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lorenzo

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lorenzo last won the day on October 23 2016

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About lorenzo

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  • Gender
    Male
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    @scotlandwx
  • Interests
    Scottish Weather & Regional Banter. Teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, Research Papers & Learning, Hurricanes, Atlantic Lows & Windstorms, Stratosphere Monitoring
  • Weather Preferences
    Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies

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  1. WRF/NMM view of tomorrow.. Arpege still rolling out the 06z and Euro 4 to follow. Arpege
  2. Excellent - photo two enlarged is like Interstellar!!
  3. I have seen enough of this geomag activity now to be confident there is a mode which modifies Hadley Cells, I do not think we have the science - and in particular mesosphere obs to create a teleconnection. It is there and one for the future.. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full
  4. I think the Feb 2017 one would not be classed as SSW of any note really, regardless of the technicality, one feels that we are due a significant episode..
  5. Re - the why do we like snow thing. I reckon it's because it's one of the only things in life that transcends ageing and retains 'wonder', whereas nearly everything else in life becomes the 'normal' or you become hardened to it. Snow also I think connects back to childhood and all the associations with winter and fun times / memories - hence making memories when you can with the kids and getting them out in the snow to pay it all forward for them. Or, just because we are weather loving, chart chasing, radar reviewing winter geeks.
  6. Hi, discussion is fine, however we need different view points to discuss rather than ' am not having that.. !'. Please present a counter point next time. Ta !
  7. Satellite still looking decent, upgraded from the usual 'blob' to a 'clump'.. Leading edge on it's way Sunday definitely one to watch too!
  8. It's gone dark here all of a sudden. About to get malkied with snaw !
  9. Progress update on the Kinky Thing... Snow filter on Eumetsat totally loaded...http://eumetview.eumetsat.int/mapviewer/
  10. This blob is looking properly decent... WOMP!
  11. Wee covering overnight - and a day wfh watching radar ahead. Missed the Amber warning by a bawhair.. hopefully the flow as enogh oomph to punch through to here and can take the kids sledging again !
  12. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-01-18 Full methodology here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/severe-weather-advice
  13. The shape of this lower strat ridge tells a story on trop modelling I think, http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=a12&lng=eng Look through the angle of attack shown from lower to mid strat. Huge dynamics in play with the shifting trop vortex and lower strat vortex peaking on W2 activity today, if solutions are subject to entropy just now it is because we have not seen the play through of the vortex drain happening now, the W2 split happening now and subsequent trop modelling will be errant. It's an amazing watch - the vortex subject to W1 influence following echoes of Canadian Warming regime a la the early 80s into W2 dynamics - follow all that... then. We have start of Jan AAM changes in the tropics, a solid week of MJO activity which lends itself to strat wave driving at c 30 35 days. This then, dovetailing with the passage of further AAM increases, thru the MT phases back to MJO 7/8 for FEb our blockier regimes. In between we have the Scandi high artefact from canonical AAM phases - aligning with the strat split, not with standing the p5 cassou mid atlantic ridge - which, can be seen as an juiced azores, or the amped ECM from time to time. I hope the Garfinket study verifies, we see true downwelling c 28th jan, this adds to the W1 on strat, then W2 peak today to degrade the very cold, and seemingly very robust vortex, followed by the MJO blockier regimes aiding a good solution... Meanwhile back to see where this amber warning goes and how deep ffffifi, ffffeynoord, ffffrredie or ffyon goes..
  14. Good news @Starsail radar reporting sleet for you so indicative of mair SNAW than expected Edit - am talking pish! Had it on PPN intensity vs type.. All good nonetheless!
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