William of Walworth

Us Glastonbury festivalgoers may well be hopecasters but tonight we find ourselves respecting most peoples' High Pressure dominated, dryness dominated and even heat-likely prognoses of possibilities for next week. Even various latest models seem to be in reasonable levels of agreement by now. Which is not what I saw last night and yesterday. So yes, usual FI health warnings apply but!!! Van and us are away and offline from 10 am-ish tomorrow, until Tuesday 27th or Wednesday 28th June. I'll have to rely on Carol Kirkwood and other crews' smartphones during the build up to and actual fest. Someone mentioned 1995. Not impossible that G2017 could be the hottest G-fest since that notoriously hot year. Some onsite really do not like dust, heat, ridiculous sunshine. But bring all that I say I! You can shelter (with difficulty) from the sun, but you can't sit down in the mud!. (<----2016 version - real mudbath at Glastonbury last year. We're OWED this better/drier/warmer stuff now for 2017 ... ) Thankyou all for tolerating my usual late June obsessions folks. And if any LP influence reasserts itself, can that NOT come from a SWerly direction please?

This is surely for the Model Watching Moans and Ramps thread ?. My preference for a decent HP influenced spell (but above all a DRY spell next week) is entirely and selfishly Glastonbury based, but I'm not getting any consistency right now across different models, about whether summery conditions will last in the South (and SW) beyond about Wednesday (21st). The lack of clarity about how the inconsistencies will resolve themselves is hugely frustrating. But please spare us low pressure incursions from a SW direction, that way mudbaths lie,

I'm very cautious (EITHER WAY!) about anything beyond about Monday 19th at this stage. Is this sensible? Unpredictable/variable outlooks like the current ones leave room for either a complete breakdown or on the other hand, also leave open the possibility?? of HP resasserting itself more strongly for longer, and not regressing as much as some synoptics show ... and there's a fair bit of disagreement between models on the detail/positioning just now. J10 with his relly helpful synoptics over on the Glastonbury 2017 thread (Spring and General Weather discussion) is currently suggesting a more or less gradual breakdown from about Wednesday 21st, with some rain in the SW, albeit possibly?? not too much. Best to keep watching and (in my case) hope for improvements. Monitoring only possible for me up to earlyish Friday 16th, I'm completely offline aftet tthat. But up to then, I'll be model watching with my usual level of late-June obsessiveness, not to say paranoia. No mudbath please**!! (**which is why I'm also no great fan of thunderstorms) ETA : So in short @Frosty., I am worrrying about synoptics for next week! Obvious reasons etc.

You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs. (Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.

That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.

I'm back from an even longer winter hibernation than usual -- I've not been on any Model Output discussion here since October. As ever, uncertainty (and some early June unsettledness) seems to be prevailing in very recent output. For now. I agree with opponents of writing off the whole of June though. Not needed, and definitely not wise meteorologically. I think I said the same last summer though, so I'll try my best to confine myself to actual output discussion now,. Thanks for all charts posted and for insights -- people really know their synoptic stuff here.

Big thanks for this (as every year) J10! I'm belatedly out of Netweather hibernation ... We'll be on site from Sunday 18th to Tuesday 27th June, so a non mudbath for an extyended period would be a big bonus ... Needless to say I'll be following this thread carefully, and the Model OPutput thread also ...

After Tuesday 27th September if you don't mind .. anything can happen after that in my book. Because we're off with The Van next Fri (23rd) to our very last music fest of the season next weekend (Forest of Dean -- tiny festival, more like a large party really) So because of that, I'm literally desparate that we're able to squeeze just ONE more summerlike weekend out -- that surrounding Saturday 24th Sept. We've been at home for the last three weekends, and here in Swansea has been too far West for most of the heat and sunshine that my brother in Cambridge, and others elsewhere in the S and SE, have recently been having. Albeit in midweek mostly! It would be nice now if the best (or at least driest!) weather next week coincides with the actual weekend for once .... Some early signs looking OKish (?) for avoiding LP domination in the South anyway, next week and hopefully up to/including next weekend, But prior to my retirement** I want one last weekend of nice, pleasant, dry, sunny, not too cold conditions. However boring! In fact boring is fine IMO -- sod 'exciting' thunderstorms, I want DRY/SETTLED! (**Retirement from Netweather forums I mean -- I tend to avoid this site over the October to April period bar the basic home page forecasts. I'm the opposite of all you winter obsessives -- only summer interests me!)

