casparjack

I am with the above comments about the side-bar, even on a large monitor it feels very cramped and the content is a distraction. Each to their own though, so an option to disable/enable would be great.

Hey ho indeed...

I completely agree, however the issue I rather suspect, is that they consider the data to be 'theirs', rather like the jealously guarded attitude to sharing NWP output.

I was looking at the CET earlier to compare with my own records - Philip Eden has the latest figures on his site as 5.2c (-0.3c) - so just below. http://www.climate-uk.com/ Not wanting to be contrary, just trying to help...

'Weeks to come out of' - says who and why - you can't come out of something you're not already in? Sounds like pattern matching again to me, (or something worse), unless you provide justification for your thinking with charts, which would be a novelty for the members in here. If the high to the NE does come into play, can you explain how you foresee the jet running over the top as you keep describing, surely what you mean is that there will be no link and the jet will continue to run between the two. As ever you're trolling the thread trying to wind people up, you've been calling what you rather poorly explain above since the end of November in a number of threads, yet here we are on the evening of the 12th December and we are yet to see what you describe, with the models only really hinting at its development by T216 - acknowledged by a majority of experienced players as real FI. You always appear to be so certain in your statements, yet they don't become reality as far as I can remember; go on prove me wrong with evidence of past success...

I was just looking at the T240 frames from the 12z ECM and exactly the same occurred to me, the build in pressure to the East is very apparent, as is the Azores high, in between we have a real squeeze going on; any number of outcomes are possible from here, though one of them could be mild...

Maybe I missed it amongst all the bickering, but I haven't seen any reference to the FAX chart for 0600 tomorrow; it shows the 'middle' low at 943mbs, this still has the potential to be very notable...

It would be unlikely to fall afterwards!!

Not trying to be pedantic, but meteorologically speaking you have had a frost, 0.0c is freezing point and is therefore classed as an air frost from a recording perspective. My first air frost of the season yesterday morning, 10th December -0.7c.

I think they'll say it's going to be very windy on Thursday night and Friday!!

It may well be the outcome as you have been predicting, but as I said in my post we'll have to wait and see - I still have my doubts, you clearly don't... Some members, but not me. I come here to discuss what the models show not semantics - leave it to the mods!!

I think that's spot on - if you predict something for long enough then eventually it will happen; I'm afraid we've seen him do it too many times before. Who really knows right now which way it will go, it does look as if the stormy spell has about a week to run, but really after that any number of scenarios could emerge - though I accept that at the moment deep cold is perhaps the outsider as far as December is concerned.

CC I fully appreciate what you're saying here and I too would love to see a prolonged cold spell; however I think what many people fail to appreciate, is that although you say one third of winter is already written off, what we are experiencing at the moment and expecting in the next couple of weeks is really typical British winter weather so we shouldn't actually expect anything else despite what we coldies might wish for...

I have to say that whilst there may ultimately be some merit in pattern matching, I am yet to be convinced; I just feel there are too many variables to be taken into account for it to be a credible and viable form of prediction. Our relatively small available sample (100 years or so of reliable chart records) is just too narrow for any really robust method to be devised in my opinion. I don't doubt the potential for it to follow as before, but it could just as easily do something totally different as the models currently indicate - they could and no doubt will change though in the next 96 hours or so...

I've taken out the charts to avoid using loads of additional space, but considering they are the 'ensemble means', they all look remarkably similar to me, apart from subtle differences in the position of the high (none of them favouring real cold for the UK) - I think that gives a very strong and perhaps largely unwelcome signal.