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About gottolovethisweather

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    Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Interests
    Not in any particular order, the following: Ornithology, Natural History, Amateur Meteorology, Phenology, Blogging, Varied Research, Reading Books and Music.
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional

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  1. And so it proved to be, talk of some sleet and snow showers on the mainstream media next week and not specifically at height or up in prone Northern areas either. A fascinating week ahead for coldies, if nothing overly dramatic, at least it's a start.
  2. Is this a Brexit exit post? Speaking of the Eastern block and perhaps the best is NorthWest Europe. Beware the release of the Beast, come late November into December? Hopefully, the long-range uncertainty will be sorted by then in the models and in political circles.
  3. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Looks very much like a right ole.. then @Frosty. Mixed Bag
  4. 14c at 1pm, forget summer, or even autumn, could be one of those gloomier mild winter's day, lol. The heat will return, some ten degrees warmer in a couple of days time most probably. Talk about the ups and downs of our modern climate.

    1. Mapantz


      19.6°C here. 🌞

    2. gottolovethisweather


      Lucky b*&^"r, but yes, I can now see blue skies, so things could be a-turning, not complaining though, my house is appreciating the cooler air.

    3. Alice1991


      I like hot sunny weather, but I was beginning to get a little bored of it. I wouldn't like to live in a country where it is the same type of weather all year round.

  5. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Indeed, as before, underdoing Maximums, so at the extreme end, by Friday, I expect we'll see a 32c to 33c around somewhere. After that, might get warmer still. The first ten days of August was always a period to watch, as it was in 2003 and it could be a case of history repeating if not to the same levels, but still something noteworthy.
  6. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Apologies for replying to my own post, but like most coldies rarely do I post in here in Summer. But, yes, the above still applies and far too many in here, stick to the models' temperature forecasts and don't seem to appreciate that they are merely guesses, the reality at t+24, t+72 or t+360 hours is always an unknown. Mid-range temps, say D3 to D6 are often out by two or three degrees, hence Monday's maxes were two days before, predicted to be lower yet 33c was breached. Mine and your gut feeling of past heatwave experiences, climate or even basic weather knowledge and the appreciation of the conditions, here and now, can allow you to make a reasonable judgement. With the Beeb on board with a max temp 34c/35c prediction for Thursday, my attention now turns to the end of July and first ten days of August, I'm thinking the dry Europe heat sink conditions will spread northwards and such maximums will be repeated and potentially exceeded. 36c on the cards in the next 15 days? Watch this space!
  7. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    I agree. The tv forecasts for today showing 32c or perhaps 33c as a maximum temperature and with no let up in the reliable, 34c or 35c will surely be reachable, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. Short-term upgrades in temperatures are often unforeseen in the NWP outputs for whatever reason, the same goes for extreme minimums in winter to my mind. As for next week and beyond, I'll leave that to the others.
  8. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    The word for today in the model outlook is...... FURNACE, aye, aye Captain Shortwave. The heat is on! I'm expecting upgrades to media forecasts covering a range of Maximum temperatures nearer to 35/36c as I previously mentioned, likely equating to 21-23c overnight minimums in the extreme instances. Not my cup of tea, that sort of setup, but it is what it is and the weather will do, what it does and does do extremes a lot these days.
  9. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Or BOTH. 35 to 36c on the cards for a one or two locations I'd suggest. Much respect to SM for highlighting this probability with one of his rare summer forays into the forum, way back earlier this month.
  10. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    It is the longevity of the dryness that is the problem as far as I know. Everything in nature is thirsty, all crops and livestock need a constant supply. Plus, these days the extremes don't lend themselves to a situation which helps farming or nature in general. It is a very different climate and world to that of 1976, think overpopulated lands and the problems these bring with them and you'll see what I mean. A few hours of steady prolonged light to moderate rainfall over all parts of the UK right now would be most helpful but that will not be happening any day soon. Still, enjoy the weather for what it is, I say, a memorable summer and one for the record books.
  11. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Looking increasingly fine and warm where cloud cover dissipates, [email protected] As far as I know, this is what the backbiting and snide remarks revolve around (not from you personally as you're above all that). Past history and over numerous occasions in recent weeks, it has remained cloudy, murky or of a similar description and cool for most of the day. Which of course, contrasts deeply with what was actually forecast for a specific location, i.e. sunny and warm. I have travelled widely in southern England during this timeframe for my job and the forecast was a bust on numerous occasions. Don't take the model outputs as SAID, some forecasts WILL be wide off the mark, yet most will hopefully get the dry, sunny and warm weather they deserve. Be careful out and about in Storm Hector tomorrow and overnight, people.
  12. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    And link that to additional daytime detritus from overnight storms (which have been pretty ferocious and amazing to boot for May) and it is a gloomfest for parts inland as well.
  13. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    This was a requote of my own understanding of the forecast synoptics six days back and the threat of it becoming a recurring setup. Well, it turned out to be very accurate, not that I begrudge others of plentiful sunshine or storms.
  14. gottolovethisweather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Yes, saw that on the Beeb earlier. Weird weather patterns and from Tamara's post up thread and that of seasoned others, not a lot of change in the coming days. Whilst, risking another moan, I urge people not to use specifics such as lovely, gorgeous or whatever in their postings as clearly, unless the cloud actually clears, regional differences will be vast. Frosty's quote "the devil will be in the detail" could have been in use for many days of late and is most pertinent, given the endless gloom descended on Newbury the last few days.