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Everything posted by lorenzo
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Read the room EC for goodness sake... Am not buying this run re: the 150hPa and 475K profile, I think it may be retaining too much energy in the Canadian daughter vortice. Still, it goes without saying, you really need the EC to align to have any sense of confidence in direction of travel.. doubt any of us would bet against it. Let's hope it's having it's own wobble 24 hrs after the US counterpart did.
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The vortex can split at differing levels if elongated; top down warming can occur which may preclude splits happening lower in the vortex. Tropospheric led splits at lower levels are pretty much what we all like to see - given the notoriety of the 2009 SSW. Rather than top down or bottom up - we tend to view things as either displacement or split events impacting on the vortex.
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You are looking at the right things - yes. To save you some work this site may help give a sense of the tilt in the vortex brought about by the Wave 1 forcing on the vortex. This links shows the tilt across the vortex structure vs height. StratObserve Vertical Vortex Structure STRATOBSERVE.COM The 3D view is also a great visibile representation. StratObserve 3D Vortex STRATOBSERVE.COM And finally, an easy way to view across the pressure levels from the Berlin site Institute of Meteorology - Working Group Atmospheric Dynamics - ECMWF 240 h forecasts January 05 2024 12 UTC USERS.MET.FU-BERLIN.DE
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Given the pace of the model thread jumping in here to add some output, almost too much to look at right now given NWP output, Strat Output, MJO in play and AAM turning the corner. First off picked the 30hPa level given the top of the envelope projections shown in Merra for a couple of variables driven by the strong W1 warming. Lovely view of the progression of the warming and the impacts on the vortex as it distends and is split. Also viewable as animation here , graphics not as great - but does highlight another pulse of warming out at D10. Then the 100hPa look which is probably the most exciting one currently in terms of echoes to NWP and what is driving chaos and variability. Vortices splitting at just 72 hrs and the energy shearing from the Canadian lobe spirals south - whipping across the Atlantic. The Canadian lobe pulling back, whilst the Siberian lobe progams the Northerly regime. Interesting to analyse these views as the exchange of energy between the daughter vortices provides neat insight into what may translate into NWP. It is a delicate balance of separation from the split in terms of how the vortices interact. Friday update saw only brief separation and energy transfer from the parent Siberian vortice back to Canada - reinvigorating the aforementioned filament and placing further pressure on the ridge attempt into Greenland, so much so in fact - it looked to be heading to a Scandi solution before getting stuck halfway house in the 'no mans land' which leaves us looking at less than appealing from a cold perspective output. This break is far from resolved yet and given it is happening within next 72 hrs, twists and turns to come. In relation to the MJO - beginning to look more coherent and composites show the direction of travel imprinting, it is never a=b for these so use as guidance, last updated in 2014 so nearly a decade of data not in them. A vortex already heavily assaulted this winter, technical SSW or not - it feels as good as one currently, with more duress ahead. Wondering if January is just an appetizer for February as AAM rebounds.. Finally a look at the development of the blocking regimes from Xmas Eve to date from EC as we progress from nowhere to the stuff we all like to see from a cold ( and dry) perspective in Winter.
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Beast from the errr .. West.. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4997207
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Got to love the pub run when it serves up one of it's specials, utterly bonkers. We eventually end up with another low pivoting in from the west too - a run where the floodgates open. Very difficult to qualify this given the extreme solution offered, sadly one likely for the shredder, amusing nonetheless to watch. @Ravelin Hopefully you haven't jinxed anything and it was the tyre booking that helped the stars align. Prelims done already in West Lothian, so strange Scottish schools have a) weird holidays and b) so much variation in what they are all doing at different times..
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Stronger looking heat flux evident later in the month.. an already weakened SPV under renewed attack..
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1070hPa over Greenland, menacing TPV to the East solidifying an already frozen solid Scandinavia, Europe directly into the freezer, ruined Vortex. Delightful !
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
lorenzo replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a new look for the break.. Well it is the Friday 18z - ( the Saturday 00z and 06z are usually absolute dubiety- 12z to 12z is the way to go for Friday into Saturdays ( years of wondering WTAF) ) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
lorenzo replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and detracts from the quality of the thread. Take a moment and think if your post would add value to the thread or derail it please. -
Looking at heat flux anomalies Xmas Day has perhaps a stronger pulse vs Wednesday to consider your original question at the top of the page Nick, not sure if this answers in full it could in part explain some of the subsequent output. Still a fair bit of time until the 7th to see how this one plays through. The animation from 00z this morning is neat to watch how the vortex ingests it's New Year shot of Heat Flux, distends and splits. Weather Maps - Temperature FLUID.NCCS.NASA.GOV Fluid provides applications for interactive analysis and visualizations of meteorological and chemical output from GMAO-supported forecast and reanalysis models Lots of energy remaining over Greenland / Canada still and some chaotic filaments flaying off will make NWP jump around considerably I think. Whether we do get a technical SSW with the u reversal, or whether we do get to +3 or 4 ms-1 seems almost moot with respect to - it's degraded either way and primed for the next MJO go around. Perhaps the old 1 / 2 needed for it this time round...
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