Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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It's been so warm for early April today esp for central/east midlands that even average temps are going to feel much colder, a 10C temperature drop by tomorrow even higher for the east/se.
Having trouble with the charts on wetterzentrale but just checked meteociel and it looks like northern britain could see some of the white stuff by Easter Monday April 17th, looks like a northerly sourced spell of weather for a few weeks at least, don't mind colder weather, keeps a lid on those loud anti social types.
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2 hours ago, Surrey said:
Hardly looks bad next week away from the far north. High pressure never far away and the cold air never really makes it to the south. So while it will be cooler, I don't think it will be anything near as bad as it was showing.
Best get use to it as summer is just round the corner the very deep depths of the gfs even show our first attempted plume!! That will change of course
A temp drop of around 10C from Monday is a pretty big drop and will be a shock to the system for most people, a much cooler week ahead, looks like some extensive northerly blocking setting itself up for the rest of April, this doesn't guarantee cold but it definately increases the chances, there is no sign of a plume in the very deep depths of GFS as you say.
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2 hours ago, comet said:
A very cold looking set of gefs once this lovely weather breaks down.
Lovely warm sunny days followed by lovely colder weather with some nice crisp frosty mornings, bring it on.
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On 18/03/2017 at 07:43, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
had it here, but didn't lie,
Probably didn't lie IYBY even in Jan 1963.
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Great to see the persistent trend for high pressure to retrogress to our northwest later in the week/next weekend onwards, been showing up for days on GFS OP's with this mornings ECM 00Z picking it up, would be very foolish to dismiss this trend just because it's not what you want in April, previous history has shown lots of times Northerly outbreaks occurring in mid April after a fine settled first week, whether thats cold and wintry or just cool and dull.
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Interesting week to come with colder more brighter conditions with night frost and the risk of wintry showers taking over before a chilly easterly for midlands/south next weekend with more cloud cover, nice change from this mild dross with temps not varying much between day & night.
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20 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Cold Cold Cold , for mid next week if the gfs and ecm is to be believied!
Great for snow lovers and for storm lovers too...
Potential for heavy snow over the cotswolds/peak district next thursday on GFS 12Z.
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GFS 12Z showing a cold ENE'ly next weekend into the following week.
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Remember late April last year? That day of the Arctic plunge produced one of the best days of weather in my weather memory. It had everything- hail, sleet, snow, thunder and some beautiful cloudscapes.
We've had months and months now of a mainly HP dominated weather pattern. Time for a change now.
Completely agree, HP is just giving us mainly cloudy skies like it did today, time for something alot more interesting, don't get why people love temps around 14C when you can get those kind of temps anytime of year in the UK, best to take advantage of cold arctic airmasses over greenland before they retreat for the summer, waiting until November for another cold spell when March on average is the fourth coldest month of the year is depressing, not sure why some are happy with ECM 12Z, latter stages would just bring dull chilly days, easterlies aren't great in Spring with a cold North Sea even if its above average.
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This is a rant thread so here it goes,
What an absolute joke the MOD thread has become lately, we are still at a stage where wintry weather is still very possible yet the same people who were moaning about anticyclonic weather are now celebrating a dreadful cloudfest HP cell with absolutely no interesting diurnal temperature ranges at all, vile model output currently with no interesting weather at all.
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GFS 12Z showing a nice arctic northwesterly for a few days later next week
, beforehand just more mild cloudy rubbish i'm afraid with rain at times.
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Nice to see any warm up very brief now for mid next week before cooling down nicely next friday onwards, looking like we could see some wintry showers and night frost for mid to late March.
GFS 18Z building heights strongly over greenland just like GEM 12Z and a direct arctic northerly, lets hope this trend continues.
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On 28/02/2017 at 14:09, Gavin Plummer said:
I really can't wait until we get our first blistering heatwave, the sooner the better!!
Summer in the UK doesn't really get going until mid June onwards, long long wait for your blistering heatwave if at all.
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Just now, carsey said:
18z run looks a lot different to the 12z from around 180hrs. Azores much further west allowing the cold to drop down through Europe to the East.
