Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Severe Blizzard

Members
  • Posts

    180
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Guildford, Surrey.
  • Interests
    Music of most genres, electronic organs and synthesisers.
    Cyling the countryside.
    Photography.
    Old hi fi equipment.
    Classic cars.
    General nostalgia.
    Severe weather and weather history.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms & Snow

Contact Methods

Recent Profile Visitors

8,959 profile views

Severe Blizzard's Achievements

Explorer

Explorer (4/14)

  • First Post
  • Collaborator
  • Posting Machine
  • Conversation Starter
  • Reacting Well

Recent Badges

94

Reputation

  1. I don't call it an epic year for storms with only 13 claps of thunder over four 'weak' storms, and 33 opportunities to date (2021) which have all been failures / busts in Guildford. Yet another crap year more like. Don't mean to offend anyone but this year is seriously getting on my t**s after the almost equally rubbish performance last year and after a very disappointing winter. It wouldn't be so bad if EVERYBODY was missing out on the interesting conditions and not just C.S. England and Guildford. Sooner I can have that storm chasing trip, the better. Next week's 'breakdown' - surprise, surprise - completely downgraded and now just a drop in temperature as we have to get more weather from a N.W.ly direction yet again - the most unexciting direction with least potential for thundery conditions here. Wish the Azores 'high' would go and get low pressure there instead and we would then get some decent warmth, drier and pleasanter atmosphere with less humidity except during plumes originating from Spain, not France, then it would be game-on for storms and not more 'Kent Clippers'. home grown storms only affecting the usual areas like London, midlands and the N.E. as far as Edinburgh. wish this pattern stuck on 'repeat' would just go - 6 years out of last 13 yielding <6 days thunder per year is atrocious. Time for a change and some different locations having the excitement. Thunder days in Guildford since 2001. The mean (1998 to 2007) is 16 .3 days. The demise is very clear. Before anyone asks, I have not gone deaf and I work outdoors, so if anything happens I do notice - Monday's 4th 'event' of 2021 was a muffled rumble to the N.E. and one would need a 3,000 watt P.A. rig to amplify the thunder to a level which more people would notice! 2001 - 19 2002 - 13 2003 - 11 2004 - 14 2005 - 14 2006 - 23 2007 - 13 2008 - 15 2009 - 6 2010 - 4 2011 - 5 2012 -12 2013 -12 2014 - 20 2015 - 6 2016 - 12 2017 -10 2018 - 8 2019 - 8 2020 - 5 2021 - 4 (to 14th July).
  2. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2020 were pretty diabolical for missing out on storms at Guildford. This year is as just as atrocious and certainly not pleased about today's failures. Too bad we now have another horrid humid N.W. warm sector flow before anticyclonic weather dominates for a duration of anyone's guess. Last good thundery summer was 2014 and last decent storm was in 2016, typically when I was on holiday and missed it, hence feeling even more storm-staved in this dreadful current period.
  3. Borefest summer continues. Still no thunder in Guildford despite the forecast and potential over the weekend. Guarantee that we will get the wind on Tuesday from the latest humdinger depression that will dominate through the week with yet more vile and tediously boring weather in central southern England that passes for a typical 'modern' summer.
  4. Here in Guildford, Surrey we swelter through plumes that deliver nothing but 'Kent clippers' and then we get the other potential hopeful situations for thundery weather which also don't deliver - time and time again. Still waiting to hear thunder in this uninteresting and disappointing month, summer, year & decade.
  5. I feel sorry for those that didn't see snow today and can feel your pain. I am pleased to say that Guildford is out of the 'no snow' club this winter, so hopefully I won't be coming here to rant and rave for a while now! What was shaping up to be the 'worst' winter for let-downs and disappointments has now been relegated to a much lower position and I can think of several worse winters such as 1983/84, 2005/06, 2014/15, 2001/02, 1992/93, 2017/18 (December to February only, excluding the extended winter involving March with the two good BFTE set-ups). I hope those who are still snow-less have their lucky break soon - there is always February - remember 2006/07, the mildest winter on record, but managed brief but decent cold and two snow events (funnily enough, 24th January, then 8th February), better than the 'cold' but unproductive disappointing winter of 2005/06. There is always hope. However, don't expect rerun of 1962/63 or 1978/79 although February 1986's prolonged cold and snow was surely not predicted at this stage in January and there could be surprises.
