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Everything posted by gottolovethisweather

  1. To be honest, we should expect nothing more, or nothing less when it comes snowcasting. Incidentally, has the forecast not changed again? More focus now on the weekend happenings. It'll likely be transitional in nature but the cold air is set to stay longer than originally predicted by the NWP suites even just two days ago. By the end of the weekend, it'll be game over and onto looking into the longer-term developments around the Xmas period.
  2. One word sums next week up, having just watched the Beeb 10-dayer. Whether (or should that read weather), it's the politics or weather for the upcoming week, it is.... UNCERTAINTY
  3. Late Wednesday into Thursday is the day of the big battle, 60/40 possibility of some short-lived transient snowfalls around then I'd suggest. The on-the-ground specifics as to who gets it and how much will only be answered as late as Wednesday, as that snow is such an oh-so-tricky thing to forecast, but it's coming to a few of us.
  4. Decision Day. I'm on a countryside walk, come public house hunt that day, it should be dry on the outside that day, chilly with abundant sunshine. Might be some sleety flakes and hill snow around next week in places as well. The evening runs of the ECM and UKMO are especially important tonight for anyone chasing snowflakes. Deep cold unlikely but chilly to colder than average Temps look like ruling the roost for much of next week. It's all about the D4 and D5 charts from four to five days ago coming to fruition, will it go our way?
  5. I'm willing to agree on your comment "High pressure will build this weekend turning things colder, good support for high pressure to extend and build across Scandinavia thereafter." As I mentioned last Monday, there was a growing consensus even then, that between the inter/intra-model runs, the GFS, in particular, wanted to bring in HP dominance around December 6th through to 10th or thereabouts. As for deep cold, we need the ECM D9 and D10 charts showing such scenarios to be there at D4 or D5 in my experience, which means by the end of this working week, we will KNOW whether SNOW is something worth shouting about, for the run-up to the middle of December. Winter proper appears to be lurking close-by.
  6. I have not been viewing the NWP outputs myself, just relying on you guys but little has changed in my mind from my thoughts this past Monday. A drier, potentially colder than average period of weather could well be heading our way by the end of the next working week. Who knows what week two and the middle of December might offer us? But all eyes on the 10-15 dayers from here on in. Beggars cannot be choosers as my thoughts are well known over the weekend wobbles, but I just hope these charts are still showing some cold/very cold solutions come Monday and Tuesday. Bring on something crisp, sunny and cold please, weather gods, 15 to 16c down South today and tomorrow by Christ!
  7. I'm still going for a short period of High-Pressure dominance, akin to UKMO at t+168 if only lasting for a few days. Is there a dry signal backing those charts up as well, come the 2nd week of December?
  8. Ah, those weekend model suite wobbles strike again and again. The trend is our friend and despite not following the model runs myself, I am happy to go with the consensus that the 2nd week of December is where coldies should be focussing their attention, even if it is purely a dry cool/cold settled spell to kick things off. The 10-day plus forecasts on the BBC news channel which I tend to watch religiously should start picking up on such signals later into the week, with cold weather getting a mention again.
  9. Particularly so in the heart of Winter, late December through to early February. Oh, the horrific memories of the thirty-nine (yes, it was 39) Atlantic depressions that most of the UK endured from October through to March I think it was, back in 2013/14. Please no, no, never again and I don't even live on the coast. That recent winter! The above reason is precisely why I'm firmly in the traditional cold but crisp or snowy camp and probably always will be, plus the memories of the late 80s and most of the 1990s haunt me too.
  10. You want dry, preferably not windy weather, where have you been all year? As is the want of the British climate, your day will be anything but what you expect I guess, but more hopefully what you want it to be.
  11. It is such an odd pattern right now, so much so I heard a BBC Forecaster, possibly Nick Miller? state how unusual it was, synoptically speaking. So with that in mind, I wouldn't take anything beyond the weekend as set in stone, until say, Friday/Saturday when we might know where the rest of next week is heading. Is Shannon Entrophy at play in the modelling I wonder? Either way, wet snow today in parts of the Isle of Wight even, they can go whole winters without seeing some as well.
  12. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Great artistry, that is good @evans1892
  13. And so it proved to be, talk of some sleet and snow showers on the mainstream media next week and not specifically at height or up in prone Northern areas either. A fascinating week ahead for coldies, if nothing overly dramatic, at least it's a start.
  14. Is this a Brexit exit post? Speaking of the Eastern block and perhaps the best is NorthWest Europe. Beware the release of the Beast, come late November into December? Hopefully, the long-range uncertainty will be sorted by then in the models and in political circles.
  15. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Looks very much like a right ole.. then @Frosty. Mixed Bag
  16. 14c at 1pm, forget summer, or even autumn, could be one of those gloomier mild winter's day, lol. The heat will return, some ten degrees warmer in a couple of days time most probably. Talk about the ups and downs of our modern climate.

