Eugene

lol its been summer for weeks, 26C today in parts. LP spell not going to deliver much rain here before pressure rises

Very warm and sultry day today indeed, still amazed at the lack of people mentioning this last week, i guess they dont take much notice of charts just 850's if they arent hot like last monday they dont take much interest in potential very warm sultry spells

A summer not far away from the average is looking highly likely now though a hot second half to summer could change that, as summer averages are warm that is really nothing to be depressed about if sunshine figures are near average or just above like June, the winter ahead i feel will be near average too which is good as the averages are cool.

24C max here, with no wind it felt very warm indeed and humid, i was one of not many ramping this warmth up for sunday/monday when most were more interested in moaning about charts outside of a reliable timeframe

Well its summerlike now and warming up quickly already 17C, don't see much rain until wednesday to be honest, will feel humid by tomorrow too.

8C min last night, -1C in nearby valley :o...unbelievable the difference in night mins between urban areas and low lying areas in the countryside.

Not supported by its own ensembles though, i think i'll go with ECM 00Z as being the most likely scenario.

Looks very slack to me, if those lows move in i only expect scattered showers and warm sunshine given i missed out on the last setup that looked similar in June i think i`'ll escape with temps around 20C again and hardly any showers. There is a real lack of proper cool wet windy days this summer with strong winds and wet overcast days with temps down to 14C, cant see any weather on the horizon offering any of that. The 546 dam line is now retreating northwards for its usual July hiatus, warmer airmasses starting to take over just to our northwest so even cool looking setups just wont have the cool airmasses to tap into anymore, cool looking setups dont deliver the coolness that the same setups deliver in June especially the first half when the 546 dam line is nearer our shores.

Yes heatwave is overused BUT i feel GFS especially will offer more than just reasonable temps by sunday/monday with temps around 24C in the midlands and i feel a 27C in EA or the SE so not far off what some call a heatwave.

Whatever happens whether a cooler period ahead or staying warm like now you can bet on one one thing the moaners still complaining about no snow in their back yard, a summer or winter month not warm or cold enough and a few warm nights in summer. Sounds like absolute nonsense to me a LIA within a decade.

lol i didnt know you could get cold raw NE'lys in the summer months

The summer is turning out better than i thought to be honest, very dry here in warwickshire with lots of sunshine(sunshine figures are above average) Some people are chasing the unsettled weather when its obvious its being pushed back and even charts that didn't look great at face value for June so far didnt deliver much rain at all here and it turned out warm and sunny, you dont need HP to our east for weeks on end and very warm 850's to get very warm weather in the summer, its like winter though i guess where if its not showing a cold armageddon after December it automatically means its a poor winter when everyone else outside of the forums is saying it was a cold winter.

This looks very nice chart indeed mid 20's C possible in the midlands http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

As ever any unsettled weather is pushed back again, continuing the warm and settled theme from June, the ground is very dry indeed around here, not even plumes deliver notable rain anymore here.

For most of the country outside the SE its really this, One fine day and a day of overcast grey conditions with a few spots of rain.

Its been a let down to be honest, no thunderstorms likely for warwickshire just overcast grey drizzly rubbish, it amazes me how people get excited over just a few very warm days but in winter if its cold for weeks on end like last winter you see lots of moaners saying its a letdown, well this is what you call a let down not the second coldest december on record.

Disappointing day for the west midlands, turned cloudy with bits of rain or drizzle here near Birmingham, to be honest three days with just one sunny day out of the lot and the rest dull with drizzle is a pretty feeble hot snap.

Could start to feel quite sultry again by next weekend looking at some of the runs tonight like ECM, JMA, GEM after some cool 850's we pick up some warmer air from the south, pressure could build even more strongly next weekend than current models are showing.

Good to see you enjoy the weather for once, i think you have a better chance of thunderstorms tomorrow than me in mid warwickshire, though the risk for even you is still open to question, could easily miss them too and they will be very localised and not that severe.

Well i hope GFS 12Z has overplayed the LP's systems in FI, good chance it has. A nice ridge of HP later in the week before all that, should be nice and warm by day but with some cool ish nights, pretty low 850's and light winds give a chance of local rural ground frosts if skies are clear.

Heatwave to me is a spell of extreme heat more than 5 days, 2 days of temps just above 25C arent a heatwave to me, when it really starts to feel uncomfortable indoors and i start to sweat is a heatwave like in the summers of 1995/2003/2006, it feels pleasant today not too hot.

Typical summer pattern really ahead for the UK, ridge of HP from the azores high and LP running west to east just to our north, should be pretty dry for southern UK, its a shame people are obsessed with heat and not how sunny and dry the weather could be, even cool 850's aloft translate to very pleasant weather in sunshine in July.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png Very dry theme, a continuation of June for central areas.

Absolutely spot on my friend, good to see some realistic assessments instead of all the over the top ramping over a one day plume that will just bring cloudy skies to most. You need days and days of a build up of heat for any temps over 30C widely not a really quick plume gone in no time. Nice weather for end of the week though with lots of sunshine.

Looking like a nice pleasant week with some nice sunshine once the cloudy muggy air is pushed away after monday.