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gottolovethisweather

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Everything posted by gottolovethisweather

  1. All I can say is, should that come off, Happy Birthday gottolovethisweather. Intriguingly, such charts have been replicated on several recent occasions at that timeframe of late, hmmm. Could it?
  2. Yep, FI begins right there I'd suggest, as depicted by the ensembles spreads, anything beyond is just dreamed up charts or charts from hell depending on one's preference. In the main, everything synoptically is nailed beforehand so, let's get these chart examples into D3 or D4 by next Monday and what an end to January it could be!
  3. Yes and the surface High way out West, good riddance to it. All looking good in the reliable, end of next week well up for grabs.
  4. Yep, the surface High could do with sinking a bit I guess, but all going to plan, makes me think FI is nearer t+168 hours as opposed to much earlier on, the trend is clearly our friend.
  5. While waiting for the ECM outputs, worth bearing in mind the following. Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course. Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.
  6. That's if your flight can land, among the drifts we'll have in place by then. Okay, slightly overoptimistic here, but one never knows.
  7. Nah, before that, it'll kick into gear sometime between 21st and 31st January. Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course. Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.
  8. That's the firm trend, in my opinion, has been since Monday. We need to firstly endure NW'rly flows from the 14th for a few days, wintry showers (more up North than anywhere) in between rain bands with average to cold temps the further North you go. Come the end of the next working week (D7/D8 currently) winds back increasingly to the North with NW-SE diving lows becoming more prominent. The final third of January, snow likely almost anywhere at times, but equally many might have to endure bitter cold crisp nights and days whilst being predominantly dry, oh yes, with winds coming from an Easterly quadrant by then. I am expecting some stonking charts in the mid-range over the next couple of days for coldies to view.
  9. Indeed and as I mentioned here, the real fun and games are just sitting outside the reliable right now, but by next Monday at the latest, the wintry charts are within reach and more importantly realistic in nature, hence why I'm never a fan of D8 onwards charts, unless they are repeated daily at least once right down to t+48 hours or whatever. The first wintry taster for a lucky few is today through Thursday then back to mostly dry and settled, after that post D8/D9 is where it ALL kicks off.
  10. Quite possibly. The NWP outputs and teleconnections are the most sophisticated tools we currently have these days. The rest are just tools. If only they looked at themselves in the mirror once in a while. Anyway, enough, I'm derailing quickly this thread myself.
  11. Absolutely, that chart is 9,900 minutes nearer the reliable timeframe than your previous t+384hr chart. It is precisely this that people view (D10 to D16 charts whatever they be in minutes) as a given and accordingly vent their frustrations as they do not recur in the way a coldie would like. I think we ALL should state timescales and usual caveats involved as often as is possible in our posts to avoid the toy-throwing and take everybody reading as being a newbie to the Meteorology game.
  12. I still stand by this and maintain that this week will be a much better read, watch, listen and learning experience for all. Going on what several of the old school forum users have stated, the wintry charts at FI should finally be entering that all-important, reachable and realistic short-term to mid-range (D3 to D6) by the end of this working week, if not next Monday. Let's get the cold in firstly before even seeking out the snow chances as well, please. A week of eye-candy 00z and 12z NWP outputs lies ahead. Additionally, to save face on constant who said this and that, make your own minds up and follow a select few experience others, equally save the odd chart to your pc, mobile or laptop and track the signals yourselves as mentioned here. We're all here to learn, and the weather is teaching us new tricks, every week if not day of the year.
  13. Thank you, a most informative and well-measured post right there. Monday's 12zs onwards will bring back the colder scenarios to the NWP outputs after these weekend wobbles, you mark my words! I agree on the increasing signal of the NW-SE tracking lows, the first of which on Monday/Tuesday should see wintry showers in its wake. Look NW. Look N and eventually E come the final third of January if not before is what I think will happen, with a big switch around first being consistently highlighted within the reliable by w/c 14th January. Patience once again necessary, especially so, if we really want deep cold to show up within D4-D5 timescales.
  14. In my opinion, the best way to view the GFS is to ignore the 6z and 18z outputs, stick to only the midnight and midday, save some charts to your laptop or desktop, say 120hrs, 168hrs and 240hrs for example and reanalyse them each day. Same goes for the GEFS ensembles which are more reliable in the main and useful for trend indications, around D6 to D10 timescales. If you get het up about "on the ground" specifics at such ranges, you're in the wrong game, upper air patterns and stratosphere (I lack plenty of knowledge hereabouts) are where all of us should be focussing our attention.
  15. AJ quote at its finest. And yes, it's only the weather. No talk of walls, Brexit, beer or kebabs, just fun in the netweather forum asylum. All eyes on the ECM will which likely go against the odds and return to normal predictions come Monday.
  16. Oh yes, D4/D5 and beyond is where FI sits at the moment I think. Not convinced by the lack of wintry synoptics mentioned in the BBC longer-range forecasts, I think they'll soon be playing to coldies' tunes as the turnaround and blocked Atlantic signal takes up more prominence.
  17. Having analysed other people's thoughts and posted charts, the key timeframe to perhaps talk seriously about some snow now is January 9th through January 11th. That is still D6 to D8 at this range, so post the weekend wobbles (guaranteed), we need Monday's official forecasts and NWP outputs to highlight this first real wintry possibility of the winter so far. More fun and games as we head deeper into the second part of January no doubt. A 50/50 chance right now I guess. The caveat is just where will the HP ridge sit, if out in the Atlantic, then places, East and Northeast might be best suited for the wintry stuff. Time to worry over those specifics is not now, however.
  18. Is it such that finally, the NWP outputs are following my advice, not just my hunch either btw, a few other posters have been resolute in not jumping all over every run and have continually looked at things in the round. Week two cold snowy spell still on target? Now, we just need the cards to fall in place and the specifics for next week will be clearer by the weekend. Get these D9 and D10 charts to be there at D4 and D5 by then and we're on for a decent chance of snow-filled synoptics.
  19. Not sure what the long-term prospects hold because I haven't been following every update but the short-term appears to have the cold upped a notch. Media forecasts showing Maximum temperatures of 3c or 4c even down south in the big cities, come, the end of the week. Not far removed from my expectations here I think, with a colder scenario slowly developing and snow in the mix by week two or three?
  20. Week two Northerly and Northeasterly kicks in. Week three (14th January onwards) brings a Beast from the East again, perhaps? That's how I would write all predictions up to mid-January right now. A slowly developing yet perfect scenario is eventually coming to us snow lovers IMHO.
  21. It all points to week two being a good one, as hinted at by most runs, aside from a rogue one here an there as to be expected. Before all that we at least have a day or two of Northerly influence as we hit 2019.
  22. I'd say the HP is slowly edging North and West there as broadly expected by myself and many other knowledgeable folks. The GFS runs will likely only be right in 1 in 4 of their daily runs with the 12z and 0z being the most reliable, not sure people jump all over them, to be honest.
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