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firefly

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    Snow on the Scottish Mountains.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Keen observers on here will have noticed how little snow fell over the winter months on the hills of the UK. Though there remains a reasonable level of cover on hills above 3000 ft (914m), the general consensus is that there's far less than usual. The probability level that all snow will vanish in the Highlands this autumn (summer?) is higher than it's been for quite a few years. Polar Maritime is doing a fine job in keeping everyone updated!

    • Like 3

    Snow on the Scottish Mountains.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by firefly

    I agree with some of what the last two posters have written. Warm conditions in the latter half of the year do play a large part in determining how many patches of snow will persist, but this is not the only - or main - reason. In that regard I disagree with iapennel that 2003 and 2006's summers 'led to' the disappearance of all snow.

    The biggest factor, in my view, is how much snow falls in winter. For example, 2014's summer was warm and long, with frequent long spells of sunny weather. And, yet, 2014 saw an unusual amount of patches surviving (twenty one). This was because the volume of snow that fell during the previous winter was huge. It stands to reason that the more snow you have, the longer it takes to melt. In the years 2003 and 2006, which iapennel rightly states as having unusually mild summers, far less snow fell in winter than in a normal year. This led to the heat of summer depleting the snow very quickly.

    I am not a meteorologist, so cannot comment on what is likely to happen with the weather. However, as it stands at present I can say with some certainty that 2016 is not going to be a vintage year for snow patches! As for the amount of patches that will persist, that - again - is very hard to call. It's much too early to say. I'd be very surprised if at least a few didn't make it, but with the Scottish climate anything can (and does) happen.

    • Like 2

    Snow on the Scottish Mountains.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On ‎04‎/‎05‎/‎2016 at 09:03, Polar Maritime said:

    Nice to see you call in Iain, Hopefully we will hear updates through the Summer on how the snow patches are surviving this year. What are your 'expectations' as things stand?

    It looks to be reasonably average, with perhaps a bit more than 'usual' on some aspects. If we have a typical summer then I'd expect patches of snow to survive once again, but there's obviously still a long way to go. I'd be astonished if we eclipsed 2015!

    • Like 1

    Snow on the Scottish Mountains.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It is my view that the current level of snow being held on the hills of the Highlands is slightly better than average, though not massively. The very cool April has meant that many places (Cairngorms etc) are seeing their deepest snow accumulations of the winter.

    I have read comments that 30m+ drifts are to be found on Ben Nevis, but there is no evidence of this. I'm reasonably confident that Observatory Gully of Ben Nevis holds the deepest snow in the UK at present, though I'd be surprised if this exceeded 20 metres.

    • Like 2

    Snow On The Scottish Mountains 2015.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Had a little look myself for the past few years:

     

    2014/15 - 21

    2013/14 - 6

    2012-13 - 6

    2011-12 - 2

    2010-11 - 6

    2009-10 - 6

    2008-9 - 12

     

    So, by my very rough estimate and all things being equal, we could be set for about 50 survivors to next winter.

     

    Staggering to think that about 90% of patches at the end of August wont survive to winter when we are perhaps only 12 weeks away from lasting snows.

    I'm not sure there'll be 50 survivors, but there'll certainly be a sair few. Almost certainly more thank last year, assuming g the rest of the year is 'normal.
    • Like 2

    Snow On The Scottish Mountains 2015.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I do believe there is aprox a 2 week spell that has never seen snow in the highlands,i forgot where the details are,does anyone know if ths snow/potential snow is in that period?

     

    Not quite. The longest spells that snow has never been known to fall is seven days: both of which in August (7-13th and 21-27th). August is the least snowy month in the UK. The total number of days (since 1943) in August where we have not seen snow in any year is 19.

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    Snow On The Scottish Mountains 2015.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good evening one and all! It's been too long since I posted on here, but I can see that there are some stalwarts manning the battlements to keep you appraised of goings-on.

     

    It's been quite a year for snow in Scotland. At least, on the mountains it has. Winter brought a lot of snow to the hills generally, but not an exceptional amount. It largely blew in from the south-west, which is always good news. What has marked 2015 out, though (and this hardly needs to be said) is the fact that it's been extraordinarily cool on the hills since April. 

