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William of Walworth

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William of Walworth last won the day on July 13 2011

William of Walworth had the most liked content!

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    Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

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  1. Us Glastonbury festivalgoers may well be hopecasters but tonight we find ourselves respecting most peoples' High Pressure dominated, dryness dominated and even heat-likely prognoses of possibilities for next week. Even various latest models seem to be in reasonable levels of agreement by now. Which is not what I saw last night and yesterday. So yes, usual FI health warnings apply but!!! Van and us are away and offline from 10 am-ish tomorrow, until Tuesday 27th or Wednesday 28th June. I'll have to rely on Carol Kirkwood and other crews' smartphones during the build up to and actual fest. Someone mentioned 1995. Not impossible that G2017 could be the hottest G-fest since that notoriously hot year. Some onsite really do not like dust, heat, ridiculous sunshine. But bring all that I say I! You can shelter (with difficulty) from the sun, but you can't sit down in the mud!. (<----2016 version - real mudbath at Glastonbury last year. We're OWED this better/drier/warmer stuff now for 2017 ... ) Thankyou all for tolerating my usual late June obsessions folks. And if any LP influence reasserts itself, can that NOT come from a SWerly direction please?
  2. This is surely for the Model Watching Moans and Ramps thread ?. My preference for a decent HP influenced spell (but above all a DRY spell next week) is entirely and selfishly Glastonbury based, but I'm not getting any consistency right now across different models, about whether summery conditions will last in the South (and SW) beyond about Wednesday (21st). The lack of clarity about how the inconsistencies will resolve themselves is hugely frustrating. But please spare us low pressure incursions from a SW direction, that way mudbaths lie,
  3. I'm very cautious (EITHER WAY!) about anything beyond about Monday 19th at this stage. Is this sensible? Unpredictable/variable outlooks like the current ones leave room for either a complete breakdown or on the other hand, also leave open the possibility?? of HP resasserting itself more strongly for longer, and not regressing as much as some synoptics show ... and there's a fair bit of disagreement between models on the detail/positioning just now. J10 with his relly helpful synoptics over on the Glastonbury 2017 thread (Spring and General Weather discussion) is currently suggesting a more or less gradual breakdown from about Wednesday 21st, with some rain in the SW, albeit possibly?? not too much. Best to keep watching and (in my case) hope for improvements. Monitoring only possible for me up to earlyish Friday 16th, I'm completely offline aftet tthat. But up to then, I'll be model watching with my usual level of late-June obsessiveness, not to say paranoia. No mudbath please**!! (**which is why I'm also no great fan of thunderstorms) ETA : So in short @Frosty., I am worrrying about synoptics for next week! Obvious reasons etc.
  4. You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs. (Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.
  5. That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.
  6. I'm back from an even longer winter hibernation than usual -- I've not been on any Model Output discussion here since October. As ever, uncertainty (and some early June unsettledness) seems to be prevailing in very recent output. For now. I agree with opponents of writing off the whole of June though. Not needed, and definitely not wise meteorologically. I think I said the same last summer though, so I'll try my best to confine myself to actual output discussion now,. Thanks for all charts posted and for insights -- people really know their synoptic stuff here.
  7. Big thanks for this (as every year) J10! I'm belatedly out of Netweather hibernation ... We'll be on site from Sunday 18th to Tuesday 27th June, so a non mudbath for an extyended period would be a big bonus ... Needless to say I'll be following this thread carefully, and the Model OPutput thread also ...
  8. After Tuesday 27th September if you don't mind .. anything can happen after that in my book. Because we're off with The Van next Fri (23rd) to our very last music fest of the season next weekend (Forest of Dean -- tiny festival, more like a large party really) So because of that, I'm literally desparate that we're able to squeeze just ONE more summerlike weekend out -- that surrounding Saturday 24th Sept. We've been at home for the last three weekends, and here in Swansea has been too far West for most of the heat and sunshine that my brother in Cambridge, and others elsewhere in the S and SE, have recently been having. Albeit in midweek mostly! It would be nice now if the best (or at least driest!) weather next week coincides with the actual weekend for once .... Some early signs looking OKish (?) for avoiding LP domination in the South anyway, next week and hopefully up to/including next weekend, But prior to my retirement** I want one last weekend of nice, pleasant, dry, sunny, not too cold conditions. However boring! In fact boring is fine IMO -- sod 'exciting' thunderstorms, I want DRY/SETTLED! (**Retirement from Netweather forums I mean -- I tend to avoid this site over the October to April period bar the basic home page forecasts. I'm the opposite of all you winter obsessives -- only summer interests me!)
  9. Weird month, September. I wonder where Frosty is, has he been posting of late? I'm seeing a very summery week POSSIBLE for much of next week, for some, on some synoptic updates today My expectatons for a weekend (especially a weekend!) as far ahead as that of Sat 24th Sept are highly pessimistic, but IF as late as that in Sept can still retain some sort of HP influence then some types of sort of Autumn cool (but DRY!) can make me happy. All depends on whether there's any chance that the lack so far of storms and washout rain can persist in the S. And if the Atlantic can contrive to head elsewhere, Sorry NE Scotland!!
  10. Just idly wondering what would make any heat of that kind become less transient? Could that kife-edge situation head in either direction? I guess the form-horse for now would be for any influx of any serious heat over the UK to weaken and cover less territory. Personally I prefer less hot and with a more stable/settled/longer-lived HP controlled/influenced outlook, but I think prospects for this immediate weekend followed (perhaps) by drier weather returning after the weekend, are influencing my view a tad on that!
  11. That said, I do agree that pretty much all the current/most recent ouput shows a pretty damned unsettled weekend upcoming, for the W and SW especially. All I can (personally) pray for, SW bound as I am from Thursday, is that rain amounts will be somewhat less than shown on most models right now.
  12. Yes. Because it's surely very iffy for any meteorogist to 'write off' anything beyond the very closest next-few-days outlook unless the overwhelming majority of forecasts are in agreement. I'm not saying the opposite, there are of course plenty of plausible outcomes showing more unsettled conditions than settled, but there are also dissenting outputs showing SOME CHANCE of warmer and more HP influenced possibilities for FI -- at least in the South. I think you could be guilty perhaps, at least in the above post anyway, of ignoring or at least underplaying the differences in opinion between various evolutions.
  13. From those charts above from knocker : Utter weekend washout for many parts. Probably a Glasto-level (?) mudbath in the SW (near Exeter) -- where we'll be at our penmulitmiate van/festival outing this season. I see little if any chance right now of those fronts tracking further North. Is my pessimism for a writeoff weekend nailed on, more or less, by now? Or are 'further runs needed'??
  14. I'd bank the above two (NOTE DATES!), even if they came with with much reduced temperatures. I wonder whether some observers are concentrating too much on the likelihood (or not!) of a hotter than hot plume for a day or three early to mid next week, and not focussing enough on whether HP-influenced conditions will last longer. Or not.
  15. I don't get all this three day extreme plume obsession anyway. I'm fine with very hot, but 22C and no storms for ten days in a generallly stable HP-cell-dominated ten day spell much beats unstable 33C plume for a very short spell in my book.
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