gottolovethisweather

Thanks, @s4lancia

Someone please a QTR as there is no explanation link under this term? MOD team can this be updated for folks like me who are only dipping in and out these days. I'm guessing it's something to do with stratospheric processes.

Agreed

Well, the Blue-fin Tuna are arriving so hope springs eternal. Hunch, nothing more nothing less really, the second week of January so D10 through D14 is where we should be looking for repeating trends, I reckon.

I'm going for this as the way forward, more models perhaps clinging onto this approach in the mid-term as we get nearer New Year's day. Blocked by Atlantic High due West of us and winds backing North to NorthEast (maybe Easterly) by end of the first working week of January.

So winds will be stuck coming at us in a sw'rly or westerly flow from now til April? The switch around in our fortunes will arrive during the first week of January. Patience, Grasshopper! Yes, this period of nothingness is quite good for people travelling out and about in fairness, drone attacks aside. It may feel like we're maybe eating up time but the drier it gets underfoot (sun's out here) the chillier the ground, the harsher the frosts eventually become and that's way better for snow events down the road than sodden flooded landscapes.

Going back through the Annuls of time, a change to polar type air come Boxing Day is one heck of a repeating trend. So, even having not viewed the outputs people speak of, I'm relying on you good people to update me as I dip in and out of here of late, I reckon a Boxing Day change of pattern has a 75/25 per cent chance of verifying. A mildish Christmas Day on my patch I suspect under ridge conditions and then a front travelling southwards come the 26th would be my bet now. The HP cell I feel will be sitting to the west of the UK at this juncture and hopefully, the flow will be from the North or Northeast

To be honest, we should expect nothing more, or nothing less when it comes snowcasting. Incidentally, has the forecast not changed again? More focus now on the weekend happenings. It'll likely be transitional in nature but the cold air is set to stay longer than originally predicted by the NWP suites even just two days ago. By the end of the weekend, it'll be game over and onto looking into the longer-term developments around the Xmas period.

One word sums next week up, having just watched the Beeb 10-dayer. Whether (or should that read weather), it's the politics or weather for the upcoming week, it is.... UNCERTAINTY

Late Wednesday into Thursday is the day of the big battle, 60/40 possibility of some short-lived transient snowfalls around then I'd suggest. The on-the-ground specifics as to who gets it and how much will only be answered as late as Wednesday, as that snow is such an oh-so-tricky thing to forecast, but it's coming to a few of us.

Top post. Thanks, Catacol.

Decision Day. I'm on a countryside walk, come public house hunt that day, it should be dry on the outside that day, chilly with abundant sunshine. Might be some sleety flakes and hill snow around next week in places as well. The evening runs of the ECM and UKMO are especially important tonight for anyone chasing snowflakes. Deep cold unlikely but chilly to colder than average Temps look like ruling the roost for much of next week. It's all about the D4 and D5 charts from four to five days ago coming to fruition, will it go our way?

I'm willing to agree on your comment "High pressure will build this weekend turning things colder, good support for high pressure to extend and build across Scandinavia thereafter." As I mentioned last Monday, there was a growing consensus even then, that between the inter/intra-model runs, the GFS, in particular, wanted to bring in HP dominance around December 6th through to 10th or thereabouts. As for deep cold, we need the ECM D9 and D10 charts showing such scenarios to be there at D4 or D5 in my experience, which means by the end of this working week, we will KNOW whether SNOW is something worth shouting about, for the run-up to the middle of December. Winter proper appears to be lurking close-by.

I have not been viewing the NWP outputs myself, just relying on you guys but little has changed in my mind from my thoughts this past Monday. A drier, potentially colder than average period of weather could well be heading our way by the end of the next working week. Who knows what week two and the middle of December might offer us? But all eyes on the 10-15 dayers from here on in. Beggars cannot be choosers as my thoughts are well known over the weekend wobbles, but I just hope these charts are still showing some cold/very cold solutions come Monday and Tuesday. Bring on something crisp, sunny and cold please, weather gods, 15 to 16c down South today and tomorrow by Christ!

I'm still going for a short period of High-Pressure dominance, akin to UKMO at t+168 if only lasting for a few days. Is there a dry signal backing those charts up as well, come the 2nd week of December?

Ah, those weekend model suite wobbles strike again and again. The trend is our friend and despite not following the model runs myself, I am happy to go with the consensus that the 2nd week of December is where coldies should be focussing their attention, even if it is purely a dry cool/cold settled spell to kick things off. The 10-day plus forecasts on the BBC news channel which I tend to watch religiously should start picking up on such signals later into the week, with cold weather getting a mention again.

Particularly so in the heart of Winter, late December through to early February. Oh, the horrific memories of the thirty-nine (yes, it was 39) Atlantic depressions that most of the UK endured from October through to March I think it was, back in 2013/14. Please no, no, never again and I don't even live on the coast. That recent winter! The above reason is precisely why I'm firmly in the traditional cold but crisp or snowy camp and probably always will be, plus the memories of the late 80s and most of the 1990s haunt me too.

You want dry, preferably not windy weather, where have you been all year? As is the want of the British climate, your day will be anything but what you expect I guess, but more hopefully what you want it to be.

It is such an odd pattern right now, so much so I heard a BBC Forecaster, possibly Nick Miller? state how unusual it was, synoptically speaking. So with that in mind, I wouldn't take anything beyond the weekend as set in stone, until say, Friday/Saturday when we might know where the rest of next week is heading. Is Shannon Entrophy at play in the modelling I wonder? Either way, wet snow today in parts of the Isle of Wight even, they can go whole winters without seeing some as well.

Great artistry, that is good @evans1892

And so it proved to be, talk of some sleet and snow showers on the mainstream media next week and not specifically at height or up in prone Northern areas either. A fascinating week ahead for coldies, if nothing overly dramatic, at least it's a start.

Is this a Brexit exit post? Speaking of the Eastern block and perhaps the best is NorthWest Europe. Beware the release of the Beast, come late November into December? Hopefully, the long-range uncertainty will be sorted by then in the models and in political circles.

Looks very much like a right ole.. then @Frosty. Mixed Bag

Indeed, as before, underdoing Maximums, so at the extreme end, by Friday, I expect we'll see a 32c to 33c around somewhere. After that, might get warmer still. The first ten days of August was always a period to watch, as it was in 2003 and it could be a case of history repeating if not to the same levels, but still something noteworthy.

Apologies for replying to my own post, but like most coldies rarely do I post in here in Summer. But, yes, the above still applies and far too many in here, stick to the models' temperature forecasts and don't seem to appreciate that they are merely guesses, the reality at t+24, t+72 or t+360 hours is always an unknown. Mid-range temps, say D3 to D6 are often out by two or three degrees, hence Monday's maxes were two days before, predicted to be lower yet 33c was breached. Mine and your gut feeling of past heatwave experiences, climate or even basic weather knowledge and the appreciation of the conditions, here and now, can allow you to make a reasonable judgement. With the Beeb on board with a max temp 34c/35c prediction for Thursday, my attention now turns to the end of July and first ten days of August, I'm thinking the dry Europe heat sink conditions will spread northwards and such maximums will be repeated and potentially exceeded. 36c on the cards in the next 15 days? Watch this space!