  6. All this talk of global warming - always surfaces when we get rubbish winters like 2020/2021 - strange how marginal snow events always verify favourably for M4 northwards and anywhere south generally misses out. This has been a perennial nuisance since I started studying weather from 1982 onward and is nothing new - it has only got worse. Equally strange that global warming should theoretically result in more thunderstorm activity and reality we get less in the Guildford area. Indeed, so-called global warming seems to govern the expected weather types (warmer, wetter, more storms and more interesting extremes) everywhere else in the U.K. except the S.E. which is getting more mediocre, uninteresting and predictable boring weather including missing out. Surely a phenomena like global warming should have a similar impact everywhere - ie. fewer thunderstorms, less snow, less extremes etc over the whole of the UK or conversely the whole of the UK including snow-starved and storm-starved Guildford should be seeing the extremes too. Winter 1983/1984 and some others were as bad as this year for missing out on the snow in Guildford / Fleet areas and there was less 'global warming' in those days, and in the early 1970's which were also poor for snow and thunder (1972 was an especially rubbish year in the S.E. and reading the data, 1950/1951 was also a very disappointing marginal winter and much wetter than this year). Still think the rubbish winters, especially in regard to not getting snow / summers without thunderstorms / decent convective weather in Guildford is down to sheer bad luck and bad timing and it is about time that this changed.
  7. Still waiting for the first snow of winter in Guildford. Lowest temperature only -2.7 deg.C so far after only -2.5 deg.C. last winter. For a non-zonal type winter, this is utter cr*p and outdoes that awful 2005/2006 winter which was full of easterly promise and never delivered. Even January 1984 with its north biased snow brought some dregs down here, unlike this pathetic excuse for a 'winter'. Waste of time. Virtually no thunder last year and now yet another winter from Hell. If we can't get the snow here then at least a boring mild dry set up would be welcome so I can enjoy some cycling and not be reminded of the snow fest winter up north after all the thunderstorms the north enjoyed last year.
  8. Guildford, Surrey. no storms in the summer. No snow in the winter. Usually Atlantic dominated. Rare deviation to favourable synoptics for storms or snow always ends in disappointment and end up empty-handed. Utter cr*p and suitable finale to this despicable year.
  9. Looks like this is already happening. No sub-zero days (maxima) since March 2018. No decent snow event since March 2018 and no decent snow event in winter since 2012/2013. Far fewer thunderstorms each year - only managed 5 days this year and two of those were distant and the other three were weak. Climate just seems to becoming more constant with little variety and almost complete lack of 'interesting' events while periods of Atlantic dross just seem to be getting longer and longer. Current cold spell is a joke. At Guildford there was no snow, as usual, and I have yet to record the first air-frost of the season. Tonight is another example of missing the frost by a small margin as temperature has dropped to a steady 1 deg.C. since 6 pm and will probably drop very little rest of night.
  10. Seventh consecutive day of thundery outbreaks warnings. This only verified on two days, last week, with moderate thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Guildford missed the heaviest rain and I only measured a paltry 0.3 mm on Wednesday 12th while nearby Wisley had 20 mm, and 6.6 mm on Thursday 13th while Alice Holt Forest area not too distant had 19 mm. Thunder was never too close or too loud and indeed, most of the 'discharges' did not even show up on the lightning detector. Despite 9 rumbles in 4 minutes on Wednesday 12th, only 3 strikes showed for a 10 minute period. No forked lightning was observed on either days. Although it was good to finally have some thunder after such an atrocious year to date, the novelty has soon worn off with the annoyance of unexpected severe storms just to the north of the area on Thursday evening followed by two days of dull, damp and miserable 'post-thunderstorm hangover' weather on Friday and Saturday. The persistent drizzle on Saturday was an additional nuisance. Despite warnings still in position there was absolutely no convective activity on these days with the usual resignation that there will be no storms again. The forecast for Saturday looked hopeful with the suggestion of 41 mm between 10 pm Saturday and 1 am Sunday forecast on one occasion. We got 0.6 mm falling as drizzle on Saturday morning and another 0.2 mm in the late morning. The surprise of seeing S.E. London have a 57 mm deluge on Saturday evening was not a pleasant one. Today, Sunday, has been just as frustrating with another hopeful area of rain moving north to yield about 0.5 mm and no thunder and only to explode over the north yet again! I am beginning to think 2020 is shaping up to be the most boring and frustrating year for weather and is now even worse than 2015. When the rain does arrive, it can be guaranteed to be small amounts over long periods. Even Atlantic depressions are a joke and waste of time with a day of drizzly rain, typically coinciding with planned outdoor activities which are ruined or have to be postponed or cancelled. Forecasts of 'nuisance' rain seem regarding timing seem to be set in stone days in advance especially if it is destined to coincide with a planned outdoor event , yet a thunderstorm outbreak or if this rain was a thundery setup or an interesting