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Everything posted by gottolovethisweather

  1. Looks very much like a right ole.. then @Frosty. Mixed Bag
  2. 14c at 1pm, forget summer, or even autumn, could be one of those gloomier mild winter's day, lol. The heat will return, some ten degrees warmer in a couple of days time most probably. Talk about the ups and downs of our modern climate.

    1. Mapantz


      19.6°C here. 🌞

    2. gottolovethisweather


      Lucky b*&^"r, but yes, I can now see blue skies, so things could be a-turning, not complaining though, my house is appreciating the cooler air.

    3. Alice1991


      I like hot sunny weather, but I was beginning to get a little bored of it. I wouldn't like to live in a country where it is the same type of weather all year round.

  3. Indeed, as before, underdoing Maximums, so at the extreme end, by Friday, I expect we'll see a 32c to 33c around somewhere. After that, might get warmer still. The first ten days of August was always a period to watch, as it was in 2003 and it could be a case of history repeating if not to the same levels, but still something noteworthy.
  4. Apologies for replying to my own post, but like most coldies rarely do I post in here in Summer. But, yes, the above still applies and far too many in here, stick to the models' temperature forecasts and don't seem to appreciate that they are merely guesses, the reality at t+24, t+72 or t+360 hours is always an unknown. Mid-range temps, say D3 to D6 are often out by two or three degrees, hence Monday's maxes were two days before, predicted to be lower yet 33c was breached. Mine and your gut feeling of past heatwave experiences, climate or even basic weather knowledge and the appreciation of the conditions, here and now, can allow you to make a reasonable judgement. With the Beeb on board with a max temp 34c/35c prediction for Thursday, my attention now turns to the end of July and first ten days of August, I'm thinking the dry Europe heat sink conditions will spread northwards and such maximums will be repeated and potentially exceeded. 36c on the cards in the next 15 days? Watch this space!
  5. I agree. The tv forecasts for today showing 32c or perhaps 33c as a maximum temperature and with no let up in the reliable, 34c or 35c will surely be reachable, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. Short-term upgrades in temperatures are often unforeseen in the NWP outputs for whatever reason, the same goes for extreme minimums in winter to my mind. As for next week and beyond, I'll leave that to the others.
  6. The word for today in the model outlook is...... FURNACE, aye, aye Captain Shortwave. The heat is on! I'm expecting upgrades to media forecasts covering a range of Maximum temperatures nearer to 35/36c as I previously mentioned, likely equating to 21-23c overnight minimums in the extreme instances. Not my cup of tea, that sort of setup, but it is what it is and the weather will do, what it does and does do extremes a lot these days.
  7. Or BOTH. 35 to 36c on the cards for a one or two locations I'd suggest. Much respect to SM for highlighting this probability with one of his rare summer forays into the forum, way back earlier this month.
  8. It is the longevity of the dryness that is the problem as far as I know. Everything in nature is thirsty, all crops and livestock need a constant supply. Plus, these days the extremes don't lend themselves to a situation which helps farming or nature in general. It is a very different climate and world to that of 1976, think overpopulated lands and the problems these bring with them and you'll see what I mean. A few hours of steady prolonged light to moderate rainfall over all parts of the UK right now would be most helpful but that will not be happening any day soon. Still, enjoy the weather for what it is, I say, a memorable summer and one for the record books.
  9. Looking increasingly fine and warm where cloud cover dissipates, [email protected] As far as I know, this is what the backbiting and snide remarks revolve around (not from you personally as you're above all that). Past history and over numerous occasions in recent weeks, it has remained cloudy, murky or of a similar description and cool for most of the day. Which of course, contrasts deeply with what was actually forecast for a specific location, i.e. sunny and warm. I have travelled widely in southern England during this timeframe for my job and the forecast was a bust on numerous occasions. Don't take the model outputs as SAID, some forecasts WILL be wide off the mark, yet most will hopefully get the dry, sunny and warm weather they deserve. Be careful out and about in Storm Hector tomorrow and overnight, people.
  10. And link that to additional daytime detritus from overnight storms (which have been pretty ferocious and amazing to boot for May) and it is a gloomfest for parts inland as well.
  11. This was a requote of my own understanding of the forecast synoptics six days back and the threat of it becoming a recurring setup. Well, it turned out to be very accurate, not that I begrudge others of plentiful sunshine or storms.
