lorenzo

Not often you see this type of anomaly lurking about Scandi... that's a decent signal.. here we go again !

Well hello there..

Urgh - something of a SNAW SHIELD here.. remaining optimistic though.. Don't think any of the models had this down really.. Expected decay by the time things had traversed the Central Belt, but it's a shame that initial pulse did not slam into West Coast and went South, the main pulse know looks right on track to reinforce those who are posting good pics already. Perhaps that red line can get organised and feed in across Central Belt during remainder of today. Hi res pic attached from world view too .

Plenty of stuff piling in on radar, pity that first band tracked further south - hopefully this other 'blob' makes up for it during today..

Amazing.. someone has made a Ceefax Imagine it's more accurate than the GFS too..

Meanwhile at some point in not too distant future, a belter of a hoolie This looks particularly nasty

First band pastes the West then decays as it transfers across the Central Belt.. NWrly drop SSE later in the evening ICON / GEM / EC / ARPEGE and by Friday - never mind weather - whole cities have relocated..

@Mair Snaw Name change to All The Snaw possibly needed !

Gritter , in the actual street vs main roads ! Fair play !

Some charts to follow on from Ross' post above.. ICON / EC / GFS / UKV - all have variation with timing and intensity of the low passing through, case of wait and see what it does tomorrow ! Adding in a pic from my folks in Aberdeenshire, a good covering there.

Zero snow here - still, out enjoying the cold air, definitely a night for watching a fire... and Aliens ( EasyJet Aliens). ( Nae Sna here ken, neen eva).

12z ICON..

Busy skies and loads of Lee Waves.

Can she play in midfield?

Incoming ! Looking forward to seeing some more pictures - hopefully that trough delivers something better than an ice rink covering Tuesday looking fun on Fax..

17th is cold peaking in places and the rest looking elsewhere This view is cool - it is - okay vortex what u got left view. This is Day 5 - Wednesday - somewhere is pasted already.. From there - there is not a lot to stop the Atlantic... .. there isn't an Atlantic >>

I guess Floorboard action aint what it used to be HC @Hairy Celt

Been on the Netweather Scottish Thread for one afternoon and this is what happens !!! Welcome to Scotland X

At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc. 2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools. Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster. The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned. And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario. Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5009276

At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc. 2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools. Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster. The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned. And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario. Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb.

I love April for these when the last throws of the arctic pile South in a potent Northerly and convection kicks things up. Hopefully loads to add to the photo album over the coming week. We do have the wishbone aspect which leaves loads of us bloody freezing with little or no reward, still - February looks like it may deliver from something from a more North Eastern quarter which may assuage that..

Pepperpot convection in the flow Pasting further South on this run PS - Cracking pics @Ravelin and to everyone else who keeps adding them got a folder full of Scotland at it's best this season - even if we haven't had all round snowmaggedon!

For Fax sake.. been such a long countdown this one, good to be into the shorter range stuff..

@Eagle Eye adding your post here too given the work undertaken and quality of content, this thread slightly more slow moving than the main Model Disco. Also given your keen insight, and mind miles beyond my own - recommend this paper as one of the best on Stratospheric internal vacillation. This is something we have mentioned a lot in historic stratosphere threads but one that the community is still trying to understand. Given the fact the paper is now 15 years old probably speaks to the complexity of where some dynamics of our old winter foe the Polar Vortex just remain elusive.. Enjoy https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/6/2008jcli2365.1.xml