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gottolovethisweather

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Everything posted by gottolovethisweather

  1. For a definition of where FI or the unreliable forecast options begin, one should have a glance at the netweather guides to reading the enembles. For my opinion on this, read below. The reliable is never a static position either, with FI, i.e. the non-reliable for surface observations is said to be starting at around D5 right now, according to some respectable members in here. The reasoning behind this is that suggestions of Shannon Entropy are at play. The best guide is to look at the GEFS or ECM ensembles and see where the most significant divergence of options begins, as it is at that timeframe that the unreliable and FI starts.
  2. You should do news reports on the Beeb with all that detail. I agree with all you say. Off to check my 9 am snow cover. EDIT: 140mm now so broadly speaking, 5 1/2 inches, lost half an inch since last evening. The slow melt continues once the AT rises high enough.
  3. Firstly we had the jet diving way south of us. A snow-covered near-continent meant winds from that direction would feed us the right conditions for producing extra quantities of snow. A succession of frontal features was embedded within the surface low, and the initial one took an age to reach all parts, so in effect did stall catching forecasters out. The precipitation was also heavy enough to sustain snow instead of sleet for large areas of the region. All of this should tell us that meteorology is a learning curve every day and the pros are not infallible, it is Mother Nature playing games with us after all. The overnight warnings were correct for my region, as they stated it would last all day Friday in effect, but why they downgraded them to a Yellow warning by morning, I don't know.
  4. Garden birds sorted. Snow cleared from feeding surfaces, fed, water topped up, fat blocks and mealworms replenished. B*%$^r that being a bird in this weather. Another good inch has fallen I'd say since my 9 am observation.
  5. Still falling lightly as per many others and we have an approximate snow cover of 50mm here in Newbury at 9 am. AP at 984.6mb still plenty low enough for a whole day's worth of intermittent snow around. It will be quite a memorable event to look back on, I reckon.
  6. See my previous in relation to Knocker's Fax chart post previously. The Fax Charts are updated during the actual weather event itself as new information is fed in, hence the extended warnings to late afternoon tomorrow for some. Don't go thinking we're due hours and hours of heavy snow but do be thinking, most of us will wake up to a wintry scene by the morning with some parts getting more than previously anticipated. AT in Newbury now -0.2c DP -2.8c and AP 983mb and slowly falling. As to who, where, when and how much I still favour the regions mentioned in my post below for the heaviest snowfalls and accumulations. Who will get the highest snow depths?
  7. Replaced with a yellow one for my neck of the woods and snow symbols and a new weather warning of snow and ice right through to 5 pm tomorrow afternoon. Plenty more surprises to come methinks, with more precipitation heading into Cornwall overnight as well.
  8. That Fax Chart as posted by Knocker is a thing of beauty, what a rare opportunity this has turned into for some of us. A good few inches in selected prone spots overnight and into tomorrow, a day of intermittent snow continuing for some parts then as well. Note the two surface lows and frontal features, one or two of which were unexpected I believe. Fax Chart post by Knocker
  9. You, sir, are a star! Love your input to this thread. Although, many are disappointed thus far including me in Newbury, the wait will shortly be over.
  10. Another five minutes at most if your readings are accurate.
  11. Just started, oh so light, but thankfully no wet stuff mixed in here. AT 0.7c, DP -2.0c and AP 984.4mb falling slowly. All of this is heading the right way but where will the precipitation band end up? Quite a widespread event for the South for once which is good to see.
  12. Check the UKMO radar as per my posted image above.
  13. I think you're slightly ahead of yourself. The snow will fall quite heavily around Benson, assuming it reaches there and my part of the world in the next couple of hours.
  14. Over the next hour or so it will snow readily in most parts I would say judging by this, it is pepping up. I expect larger falls (say 3-4 inches plus) likely over the Mendips, Cotswold and North and South Downs tonight upcoming. It is very slow moving which is good news as far as those wanting some snow cover are concerned.
  15. As long as AJ and the rest of us all get our beer and kebabs all will be well in good ole Blighty. I just feel sorry for the farmers trying to farm kebabs in these inclement conditions, a hard packed cover of six inches of snow does them no good at all.
  16. Just like Brexit, it is still coming, and even a Corbyn government cannot stop either from happening.
  17. I think it means a pepping up of the precipitation and more likelihood of a more prolonged spell. But I'm sure Karlos will clarify that?
  18. Hopefully not a splash then or a lot of us will be slashing ...... over lashings of splashy stuff, here's to a snowbound lock-in at the local or knowing our luck, a post-Brexit ports, shops and government lockdown.
  19. That question brings about a proverbial minefield. I would genuinely advise against non-essential travel tomorrow either way.
  20. My Air Pressure reading is quite decent too, 989.2mb and falling slowly. Plenty of factors which are encouraging for a proper event now I reckon. Will not start until past 6 pm IMBY but the sky looks such a snow-filled one, and the garden birds are feeding avidly as well.
  21. I think as always in situations like these they'll be reliant on field observations, i.e. our forum posts, for example. Today feels like a quickly changing and still developing event and one which could yet yield much more snow than initially anticipated. Maybe several inches will fall on a local level now I reckon. The latter is more of a hunch than anything else, but what you're stating adds to that outside possibility. I sincerely hope the rain/sleet element is negligible, so most get to join in, in fun.
  22. Bang on where FI begins, will it be a case of westerlies or easterlies by the end of next week? We'll find out in a few runs time I guess.
  23. Only going on what I heard on TV, a front is invading us from the west I believe, aka the start of the currently forecast milder/near average blip. Think rain, sleet and snow mix as per today and tomorrow.
  24. Yes, I think Hampshire, Essex and Sussex could do particularly well out of this, several inches of cover perhaps. I'm expecting maybe a couple of inches IMBY. The next 36 hours or so is an exciting watch period, as may well be Sunday.
  25. If at all. But yes, sadly for the cold hunters who seem to have had to hunt proper cold all winter long, next week will likely see a return to westerlies and some rain around, complete with near to average temperatures. Ho hum but at least travel disruption will be much less of an issue.
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