     

    May was remarkably cold, with Lochaber and Glen Coe fully 3 degrees below the mean maximum temperature. June was little better. In fact, we saw an unusual amount of days of snow falling in June. (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th, 13th and 14th June). Obviously the cool temperatures preserve the existing snow. Remarkably, snow fell yesterday on the summit of Ben Nevis! Astonishing, given the time of year. 

     

    As we approach August, masses of snow still remain on the hills all over the Highlands. From as far south as Beinn Ime (beside Loch Lomond) we are seeing snow persist in places where it doesn't normally. Admittedly much of this will disappear in the next couple of months, but I believe we're on track to see survivals not seen since 2000 and 1994. 

     

    To demonstrate, the photograph immediately below is from the 2nd July this year. Compare it to what we thought was a snowy year, 2008. P

     

    19396861750_be9e87336a_m.jpgAonach Beag July Snow by Free.heel, on Flickr (2nd July 2015)

     

    2636646143_fdbb7a0ffe_m.jpg700ft Vertical Descent - Aonach Beag by Iain Cameron, on Flickr (4th July 2008)

     

    I'm organising a snow survey on the 21st and 22nd (see here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2lo28j3av310cwr/august%20snow%20survey%20poster.docx?dl=0). If anyone fancies visiting a hill (Beinn Mhanach near Bridge of Orchy, especially) then please make yourself known!

     

    Also, there's a group on FB if you'd like to join: https://www.facebook.com/groups/snowpatchesscotland/

    • Like 10

    Snow on the Scottish mountains - 2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Greetings, folks. 

     

    You'll need to forgive the lack of input on this thread by me this year. I've been busy with plenty of stuff, and I've neglected some of the things I'd rather not have. This being one!

     

    As has been mentioned, there's a snow survey happening on 22-23 August. We're going to try and cover every hill in Scotland still likely to be holding snow. Of course, it's going to be difficult this year by dint of the fact that there's still a huge amount of it in places that don't normally hold any at this time of the year. For example, Carn na Caim, a modest-sized hill easily visible from the A9 at Dalwhinnie, still has a very deep patch on a NW aspect (see attached image).

     

    Video of Carn na Caim from my new toy... 

     

    The Ben Nevis range of hills is still holding a massive amount of snow (see attached image). I fully expect there to be multiple survivals there this year, but as always it's a case of keeping an eye out. post-7268-0-71984300-1408358886_thumb.jp

     

    I'll update the forum when the August survey is done, complete with a bit more flesh on the bones than I've put here.

     

     

    post-7268-0-54510200-1408358871_thumb.jp

    Remarkable lack of snow for parts of the UK this season.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by firefly

    If there did occur a day of lying snow in summer, which winter season would it be credited to? June I expect the previous one, and.August the following, but July??

     

    It’s a question I’ve often pondered.

     

    The mid-way point between the solstice and the equinox is the 6th August (based on 92 days between the 21st June and 21st September). It seems to me that it would be sensible to have a date where the 'old' season ends and the 'new' one starts. 

    On the hills of Scotland, since 1944 we have seen fresh snow in 12 Julys and 11 Augusts. The total number of days when we have seen no snow in July is 12, and 19 in August. The longest run of dates in either of these months without snow ever being known is 7-13th August and 21-27th August. It seems to me, therefore, that any snow before the 7th August could be classified as old season, and any that falls after the 13th is 'new'. Any snow that falls in this period (thus breaking a 70 year trend!) would have to be decided on an individual basis, I fancy. 

    • Like 1

    Snow on the Scottish mountains - 2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by firefly

    Though scarcely believable to most in south (given the mild and snowless winter at low level), there remains a mind-boggling quantity of snow on some of the mountains in Scotland.

     

    Winter was characterised by a very distinct 'split' in terms of the snowline. Whilst there was very little below 2000ft, much of what fell above this during the whole of January and February was wintry in nature. Bear in mind the big Atlantic storms that battered the country, and the associated amounts of precipitation they deposited. The upshot is that record volumes of snow fell on the high hills of Glen Coe and Lochaber, as well as the hills around the Glen Shee ski centre.

