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    Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
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    Not in any particular order, the following: Ornithology, Natural History, Amateur Meteorology, Phenology, Blogging, Varied Research, Reading Books and Music.
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional

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  1. Was attempting to read the thread for the first time in two to three days and well, a few assumptions going on as always it seems. A lot of posts from numerous people in here over recent days claiming bitter cold, or unseasonal warmth, what will occur around the Easter weekend will probably be the atypical Spring season setup if truth be told. The weather will deliver what it wants to, but rarely do the charts at t+144 hours (akin to t+12,840 minutes or something like it) verify at the SURFACE anyway, so a lesson to be learned there. So, again, if one is confused as I have been, especially considering I haven't seen a long-ranger on the BBC either, I'll go for my assumption above or my best guess below. Cloudy nearer the East coast, best of the sunshine and warmest out West. Several downpours for central, southern and eastern parts initially early to middle of the upcoming working week then drying up and becoming settled away from the far North in the run up to Easter weekend. Cloud amounts for all, UNPREDICTABLE at this range. Best Wishes gottolovethisweather
  2. For a definition of where FI or the unreliable forecast options begin, one should have a glance at the netweather guides to reading the enembles. For my opinion on this, read below. The reliable is never a static position either, with FI, i.e. the non-reliable for surface observations is said to be starting at around D5 right now, according to some respectable members in here. The reasoning behind this is that suggestions of Shannon Entropy are at play. The best guide is to look at the GEFS or ECM ensembles and see where the most significant divergence of options begins, as it is at that timeframe that the unreliable and FI starts.
  3. You should do news reports on the Beeb with all that detail. I agree with all you say. Off to check my 9 am snow cover. EDIT: 140mm now so broadly speaking, 5 1/2 inches, lost half an inch since last evening. The slow melt continues once the AT rises high enough.
  4. Firstly we had the jet diving way south of us. A snow-covered near-continent meant winds from that direction would feed us the right conditions for producing extra quantities of snow. A succession of frontal features was embedded within the surface low, and the initial one took an age to reach all parts, so in effect did stall catching forecasters out. The precipitation was also heavy enough to sustain snow instead of sleet for large areas of the region. All of this should tell us that meteorology is a learning curve every day and the pros are not infallible, it is Mother Nature playing games with us after all. The overnight warnings were correct for my region, as they stated it would last all day Friday in effect, but why they downgraded them to a Yellow warning by morning, I don't know.
  5. Garden birds sorted. Snow cleared from feeding surfaces, fed, water topped up, fat blocks and mealworms replenished. B*%$^r that being a bird in this weather. Another good inch has fallen I'd say since my 9 am observation.
  6. Still falling lightly as per many others and we have an approximate snow cover of 50mm here in Newbury at 9 am. AP at 984.6mb still plenty low enough for a whole day's worth of intermittent snow around. It will be quite a memorable event to look back on, I reckon.
  7. See my previous in relation to Knocker's Fax chart post previously. The Fax Charts are updated during the actual weather event itself as new information is fed in, hence the extended warnings to late afternoon tomorrow for some. Don't go thinking we're due hours and hours of heavy snow but do be thinking, most of us will wake up to a wintry scene by the morning with some parts getting more than previously anticipated. AT in Newbury now -0.2c DP -2.8c and AP 983mb and slowly falling. As to who, where, when and how much I still favour the regions mentioned in my post below for the heaviest snowfalls and accumulations. Who will get the highest snow depths?
  8. Replaced with a yellow one for my neck of the woods and snow symbols and a new weather warning of snow and ice right through to 5 pm tomorrow afternoon. Plenty more surprises to come methinks, with more precipitation heading into Cornwall overnight as well.
  9. That Fax Chart as posted by Knocker is a thing of beauty, what a rare opportunity this has turned into for some of us. A good few inches in selected prone spots overnight and into tomorrow, a day of intermittent snow continuing for some parts then as well. Note the two surface lows and frontal features, one or two of which were unexpected I believe. Fax Chart post by Knocker
  10. You, sir, are a star! Love your input to this thread. Although, many are disappointed thus far including me in Newbury, the wait will shortly be over.
  11. Just started, oh so light, but thankfully no wet stuff mixed in here. AT 0.7c, DP -2.0c and AP 984.4mb falling slowly. All of this is heading the right way but where will the precipitation band end up? Quite a widespread event for the South for once which is good to see.
  12. I think you're slightly ahead of yourself. The snow will fall quite heavily around Benson, assuming it reaches there and my part of the world in the next couple of hours.
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