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About gottolovethisweather

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  • Birthday 21/01/72

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    Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Interests
    Not in any particular order, the following: Ornithology, Natural History, Amateur Meteorology, Phenology, Blogging, Varied Research, Reading Books and Music.
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional

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  1. On the edge of the main precipitation band here and it will certainly snow and potentially settle up on the downs but down in Newbury, it might be a different story. Pleased to see all the snow reports coming in, tis long overdue for many. AT down to 2.8c here now and 84% humidity which translates to a dewpoint of 0.3c. Hoping it stays on the heavy side for a while yet before turning back to rain by morning.
  2. Any analysis forthcoming on tonight's ECM guys n gals. Might be some snow overnight for a few around Central and SE parts, although not much likely to settle. Overall I am pleased with the analysis of my post from Tuesday as I didn't look too far past this week and so far all has gone according to expectations.
  3. Agree with most you say there except the "pointless" reference as that seems a bit harsh to me, all imho.
  4. Indeed, people whether experienced or inexperienced might do well to Google "The Butterfly Effect" aye Phil.
  5. I think it will mainly be snow on the plain and rain or sleet for everyone else as opposed to rain on the plain, lol. The intensity and timing of the precipitation are paramount. Those in more central parts might fare best as most of the wintriness is expected to die a death by early morning tomorrow when it reaches the far Southeast.
  6. How could anyone hate snow after seeing that, pure magic. A truly beautiful video William Grimsley.
  7. I am always concerned when it comes to snow forecasts down in our region and equally, I'd be concerned when you're not concerned about any snow prospects. I take it, your hill got some of those magic white crystals today, Mulls?
  8. I haven't had a chance to check all the reports in here today but further to my post in the MOD thread yesterday linked below, I confirm I had a "snow seen falling" day today alongside a "hail day". Can't be bad, onto Friday for the next action then!
  9. Now I'm getting slightly more excited than I have all through this Winter with regards to wintry precipitation prospects. Note my use of the word "wintry". Over the coming five days perhaps beyond hold almost daily nationwide wintry interest in terms of blizzards at elevation, snow, sleet and ice. Of course, the usual suspects should fare best but there are likely higher chances of brief periods of widespread wintriness this time around. Parts North and West in Scotland and Northern England down to Central regions i.e. the Pennines are almost guaranteed to see some lying snow with thawing by day for many a day to come. Thursday the driest day this week for them. An 80-90% chance of seeing snow falling and perhaps lying especially over higher ground. Parts South and Southwest England can only hope for hilltop snow or overnight events, where snow chances are greater at such a time when parameters fall right. A 50-70% chance of seeing snow falling but only lying briefly at elevation Parts due East might also get lucky for the white stuff over the coming days with tomorrow morning/early hours of Thursday holding their best chances in the near-term. I rate their chances of seeing snow falling at 70-80% with little hope of lying snow, other than at elevation. I hope the above is of interest and my thoughts cover the first half of March in general and are taken from a number of sources from both in here and via some media forecasts. March will have a sting to it (note short-term strong wind potential courtesy of Storm Jake for instance). More especially I think it's safe to say that Spring warmth will be a long time in coming just yet.
  10. No low confidence in Temperature predictions though I'd suggest. It will be cold nationwide, whether it can be deemed very cold is questionable but I've seen projected maximums next week of only 5c down South which is nippy. Of course, these are town/city Temperatures which suggests a cold enough spell for nationwide wintry precipitation if only it were apparent. This prospect in itself feels me with joy and is a good enough reason to be watching this week's forecasting prospects very closely.
  11. Hi Karl, my earlier post wasn't meant as a dig so sorry if it came over that way, just that for us down South, at least in the immediate term I see very little chance of this event producing settled snow. As for your reply here to winterof79 like you, I believe the best chance is when evaporative cooling is at its strongest and that is into the overnight period. The crucial timeframes are from midnight through to 9am on Thursday in my opinion, so whoever sits under the precipitation band at that hour COULD well wake up to a cover of snow. The clock is ticking for this event now and timing and location is key to whether one gets the magic white crystals or one doesn't. As for the medium to longer-term things for coldies might be looking even better, so no point in giving up yet on snow hopes even down in what is largely tropical lowland Southern England.
  12. I don't want to be a killjoy but are these simply not charts showing the precipitation type expected rather than a prediction of snow cover? (granted you've used the word could Karl). The reason I ask is that I forsee the wet snow truly struggling on what will likely be wet surfaces in the first instance. Perhaps it is still possible but away from the South, Southeast and Southwest I'd be shocked to see any snow cover other than possibly at elevation, say above 200m or so. Northern England and NE England in particular, having a strong likelihood of an all snow event hence a much better chance of lying snow there and not exclusively at elevation. An interesting watch anyhow and the excitement building over the snow potential is good viewing in here.
  13. And a couple of lovely crisp cold dry (aside from some wintry showers towards the East) days to start the week, I love Winter. Largely rain during the main mid-week event but back edge snow, especially at elevation cannot be ruled out at three to four days range.
  14. Yes, from the media forecasts I've watched so far, they are expecting back edge snow (most likely from central to Eastern regions based on current thinking) on Wednesday through to Thursday. We shouldn't get too hung up on the specifics as the timeframes of said event are moving and if the cold fronts move in at a pace and catch up with the warm front an occlusion(!) occurs and snow will likely fall more widely. Questions then will be, how much can settle on already saturated ground, the heaviness of the precipitation, where and when and how fast the mixing out of air masses might assist in boosting the snow-making potential. Yep, far too complex and complicated right now to second guess anything with regards to the snow and it'll be a wait and watch until Tuesday for me. The colder that Northerly airflow is beforehand the better. Exciting times ahead, whatever.
  15. Taken at face value, am disappointed at the poor prospects of lowland snow for those of us in Southern and SouthWest England. However, considering this is still at approximately t+6000 minutes range (see my post from last night) I'm happy to note you are considering the uncertainty in what must be quite a difficult and challenging forecast for the professionals. All to play for.