Eugene

Not looking too promising for warm weather fans after sunday( a day indoors me thinks with localised flooding a big risk) it must be said, GP's mid atlantic ridge pattern looks like getting going next week already, check out GEM 00Z for the worst kind of mid atlantic ridging, starting to think GP is some sort of weather god http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Dire 00Z ensembles from GFS i see, really dire with plenty of rainfall, enjoy the next three days including today is what i say because the lovely perfect warm sunny summer weather looks like being replaced by wet and increasingly cooler weather from early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

GFS 12Z FI would produce some horrendous conditions for most people with localised flooding a real risk. A large warm outlier though on the GFS 12Z ensembles with the vast majority of runs cool and unsettled still.

Ok if you want to bend the rules we might as well say -30C has been reached in the UK, i'm sure when the record -27C was recorded some isolated spots in the highlands reached -30C.

We have just had a below average Spring, like i said cold winters very rarely give way to warm Springs in the UK, i think the odds are in favour of a below average summer CET wise too. The coming winter should be very interesting with a good base to start from, the past few winters have been excellent with some exceptional spells of cold weather.

I feel your pain chris, very frustrating when you have holidays planned the weather decides to change seasons on you, you would think in June the weather would be reliable but not in the UK of course, looks like turning autumnal again next week with strong winds and rain, todays temps were only 12C in many parts which is shocking for June. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Diabolical day today, its been raining on and off all day with heavy bursts and it has that horrible dark november feel to things, really the worst start to summer in a long long time, temps immaterial.

Disappointingly that last nights runs downgraded the strength of the high to our northeast, it looks flabby and weak now quickly deterioating letting in weak fronts from the southwest, not sure where these thunderstorms are to come from to be honest, looks like a nondescript southwesterly for the weekend, warm yes but not producing any exciting convective weather before cooler atlantic fresher air and atlantic fronts move in next week. http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack4.gif

Yes gavin i would take more notice of their forecasts than PWS for example but as ever nobody knows what the summer will bring we can all just have an opinion, it's been a great spring so far with an abundance of sunshine and hardly any rain until today.

Sounds nearer to 1985 than 1995. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20100529

Yes and similarily we could just be on the verge of a stinker of a summer, that more likely IMO, wasn't you going for a sub 10C even sub 9C year the other week well sounds like you've changed your mind surely a 1995 summer would mess that up unless you are counting on a cold autumn which is unlikely too.

Just a question for you, would you call it unseasonal heat if it had occured in the first week of June? If no then why do you then call it unseasonal for just over a week before June starts?

Where the hell are BBC getting 30C for tomorrow in London, even there own faxes dont indicate that with a cool front moving down the country, yes it doesn't reach the far south until the end of the day but i would be astounded if 30C is reached on the british mainland tomorrow, i think the heat has gone to their head http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

I'm very surprised by the persistence of northerly blocking, GFS 12Z has it right out to the end with no end in sight,i would be very surprised to see it last that long, it must be unprecedented if it comes off like that. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

lol.....About time someone said the truth apart from me, today is the first widespread day in the midlands above 25C, it isn't unusual at all and the airmass is a very warm one with very light winds and with day length as long as July 20th now its not surprsing at all and i would actually go as far to say even a few months wouldnt make much difference to the maximums probably only a degree or two higher, solar input would be the same and sea temps wouldnt make that much difference in this kind of setup. What i find very surprising is people think 30C is likely tomorrow, well i think its very unlikely as we start to lose this very warm air as its pushed southwards into france, GFS 12Z agrees with temps a degree or two below those today so even if temps are slightly higher than it says it won't be 30C.

LOL.... why so much arguing over 0.1C even if 0.0C wasn't an air frost, thermometers and their positioning could make them 0.5C to 1C warmer than the actual temperature is anyway. This from weatheronline from this morning still going for frosts this week, GFS 00Z i think is on its own in not bringing the cooler air properly south, all other runs do.

Don't forget to blow the cobwebs off it before using it :blink: Hot here but only in my kitchen as ive been cooking Outside a pleasant and warm 23C but again gone cloudy again ruining another day, oh well the clear blue skies should be here from wednesday for a few days at least.

Yes its gone very cloudy here too, its such a shame that cloud is kind of ruining this very warm spell, thats always the risk with these warm highs in spring, i prefer the clear blue skies of last week instead of these dirty looking skies, a high of 23C today.

Well that was wrong the azores high built in from the southwest, yes the mid atlantic ridge pattern that returns next week could actually give us a repeating dry ish cool pattern over the summer, it all depends on whether the jet picks up and tracks southwards, the jetstream really is dead atm and looks like remaining that way.

LOL, daily mail at it again now they are saying it'll be a late May bank holiday washout, alll i see is it getting cooler but still dry no washout at all. http://www.dailymail...t.html?ITO=1490 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html Good realistic forecast by UKMO using the words very warm and rather humid to correctly describe the weather until monday, no mention of the word hot or heatwave at all.

Disappointingly overcast here, i really hope this isn't a cloudy high and that it breaks up, the weather has been great so far the past few weeks with endless sunshine, northerlies are excellent for sunshine in the spring. Worst morning for weeks i would say.

Wow i'm not that far from you and everytime i went for early morning walks in the countryside it has started clear and very cold soon warming up with blazing sunshine and plagues of flies buzzing around next to farmers fields, Aprils sunshine levels were way above and i am sure Mays are near average too maybe above, its been one of the best springs for years, do you moan just for the sake of it conor?

Wow i know recycling is popular but i didnt realise it related to old news stories from positive weather solutions, that hot summer forecast has been knocking around for ages. What a load of nonsense that Daily Mail article is too making it sound like hot weather will last almost all of four months.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rngp1441.gif Possibility of more frosts at night has support from ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, GME and some GFS ensemble members, hardly slammed into FI unless you only look at one run and even with cool 850's no jumpers are required once the sun gets to work getting very strong now in the last third of May.

It may start to get lighter slowly in five weeks but the weather in this country is at its warmest from early July to late August with a very slow cooling into autumn, too many people obsessed with the nights getting longer/nights getting shorter, the weather in this country has a lag so the coldest and warmest weather is after the soltices. Personally i love Spring as its light enough in the evenings to go for long walks in the countryside and it still has that fresh feeling, from mid to late June the humidity picks up and its not as pleasant to walk in, i agree with some the nights are too short in June, i would rather have a more equal share of daylight and darkness. Winter isnt good for walking as you worry about how quick it gets dark, walking in the countryside in pitch black isnt much fun but i love the indoor cosiness of winter darkness.