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Everything posted by gottolovethisweather
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Was attempting to read the thread for the first time in two to three days and well, a few assumptions going on as always it seems. A lot of posts from numerous people in here over recent days claiming bitter cold, or unseasonal warmth, what will occur around the Easter weekend will probably be the atypical Spring season setup if truth be told. The weather will deliver what it wants to, but rarely do the charts at t+144 hours (akin to t+12,840 minutes or something like it) verify at the SURFACE anyway, so a lesson to be learned there. So, again, if one is confused as I have been, especially considering I haven't seen a long-ranger on the BBC either, I'll go for my assumption above or my best guess below. Cloudy nearer the East coast, best of the sunshine and warmest out West. Several downpours for central, southern and eastern parts initially early to middle of the upcoming working week then drying up and becoming settled away from the far North in the run up to Easter weekend. Cloud amounts for all, UNPREDICTABLE at this range. Best Wishes gottolovethisweather
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Cold hunt - models and chat
gottolovethisweather replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
For a definition of where FI or the unreliable forecast options begin, one should have a glance at the netweather guides to reading the enembles. For my opinion on this, read below. The reliable is never a static position either, with FI, i.e. the non-reliable for surface observations is said to be starting at around D5 right now, according to some respectable members in here. The reasoning behind this is that suggestions of Shannon Entropy are at play. The best guide is to look at the GEFS or ECM ensembles and see where the most significant divergence of options begins, as it is at that timeframe that the unreliable and FI starts. -
Firstly we had the jet diving way south of us. A snow-covered near-continent meant winds from that direction would feed us the right conditions for producing extra quantities of snow. A succession of frontal features was embedded within the surface low, and the initial one took an age to reach all parts, so in effect did stall catching forecasters out. The precipitation was also heavy enough to sustain snow instead of sleet for large areas of the region. All of this should tell us that meteorology is a learning curve every day and the pros are not infallible, it is Mother Nature playing games with us after all. The overnight warnings were correct for my region, as they stated it would last all day Friday in effect, but why they downgraded them to a Yellow warning by morning, I don't know.
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See my previous in relation to Knocker's Fax chart post previously. The Fax Charts are updated during the actual weather event itself as new information is fed in, hence the extended warnings to late afternoon tomorrow for some. Don't go thinking we're due hours and hours of heavy snow but do be thinking, most of us will wake up to a wintry scene by the morning with some parts getting more than previously anticipated. AT in Newbury now -0.2c DP -2.8c and AP 983mb and slowly falling. As to who, where, when and how much I still favour the regions mentioned in my post below for the heaviest snowfalls and accumulations. Who will get the highest snow depths?
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That Fax Chart as posted by Knocker is a thing of beauty, what a rare opportunity this has turned into for some of us. A good few inches in selected prone spots overnight and into tomorrow, a day of intermittent snow continuing for some parts then as well. Note the two surface lows and frontal features, one or two of which were unexpected I believe. Fax Chart post by Knocker
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Over the next hour or so it will snow readily in most parts I would say judging by this, it is pepping up. I expect larger falls (say 3-4 inches plus) likely over the Mendips, Cotswold and North and South Downs tonight upcoming. It is very slow moving which is good news as far as those wanting some snow cover are concerned.
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I think as always in situations like these they'll be reliant on field observations, i.e. our forum posts, for example. Today feels like a quickly changing and still developing event and one which could yet yield much more snow than initially anticipated. Maybe several inches will fall on a local level now I reckon. The latter is more of a hunch than anything else, but what you're stating adds to that outside possibility. I sincerely hope the rain/sleet element is negligible, so most get to join in, in fun.
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Cold hunt - models and chat
gottolovethisweather replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Bang on where FI begins, will it be a case of westerlies or easterlies by the end of next week? We'll find out in a few runs time I guess. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
gottolovethisweather replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Only going on what I heard on TV, a front is invading us from the west I believe, aka the start of the currently forecast milder/near average blip. Think rain, sleet and snow mix as per today and tomorrow.