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lorenzo

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Posts posted by lorenzo


  1. 4 minutes ago, AWD said:

    How can you possibly have 100% agreement on an evolution 264 hours away, especially in the current atmospheric volatility we are experiencing?

    I think in as much as the same way as the last 48 hours threw out solutions with 1 or 2 clusters, which then moved to 4,5 or 6 clusters as the NWP programmed in the various impacts of the US storm and resulting pattern on the Canadian Lobe of Vortex and Jet profiles. At this point in time this morning the output isn't seeing such entropy and has dialled in on something else... In retrospect it may be the case we look back on the disappointment of losing the initial quick route to cold charts as a bump in the road.

    As noted above, the encouragement arrives from this being the direction of travel and also has good synergy with with weekly forecasts EC has produced.


  2. What's that - 6 of them lined up at 60 hrs out..! that low sure is fond of the NE Coast line, churns away in there..

    image.thumb.png.1ae544d736ff98b657115224bab97290.pngimage.thumb.png.dc2972da264773e82703f16f50e13eac.pngimage.thumb.png.3743839b2821222bc9e289988a410d46.png

    Ciel wrt to down welling.. 'paint drip' expression of the slow progression of the NAM, from below u can see the obstacles since the SSW and the eventual connection to the trop. I think the initial arctic outbreak impacting Austria was programmed before / during SSW.

    image.thumb.png.333e63f4d4fb12ff24d039e3ded48ac2.png


  3. 12z GFS did this when it split the vortex filaments on the ridge > early it leaves residual energy in NE Canada, then a filament juices and attracts the long lead TPV segment from central europe, by 192 we are at an unusual situation...

    image.thumb.png.5dcf5d1734c904ed5e1ec48449301e9c.pngimage.thumb.png.7a545bcc1757e9cffbd9f36deaaa54d5.pngimage.thumb.png.a8666835297c38986504c914bec2366d.png

    Later the break plays through and flattens, before eventually leading to the 'all roads lead to cold'.. this follows the jet flattening at 192hrs

    image.thumb.png.9653d9e99d20063788054bb84956f93d.png

    Then the break..

    image.thumb.png.83ac6cdd9bf6de576f0aceb33942b179.png

    This first carve out of energy on the first image means so much for the play through of the run and speak to why the 0-5 day time frame creates the dynamic and time stamps going forward.


  4. 6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Nope, though what might be possible is there is a little too much pressure from the upper PV over Ne Canada which flattens the HP towards the UK, at least until we get some downwelling around the 28-30th of January. Indeed that is what the ECM control run is showing on the 12z ensembles. However it is certainly looking promising.

    Agree, when I say no flatter runs I mean in eventuality vs. 'They won't appear at all'... the jet will be juice via the TPV and various filaments ejecting via trough disruption -  for clarity this is not the case of the HP predication sloping off and slugging into Europe, there is a definitive wave guide that wants to dial in on Iberia, this when it first appeared advertised sliders.. it wants to repeat too.. in fact the theme of repetition is looking pretty extreme right now, JMA last night at the outer envelope of severity. Control is watch out for sure, however I think the drain of the NE vortex lobe will appreciate once it kicks off proper disruption.

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