gottolovethisweather

Skulls I think you need to read the posts before posting up your thoughts. Whilst for your location it may well be a slightly different picture, the main theme is cold by the 12th, colder still thereafter with snow-producing 850s around from approximately D6 onwards. Personally, I say the trend is set but the specifics are not when it comes to the six million dollar questions of who, when, where and how much snow, ice the UK will receive and precisely how long the cold spell might last. I say this one will have legs.

Its not really discussion for this thread BUT being as Svalbard (positioned between Norway and the North Pole) recently had an anomaly of +17c I'd say all that additional heat would cause mayhem somewhere in the globe. EDIT: I had quick look around the web and I believe that figure should read +17f in old money it is still more than 10c above the norm and that is breathtaking enough.

Don't worry, some folk were very bold in proclaiming Winter was over in December etc. and that we wouldn't see any cold before February blah blah blah. Others held back from making those assumptions and its these type of equally brave people whom I have always listened to and continue to. Nevertheless our global climate is a complex system (too complex for me for sure) and Mother Nature always has the upper hand. We simply cannot fathom the unfathomable in my opinion, but there is no harem in trying to and I applaud those who do just that.

Tis best always to use the ensembles spreads in order to define where FI begins by looking at the deviations of individual member runs. Without looking, I'd suggest it lies somewhere around the 12th/13th January at the moment which is which it'd be ridiculous pinpointing specific wintry events at this point in time. Irrespective of all that cold synoptics are a-coming to this little blob of an island. As for my deep cold (broadly speaking about entrenched nationwide snow-producing 850s here) forecast probabilities a day on from yesterday's 60% I'd say they now sit at approximately a 65 to 70% likelihood of happening. GAME ON!

Another bonus, perhaps overlooked by some is that the Atlantic and the North Sea go into the freezer (not literally) from 12th January. So if the GFS 12z was taken at face value, all those moaning about our little island's Northern Hemipshere positioning (with oceans all around us) being a curse for snow-producing synoptics can probably THINK AGAIN. A few days before the proof is in the pudding and the cold is in the bag but I'm sure you get the idea. Bring it on.

Agreed and this is only the start, January 11th/12th is when the cold spell begins, who knows when it ends and how brutal it might become. Although it'll never please the snow-loving fraternity , I do hope the drier signal holds as well, more especially for parts of Scotland and Northwest and Northeast England. The perfect cold spell for me would consist of an increasing risk of UK wide snowfall and then a drier big freeze some days later. Maybe, just maybe, this might become a reality. We must still see such tentative signs continuing over the full mo del suites over the next 48 hours or so before its a gimmee though, I'd suggest. Proper Winter is looking like its on its way.

Brilliant news, Thanks. So your thoughts aren't too far off what I said yesterday when I stated the following. " The deepest cold is modelled to be just out of reach of our Isles right now but the cold will build ever stronger from approximately the 11th January onwards. Air Temperatures by then would range from roughly 4c below average to possibly as much as 8c below average which for most parts of the UK would bring snow potential. The cool to cold weather stays with us throughout the GFS 12z FI timeframes from the 12th through to the 21st and on the ECM it should stick around until at least the 15th January which is the farthest out the operational run goes. COLD WEATHER IS SEEMINGLY ON ITS WAY! " Yes, granted I was deliberately not looking to the specifics in my original post but why should we? Let's get the cold in firstly. D5 onwards is where its at hopefully the cold spell will have some LEGS too.

Can I BANK that, it's my Birthday on the 21st, shame it's somewhere around about 21,600 minutes away.

A lot of folk view the NWP outputs and their evolutions in many a different way and I guess that is the fun of the MOD thread, although it can be a proverbial nightmare for newbies, which we must all bear in mind when posting. However, having not yet seen the overnight runs I am glad one or two of those trusted forum members are suggesting things are forecast to be largely as they were, some twelve hours ago. The reason I'm pleased is that the turning colder signal is a solid one and the ground might yet turn to a similar state this time next week with frosts and perhaps something wintry around, who'd have thought it. Here is the link to my post offering up analysis of yesterday's 12z for those that haven't seen it, the GFS 0z remains on trend from the 12th January and so does the ECM 0z. All good stuff for coldies.

