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lorenzo

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lorenzo last won the day on October 23 2016

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About lorenzo

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    @scotlandwx
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    Scottish Weather & Regional Banter. Teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, Research Papers & Learning, Hurricanes, Atlantic Lows & Windstorms, Stratosphere Monitoring
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    Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies

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  1. Wee video of the snaw - and below that on Twitter a rather short and sweary synoptic outlook..
  2. Getting an utter pasting here! Bloody surreal this :)!
  3. LOL - U wait years for easterly regimes and three come along at once. IN MARCH
  4. Amused by this... perhaps following the Red Warned event, Meto think we are immune to Snaw.. granted it's a pretty covering today and nothing drastic - still when a blob hits it goes to white out and blizzard instantaneously which you could argue if driving merits the Snaw word being on the Scotland area, vs just Ice..
  5. Good blob action all morning, mini drifts in the back garden and everything has a solid covering. With the sun actually making an appearance today and obvs higher in sky than usual for a wintry scene such as today , everything sparkling and the snow seems brighter , almost blinding at points. Timehop on Social Media showing up 2013 action for the very same day 5 years ago - carbon copy of last SSW.
  6. Literally my second worst weather type today An easterly that delivers the slate grey of early schooling and little else other than boring wind chill. Happy tho that those that missed out daan saff have some fun and games to enjoy. Will see what awaits across the rest of the warnings over the weekend.. Worst weather type to add to opener is the dirty high - the classic anticylclonic gloom - blanket of Sc that bewilders sunlight and portends zero weather of interest until it slopes off - IMO worse than a bartlett! Anyhow that all aside - this easterly regime and down well is exceptional for this time of year, record breaking 850 hPa temps in the sat era, and delivers weight to the credence of SSWs delivering cold regimes for the NH, really salivating now as to where we are withing the solar cycle as I think this is a driving influence of SSWs and just how low the solar regime goes ahead of next winter. Almost an 09 position - but not yet. Echoes of 1962 NAO profiles add weight to these thoughts , Ant has been studiously examining them over the last couple of weeks given Winter is Over vs Nor Easter chats in the US. Upshot, don't think we are done with this until winter 2019... For summer CFS shows July temp anomalies predicated on consistent Arctic warming and if there is time will try and re analyse this vs Nino, which could just kick in with QBO to deliver some fun early doors next winter... interesting times given the atmosphere rebounding from such a monster SSW This alone in re-analysis will be a subject of much discussion - a given the lag between events, the QBO blip and the strength of the vortex dissipation this season with the red warning and lobe of vortex delivering -44 C 500hPa in March... will say that again... - 44C 500hPa in March.... Good fun this winter... and onwards to see what the real play in the solar minimum can deliver..
  7. State of play from the radar with some intensity slowly tracking up the east coast on a slight NNW steering. Fax mess... someone omitted the 528 Dam line.. Meto Chief forecaster assessment mentions that this band becomes slow moving, weakening later in the day. Now given that it mentions slow moving and also the programmed precip above - and that it seems the snow level is 100m or so lower than forecast - makes for some interesting viewing if the slow moving becomes a stall across the central belt.. Chief Forecaster's assessment A band of rain and hill snow is expected to push north across Scotland during the early part of Tuesday, becoming slow moving, before weakening through the day. 5-10 cm of snow is likely to accumulate over higher routes, such as the A9, above 200 m, with 10-15 cm possible on the highest routes above 400 m. Below 200 m rain is expected and 20-30 mm is possible along eastern coastal regions. This rain combined with snow melt may lead to some surface flooding of roads.
  8. Woah, busy day yesterday and missed the charts and warning saying rain. Certainly isn't rain, hammering down with snow and a very busy radar..
  9. Farewell Back to the grim stuff we go.. And, the Torville & Dean forecast tomorrow am.
  10. 850hPa temps good, 950hPa temps v marginal, it's a look outside and see, heavier bursts you would expect to see the white stuff although Euro 4 has mysteriously vanished it's ppn forecast for mid afternoon! Given these plots, suprised to see snow / snizzle at all today. Midnight sees the 528 d line clear well North.. Still the outer realms of la la land until the 0 degree 850hPa line encompasses Scotland via a bit of a Nwrly to watch out for circa 10th March.
  11. Steady snow on here again, happy days Attempted to build an igloo last night, kids got bored - I got cold and gave up. Might have another bash today if we get a decent recovering.. Radar looking busy and that band currently across Lancaster has some interest.. Here's the updated yellow warning to save you clicking about for it!
  12. A Hernia from digging surely @Ravelin, but piles.... interesting side effect
  13. Bang on Catch - given the strength of the warming and the sheer beauty of the split dynamics it has pretty much been a textbook transfer of the split from stratosphere to troposphere. Here first off to frame this is the seminal Baldwin and Dunkerton Paper on NAM dynamics - NAO/AO From this study you can see the impacts of the SSW elongated over time as the warming down wells and impacts on the troposphere( where our weather happens). Then, to this years episode - this tweet from Amy Butler tells the story that means we had the instant tropospheric response that the perfect split of the Polar Vortex can deliver... immediate ( well 7-12 days) of an instant down welling where the easterly anomalies impact the troposphere. In this case reversing circulation and the Siberian daughter vortex immediately evident at 10hPa echoed in troposhperic forecasts. We were at a point around 16th Feb when this could have gone tits up, but some cool wave breaking in the Atlantic severed the chances of the Siberian vortice joining forces again with the Canadian vortex, this serendipity meant the modelling continued to create a Grand Canyon, no Atlantic incursion could get thru, a brick wall if you like - picture it running from Penzance to Svalbard. This then allowed that earlier programmed Siberian vortex to shuffle round and usher in the easterly regime. Dr Butler's plot below shows the zonal wind and the Geopotential height anomaly impacting all the way down through the stratosphere to impact us locally. Without this further wave breaking and also the subsequent cleaning out of the Canadian Vortex we would not have had a) the Scandi High and then the retrograde action to Greenland blocking. It really has been a thing of beauty. What we saw at 10hPa back on say 08th Feb has in a text book manner down welled through the stratosphere after the SSW and manifested itself in this remarkable easterly. When the wave break to the canadian vortex getting annihalted happened i knew wwe were game on, ahead of that, on 04 Jan the MJO being in Phase 2-3 was a clue to the SSW itself taking place. The SSW then got further confirmation via the MJO entering phases 7/8 mid month breaking the Nina regime. And that's the science from 02 Jan MJO thru, MJO recycle, through SSW , thru vortex split thru wave breaking > Easterly and historic event... Helluva amount of jigsaw pieces to get to eventually a red warning and a cold pool of -42 C at 500hPa which I saw was on statistical analysis a 1/31000 yr event. Special times ! Edit - Appreciate this is a bit technical vs the F$%kloads of snow pics so if you are interested in how we got here then ping me a message and I can either point u to the threads about this or hopefully answer any questions. Waited for some years for an SSW and this one has delivered spectacularly - excuse my excitement - it's been a five year lag and it's an opportunity to investigate a lot of research written around the subject with of course the much improved modelling resources. Baby Steps science... @chionomaniac Ed , to save my typing again can you add to this summary- maybe confirm the precursor you saw and how it beat every agency hands down by 3 weeks
  14. Living room window... It faces West !!!!
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