chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Everything posted by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards
chrisbell-nottheweatherman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Apologies to Mods for OT, but what is Shagwell's Entropy (he asks suspecting a trap!)? -
WeatherWeb.net now suggesting that the long-range CFS is showing a screaming Jet for the whole of the winter. On top of that, they're playing-down this coming weekend as well, away from the Scottish and Welsh mountains and the northern Pennines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_tI808TATo
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Similar here to Matt's conditions over on the Fens. We did have a couple of very light showers lat morning, and it's been blustery, but not the slate grey with slack winds and continuous drizzle of a week or so ago.
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Just as well for me that I can barely understand a word he says!
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Nasty day, but perhaps more seasonal than the drizzly muck of a few days back.
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Cheers Matt - I hasten to add that I wasn't arguing. I genuinely wondered which it was.
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Was it a squall line/upper trough or a shortwave feature, Matt?
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It was pretty blustery earlier as the shortwave(?) came through, but it's merely breezy now.
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Sunny first thing here - cloudy, chilly and blustery now with short-lived bursts of rain as we seem to be at the northern edge of the rain (is it a shortwave trough?)
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How can we be sure that we're not conflating those possibilities when viewing the outputs?
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Seems unlikely, but cold air associated with a switch from Tropical Maritime to Polar Maritime air could cause lifting I suppose.
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Almost a repeat of yesterday, in fact. Good to read over on the MOD thread that, after the Sunday to Tuesday period, we should see the back of the cloudy, mild south-westerly feed for a while at least.
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Discussing the credentials of someone whose insight is relevant?
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Much the same here, Matt.
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Indeed - just wondering what "bigsnow" had in mind - his 'short' might not be the same as mine.
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How short is short, though?
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Same as me, though I'm not a shark specialist as he is.
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Presumably he is a Meteorologist, then? I certainly thought he was...
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Allow me to quote him directly:
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Prolonged cold and snow (other than in exceptional years such as 2010/11 or 2012/13) is unlikely in my part of the country before the New Year. At present, all I want is more seasonal temperatures and some polar maritime air to give a few more bright days, as we're having so far today.
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Thanks Ian. I'm not that good at interpreting model outputs, but I know who to listen to on here in order to have a balanced view, and that was certainly noted.
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Much nicer here today - decent sunny spells so far (including, appropriately enough, for the 2 minutes' silence at 11) and plenty of blue sky. Clouds mostly cirroform.
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If you don't mind, Ian, I'd like to copy your post in order to quote it (fully-attributed to yourself, of course) when other get a bit OTT.
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I honestly doubt he'd claim to be able to predict the entirety of the winter from this far out with much confidence.
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Thanks for the details mate! I recall the late January 2003 snow as I was in my final Undergraduate year at UEA and was doing a research project which saw me spending a fair bit of my time in a third-floor lab overlooking the slope down to University Broad (for anyone who knows the campus). It was pretty bleak that day seeing the snow falling heavily from a leaden sky, but also quite picturesque.
