lorenzo

Oh... go on then...

I mean you could trust your own tyres and driving - but if something else veers lanes or jack-knifes - game over.. There was a vid from about a decade ago where just that very thing happened - it was a 100% wipeout. Car got annihalated.

Urgh - this live stream is giving me the fear... could easily change into another type of video very quickly

Old school kiltie LS pinged me this one on X ! Oaft.

And the media, if you could call this channel actual media.. go wild. Gotta love AI.

UKMO 12Z is a great run for Scotland if you like cold, and snow for some.. Lovely flood of -10 850hPa too.. Anticipated snowcover creating some incredible TMin projections..

EC shows this feature traversing the country, at this range so many different solutions on how this unfolds. GFS different with path across the country as it drops SSE. It will take a nowcast nearer the time to see what actually happens, wouldn't trust these at 48 hrs even just now. Fax from last night with a less direct Northerly. Found a low of -16C for Windchill, for those of you up the top of a mountain, nevertheless will be biting.

Bring on Sunday... and let the fun and games commence... latest Icon.

We've all been there.... Good News : you are in the right thread for any immediate counselling. Bad News: you are on the cusp of a life-time addiction of looking at charts endlessly over Winter, it's an affliction that cannot be cured! Side Effects include gazing at lamp-posts.

The GFS Operational Run will resolve at a higher resolution than the ensembles which are perturbed from the Operational Run - so by that nature they will be deliberately different from the Operational. We look for clustering at near term or across the duration of a run to see where the Operational Run clusters within ensembles - this on occasion gives a sense of the balance of probablity and direction of travel. However, given the chaotic nature of things - you can see all variations within this, sometimes the Operational run is an outlier and it is discarded as being a 'poor run', or on occasion an Operational Run can depart from the ensembles and eventually be realised as a new trend - with the lower resolution ensembles playing catch up. In relation to the other part around GFS vs. other models, this is where looking in the round at e.g. ICON, GEM, UKMO, GFS, EC - plus Ens provides a steer and if a group of other models are showing one thing where the GFS is not, then likelihood is that the GFS solution can be discarded or at very least viewed with great sceptism. Generally for our islands we really want the confidence of 2/3 of GFS, UKMO, EC being aligned to have confidence, preferrably EC / UKMO. Couple of links on the mechanics in the models below. GFS WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV GEFS WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Yep - here's the evening commute home.. Clicked the W/E symbol in error.

Found my favourite ensemble ! Scale on 850s moving from -12 to -15 from 00z to 12z and a decent mean for 500hPa.

I come bearing gifs... and yes this is from the much maligned GFS, which will wobble for 48 hrs yet.. looks healthy from a Northerly perspective then the spectre of some frontal snow as next week unfolds. Plethora of Wave breaks creating carnage - the Pacific Ridge, the Canadian vortex disruption and the filament of PV rattling into Europe, the manifestation of the Greenland High, and, the rotation of the main vortex over Russia. No model will have this locked.

Heatflux advertising the forecast blocking impacts, nudging their way to 10hPa on the evolution plot. PV type charts show a 'slider-esque' regime / wave guide. Thereafter a definitive reduction in strength of the Canadian vs European Vortices. Decent view up through the layers on the GPH plots also. Out at day 10 vortex under continued duress

After that 06z - I reckon we can upgrade the ramp a little further SIS...

This is the EC Ens tonight. Proof the Op is not handling the break..

Don't forget these bad boys - the analogs this week have been beyond retro ! Was questioning whether they even included this century- but they do ! 04th Jan 0 from 2000s 2 from 90s 1 from 80s 2 from 70s 3 from 60s 2 from 50s That's the rarity covered vs historic and current. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4998653

Thanks Nick - these are retro tools and a bit of a rewind to what we had at our disposal to guess between NWP runs. Then in the evening, we had one page of postage stamps from EC Ens and no clusters, and had to derive on our own what looked like the cluster of choice. The CPC charts above, the 12z changes, and then the duty forecaster input on the model blend for the day - it kinda told us the way and qualified our model thread analysis, or, enhanced it, or, gave us an idea which model they gave weight to. These super analogs have now possibly been surpassed given the AGW age and artefacts, but when we are deep in a Canadian Warming ( Genuine) regime, last 4 years seeing Nov action on vortex ( previously named OPI), and it envokes such rarity, it leads to looking at retro things / tollgates for incursions, and surpisingly results.... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4998718

If if you haven't got the heart for hardcore - purist model watching shenanigans- then, come back on Weds at 12z This is model output discussion (UK) , Disco ( US). It's a grind, it's a trip, it's hard work and hours, good luck - enjoy. Not for everyone..

Everything beyond 96hrs right now on 00z/06z/12/18z is pure chaos, why.. that filament. It's okay - the direction of travel is solid, this kinda break and what it delivers is programmed, it's just he inter-run flavours to enjoy. We cannot see what the ECM rolls with, but can infer given later output. GFS break vs Ec h5 at 500 UKMO 168 remains chart of the day in amongst all the noise.

Thanks Nick - these are retro tools and a bit of a rewind to what we had at our disposal to guess between NWP runs. Then in the evening, we had one page of postage stamps from EC Ens and no clusters, and had to derive on our own what looked like the cluster of choice. The CPC charts above, the 12z changes, and then the duty forecaster input on the model blend for the day - it kinda told us the way and qualified our model thread analysis, or, enhanced it, or, gave us an idea which model they gave weight to. These super analogs have now possibly been surpassed given the AGW age and artefacts, but when we are deep in a Canadian Warming ( Genuine) regime, last 4 years seeing Nov action on vortex ( previously named OPI), and it envokes such rarity, it leads to looking at retro things / tollgates for incursions, and surpisingly results....

It's good.

Don't forget these bad boys - the analogs this week have been beyond retro ! Was questioning whether they even included this century- but they do ! 04th Jan 0 from 2000s 2 from 90s 1 from 80s 2 from 70s 3 from 60s 2 from 50s That's the rarity covered vs historic and current.

It's alright... this one isnt

Let's do this pub run...