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William of Walworth

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William of Walworth last won the day on July 13 2011

William of Walworth had the most liked content!

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    Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

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  1. Us Glastonbury festivalgoers may well be hopecasters but tonight we find ourselves respecting most peoples' High Pressure dominated, dryness dominated and even heat-likely prognoses of possibilities for next week. Even various latest models seem to be in reasonable levels of agreement by now. Which is not what I saw last night and yesterday. So yes, usual FI health warnings apply but!!! Van and us are away and offline from 10 am-ish tomorrow, until Tuesday 27th or Wednesday 28th June. I'll have to rely on Carol Kirkwood and other crews' smartphones during the build up to and
  2. This is surely for the Model Watching Moans and Ramps thread ?. My preference for a decent HP influenced spell (but above all a DRY spell next week) is entirely and selfishly Glastonbury based, but I'm not getting any consistency right now across different models, about whether summery conditions will last in the South (and SW) beyond about Wednesday (21st). The lack of clarity about how the inconsistencies will resolve themselves is hugely frustrating. But please spare us low pressure incursions from a SW direction, that way mudbaths lie,
  3. I'm very cautious (EITHER WAY!) about anything beyond about Monday 19th at this stage. Is this sensible? Unpredictable/variable outlooks like the current ones leave room for either a complete breakdown or on the other hand, also leave open the possibility?? of HP resasserting itself more strongly for longer, and not regressing as much as some synoptics show ... and there's a fair bit of disagreement between models on the detail/positioning just now. J10 with his relly helpful synoptics over on the Glastonbury 2017 thread (Spring and General Weather discussion) is currently suggesting a mo
  4. You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs. (Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.
  5. That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.
  6. I'm back from an even longer winter hibernation than usual -- I've not been on any Model Output discussion here since October. As ever, uncertainty (and some early June unsettledness) seems to be prevailing in very recent output. For now. I agree with opponents of writing off the whole of June though. Not needed, and definitely not wise meteorologically. I think I said the same last summer though, so I'll try my best to confine myself to actual output discussion now,. Thanks for all charts posted and for insights -- people really know their synoptic stuff here.
  7. Big thanks for this (as every year) J10! I'm belatedly out of Netweather hibernation ... We'll be on site from Sunday 18th to Tuesday 27th June, so a non mudbath for an extyended period would be a big bonus ... Needless to say I'll be following this thread carefully, and the Model OPutput thread also ...
  8. Have just read Nick's blog -- it's excellent. But when you compare this from Nick : ... it makes me wonder where the BBC are getting their local forecasts from for the coming weekend. They surely need to revise them (and maybe they will) ... their suggestions for some Southern places in their 19:00 updates of largely cloudy/17C maxes are surely highly overcautious by now. All the ouput I'm seeing suggests sunnier and warmer for many Southern areas on Saturday and Sunday ....
  9. What I'm finding hard to predict from current output is cloud/sunshine proportions for later in the coming week and next weekend. Cloud levels would affect temperatures, so thoughts on this anyone? I'm thinking more Southern areas.
  10. Does that mean that the intense-looking low shown on the charts knocker posted, is more likely to be an outlier, I wonder?
  11. I haven't checked the most recent output in as much detail as I'd like, but re the above disgreements, may I gently suggest that the idea of some sort of breakdown for next weekend (that of Saturday 6th Sept) is far from nailed on yet. Not supported by all the models anyway. May happen, may not, we all now that as ever, there's plenty of time for positioning and detail to change between now and then.
  12. Yes, the suggestion of a rainy breakdown (however transient) for next w/e -- that of Sat 6th September -- in SOME recent models (not all) is annoying me a fair bit as well. Good weather for 'back to school' is unimportant to us (no kids, no school connections) but I appreciate that we're in the minority there. Still, that very same factor means we have lots of free weekends, and the number of times since June even, that it's been the weekends that have seen rain, even during relatively settled periods generally, is bound to impact on festival going types like us. Or other times, we're, bee
  13. Of course those 12z ensemble mean charts that Frosty posts from ECM are for the moment only a snapshot possibility for later next week, but charts like that should provide just a small note of caution to those tempted to assume (as I was over previous days/runs) that trough persistance is bound to win and that any efforts at HP encroachment will inevitably be thwarted. There've been odd hints of possible returns to more HP influenced conditions at least for the S (albeit in FI) in some runs for a little while now. Who's to say that such trends might not become a tad stronger than we ori
  14. On those rainfall charts from SteveB, tomorrow looks closer to a washout for a lot of places than do the subsequent three days (at least in the S).
  15. Well, I refuse to be too disheartended (and I'm actually more focussed on the upcoming weekend than Bank Holiday time). Far from a washout on these latest outputs for this weekend, at least not in Devon (where we'll be). Even with such a shortage of summer in current forecasts/output, Friday and Saturday in particular look they may end up pretty pleasant. Just need a modest improvement with HP lingering a little longer (and yes I know that would be temporary) to keep Sunday a bit drier, delaying rain until Monday maybe? and I'd BANK given the trough dominated scenarios we're looking at now
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