Packs
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Packs replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That Severn Estuary streamer (is that a thing?) dumped at least 6 inches from Stroud to Broadway along the Cotswold ridge yesterday - it snowed from 5am to 5pm here on the south-east side of Cheltenham. Bizarrely the other side of town you could still see the grass. -
Interesting this morning here watching the low cloud moving quickly west whilst the very high cloud was moving slowly east.
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Packs replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Yes the radar does look a lot more dramatic than their precipitation map! They showed this too, so I assume the warm air will ruin any chances of it settling?
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Just started snowing here in Cheltenham
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Meteovista seem to always be on the money - all the hype on here about cold and snow last week for this weekend didn't show at all on their forecasts. According to their website (translated from Dutch): MeteoVista uses multiple weather models in combination with a MOS technique. Weather models calculate by means of physical processes, for a certain period, the state of the atmosphere. There are models that do this for the world and models that do this for a certain region, such as Western Europe. The expectation of Meteovista is achieved by use of both global and regional weather models. The number used weather models will be expanded in 2015. MOS stands for Model Output Statistics. A form of statistics applied to improve the forecast of 'normal' weather models. Metdeze technique, the output of the various weather models is constantly matched aanwaarnemingen. This will each location the best forecast parameters (predictors) out of the weather models. This expectation is optimized vervolgensnog once corrected based on statistics from similar weather conditions suit the past. This at the local level provides a much better than weersverwachtingop for example, the immediate data from a single physical weather model.
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Wow, just saw low level clouding heading south whilst the storm above moved north!
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1.1 on my roof here, light snizzle and very windy
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It didn't stick much in Cheltenham today but up on Cleeve Hill was a different story. Over the top (near Postlip Warren) I found a field with 2-7inches snow all over and quite steep so perfect for snowboarding. Snowed on and off most of the day.
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Just cycled across Cheltenham - almost an inch fallen so far I'd say, and starting to stick on the smaller roads
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Nothing here last night, seems it just missed us
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Not sure what models they use but it changes a lot, looks promising for Monday though at moment: http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Penyfan/6day/bot (Pen-y-fan is Brecon. South Wales - not far away)
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Just been up Cleeve Hill with my snowboard. Very strong winds have blown most of the snow away - few nice drifts to have a play on though. What's it like in the rest of the Cotswolds? Anyone got a report...?
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Yes light snow in Cheltenham also, +2.5c in the car, +1.7c on my roof.
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