     

    Moreover, the direction of these storms (mostly westerly, south-westerly and southerly) was very favourable for the usual east and NE-facing long-lying snow locations. These locations, sheltered to a significant degree from the summer sun and SW 'hairdryer' winds, generally hold snow longest. With that in mind, I predict that locations which do not normally survive long into the summer will last until at least autumn (September 22 onward). This assumes the summer being 'average'!

     

    For example, this photograph shows the amount of snow present at Meall a' Bhuiridh at Glencoe ski area at present. This photograph, from a few years ago and a month earlier, shows how it looks 'normally' during winter. As you can see, almost unrecognisable. I would imagine that this story is repeated amongst many western hills, but we will see how summer progresses.

     

    It's worth mentioning that some of the lower hills in the Borders also did well. A few above 700 metres managed to catch a lot of the snow that fell. I went for a jaunt up Broad Law on Saturday past, and despite the apparent lack of snow on other aspects, NE facing ones above 700m still carry large wreaths. This photograph of me shows the hugely impressive cornice (complete with crevasses!) still on Polwood Craig, here: http://streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?X=315171&Y=624147&A=Y&Z=115

     

    All contributions welcome!

    Snow on the Scottish mountains - 2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Do you think summer skiing would be possible Firefly given the amount of snow? I assume a bumper year for snow patches is a distinct possibility?

    Almost certainly yes to both those questions. I'd expect to see summer skiing at Glencoe and Cairngorm. Nevis a bit more tricky to predict. However, I expect to see patches survive at places not seen since 2001. Vintage year, as you say.

    Snow on the Scottish mountains - 2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, an astonishing amount of snow on the hills of the Highlands. Depths are now getting on for 1994 levels in places, and there's no sign of things changing in the short to medium term. Incredible to think that we're only just into the second week in February, with potentially another 6-8 weeks of accumulation to come. The snow patch season in Scotland this year is going to be vintage! Of that there is little doubt.

     

    A cracking picture of the Creag Meagaidh range of hills near Fort William. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T7qrvaQ7NCw/UvjkxwfhNlI/AAAAAAAABjw/5d_Yx89o8-E/s1600/P1010674.JPG Alpine looking, with incredible cover. Picture by the SAIS boys.

    Snow on the Scottish mountains - 2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by firefly

    Greetings, chionophiles...

    Whilst everywhere else in the country seems to be under water, and suffering from 'no snow' blues, the Highlands of Scotland (the west in particular) are absolutely smothered in the stuff.

    When the avalanche forecasts begun in mid December then things were looking very thin indeed (http://saislochaber.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/a-wet-and-windy-day-on-ben-nevis.html). However, a couple of days later the big, moisture-laden storms from the Atlantic started to roll in. And they just didn't stop. One after the other they rumbled across from the west, depositing shed-loads of snow as the went. By the second week in January, the thin conditions had turned on their head (http://saislochaber.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/the-ben-today.html).

    The pattern since then has been more of the same, with the last two weeks adding and adding to the remarkable depth of snow. By-and-large the weather has been too poor for photographs, but a brief break a few days ago allowed Kenny Gaittens to photograph this lone walker on the very modest hill of Beinn Mhanach, near Tyndrum. More an arctic wilderness than a Scottish hill!

    With the exception of the Lecht (which has suffered due to a lack of northerly airstreams), every ski centre is having to dig its tows out of the snow, and it's making national news (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-25964307). If you've got Facebook, have a nose around its website for some remarkable images: https://www.facebook.com/CairnGormMtn?fref=ts

    The prospect for snow patches this year is one of the best I've seen since I started observing in the 1980s. We're not quite at 1994 levels yet, but if the snow keeps coming then that's a distinct possibility.

    I'll keep you updated periodically.

    Snow Patches On Scottish Mountains

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I don't mind at all, PM!

    Yes, the recent heavy snow has buried all the old snow at Nevis and Garbh Choire Mòr. I did a trip on Sunday to see if the Ben Nevis patches were visible. They weren't, so we were obliged to dig down to find them! An idea of the conditions can be seen in this video: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28183399@N03/10653340576/in/set-72157637273642103

    The full set is here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28183399@N03/sets/72157637273642103/

    I hope this thread has been of interest to you all this year, and sorry I didn't post as often as the previous year. Here's to 2014!

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