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About gottolovethisweather

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    Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Interests
    Not in any particular order, the following: Ornithology, Natural History, Amateur Meteorology, Phenology, Blogging, Varied Research, Reading Books and Music.
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional

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  1. Or better still the actual weather, they are all but predictions/forecasts after all. But like James Brown, "I feel good" about things, currently as a coldie. I'll await the UKMO 12z and ECM 12z with interest tonight.
  2. Agreed, all coulds, if, buts and maybes. However, I'm liking the trend towards something we haven't seen much of in Novembers past, i.e. something colder than the norm and with some snow potential. I won't even bring up that year we all talk about. Expect the usual inter-model and inter-run upgrades and downgrades and focus on the 0z and 12zs daily, would be my suggestion to the less knowledgeable and experienced forum readers in here. Maybe save a chart or two to your pc, laptop etc. and see if you can see which way things are set to be developing into the end of November and beyond. Here's to the ECM 12z, will it be a moment to celebrate for coldies, even if the actual timeframes are still some days ahead.
  3. Agreed and whilst I'm not one for delving into discussions over deep FI charts, the short-term Synoptics are favouring more of the UK to see November wintriness than during most recent years. The usual suspects will likely see the largest amounts of snowfall with even some temporary accumulations. A right ole wintry mix for the rest of us up to the timeframes denoted by those later charts. We should see a colder than normal November this time around and that in itself is something coldies should be happy to witness, historically-speaking. The ECM version above, denoting a cold continent is much needed if lowland parts of England are to witness their first snows of the season and some further seasonal frosts might also aid the cooling pattern. @Bring Back1962-63's post from last night is an excellent read if any folk had missed it. If you're pushed for time in reading the frantic updates in here, please do check that out.
  4. I suspect it's their idea that Atlantic fronts will be trying to make inroads after Sunday but bumping into cold already in-situ. Kind of what Knocker summarised in his post, but with the usual caveats, D6/D7 and beyond is only to be used as a guide IMHO.
  5. Three days on and the weather developments are pretty much as expected; tomorrow looks both stormier and snowier than might have been imagined though. A genuinely wild day this Thursday with gales down Southern parts especially. Up the far North and potentially into parts of Northern Ireland, there could be some decent falls of snow. I must stop mentioning that word though; I'll start sounding like Nick Windy Miller from last night's long-range tv forecast. What of next week, I hear you say? Interchangeable spells of rain then wintry mixes are the most likely scenario with the driest weather further South. Before that, another cold weekend, in fact, the coldest since last winter, or so it seems, with temperatures struggling below 7c to 8c at best.
  6. See my post from yesterday, @Ali1977kind of what I and many others expected. Baby steps with our eyes set firmly on the prize, longer-term. Keep expectations your relatively low, and we might all get what we want. Well, most of us that is who like the seasonal scenes of years past.
  7. Likewise, me too. Colder and snowier prospects involving a few days, namely Monday and Wednesday for parts of Scotland (not all hilltop stuff either) and potentially parts of Ireland in the following working week. Then by Friday onwards, hints of something much colder heading even further south. Looking back at recent weeks and the run of cold weekends, yes it's been mainly dry down south but with a few more frosts than in the recent past. During one or two of them, they didn't even produce an air frost through the whole of Autumn. We are in a completely different territory this time around. It will feel very mild this coming week, yes and the Atlantic will awaken from its slumber. However, once the troughing fills and heads slowly Northwestwards, the arctic plunge for next weekend (a recurring them) feels nailed on to my mind. D6 and beyond is where it's at, and snow will likely appear in more of the weather headlines as we head towards the end of November. Late November snowfall is not that rare, yet hill snow is probably the best I could wish for these days, given the volatility of our current climate. Over to the regular posters in here for their views and better access to the model outputs than I. Looking forward to winter and all that it may bring. Best Wishes gottolovethisweather
    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Daniel*


      It was not a cold water hurricane however the formation of a major in 25C SSTs is unusually cool

    3. gottolovethisweather


      Potentially fake news then, Daniel or at least not enough adequate fact-checking going on.

    4. Daniel*


      It’s sad the internet is saturated with fake news! 

  8. Keep up, SS. I thought you were always first with the news. Never in a million years, did I think it might come off? Helen Willetts said they're watching things closely at the BBC or words to that effect and that's the first I've heard the Beeb mention it in their forecasts. Will be fascinating to see what develops or doesn't as the case might be.
  9. One thing's for sure, the BBC forecasts from the ones I've watched thus far daren't go there yet it seems with the strongest focus on the impressive rainfall totals (potentially unwelcome, 175mm and counting currently on the highest peaks) and the heat burst shortly afterwards for parts South of Birmingham at the weekend. As to why they won't comment on next week, I think are playing the extra cautious, softly, softly deck of cards and who can blame them. Knocker's posts and yours and a few others besides prove to me, that that is currently a wise move. Fascinating mid-October period of weather, one that will baffle the wildlife as well.
  10. I'm not saying a word but...... thirty years on and the timeframes are broadly similar given the projected dates. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/great-storm Anyway, as an aside and broadly weather-related, so bear with me. Where I ventured birding today, small flocks of Redwings and Fieldfares were seen passing overhead, not far off their normal arrival dates but do give them the heads-up as they MAY wish to head back North soon temporarily to avoid the incoming heatwave and then back South again, shortly afterwards. So in summary, courtesy of the many posts in here, unsettled, more especially towards the North and West, windy if not stormy and cool to average up North and very warm fro time darn South. Next week, eyes on the jetstream and the features aforemnentioned above. A woman just emailed to say "Tony, get off the bleedin weather forums", I replied, "Don't worry, they're won't be another post like this", not simply enough meat on the bones...... Really thhirty years ago next week, blimey o'reilly Until next time, take care all.
  11. I've been lurking on and off for quite a while throughout my busier past few months work-wise, and I thought I'd rear my ugly head once again. Pants second-half to summer really but the rain was much-needed in farmer's fields and for a few other industries, despite it washing out a lot of the wildlife such as butterflies and the like. Autumn has kicked in early, check the local trees and shrubbery near you, tells you all you need to know I guess. Intrigued by Damianslaw's (I think it t'was him) post about the possibilities of this being a bit of a different autumn to what we get normally. My gut feeling makes me believe we will get the usual drier slot just beyond mid-month possibly stretching into late September, especially decent towards the South and South West, but far from dry and often unpleasant for those up North though with plenty of depressions with drenching rains and gales at times. Early season frosts in any drier slots are likely too, I'd say, in what will continue to be a rather chilly flow (when compared to average) for most, pleasant in any sunshine though, of course. October and November will be quite stormy months, I'd suggest, with wintry interludes (sleet, hail, mountain snow) occasionally edging south at times, while brief ridges will often make you think of a certain Crowded House tune, Four Seasons In One Day when any sunshine and drier interludes chase the showers and rainbands away. Best Wishes all. gottolovethisweather
  12. Steady as she goes, we might get 2mm of rain this month at this rate. More dry weather and potentially milder too, come the beginning of May. Temperature heading into single figures now in Newbury, been on the fall broadly speaking since 12:30.

    1. lassie23


      won't be able to use my new hosepipe:closedeyes:

    2. matt111


      I thought the 6mm I've had here was low. :shok:

  13. One word sums up next week. CONVECTION. After all, it is April. Get your cameras out.