Weird month, September. I wonder where Frosty is, has he been posting of late? I'm seeing a very summery week POSSIBLE for much of next week, for some, on some synoptic updates today My expectatons for a weekend (especially a weekend!) as far ahead as that of Sat 24th Sept are highly pessimistic, but IF as late as that in Sept can still retain some sort of HP influence then some types of sort of Autumn cool (but DRY!) can make me happy. All depends on whether there's any chance that the lack so far of storms and washout rain can persist in the S. And if the Atlantic can contrive to head elsewhere, Sorry NE Scotland!!

Just idly wondering what would make any heat of that kind become less transient? Could that kife-edge situation head in either direction? I guess the form-horse for now would be for any influx of any serious heat over the UK to weaken and cover less territory. Personally I prefer less hot and with a more stable/settled/longer-lived HP controlled/influenced outlook, but I think prospects for this immediate weekend followed (perhaps) by drier weather returning after the weekend, are influencing my view a tad on that!

That said, I do agree that pretty much all the current/most recent ouput shows a pretty damned unsettled weekend upcoming, for the W and SW especially. All I can (personally) pray for, SW bound as I am from Thursday, is that rain amounts will be somewhat less than shown on most models right now.

Yes. Because it's surely very iffy for any meteorogist to 'write off' anything beyond the very closest next-few-days outlook unless the overwhelming majority of forecasts are in agreement. I'm not saying the opposite, there are of course plenty of plausible outcomes showing more unsettled conditions than settled, but there are also dissenting outputs showing SOME CHANCE of warmer and more HP influenced possibilities for FI -- at least in the South. I think you could be guilty perhaps, at least in the above post anyway, of ignoring or at least underplaying the differences in opinion between various evolutions.

From those charts above from knocker : Utter weekend washout for many parts. Probably a Glasto-level (?) mudbath in the SW (near Exeter) -- where we'll be at our penmulitmiate van/festival outing this season. I see little if any chance right now of those fronts tracking further North. Is my pessimism for a writeoff weekend nailed on, more or less, by now? Or are 'further runs needed'??

I'd bank the above two (NOTE DATES!), even if they came with with much reduced temperatures. I wonder whether some observers are concentrating too much on the likelihood (or not!) of a hotter than hot plume for a day or three early to mid next week, and not focussing enough on whether HP-influenced conditions will last longer. Or not.

I don't get all this three day extreme plume obsession anyway. I'm fine with very hot, but 22C and no storms for ten days in a generallly stable HP-cell-dominated ten day spell much beats unstable 33C plume for a very short spell in my book.

In every other respect than a shortlived warm to hot spell early next week, BBC forecasts (generally, as well as in John Hammond's video) are not at all on board in my view. I've been looking at the basic BBC forecast for Shropshire (near Bishop's Castle, where we're heading from Wednesday 10th until we leave on the morning of Monday 15th) As weekends are much more important for most, cooler and more (white) cloudy for that area until Sunday looks less good than some other forecasts For the heatwave to last only from Monday until next Wednesday (?), then to break down ahead of the w/e of Saturday 20th as honted at by the BBC, will make most summer preferrers hope the BBC is wrong. Amnd that other model output is more correct. A lot of recent output from other sources shows HP dominated and warmer/sunnier more generally than just for the SE. Both for this coming weekend and for that of Saturday 20th.

These recent ultra-plumey charts do look pretty extreme for mid-next-week agreed. I was very sceptical about them until recently, but it does look like confirmation can't be far off. My personal preference though, is for HP dominance/blocking to last beyond the extreme part of the heatwave that's now starting (possibly?!) to look like it's on the cards. HP generally, even with moderate warmth, for both this coming weekend and for the weekend of Sat 20th August, would be my option to pick. So Scorcher's earlier question, about how long it all might last, is surely key here.

