Eugene

Been a much cooler week since Sunday's taste of Summer, as we go into Easter weekend remaining on the chilly side with limited sunshine, tuesday onwards it looks like we'll be picking up some arctic air from the northeast which should give cool clearer days and the increasing risk of night air frost, ECM/GEM 12Z showing some very impressive northerly height rises, all in all not a bad outlook.

It's been so warm for early April today esp for central/east midlands that even average temps are going to feel much colder, a 10C temperature drop by tomorrow even higher for the east/se. Having trouble with the charts on wetterzentrale but just checked meteociel and it looks like northern britain could see some of the white stuff by Easter Monday April 17th, looks like a northerly sourced spell of weather for a few weeks at least, don't mind colder weather, keeps a lid on those loud anti social types.

A temp drop of around 10C from Monday is a pretty big drop and will be a shock to the system for most people, a much cooler week ahead, looks like some extensive northerly blocking setting itself up for the rest of April, this doesn't guarantee cold but it definately increases the chances, there is no sign of a plume in the very deep depths of GFS as you say.

Lovely warm sunny days followed by lovely colder weather with some nice crisp frosty mornings, bring it on.

Probably didn't lie IYBY even in Jan 1963.

Great to see the persistent trend for high pressure to retrogress to our northwest later in the week/next weekend onwards, been showing up for days on GFS OP's with this mornings ECM 00Z picking it up, would be very foolish to dismiss this trend just because it's not what you want in April, previous history has shown lots of times Northerly outbreaks occurring in mid April after a fine settled first week, whether thats cold and wintry or just cool and dull.

Interesting week to come with colder more brighter conditions with night frost and the risk of wintry showers taking over before a chilly easterly for midlands/south next weekend with more cloud cover, nice change from this mild dross with temps not varying much between day & night.

Potential for heavy snow over the cotswolds/peak district next thursday on GFS 12Z.

GFS 12Z showing a cold ENE'ly next weekend into the following week.

Completely agree, HP is just giving us mainly cloudy skies like it did today, time for something alot more interesting, don't get why people love temps around 14C when you can get those kind of temps anytime of year in the UK, best to take advantage of cold arctic airmasses over greenland before they retreat for the summer, waiting until November for another cold spell when March on average is the fourth coldest month of the year is depressing, not sure why some are happy with ECM 12Z, latter stages would just bring dull chilly days, easterlies aren't great in Spring with a cold North Sea even if its above average.

This is a rant thread so here it goes, What an absolute joke the MOD thread has become lately, we are still at a stage where wintry weather is still very possible yet the same people who were moaning about anticyclonic weather are now celebrating a dreadful cloudfest HP cell with absolutely no interesting diurnal temperature ranges at all, vile model output currently with no interesting weather at all.

GFS 12Z showing a nice arctic northwesterly for a few days later next week , beforehand just more mild cloudy rubbish i'm afraid with rain at times.

Nice to see any warm up very brief now for mid next week before cooling down nicely next friday onwards, looking like we could see some wintry showers and night frost for mid to late March. GFS 18Z building heights strongly over greenland just like GEM 12Z and a direct arctic northerly, lets hope this trend continues.

Summer in the UK doesn't really get going until mid June onwards, long long wait for your blistering heatwave if at all.

No surprise really as GFS 12Z OP was a big warm outlier on the GFS 12Z ensembles for later next week.

So true, find it strange how some feel March 1st means a sudden switch to Spring warmth, March can be a very chilly disturbed month, looks to me like a rather cold unsettled first half to March with temps around average at best.

Yeah with heavy rain and the risk of localised flooding.

GEM 12Z builds high pressure over scandinavia.

Could you please expand on what you mean by that Steve?

Yes frosty ECM 12Z is a very encouraging run, we've had a real lack of cold active weather the past few months, tomorrow and next week could deliver some exciting weather esp for northerners, i want to see the jetstream edge further south on future runs and a growing scandy high maybe giving some battleground events.

Thanks Matthew for your very helpful reply. Yes i think the next few winters could deliver more in the way of active wintry weather for us snow starved midlanders/southerners though still ending up near average overall but showing hints of whats to come, think our best chance of a very cold winter will be in the early to mid 20's.

Weak to moderate El Nino would enhance the UK's chances of a colder 2017/18 winter?......And with sun spot activity forecasted to be low from now on surely the run of above average winters for the UK has to end in the next five years or so?

You are far more likely to see winter synoptics in April than in mid winter, Spring in the UK isn't one long warm season, hopefully some cold Springs will stop this notion that Spring is that warm, it really isn't, just the past 30 years run of above average Spring's has skewed people's perceptions, most people don't go looking for cold in August so why should they warmth in February.

To be fair that isn't at all likely in any british winter nationwide even in the 1962/63 winter some places reached just above 0C max temp at times, still very unprofessional of her though.

Big improvement for next week compared to GFS OP's this past weekend which were showing the dreaded high just to our south and mild air dominating, at least this run has a short cold northerly shot mid next week, as Ali says GEFS looking very promising for us cold weather fans.