. I agree that the warmth is not the issue and it is the lack of sunshine and persistence of the drizzle that makes the conditions unpleasant. I remember December 1988 and the very mild weather on 23rd / Christmas Eve (>14 deg.C. maxima) in bright sunshine. This is the type of exceptional mild December weather that is pleasant and Wednesday 16th was much closer to this than the last few days, indeed, weeks. If a cold set-up cannot develop, days like this in the S.E. are welcome over hours of drizzly nuisance value rain and horrid gusty winds any day! However, deep snow as in December 1981 and 2010 would still be great. I have recorded all max. temps. >10 deg.C. so far this December and reached >14 deg.C on 4 days so far! The max. temp. on Wednesday at my Guildford site was 14.4 deg.C. Got to admit I am enjoying the exceptional mildness with DRY and bright conditions like on Wednesday 16th. Working outdoors in a supermarket car park, chose to wear shorts and still felt hot and glasses steamed up when going indoors! It was also amusing hearing Christmas music in the supermarket, working in what I was wearing on the warmest days in the summer. Most recent nights birdsong has continued all night - eerie. One must also not forget the spell of mild and dry weather 'enjoyed' in the week leading up to Christmas Eve last year, this also having 12~14 deg.C. maxima. The change to cold zonality after Boxing day when southern areas missed the Boxing Day snow, was most unwelcome. I am aware I have moaned on here often, but the lack of drizzle today was most welcome (not dry today in the true sense as the atmosphere was very humid as one would expect in this tropical maritime air-mass). I am not becoming a true 'Mildie', but I am making the best use of these unusual conditions to their best advantage benefiting from lower heating bills, comfortable working conditions and hope to get a good bike ride and enjoy the countryside in the 'dry' conditions on Friday! One historical fact was that autumn 1938 was very mild and December was exceptionally mild up to the 16th. In the south, the S.W. flow changed to easterly with heavy rain on 18th turning to snow and then snow showers everyday through to just after Christmas. 7 inches (19 cm) of snow lay at Redhill, Surrey on Christmas Day. A very mild period in early December 1995 ended with snow on the 5th with a similar change in situation as the high developed to the N.E. and fed in easterly winds in the south U.K. There is still hope for some 'proper winter' . I just hope it does NOT develop into another nasty cold zonal disappointment with the current set-up moving south with more rain, dull and colder conditions with snow everywhere but the south (1983/84, 1992/93, last winter etc). Prefer this mild dry snowless everywhere current set-up to wet horrible conditions and missing out on the snow or anything else interesting like last winter. Perhaps we will see a very anticyclonic January and February with frost, sunshine and some fog at times resulting in a overall dry winter (for the south) like 1991/92 and similarly, 1975/76. Anyway, looking forward to working in shorts again until at least Sunday 20th, an unprecedented record!
  10. Agree wholeheartedly. 2015 has been a truly AWFUL year!! No snow, no thunderstorms, very dull and rain in frequent nuisance small amounts. Annoying gusty wind making cycling difficult. Always wet on Tuesdays when I have my only opportunity to have a ride in the countryside. Lack of sunshine making me very stroppy and not helped by working in retail with fellow people suffering with this nightmare seven weeks of vile muck. Vile unfriendly atmosphere everywhere - reminiscent of my first uni year in 1988/1989. The mildness is useful and temperature stats could prove to be interesting this month - trying to find something positive! Cycling could be pleasurable if the drizzle could hold off and wind decrease if the high could move a little more north and push the warm sector muck further north.
  11. My sentiments exactly. I think 2015 has been a truly vile year in Guildford which culminated in a truly vile November, rain total being 48.1 mm (72%) over 20 rain days - so, a dry month with frequent rain. Guildford was also shrouded in fog all day on the 1st and 2nd where the rest of the UK had gorgeous sunshine and unprecedented warmth. Extremely boring weather in 2015 - never had so many bike rides ruined by drizzle and rain only to arrive home and find 0.5~2 mm has fallen - enough to get soaked but not enough to be interesting. This area missed the snow last January, missed all the thunderstorms through the summer with nearby areas having copious events and now all this incessant drizzle with frequent stupid small amounts of rain. Set-up is remarkably like last year - that bl**dy Azores high again - which will no doubt lead to another winter situation which I loathe - cold zonality with snow in the north (usually Reading northwards) so we miss out yet again. Prefer a blowtorch dry and mild like December 1988 / January 1989 to missing more interesting weather while accompanied by more vile dross and muck in the south, when the rest of the UK sees the usual variety with cold zonality ('weather jealousy'!) . I thought last winter was the nastiest since 2005/2006 and I am not ready for round two of nasty winters yet! I think it would take a divine miracle to get heights to rise to the north and N.E. to give the south a favourable E.N.E. flow to bring snow and some real excitement here. In the mean time one can wish for high pressure to cover the UK to result in a much needed proper dry spell, some much needed sunshine and perhaps some frosts,
