gottolovethisweather

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About gottolovethisweather

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    gottolovethisweather
  • Birthday 21/01/72

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Interests
    Not in any particular order, the following: Ornithology, Natural History, Amateur Meteorology, Phenology, Blogging, Varied Research, Reading Books and Music.
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional

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  1. See my post last night in response to Summer Sun. As the saying goes, more runs needed, especially true when the models get the weekend wobbles. We'll have more idea by Monday evening's ECM as to where February might end, whether cooler, drier or milder as now and unsettled. I suspect tonight's ECM will revert back to a cooler spell from 23rd onwards for a number of days as it was steadfast in suggesting such a scenario early to midway through this week. I don't watch the GFS anymore so cannot comment on what that expected for next week.
  2. 22nd February onwards, remains one to watch. Wouldn't trust anything at D8 or beyond so yes, there is hope for coldies judging on Summer Sun's graph. The day or two SS refers to my eyes is from D6 through to D8 so after that is clearly FI, all to play for then. Mild and very Mild briefly at first then cooler to slightly below average (think wintry showers perhaps?). I also concur fully with Phil NW's post up thread, a sound analysis as ever.
  3. Was just thinking the same, The slower trickling transition from winter to spring is as kind as it gets for Mother Nature and the farming sector, so that in itself might not be a bad thing. Yes, I would like to see another roll of the dice for wintry synoptics, and personally, I think we are more likely to receive one than not, but it has been a kind weather season so far, and that trend might continue into spring. The 22nd February onwards for a few days thereafter is still a tentative WATCH period for me.
  4. I've got my eyes on that trend too. It's truly only a trend if it remains steadfast and is still there in another three to four days time down into t+96 timeframes or thereabouts. Even if the ECM drops it on a run or two, it is something to bear in mind. Alongside other global factors and upper air dynamics mentioned by others, around about the 22nd February onwards could be a cold synoptics WATCH alert for me. Winter is not done with yet!
  5. Another snow falling day. I suspect as I mentioned in my MOD thread post a couple of days back, the hills will get something that settles but sadly, the rest of us frustratingly have Dew Points the wrong side of zero. Added to that, wet surfaces, I do at least, here in Newbury. Tonight's event was recently downplayed as a wintry mix on a BBC forecast I saw earlier, but that could yet change in our favour, albeit it all turns to rain for most by tomorrow afternoon. A pretty disappointing spell of wintry possibilities in fairness when you consider Air Temperatures have not breached 2c since 21:30 hours on the 8th February at home. Something slightly milder as the new working week wears on.
  6. Some light flurries in Newbury right now, barely coming to anything but at least I can add another rare lowland central Southern England snow day.
  7. Some corking good analyses in here from the usual suspects, so I need not add much more other than to say........... "Baby, it's cold outside" Temperatures are set to progressively fall by day and night over the next four to five days. Afterwards, you have to expect some milder and perhaps unsettled weather to attempt to penetrate our shores. However, I think it's quite likely that the last week of February will end on a bitter note as well. The trend of Easterlies in February has once again bore fruit, and with that, some snow is always likely, especially for parts due North and East and at elevation. Will I receive anything like a snow-fest in central Southern England, perhaps not but the local hills will almost certainly receive a dusting. Will you, my friends, acquire some magical white ice crystals as well? Watch the local forecasts and follow your local threads to find out whether the possibilities are there. For fellow cold-loving fanatics, take care and have fun whilst the cold spell is in attendance. It cannot stay that way forever but the mildies might have a battle on their hands. I'd suggest we don't look beyond D5 in any great detail just yet.
  8. Impressed by the deep cold over us today, only just breached freezing point in Newbury, 0.1c and hovered around those sort of Temperatures all day long. Changeover day tomorrow perhaps? A day later than I expected a week ago.

    1. Nouska

      Nouska

      A raw windchill for early afternoon.

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    2. gottolovethisweather

      gottolovethisweather

      Good gawd, yes. I'm inside in the warm, Thankfully. Even the odd snow flurry possible in places I understand.

    3. Mapantz

      Mapantz

      Temps here, are higher than they were two days ago. I was under fog for nearly 72 hours though.

  9. Wow, a week since I posted in here and back then my eyes were fixed firmly on watching a few flakes fall from the dull looking skies, ended up with a slight dusting which was very welcome but nothing terribly exciting for us snow lovers. Before then, some six days beforehand, my analysis of the ECM had hinted at a watch period from the 12th through to the 16th January, which in reality became cut short by around about a day. Now, having studied the ECM outputs in the meanwhile, I feel we are looking at a mainly cold and dry period down South in particular right through to about the 26th January, of that we can be reasonably sure. An oddly HP dominated settled winter we have had and continue to have, so anyone looking for wintry stuff might have to back off from the models for another week yet until any likely changes come into realistic timeframes. Personally, I don't mind these conditions at least where the winter sunshine breaks through, and sparkly crisp frosts persist throughout in some parts of the local countryside and even in the shaded back garden. Another cold day today with Air Temperatures struggling below 3c as a Maximum in Newbury and the highest Temperatures not breaching 6c over the past few days. Expect more of the same for now. My comments above concerning the wildlife etc. still applies so please think of them as, and when you're able to, despite this being chilly at home, of course, it is nothing like compared to most of Europe right now where it is brutally cold in places.
  10. Park the BM and get a lift from someone in a 4x4, another ouch.
  11. Settling on all surfaces now, AT not far from freezing level by the rush hour, ouch. Still some life in this depression yet and I would expect a fair amount of snow over parts of the SE over the coming few hours.
  12. Readily turning to wet snow now, down to 1.7c AT and I guess there is another hour or two of precipitation to come for those in central locations too. Will be a dodgy commute later for a great number of people, please stay safe one and all.
  13. Now sleet In Newbury. 2.8c AT, 2c DP.
  14. Being further East than most in here, I like the sound of that, Singularity. Understandably, there is a certain level of trepidation in here with regards, snow predictions but I'd say the precipitation is clearing SE more slowly than the latest media forecasts indicate, increasing the window of opportunity for many more of us, especially those with elevation on their side. 3.4c and falling plus a falling rapidly barometer trend according to my Davis.
  15. 3.9c AT, 3c DP. Barely an hour ago it was 5.4c, I'd suggest the wind has shifted but can't confirm this as my anemometer is knackered.