BA Baracus

First snow starting to appear in the North sea on radar.

Yep. Amber warnings are the kiss of death for snow chances! The number of times amber warnings for snow in my area have been wrong far outweigh those that have been correct. Whatever happens is a bonus as I assumed the snow last week would be the end of winter!

To be taken with a pinch of salt but met office app for me now going for heavy snow from 11pm tonight to 3am tomorrow. Thereafter light snow all the way through to Sunday. Not bad for mid-march!

For the sake of £50 I would book into a hotel on Friday evening at or near the airport. There is no guarantee of any snow but the m62 is an extremely delicate piece of infrastructure which can go t*ts up at any point. It all depends on how much you value piece of mind... the forecast does suggest Saturday early hours is highly likely to see snow. The latest HIRLAM illustrates this well with a line of heavy snow down the pennines straddling the m62.

Heavy snow is increasingly likely early Saturday morning and then potentially snow showers continuing during daylight hours. I'm not sure on the threshold for closing runways (ie depth of snow) but as LBA is on the top of a hill I would imagine it will close at some point, even if that is just to allow for runway clearance. If it were me I'd try to get to Heathrow on Friday evening. The powdery snow with very cold uppers can lead to issues with electric trains (powdery snow gets into the vents and causes issues inside the locomotive) so wouldn't rely on the train either.

Heavy snow is possible early on Saturday. Cracking end to winter! HIRLAM top image 3am sat and ICON lower image sat midnight. Looks like midnight to 6am is the time of interest.

Could be an interesting commute on Friday evening as a rain to snow event is possible, as shown on the attached images. As ever, nothing guaranteed at this range but could there be another m62 closure event as people get caught unawares?!

Looking on the radar the snow is pivoting and twisting back South and East. Could more heavy snow sweep back across the affected areas?

All Kirklees roads are blocked with snow, stuck buses, crashes etc. Chaos! The snow is perfect for making some huge snowmen.

Over 2 inches here and still coming down heavily with large flakes. It will all melt today but it's a great little treat to wake up to! More rush hour chaos no doubt....

The latest HIRLAM is interesting again for two reasons: the immense snowfall rates expected over SE Ireland in later timeframes but also the progression further North into our region ever so slightly (image attached for a random evening hour). The system is further east than forecast and I think that will bode well for us as it swings NW later tonight.

Not quite reached me yet. Sky is getting darker though.

Creeping northwards... not a bad shout this morning by myself we could have snow this afternoon..! The snow from Emma is further east than expected, no idea if that's a good or bad thing for our region. Back to radar watching....

Definitely creeping North slowly into Sheffield. I read somewhere that a lot of the lighter snow echoes on the radar are due to lying snow blowing around. Could be the reason it looks like snow here but nothing falling.... Lots blowing around though!

Went for a walk at lunch. Level ground about 6 inches. Drifts over the top of my wellies. Great stuff!

Yes, I have a feeling it's for what has already gone. Similarly the Amber over Lincolnshire yesterday only appeared at the backend of the event. Too much reliance on computers and not enough actual observations/forecaster input I would imagine.

APERGE has the same pennine snow too. I'm baffled as to what it is expecting.

Yes, it was only updated 10mins ago too and extended overnight into Friday morning. They must be expecting something. Interestingly the HIRLAM does show a string of snow down the pennies for most of the day. Example attached from a random timeframe.

They should post diagrams with reasons why they issue the warnings. The chief forecaster text is usually just dribble.

There's still yellow warnings to Saturday for whole region?

Added the text below. Says they are expecting a further 5-10 cm with up to 25cm more. Can't see where from unless they are expecting showers or the front to invigorate over the hills.

Into west Yorkshire too... not sure why?

I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest the front will reach at least the South of the region this afternoon. This is based purely on the radar movement currently displayed.

Yes, what's interesting is that Chris Fawkes on twitter suggests it arrived much earlier and much further east than expected. He then expects it to move North and West. Trouble is no one knows how far North!

Is the front expected to pivot northwards into our region or get stuck across Midlands and move westward with "Emma"?