Thanks for the updates all. Personally, I continue to sense possibilities, from some output, that the likely Northerly blast next week won't end up quite as extreme, or end up quite as dominant, as some all-year-round cold-celebrators (I mean objective Model Output Discussion observers here!!! Ahem ... ), seem to assume is completely nailed-on . Form horse in these extreme-in-FI-looking synoptic scenarios is surely a midway compromise. I'll stick my neck out, but only a bit, and gamble on more HP influence than predicted on some output for next w/e (that of Sat 13th), but (realism!) not particularly warm either. I also sense few signs of a washout next week (for most places anyway).

Can anyone PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE try to give me some (slightly? realistic?) reassurance? (of sorts?). That the whole of early to mid August isn't going to be a complete trough-dominated writeoff? Because all I'm getting from today's updates on the Model Output Discussion thread, is writeoffism, and nothing but. Some posters are fairminded about it, including Frosty the eternal optimist. Good on him for being honest about the very poor output of today. I do accept that today's synoptic projections look pretty poor. But to my mind, he (generally) often gets far more unfairly criticised in that thread, for his positivity and OK sometimes, summer cherrypicking, than the hoardes of summer writer-offers on here ever do. Their cherrypicking of the (admittedly frequently accurate!) summer-rubbish output gets far too much of a free pass to my mind. Many of those gloom and doom merchants seem right now to be actively celebrating the current rubbish forecasts for going into August. </rant>

In reponse to MWB's post in particular (foot of previous page) : Excited as some get about full-on Spanish plumes they do tend to have a tendency to be shortlived and unstable. More moderately warm and SW sourced (and less hot) HP incursions are my preference. (Especially with our full week's holiday (Shropshire) lined up for the week starting Mon 8th August!) Thanks to Frosty for highlighting at least the possibility of more HP-build of that kind, shown on SOME recent runs for the first full w/e of August onwards. But as ever, this summerlover has to be very cautious about FI, and I continue to fear the downgrade ...

I'm sceptical (OK no doubt also hopecasting!) that late next week is definitely set to be just like those 06z runs are showing. Fluctuations in positioning and detail still perfectly possible between now and next weekend. More runs needed as ever, and I'd be surprised, (sticking my neck out), if some future output doesn't show soime improvements, with a possible NWwards retreat of trough, as well as more trough dominated turns. It;'s the all too frequently seen uphill and downhill way. I'll be interested to see what the latest are showing next Monday, after my imminent pleasant-weather weekend away near Bristol. (Near term forecasts for that area still looking broadly nice for tonight, Sat, Sunday morning)

I've seen far less rough/broad output consensus between output updates than from today's recent ones. (I'm ignoring those GEM ones that Frosty posted. Outliers!) Before this, there's been much more day-to-day disagreement between the different ones IMO. There's also I think as much room for improvement (for summer lovers) as there is for HP influence waning. I've not seen the runs properly for a little while, so the above is just my current opinion. But I'm not seeing too many signs of washout causing trough domination for now. The oppositwe if anything ... FOR NOW!

I think recent models are too variable to write off late July/early August just yet. Surely the usual FI caution should be just as applicable against possible trough dominated prospects more than ten days away. We're always advised to apply plenty of caution against more HP-influenced FI output. The same caution should be applied against summer write-off predictions that far away. Nothing is done and dusted yet. We're not even sure about the details for this coming Friday and Saturday yet.

Liking the more than reasonable chances on some recent runs of summer-based conditions dominating for a while. One of the last charts I saw before I went a\way last Thursday had a horrible trough based outlook for the w/e of Sat 30th July. This looking less likely now, but we do need more consensus between sources, sustained over several more runs.

Possibly. I remain very cautious having already having had my fingers burned (today) through overconfidence when catching up with the then output on Sunday. More runs needed etc etc.