Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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Alot of hopecasting in the MOD thread for warmth next week from the usual winter doom merchants who always tell us cold never wins.
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2 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:
The ECM is being ridiculous this evening. I'm sure the whole lot will collapse in time for June
Yeah to let in those unsettled and cool atlantic westerlies.
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5 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:
When I made my previous posts I was feeling cold hence my expressing my detestation of the British climate but turns out I've caught flu (very rare for me). However while we didn't have anything severe, just wintry showers, according to my energy meter my heating is costing as much as a winter day (around £2), and that's maintaining the temp of my living room at just 18C, the minimum recommended for someone of my age.
It'll be interesting to experience the outdoor temp as I've been confined to base since Sunday night. Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week. Hopefully we won't have the same experience of the past few years with anything decent always arriving in 2-3 days time, but of course tomorrow never comes.
Forecasts for mid 20's mid next week are frankly nonsense and very misleading, current model output certainly does not support such high temps next week.
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Wow max temps of just 11C for parts next wednesday on GFS 12Z, quite the comedown from mid 20's maximums GFS was showing on tuesday, incredible run for extensive northerly blocking, karyo will be delirious.
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It's what you call interesting weather.
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Could be alot of cloud cover left over from an atlantic frontal system from the southwest next tuesday/wednesday leaving miserable dank conditions, a freshening easterly breeze should start to clear it by thursday, max temps near average for early May (15C) .
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6 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Where did next weeks warm spell go?
The Ecm 00z for example looks much cooler than last evenings 12z.
Sorry frosty but a warm spell for next week has never had any consistent model output, models have swung back and forth between cooler easterlies and warm southeasterlies for days, i keep a close eye on GFS ensembles and even when OP's were showing the possibility of mid 20's C a decent number of ensemble runs didn't, there has just never been any conclusive evidence of a very warm spell next week, i feel too many posters get carried away with warmth and let it cloud their judgement.
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5 hours ago, Andover said:
That Jay Wynne will have some egg on his face after his forecast was last night, looks a good deal cooler for next week going by what I've seen this morning.
Didn't see the forecast so i assume he was forecasting a very warm week next week which is absolutely crazy with even the UKMO runs never going for it and many other runs the day before showing cooler easterlies.
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34 minutes ago, MP-R said:
More often than not it's gone the other way fortunately with unsettled Mays giving forth to much better Junes e.g. 2006 having a dry cool April, a very wet mild May then a fantastic June or even 2005 for that matter. Likewise, I always look at the end of April and start of May as a key period to watch for pattern changes as so often patterns come in two month chunks like the dry March/April 2007 which then turned very wet in May, or March/April 2003 which turned wet into May. A bit like how the 'return of the westerlies' often comes to the fore come late June, that is of course supposing it hasn't already been westerly which so often May and June seem to be nowadays.
I very much doubt this May will be westerly, looking very blocked and on the cool side.
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GFS 06Z ensembles seem very keen on a greenland high towards the end of it's timeframe, ECM 00Z T+240 hrs backs this up big time too.
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
A lot of N blocking being shown on the extended modelling now
Can anyone remember when we last saw blocking as prevalent as this in May?
First half of May 1996.
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Looking like GFS 12Z is too progressive regarding atlantic systems making much inroads into england next weekend, UKMO 12Z/GEM 12Z go for a drier scenario with a strong scandy high blocking any atlantic intrusion leading to a very chilly easterly setting up early May on GEM 12Z, as it's almost May you have to favour a blocking scenario when westerlies are traditionally at their weakest.
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54 minutes ago, MP-R said:
True, but those last few are not far off a warm cyclonic setup with southeasterly like last May I.e. good thunder potential and much needed rainfall from more continental style conditions.
Also not far off a pattern like May 1996.