Indeed, most importantly a drier pattern could be looking like a reasonable probability in about 8 to 10 days time, perhaps before. Moreover, as you say, the chill descends beforehand, especially on occasions when the wind backs around to the NW as the troughing overhead, tilts one way or tother. Heck, there is currently an Easterly bringing hill and some lower-level snow to Scotland as I type. It will be chilly (defined by me as a couple degrees below average) relatively speaking tomorrow where FOG struggles to clear, with Temps circa 4c to 8c at best. The 7th January as stated many times previously is another cool/cold day with widespread 850s within the region of -3 to -5 which at the extreme end would bring borderline snow-making potential again, should precipitation be around, however this seems unlikely. The deepest cold is modelled to be just out of reach of our Isles right now but the cold will build ever stronger from approximately the 11th January onwards. Air Temperatures by then would range from roughly 4c below average to possibly as much as 8c below average which for most parts of the UK would bring snow potential. The cool to cold weather stays with us throughout the GFS 12z FI timeframes from the 12th through to the 21st and on the ECM it should stick around until at least the 15th January which is the farthest out the operational run goes. COLD WEATHER IS SEEMINGLY ON ITS WAY! Just how cold, how much snow, how many frosts we all might get and how long it might last will not be answered for many days to come. Yesterday I gave the probabilities of deep cold weather coming as a 40 to 50% probability, I still remain cautious as there can often be a proverbial "fly in the ointment" for our little island but I'll up that prospect to 60% given the latest information I've seen around the place. One last thing, some fantastic contributions from many a well-respected member over the last couple of days, keep em coming and whatever the weather please play nicely.

From the 11th/12th January onwards, I'd give it 30 to 40% perhaps slightly higher chance of verifying at this stage. A trend is a trend is a trend though and Phil NW's post from earlier and Singularity's above in particular highlight what to look for from a NH perspective I feel. Give things another few days and the colder trend might be in the bank.

Are the two dates you mention +Knocker concerning this week or next? As if it is the former I have been keeping a keen eye on the Friday/Saturday event for a couple of days now, as illustrated by this post for one, am pleased to see this still being a viable event, even if short-lived and transient. The charts offering up the best potential for coldies still remain slightly out of reach beyond the 11th/12th January. However we are seeing signs of consistency in this latter aspect, so my wintry hopes are tentatively building by the day let's say.

Thanks for this Phil, makes me think I might have been overly up thread, perhaps I should stick with my thoughts from yesterday, which largely replicate your own views. The thing is, I just couldn't elevate myself to the same level of excitement expressed by a few forum members yesterday evening, especially given that the best (wintry type) charts were seemingly out in la la land anyhow. Nonetheless, let's give things another week or so and should these Arctic heights, displaced Vortex and the proposed stratosphere changes come ever closer into the reliable, I'll be jumping around like the proverbial madman at the Winter wonderland prospects.

Nick, to my mind, heights largely remain throughout from t+120hrs through to the last frames of the ECM 0z, at least that's how I viewed the operational run. Having said that, this will hopefully be a rogue run and not a trend-setter as I stated previously. It is but only one aspect in a much bigger and complex global picture (can't pick the right words I need) and other parts of this system to contemplate are suggesting for better signs for coldies. Second half of January is most definitely up for grabs of course.

And another issue I saw on the ECM 0z is the tendency for heights to rebuild over mainland Europe from the 9th January, which sadly if this becomes the new trendsetter we will likely continue as we were in the UK. Nonetheless Temperatures are never truly mild for the foreseeable over the UK more seasonal than anything else, on Wednesday (the driest day this coming week) Temperatures will be relatively chilly with 850s of -3 to -5. These upper Air Temperatures suggest surface Temperatures approximately the same amount below average for once, if only for one day. Friday into Saturday still looks interesting for some more widespread wintriness as I have stated before. Hopefully the overnight European setup as predicted by the ECM is incorrect and will revert back to something better for coldies, if not I'll be giving things another week to ten days before getting excited again.