    1. Mapantz


      19.6°C here. 🌞

    2. gottolovethisweather


      Lucky b*&^"r, but yes, I can now see blue skies, so things could be a-turning, not complaining though, my house is appreciating the cooler air.

    3. Alice1991


      I like hot sunny weather, but I was beginning to get a little bored of it. I wouldn't like to live in a country where it is the same type of weather all year round.

  17. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Indeed, as before, underdoing Maximums, so at the extreme end, by Friday, I expect we'll see a 32c to 33c around somewhere. After that, might get warmer still. The first ten days of August was always a period to watch, as it was in 2003 and it could be a case of history repeating if not to the same levels, but still something noteworthy.
  18. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Apologies for replying to my own post, but like most coldies rarely do I post in here in Summer. But, yes, the above still applies and far too many in here, stick to the models' temperature forecasts and don't seem to appreciate that they are merely guesses, the reality at t+24, t+72 or t+360 hours is always an unknown. Mid-range temps, say D3 to D6 are often out by two or three degrees, hence Monday's maxes were two days before, predicted to be lower yet 33c was breached. Mine and your gut feeling of past heatwave experiences, climate or even basic weather knowledge and the appreciation of the conditions, here and now, can allow you to make a reasonable judgement. With the Beeb on board with a max temp 34c/35c prediction for Thursday, my attention now turns to the end of July and first ten days of August, I'm thinking the dry Europe heat sink conditions will spread northwards and such maximums will be repeated and potentially exceeded. 36c on the cards in the next 15 days? Watch this space!
  19. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    I agree. The tv forecasts for today showing 32c or perhaps 33c as a maximum temperature and with no let up in the reliable, 34c or 35c will surely be reachable, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. Short-term upgrades in temperatures are often unforeseen in the NWP outputs for whatever reason, the same goes for extreme minimums in winter to my mind. As for next week and beyond, I'll leave that to the others.
  20. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    The word for today in the model outlook is...... FURNACE, aye, aye Captain Shortwave. The heat is on! I'm expecting upgrades to media forecasts covering a range of Maximum temperatures nearer to 35/36c as I previously mentioned, likely equating to 21-23c overnight minimums in the extreme instances. Not my cup of tea, that sort of setup, but it is what it is and the weather will do, what it does and does do extremes a lot these days.
  21. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Or BOTH. 35 to 36c on the cards for a one or two locations I'd suggest. Much respect to SM for highlighting this probability with one of his rare summer forays into the forum, way back earlier this month.
  22. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    It is the longevity of the dryness that is the problem as far as I know. Everything in nature is thirsty, all crops and livestock need a constant supply. Plus, these days the extremes don't lend themselves to a situation which helps farming or nature in general. It is a very different climate and world to that of 1976, think overpopulated lands and the problems these bring with them and you'll see what I mean. A few hours of steady prolonged light to moderate rainfall over all parts of the UK right now would be most helpful but that will not be happening any day soon. Still, enjoy the weather for what it is, I say, a memorable summer and one for the record books.
  23. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Looking increasingly fine and warm where cloud cover dissipates, [email protected] As far as I know, this is what the backbiting and snide remarks revolve around (not from you personally as you're above all that). Past history and over numerous occasions in recent weeks, it has remained cloudy, murky or of a similar description and cool for most of the day. Which of course, contrasts deeply with what was actually forecast for a specific location, i.e. sunny and warm. I have travelled widely in southern England during this timeframe for my job and the forecast was a bust on numerous occasions. Don't take the model outputs as SAID, some forecasts WILL be wide off the mark, yet most will hopefully get the dry, sunny and warm weather they deserve. Be careful out and about in Storm Hector tomorrow and overnight, people.
  24. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    And link that to additional daytime detritus from overnight storms (which have been pretty ferocious and amazing to boot for May) and it is a gloomfest for parts inland as well.