Eugene

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif Yes looking like staying dry, not sure where all these thundery showers are going to come from to be honest looks like being HP dominated which isnt great for convection, at this range though for the weekend early next week we might see some scattered ones but nothing that widespread, looking like turning cooler from early next week, i'm ignoring GFS 06Z at this point and going with other models and GFS 00Z. Might be some rural fog in inland areas end of the week once HP centres over us and if the cloud breaks up, more of a mild fog type though but even temps of 8C at night will feel cool compared to the very warm and muggy daytime.

Me neither gavin, i feel the very dry Spring is really a bad omen for the summer ahead, we've seen so many times how very dry springs lead to wet summers, i'm a great believer in the balancing out theory so we will make up for all the very dry conditions soon and summer is soon. The next week could be one of the warmest and driest spells of the May to September period IMO

Not in the daytime it hasnt felt cold at all once the sun is up it feels warm, nights have been very cold for the time of year yes. Even with cool 850's ive seen many people out in shorts in the morning and even some without any top on, males unfortunately.

The persistence of northerly blocking is incredible it was very strange last thursday morning seeing a hoar frost in the countryside in mid May Air frost is very rare in mid May in the midlands. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png Strange that the ground in the countryside in warwickshire is as dry as a bone and the only moisture is in the grass during early mornings from the frost

It will dominate until November when after 7 near average to below average months people will be very excited by the winter ahead then suddenly on December 1st patterns change back to very mild and we record a very mild winter this initially gives mass disappointment but eventually people are happy towards the end of the winter as their hopes are raised for summer 2011 after the stinker of summer 2010 only for patterns to revert to cool after a very warm April/early May to give another stinker of a summer 5 poor summers in a row and people will be severely bashing the UKMO for their UK summers getting hotter and drier constant rhetoric ps don't take any of this literally.

I'm surprised of not many are talking of the very cold mins recorded lately, i had 0C at home but -2C in my car thermometer this morning while driving to work in the countryside and thats on a road i'm sure out in valleys near me it reached at least -5C :o It seems people are obsessed with urban mins when just a few miles outside in the countryside its MUCH colder especially away from roads and in valleys which there are lots of in the midlands and wales. Temps 0C or below are incredible to me for mid May yes its mid May now when the nights are only as long as very early August to late July, days are very long now with hardly much darkness so to record 0C or below with not much time for temps to drop is amazing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif - ECM 12Z has got worse since 00Z, not a good chart for sunday thats for sure.

Looks like GFS 12Z OP was a mild outlier for early next week the ensemble mean keeps us in a cool northerly flow into next sunday/monday, just like UKMO 12Z does, the OP is being too progressive. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m7.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m7.gif

Thanks GP for your thoughts even though for summer fans the prospects sound dismal. According to what you just said we might have to write off the whole of the summer with not much improvement even in August, could be worse than the past three summers that had some decent spells in August. We could be in for a very cool July if you thoughts on the mid atlantic ridge returning are correct, that is the kind of pattern that brings cool 850's from the north and some very cool nights even with the chance of local ground frost in rural areas :lol: Yes looks like we may see a brief weak ridge over western europe early next week but not lasting long enough or strong enough to halt atlantic LP systems rolling in.

Yes rainbow it certainly feels very cold this morning down to 0C here , nice morning for March cough i mean May.

Yes in FI which was what it was showing a week ago when i last looked, it doesnt seem to come any nearer , i haven't bothered to come online in the past week it was so bad and its still looking bad in the week ahead, unbelievably another frost this morning, what is going on with our weather patterns, its felt like March the past week and is going to in the week ahead, frosts expected all week long

LOL, well i don't think you'll be so picky this morning, some shocking runs synoptically for May, they would be a dream for winter and i mean an absolute dream with extensive northerly blocking and i do mean extensive unfortunately just cool overcast drizzly rubbish in May.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Prolonged below average temps looking increasingly likely, a very gradual rise in temps towards the end and i do mean very gradual

Yes pit it does feel rather cool this afternoon doesnt it once the cloud rolled over, im astounded at some posts on two saying it feels like summer today, well its been 13C, overcast and not that humid at all, hardly summerlike, well i suppose summerlike if summers of the past three are anything to go by No convectiion all day, another day of hype from convective fans and not much delivered, just doesnt feel warm enough for convective showers and not enough sunshine to trigger them, well not here.