No surprise really as GFS 12Z OP was a big warm outlier on the GFS 12Z ensembles for later next week.
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7 hours ago, winterof79 said:
Ensembles not without interest today trending colder than average with some increasing cold clusters occurring too
Always interested in this data as a precursor to colder weather
If it is March when we see our coldest period of weather of the winter, so be it. There isn't a lot we can do to reverse it
So true, find it strange how some feel March 1st means a sudden switch to Spring warmth, March can be a very chilly disturbed month, looks to me like a rather cold unsettled first half to March with temps around average at best.
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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
The Gfs 00z shows some mild early spring weather later in the run with a swly flow.
Yeah with heavy rain and the risk of localised flooding.
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GEM 12Z builds high pressure over scandinavia.
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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Afternoon All
Ukmo says no to the toppler !
Could you please expand on what you mean by that Steve?
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:
I can't see very much mild weather on the Ecm 12z run, for the most part it looks rather cold with 526 / 528 dam across the uk next week. It's a generally unsettled run too..not spring like at all..a chilly start to march. :- )
Height rises to the NE with scandi high forming it looks increasingly blocked later with the Atlantic held at bay.
Yes frosty ECM 12Z is a very encouraging run, we've had a real lack of cold active weather the past few months, tomorrow and next week could deliver some exciting weather esp for northerners, i want to see the jetstream edge further south on future runs and a growing scandy high maybe giving some battleground events.
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On 21/02/2017 at 18:12, Matthew Wilson said:
Can't we concentrate on Summer first?
But yes from what I gather if we have a weak El Niño going into winter is a good roll of the dice( 5 or 6) Solar minimum begins around 2019 but late this year would be well on its way so we could score that with a 4 maybe? A easterly QBO should be here by late this year also. I agree that a cold winter should come within the next 3 years. Just depends on how all the many variables interact with each other to where the highs and lows sit in relation to the Uk.
Thanks Matthew for your very helpful reply.
Yes i think the next few winters could deliver more in the way of active wintry weather for us snow starved midlanders/southerners though still ending up near average overall but showing hints of whats to come, think our best chance of a very cold winter will be in the early to mid 20's.
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3 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:
A weak El Niño looking probable for April through August from a forecast issued on the 20th February
Weak to moderate El Nino would enhance the UK's chances of a colder 2017/18 winter?......And with sun spot activity forecasted to be low from now on surely the run of above average winters for the UK has to end in the next five years or so?
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28 minutes ago, Snipper said:
I am sure the models and the so called coldies could see a cold snap in a bonfire.
Let us now get on with spring.
You are far more likely to see winter synoptics in April than in mid winter, Spring in the UK isn't one long warm season, hopefully some cold Springs will stop this notion that Spring is that warm, it really isn't, just the past 30 years run of above average Spring's has skewed people's perceptions, most people don't go looking for cold in August so why should they warmth in February.
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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:
It was pretty pathetic wasn't it. Anyone would have thought we had just suffered a month of sub zero temperatures and blizzards
To be fair that isn't at all likely in any british winter nationwide even in the 1962/63 winter some places reached just above 0C max temp at times, still very unprofessional of her though.
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23 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
At the risk of sounding churlish I'm not seeing anything particularly exciting about the 12z GFS for coldies. Just being honest mind you, happy to be proved wrong if anyone has a different view.
Big improvement for next week compared to GFS OP's this past weekend which were showing the dreaded high just to our south and mild air dominating, at least this run has a short cold northerly shot mid next week, as Ali says GEFS looking very promising for us cold weather fans.
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Great for snow lovers and for storm lovers too...
Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Been a much cooler week since Sunday's taste of Summer, as we go into Easter weekend remaining on the chilly side with limited sunshine, tuesday onwards it looks like we'll be picking up some arctic air from the northeast which should give cool clearer days and the increasing risk of night air frost, ECM/GEM 12Z showing some very impressive northerly height rises, all in all not a bad outlook.