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lorenzo last won the day on October 23 2016

lorenzo had the most liked content!

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About lorenzo

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    Scottish Weather & Regional Banter. Teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, Research Papers & Learning, Hurricanes, Atlantic Lows & Windstorms, Stratosphere Monitoring
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    Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies

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  1. 'THAT GFS' ( well until the 18z appears after a bottle of Russian Standard) is as pornographic as an Op run gets and fitting for the Hunt for Cold thread. If that verified then it would end up a Hunt to escape the cold or dig yourself out thread... remarkable, and across the ENS a fair few attempting something similar within a decent ensemble mean. It's as exciting as it gets for model watching both in trop and further up. Long live the Scandi Block causing the carnage.. .
  2. Good point ! I was hoping to illustrate how what's happening now in trop in terms of a strong block isn't exactly the same situation at 10 hPa. When as you say what is happening now moves the strat vortex around. Could do with some defining!
  3. As bits and pieces are discussing strat trop disconnect. This view helps show the massive difference between trop vortex and strat vortex, it also provides hypnotic animation of wave breaks if you like that. The developing rock in the tropospheric pond of the Scandi block is clear to see and way above in white the start vortex churns away. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/dt_500/DT_500.php Heights Temp Forthcoming EAMT looks like more fun ahead in the trop..
  4. Cool - got you Andrej - will incorporate that next time when I get plotting.. Given the mass of colour plots on Panoply I just picked one that looked cool. So what you see on the images above doesn't have a true zero point reference and may eschew rhe anomalies. Will hopefully work up as time allows.. As an aside do u know when Copernicus seasonal anomalies update each month, I know the season is out for ecm - just wondered if there is a date each month the seasonal pressure level data is released. would be good to see the strat lead from those..
  5. Good discussion developing here and given the Strat Trop telling different stories - really is a new year in terms of meaningful analogs. Short Version of post - Some H5 and 10 hPa projections based on existing 'known' stuff. QBO swtiches at this point of the season it would seem throw the rule book out the window. In terms of QBO data we have the top of the strat rampantly westerly, the 30hPa level just seeing that Westerly impact pull through and below this nearer the trop a strong Easterly regime continues. Courtesy of some help from @Interitus patiently guiding me through the IT stuff for Panoply, went building some plots. The usual view of composites or analogs built on ESRL can be exported NCDF and plugged into the Panoply machine and hey presto - you get some charts that are in short a hell of a lot prettier to look at. Attached below are H500 based on some loose parameters from 1979 to date ( start point for strat data). The method in the madness is considering Ant Mas post around 800m waves and their further inflection down the road as winter progresses, using that as a base added in Solar activity being very low, the projected MJO phases from GP above and a really loose positve ENSO filter, it looks like within the thermocline that it might come on like a train but still we shall see. Specifics annotated on the charts. As a result you get this for the 2nd and 3rd periods in November and then using the ( add days function on ESRL) a rough picture of direction of travel. So, in essence some composites for remainder of November, central date being 20th, then a future view with a central date of 10th Dec. This is predicated on the W1 activity exceeding 800m - if it doesn't then null and void - rest of parameters am okay with. In terms of Vortex Intensification and it's cycle of moving from developing > onset> mature then declining. I need to dig out the paper that shows this on a temporal basis ( lost a hard drive). If VI period is in earnest then any potential signature Strat event I see as kicked down the road until Jan. Meanwhile the easterly regime in the trop would lead to tropics nuances creating fun until that time. Any thoughts welcome on methodology given this is now set up to plot cool stuff...
  6. I don't think the CFS should ever be allowed to breed..
  7. Original publication attached.. Team furtado for me , Cohen drives me mad. [email protected]
  8. Nice one @Interitus good detective work.. some great stuff on those links - the Ellipse plots page is really good, in particular as you can move easily up and down the layers of the vortex as it moves through the model run. Where some of the levels are robust, you get a sense of vortex size and also the chaos at other levels. Neat rendering here to ID the vortices with the dots..
  9. Another resource arriving online soon for the winter ahead..
  10. @feb1991blizzard I think that's spot on will re check it only pertains to actual ERA40 SSW dates. @Recretos knew you would have something cooler ! Look forward to the updated one. And, @Interitus, thank you for the nudge around Panoply and help with getting it up and running , really cool resource. Lost myself for about an hour with just map parameters and colour scales. Would encourage others with a bit of time to give it a blast
  11. Thanks @Interitus great shout re: Panoply - now for IT puzzles to get it to work - admittedly am about as impatient and as crap with this stuff as I am with excel.. especially when it serves up random error messages. Speaking of excel - here are a couple of plots of all SSWs - first plot shows the dates demarcated by the red dots, then SunSpot activity / QBO regime and ENSO regime. Second one is SSW via SSN scatter alone - limited pattern there with outliers. Both give a view of all the SSW activity from Butler's table in visual format.. will leave the conclusions to everyone else !
  12. Amber warranted I reckon, heavy foliage, not had a hoolie for a while.. public caught up in benign weather. System is juiced to the max via strong jet, bombing nicely on satellite. Sting jet potential in this one too. Time for shipping forecast :) stay safe if travelling
  13. @Northernlights i genuinely wish I could say anything of comfort, this is genuinely off the grid as far as normal weather regimes are concerned. I like to think of Scotland's most well know singularity ( so named after Buchan singularties ) as being in May. in 70% of years, this singularity repeats, an HP cell between 15th and 29th May each year. Except this year it maintained! Incredible synoptics and HP in the offing to re-establish after this week, that plus atlantic SSTa and Solar Min. Watch out for Sea Ice stories over the next few months too..
  14. lorenzo

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2018

    Guilty as charged re twitter. Amazing sight last night, love hunting for these. Not seen such a wide display before where most of northern horizon covered in blanket of NLC.
  15. Exciting day ahead - especially with things kicking off so early. Towers going up very quickly looking at the sat loop. Really humid here and muggy, cloud barely moving - so anything that kicks off is going to be very slow moving. Somewhere will get a spectacular show today. https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual Link for sferics https://lmaps.org/#-3.23;55.9 Nearest turning point I could find was for Falkirk West. http://rasp.stratus.org.uk/app/blipbytp.php 1300J/Kg is impressive.