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lorenzo

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lorenzo last won the day on October 23 2016

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About lorenzo

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    @scotlandwx
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    Scottish Weather & Regional Banter. Teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, Research Papers & Learning, Hurricanes, Atlantic Lows & Windstorms, Stratosphere Monitoring
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    Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies

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  1. Some quality anticyclonic wave breaking on view on this run, that vortex filament gets dragged deep into the heart of Europe... Always do love the 12z more than the 00z
  2. Roughly a 50/50 spilt on the ENS for pressure rises over Greenland.. Trend all but vanished over recent days, however firmly back in the mix now... 15 and 17 are the wild ones if you are hunting for progressive evolutions.
  3. SSW Down welling will over ride the MJO signal the resurgence of the upper level westerly regime will flush down the 'burrowing easterlies' referred to in Scaife Meto vids Simply put this SSW is new - its a monster displacement - so strong - its split the vortex - no long range model saw this. The physics meant it went strong into canada, then strong into siberia - it literally has been sheared QBO is irrelevant now - this is important as upper strat advertises differing regime from lower the split means the trop is influential - and the trop players arrive from the tropics - the nino base state and the mjo transition Where we are .. the dilution of the IO development for the MJO today after the coupling of the lower TSV over the pacific means the MJO can move again - its sessions stalled in COD - we can see more modes ahead... It's going to cycle with AAM into phase 5 .. EC week 5 regresses these.. and we have the winter lock
  4. It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, NW SE sliders will be the key feature of the next 6 weeks as the canadian vortex drains itself via downwelling. No it's not 62 or 47 or 2010 But what it actually is an SSW which we all now respect and have learned from, and have the nuance to watch in real time, spilling its arctic cold guts all over the mid latitudes. I am sorry for those of you who think , nope this is not a driver, nope AAM isnt a driver, MJO isnt a driver, Nino - isnt a driver - you get me? Simply put - they are - and always will be and GWO and AAM possibly the most reliable of the lot! Do not discourage in weather that which you have yet to understand - this science is difficult, no one is ever right, no one is ever perfect, no one on here alludes to that What I want to say is- for us afficiandos of cold, us dedicated individuals, hunting, searching, wanting looking and dissecting everything. We are all good Its near solar min, monster SSW, monster Split. NWP - Bring IT !
  5. 70hPa caught my eye on this plot too, vs the callout on the trop led activity. Per above 87 redux - neat slicer work with GP - the Glosea sneak preview via you tube live stream mirrors protracted impacts, some trop fortuity could lead to something special and lasting. Just now the killer question appears to be just how much energy remains on the Canadian segment, and subsequent to that given the wave breaking activity in the Atlantic, just how much this pulls the plug out of the sink and helps energy drain from that daughter vortice. The wave guide creates a neat path for dissipation with a filament from the Siberian vortex acting as a magnet dragging the jet on that classic NW-Se trajectory. Looking at NWP and in close up mode - CMC looks to be progressive with u re-establishing at 60N 10hPa vs the other models and perhaps is a little quick with the 'best in class solutions' given they support a quicker 'flush down' analogy. GEFS and ergo GFS in a very different tropical position too vs rest of suite for what lies ahead, perhaps demonstrating the predication to push eastward - plus bias, although FV3 seems to have plenty of attention in correcting this classic deficit. Looking at the MJO plots in the order of CMC > EC > JMA and then comparing to GEFS / GEFSBC shows the difference in the exit from the -1SD COD. Given all that commentary, it's really difficult to roadmap right now i think in all honesty, the only certainty I see is the elongated 'dripping paint' as evidence in Polar Cap anoms etc. When this comes to trop fruition precisely v difficult to plot other than a mean starter pistol c 20-22 Jan. It's a case of watch and enjoy I think !
  6. Latest from CPC on the MJO... Safe to say A LOT going on in the Pacific !!
  7. Everyone wants 2009 or 2010 again - simple fact is those where 1/100 years winters. I suspect if you came back in 30 days time this post wouldn't ring true.