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On 05/05/2016 at 21:59, damianslaw said:
Remember it well, spring was very late, our garden looked like early April rather than mid May.. very chilly nights and persistant low maxima thanks to a nagging easterly feed and cloud. The combination of being more sheltered allowed clearer breaks during the night helping to produce the low temps, whilst during the day the cloud had no trouble invading across the Pennines.
Things did improve markedly at the tail end of the month heralding a very good June and half decent summer overall. 1996 overall was a cool year much like 2010 with the atlantic in somewhat of a slumber, it followed on the back of the interesting and very dry year of 1995. It was refreshing to see the atlantic come unstuck against large continental blocking features.
Could we see something similar this May?....Looking at GFS 06Z with continental block and cool air aloft with stalling low pressure we could see a chilly first half to May.
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On 17/04/2017 at 07:00, markyo said:
Think i suffer more in spring than in the summer due to hayfever so thus far this spring has been good for me,outlook remains so. I fully understand it's not every bodies cup of tea though!
Ignore the haters, you are as entitled to express your opinion as much as anybody, trust me the weather this Spring so far has suited alot of people not just yourself.
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27 minutes ago, Don said:
Those who want a cold winter for 2017/18 do not want to see another very warm and dry September! Anyway, late spring and summer to think about for the time being.
Don't think that'll concern Summer Sun at all.
Not sure there's much of a link between September's weather and Winter's weather anyway.
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Wednesday looks a very chilly day for late April, heavy showers turning wintry esp on higher ground midlands northwards, even snow starved southerners could see wet flakes of snow esp late afternoon\early evening when we should see sharp drops in temperature, exposed higher parts combined with wind chill factor could feel very raw indeed, this is a direct arctic sourced northerly folks, GEM 12Z is a thing of beauty, greenland/mid atlantic block and winds from a northerly quarter right til the end.
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12 minutes ago, More Snow said:
Crazy charts. 2,3 or 4 months ago the servers would have been bust in here with charts like this. and as much as I love snow and cold its too late for me, don't much fancy waking up at 5 am to an inch of snow that's gone by 7am. its time to get some warmth and turn off the heating.
Wow my heating hasn't come on for a long time, it's hardly been that cold has it with temps mainly in double figures by day and no harsh frosts for over a month.
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GFS 12Z intensifies the greenland high mid next week compared to GFS 06Z, look for some wintry surprises popping up as we reach that timeframe, a collapsing high then allowing a cool and unsettled pattern to take hold looks likely, off topic today was lovely with crisp air and warm sunshine but not overbearing like mid summer, look out for frost tonight south midlands southwards.
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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
ECM has flipped back to a cold plunge towards the end of the month dream charts for coldies 4 to 6 months too late
Long term averages show snowfall in April to be very similar to November, snowfall isn't that uncommon for northern britain even in May, models all seem to show a cold last week to April with greenland/mid atlantic blocking.
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Well tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is still bullish about retrogression and an increasingly cold unsettled extended outlook from the north after next weeks largely settled spell.
GFS 18Z OP finally fully on board frosty with the retrogression theme.
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Looks like GFS 12Z is moving towards ECM with high pressure retrogressing northwestwards, cool and unsettled last week of April seems likely.
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53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also shows High pressure retrogression and a scandi trough with an unsettled Arctic air mass becoming established across the uk from towards the end of next week..late April is looking unseasonably cold with night frosts and even some wintry ppn, especially on hills where there would be snow.
Lets hope it's right frosty, don't think active weather fans could take more HP boredom after what has seemed like it has lasted an eternity, if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.
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Another warm, cloudy and humid benign summer with no weather extremes, that's how boring our climate has become.
The Ecm 00z for example looks much cooler than last evenings 12z.
Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Temps look below average this coming week with some cool uppers being pulled down from the ENE, could feel very raw esp more northern/eastern areas by thursday in a fresh ENE'ly breeze, very disappointing runs for those looking for humid southeasterlies, lets not forget temps and dewpoints were at one point forecasted by the charts to be much higher.