Devon-Nelly
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Posts posted by Devon-Nelly
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http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data
Good news in regards to July/August, April saw a surge in the easterly QBO value to -24, which indicates that the easterly QBO should peak in May or June assuming we do not see a record event, this tips the scales away from 70/30 cool, to 50/50 average imo and i would quite strongly expect an above average August now.
Would this be because the -QBO signal would weaken allowing the Jet stream moving further northand weaken the Northern blocking, making for warmer weather to be more likely?
And if so on that basis we could be looking at a fairly cool June, a more average July and Warm August? I personally think June will see fits and bursts of warm weather alternating with more prolonged cooler periods.
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I'd personally be happy if every summer was like 2005, it was a right mixed bag something for everyone.
The second half of June was the most best part of the summer for me as it has to be one of the best periods of weather i've wintessed in the Uk, glorious sunshine temps in the low to mid 20's and a couple of violent spanish plumes to boot as well, my kind of summer weather lol.
We've not had anything along those lines since 2006.
To reach 30c is a big achievement for here, apart from 2003 we only managed it on one day in 2004 and on two in 2006. Temps rarely reach anything higher than 25c and when they do its normally just for the odd day, but with the humidity it normally feels just as hot anyways.
My hottest temps since 2003 have been:-
2003: 33c
2004: 30c
2005: 29c
2006: 30c (bit unsure of what the exact temp was but it was at least 30c)
2007: 25.7c
2008: 24.8c
2009: 26.6c
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I still think we're going to have a more average summer this year, maybe a cooler version of 2005? With cool wet periods alternating with warm /very warm dry spells.
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Does anybody know of the address and name of the hotel we are staying in first on the trip? As im applying for my ESTA and i need the name and address of the first hotel we are staying in on the application.
Aside from that have been watching alot of the forecasts on Accuweather and it looks to be pretty ace for the rest of this week for some big storms, they reckon the risk will run through till Monday and gradually move eastwards.
Only 4 and a half weeks to go now lol
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2007 was an awful summer both July & August came in 1c below average along with being exceptionally wet during June & July.
2008 had an average and fairly dry June, July was mostly cool and wet until the last week where it turned very warm/hot and sunny and August is a perfect example of a CET that doesn't reprersent the full picture of the month. Daytime temps were roughly around 16c -19c and hitting of the month which is on the cool side however night time temperatures were around 13c - 15c hence the month ended up being around avergae because of this despite being a dull & wet.
2009 We had a warm and dry June, July was cool and wet after a warm dry start and August was abit of a mix and was more average. So last summer was more average than the previous two.
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I think this summer could end up being in a similar vain to 2005, with spells of cool wet weather but also some decent spells of very warm dry weather. But it is proving a difficult one to call this year, i think its going to boil down to what the NAO does week on week.
I have been looking back at the QBO status over previous summers and i have manged to find a pattern between the NAO and -QBO status. During -QBO summers the more close to Neutral the NAO is the more settled and warmer the summers have been and the more Neative or Positive the NAO the more wetter and cooler. So if the NAO nose dives or goes negative by a big enough margin then very wet and cool weather will be more likely but if it stays near neutral/slightly positive like it has been at times this month then warm dry weather will be more likely (hence the reason why i think april has been so dry and settled, coupled with the weak jet stream)
I was convinced we were going to see a warm summer last year due mainly to the weak el Nino but alas after the nice warm June it didn't quite pan out that way, although south and eastern areas got a fairly decent summer.
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Hi Ashley
Have sent you 2 messages about the Chase Bio's but your messenger is on "Block" so any chance you could get something to me about yourself by the end of this week, going to put the Chase Bio thread up at the weekend.
Regards
Paul S
Hi Paul,
Sorry about that i didn't realise it was on block, i've sent you a reply back with my bit for the bio now anyhows i hope its ok.
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That is a tough call I went for long enough on a standard package holiday insurance but for the last three years have been with Go Walk About because they actually cover stormchasing. They are more expensive but it is my choice to go with them though.
Tom
Thanks Tom i may look into that
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Almost got everything sorted now, just renewing the passport and then need to get the ESTA sorted after that.
I've got my insurance from travel supermarket.com is that alright for the trip or do i need it from one of the top insurance companies? As im worried it wont be enough.
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If I remember rightly July 2006 was not record-breaking either temperature or sunshine wise over much of south-western Britain, eclipsed in terms of heat by July 1983 and sunshine wise by quite a few other Julys.
It was mainly the Midlands and northern & eastern England that saw temperature and sunshine records smashed by significant margins.
Yes i remember reading somewhere that '83 had been warmer across the south-west, wouldn't mind having a summer month like that as it was also pretty thundery wasnt it?
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The heatwave in August 2003 has to be the longest hottest spell of weather i've witnessed in the uk, although it didnt get to the dizzy heights that it did in the south and east it still reached 30c on 5 days and 33c was the e highest i recorded but to reach 30c here is like the holy grail. Its only reached it a couple of times since and hasnt done for nearly 4 years now.
I was in Greece during the fortnight of heat in Jul 06
but i know it only hit 30c a couple of times, although it was still persistantly very warm/hot. -
The last 3 summers have been pretty crap down here, although last year was more average than the previous 2 we had a very warm and dry June with temps frequently hitting the mid 20s reaching 25c-26c for 3 days straight but July was awful after a pleasantly warm first week it struggled to reach 20c after that, and August was almost average so it was an ok-ish summer.
