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lorenzo

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    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Urgh - something of a SNAW SHIELD here.. remaining optimistic though..

    Don't think any of the models had this down really.. Expected decay by the time things had traversed the Central Belt, but it's a shame that initial pulse did not slam into West Coast and went South, the main pulse know looks right on track to reinforce those who are posting good pics already. Perhaps that red line can get organised and feed in across Central Belt during remainder of today.

    image.thumb.png.5fc8cbb975f6f7658b7ed1074be06c87.png

    Hi res pic attached from world view too .

     

    snapshot-2024-01-16 (1).jpg

    • Like 11
    • Insightful 1

    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

    This is getting silly now. Met Office often are quite conservative with their minimum temperatures from experience and they are going for 2 nights at -12c in Dalwhinnie. Wife thinks I’m an absolute nutter for bringing a weather station, we’ve been together 15 years so I’m surprised she didn’t expect it already. 😂

    IMG_7605.thumb.jpeg.bf14ded88dfff6e1cc93aa0c74ffd366.jpeg

    Been on the Netweather Scottish Thread for one afternoon and this is what happens !!!

    Welcome to Scotland X 🙂

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 

    1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc.

    WhatsAppImage2024-01-12at17_20.37_3f7c799b.thumb.jpg.ab66bdacdbee13bb4dfc9f9c1ccb9410.jpg

    2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools.

    ezgif-4-2f83e3f58e.thumb.gif.d664147588f925bf83bd5c12e67c82f7.gif

    Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster.

    The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned.

    And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario.

    Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb.

    image.thumb.png.bc05d61a8a8a5c4c89bc3299abdfc7c0.png


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5009276
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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 

    1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc.

    WhatsAppImage2024-01-12at17_20.37_3f7c799b.thumb.jpg.ab66bdacdbee13bb4dfc9f9c1ccb9410.jpg

    2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools.

    ezgif-4-2f83e3f58e.thumb.gif.d664147588f925bf83bd5c12e67c82f7.gif

    Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster.

    The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned.

    And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario.

    Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb.

    image.thumb.png.bc05d61a8a8a5c4c89bc3299abdfc7c0.png

    • Like 38
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    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, howham said:

    I would expect some tremendous cloudscapes on Monday (maybe even Sunday here).  

    I love April for these when the last throws of the arctic pile South in a potent Northerly and convection kicks things up. Hopefully loads to add to the photo album over the coming week.

    We do have the wishbone aspect which leaves loads of us bloody freezing with little or no reward, still - February looks like it may deliver from something from a more North Eastern quarter which may assuage that..

    • Like 6
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    Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lorenzo

    @Eagle Eye adding your post here too given the work undertaken and quality of content, this thread slightly more slow moving than the main Model Disco.

    Also given your keen insight, and mind miles beyond my own - recommend this paper as one of the best on Stratospheric internal vacillation. This is something we have mentioned a lot in historic stratosphere threads but one that the community is still trying to understand.  Given the fact the paper is now 15 years old probably speaks to the complexity of where some dynamics of our old winter foe the Polar Vortex just remain elusive.. Enjoy https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/6/2008jcli2365.1.xml

     

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