high total, failure can be guaranteed. Tomorrow is the last chance to have any thundery outbreaks before the Atlantic dross returns with more days of wind and silly nuisance bits of rain despite the synoptic map for Thursday suggesting what would once have been considered a decent situation for heavy and even thundery rain in the S.E. / central southern areas. I don't hold out much hope for tomorrow and sure it will be another letdown with the usual northern areas experiencing the lion's share of the storms while Guildford and nearby areas miss out completely yet again. I am also getting concerned as I go on holiday in September and long periods of dry weather often get get compensated. The local area must be the driest part of the UK at present especially after July's Atlantic dross just brought rubbish rainfall and I feel the wet weather compensation is due shortly. Firstly, I wish the washout could come now and not when I am in Cornwall as I don't enjoy trudging around the coast paths in blinding drizzle, wind and freezing temperatures. Secondly, I am fearful of missing the long awaited thunderstorm event at Guildford when away in Cornwall. Missing interesting events happening at home while on holiday has ruined many holidays in the past, especially with the knowledge that no one will bother taking notes about what I missed while I still have to write it up in my end of month report. The inevitable tedious long wait for a repeat and having to suffer months more of the kind of disappointments experienced in recent years adds to the annoyance, especially if the holiday weather is lacklustre and disappointing as well. After missing severe storms on 14th June 2014 and 15th/16th September 2016, the latter not really been repeated since, I really do not want to add 2020 to my list of over 40 major weather events missed while on holiday in the last 35 years or so. I really do not understand how I can be resident in Guildford on 348 days of the year (356 days this year) when it is an endless procession of let-downs, busts and seeing other areas get all the storms yet I still miss the big event which develops on the 17 days (10 days this year) that I am absent from Guildford. I feel I have suffered far more than my fair share of this bad luck now, especially as I have never experienced a severe outbreak in Cornwall. I have written a report detailing the reduced incidence of thunder in the last 12 years based on data for 53 years and the evidence is very clear. This will be uploaded when the disappointment continues through this next week. This post will also be available on the 'No Storms' thread.
  11. Seventh consecutive day of thundery outbreaks warnings. This only verified on two days, last week, with moderate thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Guildford missed the heaviest rain and I only measured a paltry 0.3 mm on Wednesday 12th while nearby Wisley had 20 mm, and 6.6 mm on Thursday 13th while Alice Holt Forest area not too distant had 19 mm. Thunder was never too close or too loud and indeed, most of the 'discharges' did not even show up on the lightning detector. Despite 9 rumbles in 4 minutes on Wednesday 12th, only 3 strikes showed for a 10 minute period. No forked lightning was observed on either days. Although it was good to finally have some thunder after such an atrocious year to date, the novelty has soon worn off with the annoyance of unexpected severe storms just to the north of the area on Thursday evening followed by two days of dull, damp and miserable 'post-thunderstorm hangover' weather on Friday and Saturday. The persistent drizzle on Saturday was an additional nuisance. Despite warnings still in position there was absolutely no convective activity on these days with the usual resignation that there will be no storms again. The forecast for Saturday looked hopeful with the suggestion of 41 mm between 10 pm Saturday and 1 am Sunday forecast on one occasion. We got 0.6 mm falling as drizzle on Saturday morning and another 0.2 mm in the late morning. The surprise of seeing S.E. London have a 57 mm deluge on Saturday evening was not a pleasant one. Today, Sunday, has been just as frustrating with another hopeful area of rain moving north to yield about 0.5 mm and no thunder and only to explode over the north yet again! I am beginning to think 2020 is shaping up to be the most boring and frustrating year for weather and is now even worse than 2015. When the rain does arrive, it can be guaranteed to be small amounts over long periods. Even Atlantic depressions are a joke and waste of time with a day of drizzly rain, typically coinciding with planned outdoor activities which are ruined or have to be postponed or cancelled. Forecasts of 'nuisance' rain seem regarding timing seem to be set in stone days in advance especially if it is destined to coincide with a planned outdoor event , yet a thunderstorm outbreak or if this rain was a thundery setup or an interesting high total, failure can be guaranteed. Tomorrow is the last chance to have any thundery outbreaks before the Atlantic dross returns with more days of wind and silly nuisance bits of rain despite the synoptic map for Thursday suggesting what would once have been considered a decent situation for heavy and even thundery rain in the S.E. / central southern areas. I don't hold out much hope for tomorrow