Not sure where you're getting 13C to 16C for monday and tuesday rob with an arctic flow on monday i highly doubt temps that high more like struggling to reach double figues, possible on wednesday but with lots of cloud around but then getting cold again by thursday, poor outlook really and ECM has joined GFS on this now so growing support.

Shockingly poor synoptics on GFS18Z, i dont think anybody can deny the northerly blocking here and its not a dry picture either. http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1322.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.png http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png UKMO's latest monthly update today is grim reading also, i just hope the curse of a good dry April isn't going to bite us like in 2007. It gets even worse if thats possible http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1624.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.png

Yes some modified milder air is likely to topple over the mid atlantic high and come over us BUT this will just bring lots of cloud cover with it so hardly anything to get excited over and looks transient before colder air from the northeast. This FI chart is mega interesting look at the cold airmass and hot airmass just to the east, imagine them colliding . would be some very interesting if/where that occurs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3482.png

Yes and the last three springs before this one have been pretty dry too which raises concerns for the summer ahead, last April was warm and the summer was rather poor outside of the southeast, second half of April 2008 i remember the countryside being dry and looked what happened in that summer, three poor summers in a row for many parts of the UK maybe three isn't the magic number afterall and that four is

Just to prove you shouldnt always judge a month by its CET, apart from a few days earlier this week it hasn't felt that warm at all though, on my walks in the countryside this April my memories have been of cold mornings and cool easterly/northerly winds only the sun's strength making it feel pleasant from mid morning onwards.

Thanks for agreeing with me, yes its not unseasonal at all what is unseasonal is almost 20C in mid February 1998 a good two and a half months later 20C/21C not really that notable at all even as far north as scotland, Trevor Harley who has an excellent weather section on his site his definition of almost 22C for very early April 2001 is a warm start so in no way can 20C/21C be called hot near the end of April when those temps are much more likely.

20C/21C i don't think can be refered to as hot in late April, 29C has been reached in in mid April and 20C is quite easy to achieve in early April, 30C+ has been reached in May. Not much time difference at all between the dates of April 27th/28th and dates in the first 10 days of May and 20C/21C can't really be called hot then.

Yes i completely agree with everything in this post, i can't see the azores high being a major player this summer, the synoptics as you say look very solid and could keep us cool for weeks, a very notable arctic cold plunge for early next week now likely with max temps of only 5C to 9C in alot of parts on sunday/monday which is cold for May. Best place to be next week in the far south and southwest, worse place in the southeast/east. Cloud cover as conor says off the north sea might inhibit frost though at night after the cold plunge sinks southwards into mainland europe from tuesday.

The GFS ensembles indicate a cold first half to May reef so that should help alot with beating that 12 month running low of 9.54C, we need don't need any largely above average prolonged periods between now and end of June.

Mild(15C), muggy, overcast and raining lightly, so happy to see this cold front start to push through, it should feel much more fresher by tonight

Yes snowyowl any snow would be restricted to the highest ground, snow to lower levels is hard to achieve in mid to April nevermind early to mid May, some shocking ensembles though for warm weathewr fans, GFS 06Z OP which is a cold run overall wasn't even the coldest run at times http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png Strange comment when we had even better looking charts and the coldest January since the incredible 1987 and the coldest UK winter for over 30 years since 1962/63 in Scotland and Northern Ireland. http://www.wetterzen...00120100101.gif http://www.wetterzen...00120100105.gif http://www.wetterzen...00120100106.gif http://www.wetterzen...00120100110.gif - Yes we had to make do with these instead, how did we cold weather fans cope