Devon-Nelly

Gosh i can't believe im flying out to the states tommorow. I've been reading the reports and the photos so far from all the tours and they look increadible, there has been so many storms over there, i must admit i've never watched the weather as closely as this in the states before but is there normally this many storms each spring? It truly fancinating. So I've got my cameras at the ready lol, though it first time with a video camera.

Would this be because the -QBO signal would weaken allowing the Jet stream moving further northand weaken the Northern blocking, making for warmer weather to be more likely? And if so on that basis we could be looking at a fairly cool June, a more average July and Warm August? I personally think June will see fits and bursts of warm weather alternating with more prolonged cooler periods.

I'd personally be happy if every summer was like 2005, it was a right mixed bag something for everyone. The second half of June was the most best part of the summer for me as it has to be one of the best periods of weather i've wintessed in the Uk, glorious sunshine temps in the low to mid 20's and a couple of violent spanish plumes to boot as well, my kind of summer weather lol. We've not had anything along those lines since 2006. To reach 30c is a big achievement for here, apart from 2003 we only managed it on one day in 2004 and on two in 2006. Temps rarely reach anything higher than 25c and when they do its normally just for the odd day, but with the humidity it normally feels just as hot anyways. My hottest temps since 2003 have been:- 2003: 33c 2004: 30c 2005: 29c 2006: 30c (bit unsure of what the exact temp was but it was at least 30c) 2007: 25.7c 2008: 24.8c 2009: 26.6c

I still think we're going to have a more average summer this year, maybe a cooler version of 2005? With cool wet periods alternating with warm /very warm dry spells.

Does anybody know of the address and name of the hotel we are staying in first on the trip? As im applying for my ESTA and i need the name and address of the first hotel we are staying in on the application. Aside from that have been watching alot of the forecasts on Accuweather and it looks to be pretty ace for the rest of this week for some big storms, they reckon the risk will run through till Monday and gradually move eastwards. Only 4 and a half weeks to go now lol

2007 was an awful summer both July & August came in 1c below average along with being exceptionally wet during June & July. 2008 had an average and fairly dry June, July was mostly cool and wet until the last week where it turned very warm/hot and sunny and August is a perfect example of a CET that doesn't reprersent the full picture of the month. Daytime temps were roughly around 16c -19c and hitting of the month which is on the cool side however night time temperatures were around 13c - 15c hence the month ended up being around avergae because of this despite being a dull & wet. 2009 We had a warm and dry June, July was cool and wet after a warm dry start and August was abit of a mix and was more average. So last summer was more average than the previous two.

I think this summer could end up being in a similar vain to 2005, with spells of cool wet weather but also some decent spells of very warm dry weather. But it is proving a difficult one to call this year, i think its going to boil down to what the NAO does week on week. I have been looking back at the QBO status over previous summers and i have manged to find a pattern between the NAO and -QBO status. During -QBO summers the more close to Neutral the NAO is the more settled and warmer the summers have been and the more Neative or Positive the NAO the more wetter and cooler. So if the NAO nose dives or goes negative by a big enough margin then very wet and cool weather will be more likely but if it stays near neutral/slightly positive like it has been at times this month then warm dry weather will be more likely (hence the reason why i think april has been so dry and settled, coupled with the weak jet stream) I was convinced we were going to see a warm summer last year due mainly to the weak el Nino but alas after the nice warm June it didn't quite pan out that way, although south and eastern areas got a fairly decent summer.

Hi Paul, Sorry about that i didn't realise it was on block, i've sent you a reply back with my bit for the bio now anyhows i hope its ok.

Thanks Tom i may look into that

Almost got everything sorted now, just renewing the passport and then need to get the ESTA sorted after that. I've got my insurance from travel supermarket.com is that alright for the trip or do i need it from one of the top insurance companies? As im worried it wont be enough.

Yes i remember reading somewhere that '83 had been warmer across the south-west, wouldn't mind having a summer month like that as it was also pretty thundery wasnt it?

The heatwave in August 2003 has to be the longest hottest spell of weather i've witnessed in the uk, although it didnt get to the dizzy heights that it did in the south and east it still reached 30c on 5 days and 33c was the e highest i recorded but to reach 30c here is like the holy grail. Its only reached it a couple of times since and hasnt done for nearly 4 years now. I was in Greece during the fortnight of heat in Jul 06 but i know it only hit 30c a couple of times, although it was still persistantly very warm/hot.

The last 3 summers have been pretty crap down here, although last year was more average than the previous 2 we had a very warm and dry June with temps frequently hitting the mid 20s reaching 25c-26c for 3 days straight but July was awful after a pleasantly warm first week it struggled to reach 20c after that, and August was almost average so it was an ok-ish summer. I persoanlly wouldn't mind if every summer was like 2005 it had everything mixed into a bag and i think it was nearest we've had to a typical british summer in the last decade. (Although we had a warm June and August was pretty warm across the south only June) We had the most stunning spanish plume in June with 6 storms in one day from 4am - 11am and it still reached 24c under thick cloud all day, we had a 2 week period in July were temps reached anthing from 22/3c -29c and August was persistantly sunny and very warm with temps in the mid 20's with the odd cooler day. It will be intreasting to see how this years pans out, i think Spring will be pretty fickle during the first half with it chopping between cold and warm and then turning gradually warmer and dryier from mid April-ish onwards as El Nino weakens, am i right in thinking that the QBO goes back into its possitive (westerly) phase this year? I personaly dont think El Nino will be gone till June/July which could give us a boost for a warmer and possibly drier first half to summer but we'll have to wait and see.

Im starting to get giddy about the trip now as its my first ever storm chase and been wanting to do it since i watched twister as a kid (would love to work out there studing them) and its going to be amazing!! Hopefully there will be some big beefy storms about, just can't wait to see the full force of a supercell storm raging across the plains with a tornado in tow . Is there any correlation between El Nino and La Nina years in regards to how many tornadoes there are? I would think the cold snowy winter they have had will aid some big storms if everything falls into place.

I think Spring is going to be swings and roundabouts with a mostly cold first half at least with it being fairly unsettled and I think that this summer could possibly go either way this year , especailly if El Nino keeps up (but its abit early for summer yet) It will be intreasting to see how this spring pans out i feel.