  12. Certainly not happy about the GFS for the next 2 weeks. Although a snow and severe cold weather lover - being realistic, I don't expect a repeat of December 2010 in the next 4-5 weeks. However, I loathe drizzle, wind and zonal weather such as we have suffered this month with below average rainfall and annoying long periods of drizzle and light rain which always seem to coincide with the only time on the one day a week (Tuesday) when I get to have a chance to have a countryside bike ride. This was a major annoyance last winter and I am getting sick to my back teeth of this irritating zonal dross already where it seems the weather has just picked up where last winter left off. I already rate 2015 as the nastiest, most vile year ever experienced (with the exception of some reasonable weather during the two separate Cornwall holiday weeks). No snow, no thunderstorms as the Guildford area missed all the summer events, and just mediocre rain with high pressure close enough to the area to inhibit proper rain but not close enough to yield some decent dry and sunnier conditions.. I am so desperate for some decent ride weather, I'll probably be shot for saying this, but I am getting to the point of wishing for a rerun of 1988/1989 or even 1991/1992. I just want to see some decent dry weather and lose this incessant vile drizzle and zonal dross. A regime of being stormy with worthwhile rain like winter 2013/14 (proper rainfall, winter thunderstorms and INTERESTING conditions) or long dry periods with the Bartlett High close enough to inhibit all rain except for a short heavy shower on the occasional passing cold front is the preference if this zonal theme has to persist even more (winter 1988/1989). Alternatively, contrasting conditions with an anticyclonic theme with frosty and foggy weather such as winter 1991/1992 would be a welcome change from this extremely boring, repetitive and unpleasant zonal muck. Anticyclonic benign weather used to be classed as 'boring' and was dreaded in winter month's, if the Atlantic set-up can't produce anything better than below average monthly rainfall with endless boring mediocre conditions, then the latter can be defined as the new 'boring' and the benign weather is most welcome! Benign and quiet conditions can be 'filled' with activities such as cycling which will be enjoyed. The enjoyment of these activities are not possible with the dross suffered at present. However, if I have to be grounded and cannot ride (riding being the only pleasure I get at this time of year) then a rerun of the severe Decembers of 1981, 2010 or even 1938 would be welcome!
  13. Usual story here in Guildford. Looks like we'll make a third consecutive summer month of near misses in the most boring year ever experienced. Such a dry summer - what a waste when that Azores High could be a bit closer and the weather could be settled (like August 1976 /1990 / 2003) and the thunder-less / storm-less nature of the summer could be justified by some decent weather and not 'dry unsettled' conditions. 4 days of thunder heard in 2015 so far - all distant rumbles, none overhead. This time last year there had been 15 days by now and half of these thunder days were events that were noteworthy and not just 'one rumble wonders' or distant muffled thunder from repeated missed events. What a difference a year makes.
  14. Thanks for the invite to join you on the next chase. You referred to the 'May' storm last year. Your description of the movement of the system suggests this was the Friday 13th / Saturday 14th event which was the one I missed by 15 hours as it occurred when I was on holiday. Also, an encouraging remark that the next chase might only to be to Guildford! I work varying hours, so the chance of being available for a chase depends on timing. My days off are Tuesdays and Fridays and I start work after midday on Monday, Thursday and Saturday, and work daytimes on Wednesday and Sunday. Please obtain my Hotmail or Facebook contact information from the the Net Weather profile page. Please Email me so we could exchange mobile phone numbers / details and have better chance of organising a chase when the need arises. Cheers.
  15. Good remark. This rinse and repeat idea seems to be all well but it would be nice to see the track of the storms be slightly different each Thursday-Saturday 'attempt' so the areas that always miss them (Guildford) finally get a chance and that the areas that have repeatedly done well this summer, miss out for a change. The issue this year is that the storms form in one area, usually not too far from the Guildford area then move away in a straight line (or lines) developing further north to N.E. or E.N.E. depending on the upper wind direction. The area of storms is usually very narrow, so coverage is very limited unless sufficiently lucky to be in the firing line. Frontal storms developing at an angle to the prevailing direction of movement then moving in an arc will cover a much greater area, an example being 17th/18th July 2014 which was an impressive event even in Guildford. Frontal storm activity has been lacking this summer and despite all these thunder events - thunder has only been heard on 4 days this year, last night's show-down amounting to two distant muffled rumbles. However the lightning, about 30 flashes, is the best this year SO FAR (last two words emphasized as I really hope there will be more chances and that we are not descending into a horrible cool and wet August and September having had the warmth of the summer). Rain is expected as Guildford area is in drought, the last measurable rain being 1.2 mm on 28th June, 19 days ago, and last reasonable total, 6.5 mm on 22nd June. Pity this extremely dry summer is an 'unsettled' one and not a sunny one. Looks like 2015 is shaping up to be like 1921, an extremely dry year but have little info on whether the summer was good or incidence of thundery activity. Dry spells like this, Summer 2015 currently much drier than 1976!, often lead to a compensatory wet period. A hot thundery wet August like 1997 followed by dry sunny September like 1997 (holiday planned in first half) would be a perfect development on the current state. The resulting wet weather and potential for a decent storm to arrive before the holiday would make the next 6 weeks more enjoyable than the last 6, and I promise to contribute something better than moan posts on this site!