and sure it will be another letdown with the usual northern areas experiencing the lion's share of the storms while Guildford and nearby areas miss out completely yet again. I am also getting concerned as I go on holiday in September and long periods of dry weather often get get compensated. The local area must be the driest part of the UK at present especially after July's Atlantic dross just brought rubbish rainfall and I feel the wet weather compensation is due shortly. Firstly, I wish the washout could come now and not when I am in Cornwall as I don't enjoy trudging around the coast paths in blinding drizzle, wind and freezing temperatures. Secondly, I am fearful of missing the long awaited thunderstorm event at Guildford when away in Cornwall. Missing interesting events happening at home while on holiday has ruined many holidays in the past, especially with the knowledge that no one will bother taking notes about what I missed while I still have to write it up in my end of month report. The inevitable tedious long wait for a repeat and having to suffer months more of the kind of disappointments experienced in recent years adds to the annoyance, especially if the holiday weather is lacklustre and disappointing as well. After missing severe storms on 14th June 2014 and 15th/16th September 2016, the latter not really been repeated since, I really do not want to add 2020 to my list of over 40 major weather events missed while on holiday in the last 35 years or so. I really do not understand how I can be resident in Guildford on 348 days of the year (356 days this year) when it is an endless procession of let-downs, busts and seeing other areas get all the storms yet I still miss the big event which develops on the 17 days (10 days this year) that I am absent from Guildford. I feel I have suffered far more than my fair share of this bad luck now, especially as I have never experienced a severe outbreak in Cornwall. I have written a report detailing the reduced incidence of thunder in the last 12 years based on data for 53 years and the evidence is very clear. This will be uploaded when the disappointment continues through this next week. This post will also be available on the 'No Storms' thread.
  12. The best part of this 'extended autumn' and incessant drizzle rain in nuisance / meteorologically uninteresting amounts is when it all ends... ? Fed up with missed bike rides or having to ride getting blown around and soaked (plus undue wear on bike parts - more bottom bracket failures this season than other vile winters like 2014/15 and 2017/18), working in the pseudo-cold wet nasty conditions, aching from the damp and now on my 4th cold in 4 months. Good riddance to this vile winter if it can't yield any 'interesting' events here in Guildford. Nice if we could actually get some of the winter thunderstorms / hail everyone else seems to be having nearby instead of just wind and drizzle rain all the time. Hope March will be warm and drier, don't want a 'cold' March which will probably be even more of the current dross at lower temperatures and the misery going into its sixth month - and still no snow.
  13. There were heavy showers with lightning and thunder to the west of Guildford, moving N.E. to the north of the town on Thursday 19th. Lightning to west at 1721 and north at 1800. No thunder was heard but the storm was reported to be over Alton, Fleet and Bracknell. Single clap of thunder heard on Saturday 21st at 0951 as large Cb moved to the N.W. of Guildford. Surface winds were S.E. but cloud movement, even at lower altitudes (1000 m) was from the S.W. Good wind shear which assisted the formation of the tornado at Chertsey. Lightning discharge was not seen on lightning detector app. The thundery activity this month also included a single strike near Bracknell on Saturday 14th in evening during the torrential rain and hail that affected Romsey. There were more widespread thunderstorms in the Basingstoke and Farnborough areas moving over towards Heathrow Airport late on Sunday 15th. There was some hail at Guildford at 1714 from an isolated shower and 2254~2258 from the main activity which was much heavier further west and north.
  14. Why I am not feeling enthusiastic about the coming winter. Where do I start? (1) Winter's which are preceded by endless wet, dismal and depressing weather through the autumn (2019). Bad enough having to suffer cold, wet, disappointing snow-less dross through the winter months without extending it back into the autumn, although it hasn't been too cold yet. (2) I am a keen cyclist and dislike endless days of rain, especially if in small and frequent amounts such as every day like at present. Sick to death already of having to juggle ride times to avoid rain, cold and wind or grin-and-bear-it and have an unenjoyable ride in the vile weather followed by wasting endless hours sorting out wet clothes and repairing the bike parts which wear quicker in the dampness and wet, possibly being without bike for a while if more extensive repairs are needed at the shop. I love cycling and being outdoors and not stuck indoors with day-in day-out vile weather. Timing of the rare 'decent' day coinciding with days in the week when I can't ride (work) followed by days off being wet, too cold or windy for a decent ride or having to cancel. (3) Winters dominated by marginal snow