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lorenzo last won the day on October 23 2016

lorenzo had the most liked content!

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About lorenzo

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    Scottish Weather & Regional Banter. Teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, Research Papers & Learning, Hurricanes, Atlantic Lows & Windstorms, Stratosphere Monitoring
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    Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies

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  1. Amber warranted I reckon, heavy foliage, not had a hoolie for a while.. public caught up in benign weather. System is juiced to the max via strong jet, bombing nicely on satellite. Sting jet potential in this one too. Time for shipping forecast :) stay safe if travelling
  2. @Northernlights i genuinely wish I could say anything of comfort, this is genuinely off the grid as far as normal weather regimes are concerned. I like to think of Scotland's most well know singularity ( so named after Buchan singularties ) as being in May. in 70% of years, this singularity repeats, an HP cell between 15th and 29th May each year. Except this year it maintained! Incredible synoptics and HP in the offing to re-establish after this week, that plus atlantic SSTa and Solar Min. Watch out for Sea Ice stories over the next few months too..
  3. lorenzo

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2018

    Guilty as charged re twitter. Amazing sight last night, love hunting for these. Not seen such a wide display before where most of northern horizon covered in blanket of NLC.
  4. Exciting day ahead - especially with things kicking off so early. Towers going up very quickly looking at the sat loop. Really humid here and muggy, cloud barely moving - so anything that kicks off is going to be very slow moving. Somewhere will get a spectacular show today. https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual Link for sferics https://lmaps.org/#-3.23;55.9 Nearest turning point I could find was for Falkirk West. http://rasp.stratus.org.uk/app/blipbytp.php 1300J/Kg is impressive.
  5. Wee video of the snaw - and below that on Twitter a rather short and sweary synoptic outlook..
  6. Getting an utter pasting here! Bloody surreal this :)!
  7. LOL - U wait years for easterly regimes and three come along at once. IN MARCH
  8. Amused by this... perhaps following the Red Warned event, Meto think we are immune to Snaw.. granted it's a pretty covering today and nothing drastic - still when a blob hits it goes to white out and blizzard instantaneously which you could argue if driving merits the Snaw word being on the Scotland area, vs just Ice..
  9. Good blob action all morning, mini drifts in the back garden and everything has a solid covering. With the sun actually making an appearance today and obvs higher in sky than usual for a wintry scene such as today , everything sparkling and the snow seems brighter , almost blinding at points. Timehop on Social Media showing up 2013 action for the very same day 5 years ago - carbon copy of last SSW.
  10. Literally my second worst weather type today An easterly that delivers the slate grey of early schooling and little else other than boring wind chill. Happy tho that those that missed out daan saff have some fun and games to enjoy. Will see what awaits across the rest of the warnings over the weekend.. Worst weather type to add to opener is the dirty high - the classic anticylclonic gloom - blanket of Sc that bewilders sunlight and portends zero weather of interest until it slopes off - IMO worse than a bartlett! Anyhow that all aside - this easterly regime and down well is exceptional for this time of year, record breaking 850 hPa temps in the sat era, and delivers weight to the credence of SSWs delivering cold regimes for the NH, really salivating now as to where we are withing the solar cycle as I think this is a driving influence of SSWs and just how low the solar regime goes ahead of next winter. Almost an 09 position - but not yet. Echoes of 1962 NAO profiles add weight to these thoughts , Ant has been studiously examining them over the last couple of weeks given Winter is Over vs Nor Easter chats in the US. Upshot, don't think we are done with this until winter 2019... For summer CFS shows July temp anomalies predicated on consistent Arctic warming and if there is time will try and re analyse this vs Nino, which could just kick in with QBO to deliver some fun early doors next winter... interesting times given the atmosphere rebounding from such a monster SSW This alone in re-analysis will be a subject of much discussion - a given the lag between events, the QBO blip and the strength of the vortex dissipation this season with the red warning and lobe of vortex delivering -44 C 500hPa in March... will say that again... - 44C 500hPa in March.... Good fun this winter... and onwards to see what the real play in the solar minimum can deliver..
  11. State of play from the radar with some intensity slowly tracking up the east coast on a slight NNW steering. Fax mess... someone omitted the 528 Dam line.. Meto Chief forecaster assessment mentions that this band becomes slow moving, weakening later in the day. Now given that it mentions slow moving and also the programmed precip above - and that it seems the snow level is 100m or so lower than forecast - makes for some interesting viewing if the slow moving becomes a stall across the central belt.. Chief Forecaster's assessment A band of rain and hill snow is expected to push north across Scotland during the early part of Tuesday, becoming slow moving, before weakening through the day. 5-10 cm of snow is likely to accumulate over higher routes, such as the A9, above 200 m, with 10-15 cm possible on the highest routes above 400 m. Below 200 m rain is expected and 20-30 mm is possible along eastern coastal regions. This rain combined with snow melt may lead to some surface flooding of roads.
  12. Woah, busy day yesterday and missed the charts and warning saying rain. Certainly isn't rain, hammering down with snow and a very busy radar..
  13. Farewell Back to the grim stuff we go.. And, the Torville & Dean forecast tomorrow am.
  14. 850hPa temps good, 950hPa temps v marginal, it's a look outside and see, heavier bursts you would expect to see the white stuff although Euro 4 has mysteriously vanished it's ppn forecast for mid afternoon! Given these plots, suprised to see snow / snizzle at all today. Midnight sees the 528 d line clear well North.. Still the outer realms of la la land until the 0 degree 850hPa line encompasses Scotland via a bit of a Nwrly to watch out for circa 10th March.