Yes, the Jet is having a tendency to split at that point in time and one section dives North and the other part SE'wards into central Europe. I had noticed the BBC long-ranger had also shown this prospect over the past couple of days. From T+96 to T+120 hours is where some wintry fun and games might start showing their hand more often in the outputs. As ever, we need to get there before jumping all over it however.

I don't like commenting on one run in isolation but the GFS this morning does hint at the possibility of a slightly more widespread wintry event than anything we've witnessed during recent weeks and that is around the 8th January. It will likely be a "blink" and you miss it event but some sleetiness/snow isn't beyond comprehension if I'm honest. Beyond that out into FI, from around about the 13th January onwards, things could turn much colder and potentially snowier across the UK. Shame this doesn't fit into the timeframes of the ECM just yet, but it still is one trend on which to keep an eye on. This chart is actually from the 7th January but you can see the crucial 528DAM line attempting to make inroads. As the days unfold, snow chances are increasing up North and the likelihood of snow over rain seems to only grow as we get deeper into FI. Further South over much of England and Wales, Temps are set to be near to slightly below average on the whole and when skies clear (not very often Thanks to much troughing overhead) we might get a seasonal frost by night. An unsettled and windy week coming up and thereafter, perhaps a growing trend towards a "East meets West" battleground scenario as we head deeper into January.

Welcome aboard Katrine and Thanks for the chart. Not too much action within this thread of late given the mainly snowless situation over Europe and the UK during recent weeks. It still is a thread I like to pop by from time to time though as I live in hope of seeing something wintry.

Oh yes please, a frost would be a nice bonus once the early part of next week's rainfall has passed. I didn't even get to record a frost on the 1st January as my Davis registered a low of 0.1c. Talk about take the proverbial ..... Roll on Spring, probably get plenty of frosts and snow then, lol. Where can we access these charts from Sub Zero?

The date on the chart aforementioned is the 11th January which tells you all you need to know really, which is to be unconcerned about said storm event until it comes into the reliable, which won't be for the best part of another week if at all. Unfortunately for those wanting the complete opposite by way of colder snowy synoptics (which includes me), the same goes for us, the best charts for snow down in lowland England are currently out of reach in FI. Suffice to say, we aren't in the same boat as per previous weeks, as things high up above be a-changing and the global NH picture is set to give us something more average to cooler than average Temperature wise. I still foresee a few rain events to come before the chill descends however, at least parts due North and Northeast are set get colder which bodes well for everyone else, in the run up to mid-January. Another bonus is that parts of Europe have recently see snow and will continue to see some over the coming days as well.

Snow or rain, dry and chilly or moist and mild, come hell and high water (no pun intended) whatever the weather look after yourselves and have a wonderful evening my friends. See you in 2016 and I for one am looking forward to a most intriguing final two-thirds to Winter.

I hear you. Not my style, evidently. Anyway, darts time and shandy time again for me. In summary: A good ECM and whilst NOT a bitter cold run, some days will feel distinctly chilly, more so away from my patch in tropical Southern England where we're set for a few bouts of rain ourselves for a change.

It's called jumping all over ONE CHART in ISOLATION before the run is COMPLETED, Pete. Sorry to shout but we all need to heed learn these lessons, as told by the wisest heads in here. Whether you include me in that bracket is debatable, but that is missing the point of course.

And as a coldie whose impartial to either dry or snowy conditions I'm certainly happy should that end up the final reality. The ECM 12z looks especially calmer and colder for those in the Northern parts of the UK. Who bl**dy ray I say! Should any easterly develop I'd suggest that will also aid the situation, due to them hopefully containing a lot of dry cold air as well.