setups which deliver everywhere else while Guildford misses out again and gets cold rain. (4) I work in retail and Christmas is sometimes a nightmare and adds to the misery of a miserable season. (5) Colds, coughs and flu which last longer in winter and having to slog away at work with a hacking cough, especially near Christmas in the cold, damp and unpleasant conditions. (6) Transport chaos, especially at Christmas when I have no choice but to have to visit relatives (father suffering with dementia) and have to cycle in bad weather. Yet another Christmas period of chaos and disruption due to the usual engineering works and another strike (name and shame: RMT and southwestern railway). Dreading Christmas already for this reason and if the weather is anything but mild and dry with light winds then the entire period is going to be a real nightmare with having to cycle 17 miles each way with a heavy rucksack. (7) Long periods of darkness and little sun. (8) As I get older, I am beginning to dislike low temperatures all the more but still appreciate 'inversion cold' or proper severe cold with snow which can be very exciting. I just loathe the false / pseudo-cold with high wind chill in damp and dull conditions. (9) Getting to October / November and knowing >20 deg.C won't be reached again for 5-6 months. Sad seeing the summer / early autumn fade away. (10) People ramping and getting excited about a synoptic situation that will not bring snow or an interesting event to the area where I live, especially if this fever-pitch excitement is in November before the winter has even started. If December is really going to be like 1981 or 2010 with proper snow and impressive severe cold, then there really is something to be excited about and interested in, although the ensuing travel chaos is not welcome. (11) Media hyping that it will be the coldest winter since 1963, like it was last year, the year before and the year before that etc. (12) Features of specific winter weather which I dislike: (a) Ice and icy roads after marginal snow event failures and then the wet surfaces freeze when skies clear after the fronts move away (2017/2018). (b) Missing out on the all to rare interesting events such as snow and winter thunderstorms / hail (winters 2014/2015 and 2017/2018 before late February). (c) Rain in small or mediocre amounts on a daily basis (2014/2015 winter - a truly vile one). (d) Easterly situations that just produce disappointing cold, damp and drizzly weather although the synoptics suggest something more interesting (2005/2006). (e) The Azores High causing cold zonality and the set-ups unfavourable for snow in the south but still have to suffer unsettled weather without anything of interest. If it's going to be cold - we want snow and proper low temperatures or it can stay mild. (f) Drizzle - hate the stuff. (g) Long periods of strong winds in a westerly or W.N.W.ly warm sector rather than a milder S.W.ly warm sector (another feature of the much-disliked cold zonality set-up). (h) Cold weather extending into March after mediocre conditions in February and the cold is not of the snow-bearing type (1996, 2001, 2006, 2013 - a disappointing month in the Guildford area but good elsewhere). I used to dislike the Bartlett high situation and dry winters like 1991/1992, mainly due to the absence of snow and 'boring' weather. These winter scenarios are appreciated much more these days as I have enjoyed a few snowy winters (2008/2009 through to 2012/2013) and the yearning for snow has lessened a bit. However, I don't enjoy missing out on the snow if there is a chance of a favourable situation. I'd take dry (mild or sunny cold) any day over cold and wet as I can get out on the bike much more in the favourable conditions. The late February warm and sunny spell of 2019 was truly beautiful. It was a pity that this was superseded by a windy, drizzly and unpleasant period through March and not by a memorable snow event as in 1891 when a similar February 'heatwave' gave way to a major snow event in the south between 9th~13th March!
  15. I remember the passage of this depression over southern England on Tuesday 21st September 1982. Having reached 26 deg.C 3 days earlier in a period of lovely anticyclonic warm autumn weather, this was quite a shock to the system. Like this autumn, the ex-Debby depression was the beginning of a long wet autumn, starting around 20th/21st September, with plenty of interesting weather including several large rainfall totals (eg. 2nd October, 27 mm; 22nd October, 30 mm or so), violent / dramatic cold fronts and a memorable gale on Friday 12th November associated with a very active cold front. 1982 was a more boisterous and wetter autumn than 2019 but the pattern is similar. Stormy weather continued in December with a gale on the 9th uprooting a tree resulting in a train getting de-railed near Fleet, Hants. I remember that following the passage of the ex-Debby depression on the 21st, where there had been strong and gusty winds in the morning, 9 mm rain including another active cold front around 11 am, the afternoon was quieter with a light northerly wind and sunny periods. The low was quite shallow, 1000 mb, when passing over the south steered by a larger low over or near to Scotland. A cold night followed with a minimum temperature of 2 deg.C. on Wednesday 22nd.
×
×
  • Create New...