gottolovethisweather

Yes, I think Hampshire, Essex and Sussex could do particularly well out of this, several inches of cover perhaps. I'm expecting maybe a couple of inches IMBY. The next 36 hours or so is an exciting watch period, as may well be Sunday.

If at all. But yes, sadly for the cold hunters who seem to have had to hunt proper cold all winter long, next week will likely see a return to westerlies and some rain around, complete with near to average temperatures. Ho hum but at least travel disruption will be much less of an issue.

Talking of swingometers. I voted to remain and I'm now happy we're leaving. The Air Temperature earlier maxed out at 6c when Brexit talk was getting heated in parliament, it's now 1.9c and falling quickly, as is the snow. The only thing in life is that there are no certainties except death and taxes. As to the longer-term, 48:52 is about right. 1.7c now, told you the Temperature is plummeting rather quickly. Back to the here and now and those important votes, will it snow or will it rain Thursday IMBY?

Your posts are restoring my faith big-time, keep it up. The good thing is you know what you're talking about as well, as netweather's prominent chief forecaster. My assumptions about next week were based around the Beeb 10-dayers and a few recent model runs but...... could the cold hang on instead of being pushed aside, I guess with full snow cover around in places, it may well win the day. Conversely, there are other respectable types on here calling for a very special February, so I'm equally mindful of that. Fascinating days ahead either way.

Some do and did. And sadly, I think it may well be the form horse too, although colder interludes with wintry showers behind the rain bands are undoubtedly possible. Before then, much cold to talk about, if no Beasts From The East there's always Brexit to fall back on.

Isn't that how politicians work, anyhow? Of course, some might also want to change votes on something already voted on two years ago as well. I want snow, no, I voted for rain, can I have sleet then?

It certainly is looking like it is warming up, well not cold as per this week, by about the 4th February, which seems to be a consistent signal for now. Before then, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps another day or two bringing us all a wintry mix. Something for everyone in the next ten days then?

This model ICON everyone quotes, what did it used to be known as? Sounds new to me?

My inkling is as the front drags its feet into Wednesday morning, the SE, say Essex and Kent would be highly favoured for a decent covering too.

Sounds like typical Brexit type weather Tuesday or is that just a coincidence, aye Mrs May? As for those saying these charts aren't worth getting excited about, down South, these events sure are, and the marginal ones bring the biggest surprises and dumps of snow IMHO. I need the dream charts to be showing it snowing tomorrow as well, before caution can be thrown to the wind, as well I reckon.

Ok. We have the following named lows, sadly no highs until the Euro Lack of heights is agreed. Brexit Plan A low Brexit Plan B low Polar Maritime No deal low Tropical Maritime leavers deal low Polar Maritime slowly filling crash out low Hope that covers things, some of these are in fact in development despite modelling concerns but all will be resolved by next Tuesday when Shannon Entrophy (a true remoaner) has left the room. Best Wishes GLTTW

Indeed. The Beeb showed snow showers by way of their symbols post-front too and also mentioned snow chances on Wednesday as well.

The thing is, too few or too many cherries don't make Beasts From The East an every year event or even five to ten-year. One should look at the past in part when predicting the future and t+10080 minute charts *(yes, that really is only seven days) and beyond predicting Snowmageddon don't really do it for me, they never have! WIth my feet firmly on the ground, I learn to enjoy the reliable and accept it may well be correct but beyond this, I order truckloads of salt when viewing such charts.

I think that Roger knows a thing or two, so I say yes, and probably when we least expect it. I'll be back when the Easterly prospects get reinstated once again, which means tomorrow. NWP output upgrades next week, methinks.

Agreed but things haven't actually gone wrong until said timeframes have passed. @CreweCold at which timeframe is our cold spell going down the pan, just curious as I often trust your judgement but equally will refuse to throw in the towel until next week anyhow. A cold ole week next week and with snow around then who knows?

Nick F a boom-booming, wow! I've clearly got some reading up to do, but we coldies seem happy enough. Should you get the time, I'd love a one-off blog post for us all to digest? If you're on the boom uptake, must be good!

I've been a tad too busy to catch up with this thread but will look now, but is my option above still on the cards. Likewise, I need to hear a BBC long-ranger for once, with immediate wintry prospects a bit meh, surely next week into the end of January will deliver snowy scenes?

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

Steady as she goes, the next few days runs will be crucial, D6 for a long time has been where all the fun and games start to kick off. Equally, I'm liking the tendency for one or two charts hinting at 0c Maximums down in Central Southern England by then, definitely brrr. Need a few days to nail the snowier prospects yet though but I think many are likely to see some within 10 to 14 days if not before, I would think.

Don't laugh at it, get the snow shovel out. Might well happen following after our upcoming UK government shutdown and Europe sends their weather our way. Two predictions in one for you all there.

Could well be the start of a pattern reset, I'd say with the Atlantic dead as a dodo. Northeasterly and Easterlies much more prevalent as we head deeper into the backend of January. I believe this signal will show up even stronger in the modelling as next week progresses as the ensembles (especially at the beginnings of FI and beyond) spreads have already hinted at the possibilities from time to time. I'm certainly happy that no drastic turnarounds have turned up in the often oh so irrelevant weekend outputs and that the COLD is on target.

You're quite likely to suffer the weekend wobbles as well, Dolly. I'll take notice of the outputs once they start firming up (ooerr matron) again, come Monday.

Mine's the 21st, snowed in 2018 and had a brief settling, this could be very different but will wait and see, a long way to go. Get the cold in and worry about the specifics once here. Happy Birthday for the 22nd.

Two shows for the price of one and hopefully more shows means more snow. A fascinating time to be interested in this learning game, that is meteorology.

Snow is being mentioned in the media forecasts, in the mid to longer-range. Moreover, they quote it as "wintry weather", quite rightly so given it's at the realms of FI and the surface-level specifics (will it, won't it snow) are guesswork at that range right now. The fact they are giving mention of it hints to me, that the beginning of FI (where model divergence is rife and spreads are all over the place) is around about next Friday, so D6 or D7. All to play for beyond this timeframe as well but the first snowfalls will come through next week for a few of us and then hopefully the snow risk will increase further still into FI.