  8. Always defer to minds greater than my own.. good rebuttal on twitter re saying i used the term VP 'Anomalies' incorrectly - challenged as these are not anomalies, but looking like canonical phase 1 by week 2. What I was trying to highlight was the shredded nature of the blocking in week 2 so apologies if misconstrued.. Dangers of looking at lagged impacts at same time as actual OLR.
  9. Strat top down out to 120 on tonight 12z.. downwelling continues from the displacement and split - up above the 10hPa 'nuked' layer looks like this From the above still tons of transfer happening in the UTLS region which will challenge blocking and ridging - this slowly seems to be lifting out or dissapating from the 'mobile' side of the hemisphere as each run arrives, in a similar fashion to W2 appreciating on Berlin. Little bit of a trend, but still how much energy is left in the NE Canada Greenland sector is of note, filaments of vortex have proven problematic before and can really throw the anticipated jet pattern awry, no matter what the split flow energy upstream may be. The 12z is only 120 hrs on GEOS unfortunately so 00z worth the old 00z to 00z check for a change mechanism, damn shame as at present it seems to be a case of what the 12z progresses with the 00z dials back on, from model watching this seems to have always been the case ( regardless of ECM / GFSdebate).. then, when something is truly afoot the 18z GFS follows the pied piper 12z ECM.. Looking at MJO ... Really useful to see the Cassou analogs today, however... given the vortex segment dialling in to turbo charge the NPAC jet am unsure what we can glean from 'normal' lagged teleconnections here. Wk 2 above will take a mind greater than mine to decipher, the traditional eastward moving block shredded. Perhaps negative MT and relaxation of the pattern to allow meridional Rossby waves to kick in.. too early to tell. Roundy posted a good plot showing the jet extension shove stuff south of the equator, is this a sign of us having surpassed peak zonal injection of oomph into proceedings. If so, can it build into circa 20th, slower moving NH wavelength and be another factor for blockiness.. One thing is for sure, watching an SSW in slow motion vs the dynamical retrospectives provided e.g. http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/SSW-animations/anim-PV/1979_530K/loop.html is gruelling work... we are gonna be damn unlucky NOT to get something signature out of this event that's for sure...
  10. Strat top down out to 120 on tonight 12z.. downwelling continues from the displacement and split - up above the 10hPa 'nuked' layer looks like this From the above still tons of transfer happening in the UTLS region which will challenge blocking and ridging - this slowly seems to be lifting out or dissapating from the 'mobile' side of the hemisphere as each run arrives, in a similar fashion to W2 appreciating on Berlin. Little bit of a trend, but still how much energy is left in the NE Canada Greenland sector is of note, filaments of vortex have proven problematic before and can really throw the anticipated jet pattern awry, no matter what the split flow energy upstream may be. The 12z is only 120 hrs on GEOS unfortunately so 00z worth the old 00z to 00z check for a change mechanism, damn shame as at present it seems to be a case of what the 12z progresses with the 00z dials back on, from model watching this seems to have always been the case ( regardless of ECM / GFS debate).. then, when something is truly afoot the 18z GFS follows the pied piper 12z ECM.. Looking at MJO ... Really useful to see the Cassou analogs today, however... given the vortex segment dialling in to turbo charge the NPAC jet am unsure what we can glean from 'normal' lagged teleconnections here. Wk 2 above will take a mind greater than mine to decipher, the traditional eastward moving block shredded. Perhaps negative MT and relaxation of the pattern to allow meridional Rossby waves to kick in.. too early to tell. Roundy posted a good plot showing the jet extension shove stuff south of the equator, is this a sign of us having surpassed peak zonal injection of oomph into proceedings. If so, can it build into circa 20th, slower moving NH wavelength and be another factor for blockiness.. One thing is for sure, watching an SSW in slow motion vs the dynamical retrospectives provided e.g. http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/SSW-animations/anim-PV/1979_530K/loop.html is gruelling work... we are gonna be damn unlucky NOT to get something signature out of this event that's for sure...
  11. NH Vortex profile beginning to look a little bedraggled...
  12. Check the strat thread on here - several international contributors. in fact the latest post this morning includes a review of the 2018 event from the Netherlands.
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