  12. Yes, saw that on the Beeb earlier. Weird weather patterns and from Tamara's post up thread and that of seasoned others, not a lot of change in the coming days. Whilst, risking another moan, I urge people not to use specifics such as lovely, gorgeous or whatever in their postings as clearly, unless the cloud actually clears, regional differences will be vast. Frosty's quote "the devil will be in the detail" could have been in use for many days of late and is most pertinent, given the endless gloom descended on Newbury the last few days.
  13. Far from point-scoring if I'm honest, just differences of opinions and additional confusion, whilst, the back and forth conversations are probably best left off the forum, I think we all agree. My post requoted below kickstarted some of the discussions on this quiet weather day, I merely mentioned the vast differences between forecasted expectations and the actual weather received. The BBC forecasts and not simply their own were some 8 to 10c short of what was originally expected, only this morning. I noted such forecasts on the Beeb were routinely skipped past in favour of the more important weekend forecasts, but a forecast FAIL is a forecast #FAIL whichever whey they choose to paint it. See my post below for more on this total shambles of a forecast, which could indeed recur itself in the coming days. Not wanting to pee on the chips for people, this forthcoming weekend, but IF and when the crud comes in, you should drop your expected forecast maximums by some MARGIN, that would be my advice, as witnessed today in Newbury and many other parts down South.
  14. 11c and cloudy, is a bleddy big downgrade if you ask me. Anyway, moving on............
  15. Cloudy and 11c currently here in Newbury, forecasted maximum temperature, 22c. So, in terms of the BH weekend, if clag remains all day (perhaps unlikely) in a few specific locations, it WILL be pretty grim all things considered, whilst others lap up the heat! That's the UK for you though. A difficult forecast when modelling outputs and forecasters' opinions against the ACTUAL reality differ at such short-ranges. Time will tell but here's hoping, most will see decent weather.
  16. 60mm level snow cover in Newbury, so not bad considering we were very much on the Eastern extremities of the main event. More to come, perhaps? Before the long slow thaw sets in. What a fascinating way to start Meteorological spring whatever you might think of it all. Take care all.
  17. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    Oh stained glass window, so might say the local sheep farmer or grower, I reckon. For those who haven't read it, this is worthy of a quick read, it discusses February 1962 here, which in fairness bears well for next winter as it'll be even more brutal perhaps (should you like it that way). The cold spell of February/March 1962
  18. Blown through here now, came through about 10:45 pm, nothing much to it as a few others have stated, looks like its pepping up again as it rushes down the M4 towards London and holding itself together better nearer the South Coast.
  19. Judging by the NW radar, I'm expecting the squall to hit about 11 pm here in Newbury, so may stay up and listen to the gusts and the horizontal rain hitting the windows.
  20. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Thanks, that clears that up. I do feel in some circumstances these charts could be misinterpreted as being more extreme than the reality, kind of why I stick with the daily runs and generally ignore them aside from looking at the global picture. Thanks again, @Radiating Dendrite.
  21. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    This chart, for instance, is one which I'd pull out as an example of what I'm rambling about in my post above. These show overnight 850s rather than daytime, hence they would be much colder at midnight, than midday, given clear skies and other appropriate conditions.
  22. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Considering I said this back on the 29th December, I'm happy with how things have panned out, albeit if my thoughts do transpire to that currently forecast which is some blocky HP influence post this unsettled rather stormy period we're currently enduring. The difference by the middle of January will likely be weather fronts attempting to push in from the Atlantic bringing the potential for snow to many locations as they try to push their way through against the cold air in-situ. "By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January." A side note, a real novice-y question, but I assume the ECM 0z operational outputs actually refer to the forecast conditions at that hour, ie. the forecast conditions at midnight our time each set of runs, so, therefore, project overnight 850s and the like. Begs the question, do all other charts do the same and also when referencing such charts, we all need to be mindful of this? As I said, I guess I've answered my own doubts here but it, therefore, proves the only way of seeing the model's progression through time is by comparing like with like. 0x with 0z 850s, 12z with 12z etc.
  23. Yuk. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-12-30&lat=51.401&lon=-1.3216 Roll on the colder wintry interludes during 2018. Happy New Year all.
  24. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - heading into 2018

    Two shorter-term dates for the diaries, as the ones to watch (assuming you are in cold snow-loving camp). Wednesday 3rd January Friday 5th January Before that, a fair bit of "everything bar the kitchen sink". Have a great New Year all. By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January.