I persoanlly wouldn't mind if every summer was like 2005 it had everything mixed into a bag and i think it was nearest we've had to a typical british summer in the last decade. (Although we had a warm June and August was pretty warm across the south only June) We had the most stunning spanish plume in June with 6 storms in one day from 4am - 11am and it still reached 24c under thick cloud all day, we had a 2 week period in July were temps reached anthing from 22/3c -29c and August was persistantly sunny and very warm with temps in the mid 20's with the odd cooler day.
It will be intreasting to see how this years pans out, i think Spring will be pretty fickle during the first half with it chopping between cold and warm and then turning gradually warmer and dryier from mid April-ish onwards as El Nino weakens, am i right in thinking that the QBO goes back into its possitive (westerly) phase this year? I personaly dont think El Nino will be gone till June/July which could give us a boost for a warmer and possibly drier first half to summer but we'll have to wait and see.
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Im starting to get giddy about the trip now as its my first ever storm chase and been wanting to do it since i watched twister as a kid (would love to work out there studing them) and its going to be amazing!!
Hopefully there will be some big beefy storms about, just can't wait to see the full force of a supercell storm raging across the plains with a tornado in tow
.Is there any correlation between El Nino and La Nina years in regards to how many tornadoes there are? I would think the cold snowy winter they have had will aid some big storms if everything falls into place.
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I think Spring is going to be swings and roundabouts with a mostly cold first half at least with it being fairly unsettled and I think that this summer could possibly go either way this year , especailly if El Nino keeps up (but its abit early for summer yet)
It will be intreasting to see how this spring pans out i feel.
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One thing i would like to remind people on as you have just commented on the gfs being the best all week, is not to expect the 18z to be as good or better. If it does turn out to be worse in terms of cold and snow dont take it as gospel until weve seen the subsequent 12z tomorrow.
Well the way this month has been i don't whether im coming or going at times lol it has literally flipped and flopped.
But im not taking it by the gospel i know there will be downgrades there always is, just trying to be optimistic as everyone seems so doom and gloom, though your right it will most likely flip and change before we get to the day itself so taking each run with a pinch of salt from the nearly empty grit bin is the best way to go lol
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Well the latest GFS is the best we've had all week, staying very cold with a continued Northerly/North westerly flow across the uk with the possibility of quite widespread sleet/snow showers and judging by the upper air temps the -5c line is way into Northern France by mid-week so it doesn't look so marginal at all, we've had far more marginal close set ups.
Ok its not showing sub zero temps and dry powdery snow everywhere but its still cold/ very cold and there is a big potential for sleet and snow maybe even to lower levels in the south and south east if troughs were to develop in the system, i would rather have this set up than a mild one anyday.
Im begining to think we could just see reloads of this sort of pattern till Early March, but who knows its just a hunch.
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Had light sleet here on and off since 7pm, feels bitter as that wind has really wipped up.
3c with DP 1c.
Think we may have a smilar week to that of Feb '06 where we had frequent light/moderate snow flurries, im still optimistic that we're at the start of a long very cold spell despite the models not favouring it so much at the moment.
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I've not seen any comments from the Meto about this yet but will be intreasting to see what they say, but i think it's amazing that these two months have gone down on record i never thought i'd see the day when the word "cold" and "record" came in the same sentence.
You guys must have amazing data up there from Dec & Jan.
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It may turn more to snow overnight, you never know lol
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Can anybody in Cornwall and West Devon confirm what that green blob down your neck of the woods is falling as? It looks pretty intense in some spots
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Just had a fleeting 5 minute snow shower here which was a nice suprise, hopefully more to come tonight.
Temp: 3.5c
DP: 1C
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My inatial thoughts on Feb right back in December were of it being a possible cold/very cold month, mainly due to my thinking El Nino would start to wane, that el nino winters tend to be more colder late on, low solar activty, -QBO and also i had read somewhere might have been on here about the likely hood of a stratospheric warming being more likely due to the solar activity and the -QBO state, so with these in mind i had tentive thoughts about Feb either being Very cold or Very Mild depending on how things panned out.
I'm still sticking with Feb being cold/ possibly very cold and quite dry so my early punt at the moment is for 1.9c
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Just plain boring sleet here although it keeps flicking to snow for literally seconds and when it does its like a blizzard, but i wasn't expecting it to snow down this neck of the woods, but i am suprised why its snowed in Plymouth yet we have sleet
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Trying not to get my hopes up about Tuesday but its very hard lol. Hopefully we'll get some heavy snow and possibly some accumilations, the snow we had on Wed is only starting to melt now as the snow has turned wet from the powery stuff we've had all day.
But im not really taking much notice of the models as they struggle with these setups as it is, with a southerly tracking jet stream and a very cold pool of air at the surface across the Uk its going to cause them some headaches, i think its likely to turn less cold during the middle part of the week for the South and South West but staying pretty cold up North still before turning colder at the weekend possibly, i don't think we are out of the woods yet lol.
but i know it only hit 30c a couple of times, although it was still persistantly very warm/hot.
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Chase 2010 - Day 32 Discussion
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Gosh i can't believe im flying out to the states tommorow.
I've been reading the reports and the photos so far from all the tours and they look increadible, there has been so many storms over there, i must admit i've never watched the weather as closely as this in the states before but is there normally this many storms each spring? It truly fancinating.
So I've got my cameras at the ready lol, though it first time with a video camera.