Eugene

GFS can't make its mind up over sunday and monday, both days now looking cold and wet on 18Z when it was dry on 12Z. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png Sunday and monday look a nightmare to forecast currently. GFS 18Z brings a high risk of some potentially disruptive snowfall overnight monday night into tuesday morning almost anywhere but especially midlands and north http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1024.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1083.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

lol that is a funny comment PIT regarding ECM being re programmed by GFS former programmers, don't think you have a proper understanding of the way model outputs are produced but funny nonetheless, not really a big change though from previous days ECMWF runs so never take one run in isolation As JMA 12Z is also similar i wont http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif He probably means he wants some some proper settled spring weather where you dont need to worry if it rains or not with light winds clear blue skies and temps into the mid to high teens for the week before Easter

LOL shows just how dull and wet May must be on average to you then, May especially the second half feels much warmer to me than late March with a much more powerful sun. Early this week was cool and sunny in a PM flow and last few days a mild overcast wet TM flow hardly unusual for late March infact.

Yes rob i agree lots of people getting too carried away with the warmth which isnt that warm at all, i do love to see people out in t shirts get a good soaking, i never go out without a coat when LP is about you never know when you might get hit by an unexpected downpour and it really wasnt that warm today anyway with very limited sun and mostly overcast skies.)( the oldies have alot more sense than younger people, saw lots of OAPs with coats today :lol: Looks like we are behind with Spring because the average for the first 20C in the south is 4th of April, well no chance of that on current output and very early April is typically warm no chance of that either.

:lol: More like the day he was born (all 9 years ago) the cooling trend was over He went for 10C for March very wrong and now is going for 12C for April, will be very wrong again, i think he wants the world record for most wrong CET guesses

Tough call is the second half of April, i'll just say even in London wide extremes of weather are still possible mid to to late April from cold days 5C to 9C with lots of sunshine and wintry showers even snowfall in rare instances to very warm almost hot weather with temps in the late 20`s C but that is the highest extreme for that time of year in London, best best would be for temps 12C to 15C with some sunshine, some cloud cover and some rain. I'll tell you nearer the time in more detail :lol: Just one more thing easterlies are quite common in second half of April for the east and southeast of england so it can get quite chilly with overcast skies.

I`m a bit late reading this but i would just like to say what an excellently written and laid out blog entry snowman with plenty of interesting information. I see it was written very early in the month, i would love to hear your thoughts regarding next week and beyond.

lol nowhere did i say in my post that the last cold weather was long ago, just saying it will feel very cold with temps of -2C or lower in a brisk cold arctic northerly wind, ECM 12Z is one for the cold weather fans. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Horrendous conditions here, bound to be some flash flooding and roads badly affected especially when there is still lots of traffic on the roads not good news at all, well at least the people i saw earlier wearing t shirts will get a rude awakening :lol:

Excellent agreement on a cold spell next week on the 12Z ensembles but some runs show more precip around for early next week than the OP so the risk is there for snowfall, UKMO 12Z and GME 12Z both show cold northerlies mid week so some lovely sunshine and convective wintry showers look possible almost anywhere, GFS 12Z has mins of -2C in a breezy northerly so it will feel very cold indeed for end of March into early April

UKMO 12Z looks pretty fine to me whether i like the outcome or not, whats glitchy about it then? I notice GFS 00Z was mild and wet for monday now GFS 12Z pushes the mild air much further south completely missing us, shows that we dont yet know the exact track of that LP system yet as that is quite a big change in 12 hours, you could be crazy to write off snowfall as somewhere between GFS 00Z and GFS 12Z coould produce a big snow event in the midlands and south.

Next week once the low moves through on GFS 00Z would give some lovely crisp sunny weather with wintry convective possibilities. GFS 00Z not a run for the mushyman

No sign of any prolonged settled weather(anticyclonic) apart from the usual teasing from extreme FI GFS Op runs that always seems to stay there, ECM 12Z and JMA 12Z are cool, unsettled and windy throughout.

I guess you were under a rock for winter 2009/10 then, the coldest winter since 1979 nationwide and in scotland/northern ireland since 1962/63, the winter was exceptional for long lasting persistent cold, and now with the milder weather dominating the past winter is looking even more impressive as the current weather patterns are much more common in the winter months. GFS 06Z doesn't give heavy snowfall down here like previous runs but the risk is still there just need LP to dig slightly further southwards, some lovely wintry convection and lovely cloudscapes in a cold northwesterly airstream look very likely though. I think we could all say (apart from one or two that would be a much better scenario than we have currently with miserable overcast nothing weather.

LOL, you and bottesford really come across as people who really hate cold weather, i'm glad im not like you two, comes across as kind of like the christmas grinch, being miserable at other peoples happiness. ' April can deliver snowcover even if brief, i'm sure in October you wouldn't care if warm setups only produced temps of 20C by day instead of the more intense heat in the summer.

There are two in instances of potential for heavy snowfall in the south and midlands on GFS 06Z, be gone when the sun comes up though but if you want to go sledging set your alarm clocks for 6 am and go out and enjoy the snow cover before it melts quickly in the strong late March/earlyApril sun http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Yes as mr data says snowfall in April is not rare though it lasting long on the ground away from the north is, you are more likely to see snowfall in April than November, min averages are very close between them two months showing just how cold nights can be in April with much shorter nights, runs still looking unsettled but like on GFS 06Z lows push further south and pull some arctic air into the mix some nice showery April days with lovely cloudscapes would be possible.

Don't be silly paranoid August snowfall away from the scottish mountains is VERY UNLIKELY in the UK. I seriously thought it was an early Aprils fools joke but all the online sites are carrying the story, it seems the real suckers are them, how the hell can a small bunch of forecasters forcast a BBQ summer when a big Professional organisation couldnt is beyond me, very irresponsible forecast by positive weather solutions(who the hell are they anyway), lets hope they get as much stick as the UKMO did when it will so obviously fail.

I would give up any hope of any prolonged cold spells 10123, very brief colder shots as lows moves through is the best you can hope for, thank god it isnt winter now as the charts would make me very depressed indeed, we are now back to the usual straw clutching for brief azores high ridging northwards to bring us any hope of more settled warmer weather in extreme FI.

:lol: very funny April fools joke, they get earlier every year though :o http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

Dreadful runs with an very active atlantic jet, all runs are mild ish for mid week with a southerly flow but also potentially very wet becoming cooler from friday but still with only the odd drier cooler slot, really a case of seriously planning any outdoor days to try and fit in with the dry slots but with an active atlantic that is a nightmare because dry slots can become wet at very short notice

lol i love how people use the phrase increasing signs after seeing one GFS extreme FI run, any signs of warmer more settled weather is tenuous at best. Weatheronline summing it up nicely i feel, yes by the end of the week we will all be looking back at the nice settled weather in most of the winter, atlantic LP coming up against HP to our east is a disaster for western areas especially with fronts becoming slow moving before the next one moves in.

Perhaps he had better things to do, quite a temperature difference you had in NZ last year JO7 with a high of 38C and a low of -5C , fat chance of me ever recording 38C

Lovely foggy and cold morning, min 2C, sun starting to melt away the fog should be a much better day than yesterday, as usual cooler air delivers much better weather than mild TM air

How people forget the above average February rainfall wise and its been wet today with plenty more to come based on tonights model output. Not the most encouraging summer forecast by weatheronline it must be said. http://www.weatheron...it&DAY=20100320